A bad result for the government in the latest fortnightly Newspoll, with the Coalition’s two-party lead out from 54-46 to 57-43. The primary votes are 28 per cent for Labor (down three) and 47 per cent for the Coalition (up four). Julia Gillard at least has the consolation that her personal ratings have improved from the previous fortnight’s dismal result, with her approval up three to 31 per cent and disapproval down four to 58 per cent. Tony Abbott’s ratings are unchanged at 32 per cent approval and 58 per cent disapproval, and there is likewise essentially no change on preferred prime minister (Gillard leads 40-37, up from 39-37).
Another consolation for Labor is the possibility that a bit of static might be expected from a poll conducted over the same weekend as a state election such as the one in Queensland. They can be fortified in this view by the fact that their standing improved in this week’s Essential Research poll, the most recent weekly component of which was conducted over a longer period than Newspoll (Wednesday to Sunday rather than Friday to Sunday). Very unusually, given that Essential is a two-week rolling average, this showed a two-point shift on two-party preferred, with the Coalition lead shrinking from 56-44 to 54-46. Given that Essential spiked to 57-43 a fortnight ago, and the sample which sent it there has now washed out of the rolling average, this is not entirely surprising. Labor’s primary vote is up two to 34 per cent, and the Coalition’s is down one to 47 per cent. Further questions featured in the poll cover the economy, its prospects, best party to handle it and personal financial situation (slightly more optimism than six months ago, and Labor up in line with its overall improvement since then), job security, Kony 2012, taking sickies and the impact of the high dollar.
Bushfire Bill
Thanks for your burst about Costello. I only had to see the headline in The Age to get steamed up about his attitude.
Added to the points you have raised, if the PM had cancelled her ‘trip’ to Korea, the msm would have been all over it, with “Crisis in Labor. PM cancels vital conference on nuclear safety.”
[even a nuts-and-bolts phone conversation with Costello was inundated with political sloganeering from the other end.]
I suppose this is who taught O’Dwyer her debating skills, and why she is such a pain in the bum.
victoria:
A lot to take in, but the people seem nice and I think I’ll enjoy it there. Not as much flexibility as my last job (ie no more working from home), but the upside of that is work stays at work.
joe2
But he’s not out there throwing hissies in public.
By the way ABC Morning TV news did report on the AFR story – even showed a close up of the front page and a clip from the Panorama show too.
About 6.10 a.m. this morning it was – didn’t here what was being said, i was at the Gym but could see it on a big screen fairly clearly.
[Scringler
Posted Tuesday, March 27, 2012 at 11:14 pm | Permalink
Port Macquarie, NSW – best climate in Oz
shellbell, BH,
Thanks. It’s an option somewhat down the track but will heed your advice.]
A bit late , but anywhere within a 200 km radius say Taree to Coffs Harbour is God’s own country, very mild winters (we average about 20+c during the day down to about 12+ at night here) I admit I live 50 metres from the ocean, only problem is humidity in February and early March, but the temperature rarely gets over low 30s in the summer. Can very occasionally get a cyclone, about 10 years since we had one I think
here = hear 🙁
Today’s front pages
http://twitpic.com/924j6t Daily Telegraph
http://twitpic.com/924j8d The Age
http://twitpic.com/924jap Advertiser
http://twitpic.com/924jd8 NT News
http://twitpic.com/924jew The Australian
http://twitpic.com/924jgz Herald Sun
http://twitpic.com/924jiz Courier Mail
http://twitpic.com/924jl5 Hobart Mercury
http://twitpic.com/924jmy SMH
http://twitpic.com/924jok The West Australian
NT News from yesterday, showing they’re the star of the News Ltd team
http://twitpic.com/91pgmp
grantplant:
It was probably the segment where they look at the front pages of the papers?
It seems Andrew Robb has had enough and it borderline going rogue. Likewise for Joe Hockey. Barnaby and the Nats are already rogue.
All fun and games. Hardly seems to matter though.
for admirers of Steve Price, shockjock, a jury is out today on whether he defamed a person on 2ue when the word slut was used.
[I wonder if he new this was in the ‘pipeline’ before he moved over to the AFR late last year.]
grantplant, I would imagine not. It would have been pretty hard for him to keep a lid on it, even if he wanted to, when so much work had already been done.
confessions
There are always pros and cons with any changes. A new challenge is always good
On scrolling through the comments last night decided it must be tough in the dining out sections of the community as I see GP has been busy commenting instead of being on his washing up duties
bg
The rifts in the coalition are huge, but being papered over by the great opinion polls. Of course the landslide win to the LNP in Qld helps as well. But i do believe it will only take a bit of pressure such as improved polls for Labor, for all out war in the coalition
[BH @ 1235;
Yes I have Austar too so I can relate to what you are saying entirely. Fortunately NBN comes down my street in about a month so I will have an alternative (yes, this is my nyaaa nyaaa nyaaa moment to Rupert).
Hartigan’s ‘investigation’ was always a Grade A joke.]
I’ve got Foxtel cable too, so I’ll be looking forward to the NBN rollout here, I can assure you. And yes, it will be delicious to give Rupe the finger at last.
In the meantime, I guess I’ll just have to get used to my cable TV watching me, I suppose. (S’ok, folks, just a poor paranoid joke).
What I find fascinating is the Israeli connection. I mean here’s The News hacking operation being run out of a subsidiary company from some bunker in TelAvi and headed by some ex Shin Bet security honcho. And here’s Rupe with his apparent unwavering support for Israel in just about anything it says and does on Fox and his other cable and print outlets. Coincidence?
If I could just add two and two together, I might have concuded that some mutual advantage is involved. Perhaps it’s just the sort of beneficial symbiotic relationship News seems to have developed with Tony Abbott here.
[But he’s not out there throwing hissies in public.]
There is that. Still I think Labor has more to be fearful of dodgy Murdoch than the Chinese, when it comes to the NBN. You have to wonder how much the Fibs will get to close it down.
[It is understood Mr Robb did not consult the leadership before making his remarks.
Shadow attorney-general George Brandis said yesterday that if the government was following an ASIO security assessment ”then I think any government would be very slow to act at variance from the advice of the national security agencies”.
Nationals leader in the Senate Barnaby Joyce said he would have ”a natural inclination to listen to ASIO”.]
http://www.watoday.com.au/opinion/political-news/coalition-disavows-robb-on-huawei-20120327-1vwya.html#ixzz1qMJ5CrJ8
smithe
There are no coincidences. The dots are easily joined. Only problem for us plebs is that they are usually well hidden from view
Confessions @ 1258 – yes that would be it now I think about it.
Darn
Seriously. Mitchell said that?
I have next to zero confidence in Neil Mitchell’s predictions, but FWIW he thinks Murdoch is finished in light of the report in the AFR today.
good grief! How did my response appear before Darn’s statement???
oh shit time warp
mari @ 1255,
Thanks for that info.
+++
RE the AFR expose on Rupert. Hell’s bells! This must have legs. Surely. Royal Commission anyone?
[Yes I have Austar too so I can relate to what you are saying entirely. Fortunately NBN comes down my street in about a month so I will have an alternative (yes, this is my nyaaa nyaaa nyaaa moment to Rupert).]
grantplant – I is cryin’, you lucky sod. Quite a few Bludgers will now get the NBN so keep us in the know about it please. Are you in the Hunter or MNC?
Darn
Btw 3aw is owned by Fairfax, and the AFR is a fairfax publication.
[grantplant
Posted Wednesday, March 28, 2012 at 8:50 am | Permalink
Smithe @ 1227;
I suppose I can now expct a visit from Ronnie and Reggie for this post, too.
Well either that or Monty Python’s Pirahna Brothers
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C-FDW1shmqA
BH @ 1235;
Yes I have Austar too so I can relate to what you are saying entirely. Fortunately NBN comes down my street in about a month so I will have an alternative (yes, this is my nyaaa nyaaa nyaaa moment to Rupert).
Hartigan’s ‘investigation’ was always a Grade A joke.]
Getting exciting isn’t it the NBN coming, think you live in Coffs region I am just a little south. BTW are you interested in a MCN PB meeting maybe in early May, would be in Port ? If you are ask William for my email address
[1247 grantplant
Posted Wednesday, March 28, 2012 at 9:03 am | Permalink
Joe @ 1245;
An interesting point about the AFR publishing all this dirt on Rupert’s clandestine attacks on potential competitors after a 4 year investigation is that it is now edited by an ex-OO economics writer – one Michael Sutchbury no less.
I wonder if he knew this was in the ‘pipeline’ before he moved over to the AFR late last year.]
The short answer is that it must have been, grantplant. Unless the laws of physics are different round at News, a 4-year investigation takes 4 years.
And Sutchbury, as the new Honcho, must have been briefed on all ongoing significant investigative efforts when he took the job.
One wonders what input, if any, he had on the final product.
victoria:
Little by little, bit by bit, the cracks on the coalition are being exposed.
[t seems Andrew Robb has had enough and it borderline going rogue]
bluegreen – Yes, but it’s not a good look for Robb tho as he and Julie Bishop accepted a trip to China at the company’s expense. ASIO has given the Govt. advice and Robb is screaming that the Govt. is crazy for accepting that advice. Robb might be in a bit of bother with his latest outburst.
Pay tv Piracy now in Age. For some reason, in the business section not crime round up.
http://www.theage.com.au/business/pay-tv-piracy-hits-murdoch-20120328-1vxfw.html
And it has happened in the West
Liberal party mouthpiece in the West and on Red Neck Radio, 6PR in Perth, has jumped ship in Tony Abbott.
In an astounding piece – given his pedigree – under the heat “Newman triumph shows up Abbott’s inadequacy” he does his usual hatchet job on the PM but the interesting bit comes towards the end.
Talking of Abbott he says:
“He is a great wrecking ball, but he will need to show Australians much more if he hopes to stop a Labor revival, let alone replicate Mr Newman’s decapitation of his opponents.
“Make no mistake. Such a victory should be possible, (and this is the best bit)………but it is unlikely under Mr Abbott on his current course.”
While he has not come out and saying he wants Abbott dumped, this is a clear a message as possible that this pathetic ex-editor of the West can come as close to saying Labor can win with the JG and the Liberals lose with Abbott.
So, for those who think Labor is finished some 18 months out the election, this Liberal party fog horn, thinks otherwise.
Murray is not stupid and has good contacts with the Liberal party I am told so there must be some anxiety.
He adds, talking of why Abbott is not making any inroads:
“It is a lesson we have seen often recently and which will now consume many restless hours for the hardheads in the Federal Liberal Party who wonder whether the electorate’s resistance to Mr Abbott might end up breathing some life into Ms Gillards’ government.”
Abbott will not go tomorrow but they are getting worried – if not very worried.
The longer Gillard and Labor stay on their feet and Abbott continues his Dr No routine the better for Labor.
The Noalition epithet is biting.
BH
They are not particularly functional. It must be pretty demoralising for Hockey, Robb et al not being able to produce any new policy for the election in a few years time and yet have to find tens of billions in cuts.
zoidlord@1250 – I beg to differ. Major parties don’t last forever and I think the ALP is in real trouble for a number of reasons. Examples of major parties effectively dying of irrelevance include the Progressive Conservatives in Canada and, earlier, the Liberal Party in the UK. The UK Liberals (as the Liberal Democrats) are in the midst of a one term revival but will be cast back into near irrelevance after the current term. The Australian Democrats looked like a viable third force but couldn’t make up their mind whether they were a left wing party or a centrist one. Eventually Australian voters saw no reason to support them and went to the Greens or a major party.
Labor has no guarantee of continued relevance. Like many, I vote for it because I see it as the least worst choice. Many other voters see no difference and regard the Coalition as being more competent and therefore more worthy of their vote. I think there is a real probability (less than 50% but not a lot less) that Labor fades into minor party status over the next decade, giving the Coalition a free run.
The Huawei saga shows that China Business Entities still have a lot to learn about brand creation & management when they go global
“One wonders what input, if any, he had on the final product.”
Maybe this bit where they, pre-emptively, let the bastards of the hook?
[At the time, Australia had no effective laws against pay TV piracy. None of the actions that followed would be illegal, senior lawyers told the Financial Review.]
Wow, Brandis and Joyce agreeing re the ASIO alert to the Govt is something new. Has there been any comment from Abbott or are they getting in before he can open his mouth about this.
@Steve777/1284
I disagree and raise you UK/Canada is not Australia.
Also if you look at a number of Elections in AU including 2007 election shows that either party has a chance to come back.
@BH/@Mari/etc
In regards to NBN – I might have a chance to get FTTH as I have 3 Points of Interconnect ~30km away from me.
Sutchbury wouldn’t have been able to stop the story even if he were to try.
It also seems very unlikely that the Government didn’t know this was in the works all along – who knows what else will come out as well ?
The ditching hartigan for williams part of murdoch’s preparation for all of this?
This is brilliant…. Campbell Newman getting Blighs husband to unravel the climate change department he helped to setup. Apparantly hubby is squeeling like a stuck pig about it and there are rumours he has packed up his office. Read more here:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/elections/campbell-newman-orders-anna-blighs-husband-greg-withers-to-kill-green-schemes/story-fnbsqt8f-1226311864712
Steve
you need a grasp of history.
Labor was out of power for well over two decades federally. It didn’t die.
In Victoria, prior to 1980, Labor had only been in power at the state level for a TOTAL of about three years (out of over one hundred), with its longest stretch of government being less than two (from memory). It didn’t die.
Yes, minor parties with less history and less roots in the community have fallen over.
Labor has proven – again and again – that it can weather time in the wilderness and can rebuild.
BTW Campbell has a point, why does QLD need a climate change department if Gillards great big carbon tax is apparantly going to fix all our climate change problems?
Fantatic, simply fantastic – The Mandela Archives – More than 1,900 documents, photographs and films -An online archive of South Africa’s first black president has been launched in a project to preserve and digitise thousands of documents, photographs and videos about him
http://archives.nelsonmandela.org/
GeeWizz
In some circles, Newman’s actions would not be described as ‘brilliant’ but as ‘vindictive.’
A bit of a contrast with his display of magnanimity on election night, and probably a better guide to his true character.
BH & Mari,
Yes I am in Coffs Harbour. Right in the middle of the first NBN roll out around here no less. 🙂
[who knows what else will come out as well ?]
I’m thinking horse head in the bed.
http://www.theage.com.au/business/pay-tv-piracy-hits-murdoch-20120328-1vxfw.html
plus AFR etc
Poroti if you are around Hallelujah is now really on the starting blocks now
Steve777@1284
We all know the problems, the solutions are harder to come by.
That is why Romney said recently, “All other believers in political parties believe in ideology whereas conservatives do things” or words to that effect.
How easy is the path of the conservative – it is essentially the status quo.
The world left to them would have us all working in sweat shops for 20 cents a day.
If you know your history, as I am sure you do, it was because years ago, people were fed up with the conservative idea that they opposed it.
Interestingly the Liberal party essentially came into existence to stop the Labour party coming into existence as the meant people were getting above their station.
The progressive side of politics always does it tough. Today is not exception.
I agree with you that Labor does really need to do a rethink – there are so many such as the Archie Bunker voters – who see their interests being better met by the rich.
This is not a local phenomenon as working class conservatives are everywhere.
But how to get their vote and keep it? Clearly they love the “My Kitchen Rules” approach to politics which made Rudd so popular. Trouble is how does one sort out populism from performance?
In many countries of South America and Africa any number of popular leaders and any amount of poverty.
Hard to get the masses to agree with one!
[grantplant
Posted Wednesday, March 28, 2012 at 9:57 am | Permalink
BH & Mari,
Yes I am in Coffs Harbour. Right in the middle of the first NBN roll out around here no less.]
No wonder you are happy, I will be a little bit behind you.
Was in Coffs picking up and putting daughter back on the plane to Sydney last weekend, also will be up there later in the week, good shops my OH grew up there.
Are you interested in meeting other PBs?
BH, Julie Bishop loves her ‘paid for’ trips, doesn’t she?