Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition

A bad result for the government in the latest fortnightly Newspoll, with the Coalition’s two-party lead out from 54-46 to 57-43. The primary votes are 28 per cent for Labor (down three) and 47 per cent for the Coalition (up four). Julia Gillard at least has the consolation that her personal ratings have improved from the previous fortnight’s dismal result, with her approval up three to 31 per cent and disapproval down four to 58 per cent. Tony Abbott’s ratings are unchanged at 32 per cent approval and 58 per cent disapproval, and there is likewise essentially no change on preferred prime minister (Gillard leads 40-37, up from 39-37).

Another consolation for Labor is the possibility that a bit of static might be expected from a poll conducted over the same weekend as a state election such as the one in Queensland. They can be fortified in this view by the fact that their standing improved in this week’s Essential Research poll, the most recent weekly component of which was conducted over a longer period than Newspoll (Wednesday to Sunday rather than Friday to Sunday). Very unusually, given that Essential is a two-week rolling average, this showed a two-point shift on two-party preferred, with the Coalition lead shrinking from 56-44 to 54-46. Given that Essential spiked to 57-43 a fortnight ago, and the sample which sent it there has now washed out of the rolling average, this is not entirely surprising. Labor’s primary vote is up two to 34 per cent, and the Coalition’s is down one to 47 per cent. Further questions featured in the poll cover the economy, its prospects, best party to handle it and personal financial situation (slightly more optimism than six months ago, and Labor up in line with its overall improvement since then), job security, Kony 2012, taking sickies and the impact of the high dollar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,757 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition”

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  1. @GP/1199

    Yet you want all media to be pro Coalition ?

    Shouldn’t you rephrase you’re post there to include “any party”?

  2. Confessions did NSW suffer a similar result or was it just how the cards fell in QLD? I still struggle to accept the LNP ended up with 77 seats but I think it’s mainly due to the intensity of the swing in SEQ where many of the seats are. That and the fact KAP fractured the vote in regional QLD and took so many votes from Labor. Added to that a lot of folks just voted 1 because there didn’t seem to be much point preferencing.

    It was virtually a perfect storm.

  3. [No media outlet should be ‘pro Labor’ – that is the inherent imbecility of your argument. The media should freely criticise the government persistently and enthusiastically. That is its job. ]

    Then be consistent. No media outlet should be pro-‘Liberal’.

    Yet, if the Liberals oil their way back into power, do you think the media will suddenly switch from being Coalition boosters? Of course not. They will be spinning just as hard for the team as they do now, only from a position of defence, while still attacking the good guys on the progressive side of politics.

    [Commercial radio stations mostly have opinionated talking heads in relevant programs, they are not journalists and are entitled to their positions. That their is an apparent deficit of pro Labor shock jocks proves that the market doesn’t demand one, let alone support the idea.]

    Rubbish. You don’t know that, nor can you prove it. Melbourne had an ultra-right radio station for a while, a cousin of Sydney’s hate-emanater 2GB, the Great Big joke. It went out of business in a spectacular way, swithced off half way through a news bulletin, owing $13 million. http://www.theage.com.au/business/media-and-marketing/failed-radio-station-in-debt-to-celebrities-20120327-1vvtp.html#ixzz1qIQqWww4 So there’s no market for soft fascist media in Melbourne. Who’s to say a progressive station wouldn’t be in demand there?

    What it boils down to, is the Noalition NEED a media field that’s 90 per cent rigged their way. Otherwise they’d be finished… If we had 90 per cent of the media in the country calling out the so-called Liberals 24/7 for having a lying leader, wanting to fauk employees over, for plans to take from the poor to give to the rich, for supporting billionaires and multinationals at the expense of public health and education, for being riddled with furitcakes and ideological wingnuts, how long do you think the miserable party would be viable? One month? Half a year? An informed populace, whipped relentlessly into hostility by an agenda-media would finish your ragtag of ideological misfits in no time.

  4. To whoever posted this earlier (was it you rossmore?) a hearty well done.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0clg2m-ePd0

    What an expose.

    A News subsidiary employing hackers to destroy the security systems of a rival internet broadcaster. What a story.

    As if the SeweRoo isn’t in enough trouble already. This seems like straight-out deliberate Industrial sabotage. And sabotage for commercial gain, to boot.

    Someone is going to do serious porridge for this.

  5. [What it boils down to, is the Noalition NEED a media field that’s 90 per cent rigged their way. Otherwise they’d be finished…]

    They need News Ltd in particular.

    And for their part, News Ltd needs the Tories, to shut-down the NBN, the biggest threat to their effective cable monopoly profits. And the Tories clearly need them, for the reasons you elaborate cuppa.

    It’s a sort of political symbiosis.

    It ain’t rocket science.

  6. [I avoid radio other than the ABC Cuppa.]

    As a Liberal you should be in clover then. As you would be likewise if you decided to switch to commercial radio. Enjoy, knowing that the party you support is the only party with media advocacy. A shame for what is our basically two-party system, but there you go, it’s just too bad. A trifling matter really.

  7. [It ain’t rocket science.]

    It ain’t. Yet it still goes over the head of Geriatric Person. He thinks News Limited is just “holding the government to account energetically and enthusiastically”. It’s never occurred to him to admit that the real game is to destroy the government, not just criticise it.

  8. Well the News Empire seems quite proud of its boat that it can make or break a Government, but at last we seem to be facing the probability of a Government – well, a Parliament to be more accurate – in the UK breaking them.

    Biter bit, I say.

    And what a happy, well-overdue sight it is, too.

  9. Costellos a toser. When States kicked out Libs/Nats we were told by Howard/costoser, it was a state matter, according to Costoser flip that when its Labor voted out. Despite this poll which is a snap shot of 990 ppl thinking on a Qld election wkend, it was time for Govt to be refreshed.

    Now if PM doesn’t have her communication group disputing these furphies everyday until the election and fighting for the record of Labors terrific credentials …. Well goodluck to them.

    They (Labor) makes it incredibly hard as a supporter to keep on sticking up for them, as they don’t celebrate and educate the communities about the good Labor has done. In comparison Libs/Nats say no, are negative and have huge support because their message is a three worded slogan + shockjock inspired rallies on three worded slogan + media he said she said reporting on three worded slogan. Marketing is the Coalition forte, good economics Labor, but poor marketing.

  10. Smithe @ 1212;

    Talk about the biter being bit the Australian Financial Review has exposed News Ltd’s dirty underhand dark arts in Australia today;

    [“A secret unit within Rupert Murdoch’s News Corporation promoted a wave of high-tech piracy in Australia that damaged Austar, Optus and Foxtel at a time when News was moving to take control of the Australian pay TV industry.

    The piracy cost the Australian pay TV companies up to $50 million a year and helped cripple the finances of Austar, which Foxtel is now in the process of acquiring.

    A four-year investigation by The Australian Financial Review has revealed a global trail of corporate dirty tricks directed against competitors by a secretive group of former policemen and intelligence officers within News Corp known as Operational Security.”]

    http://www.afr.com/p/business/marketing_media/pay_tv_piracy_hits_news_OV8K5fhBeGawgosSzi52MM

    An excellent piece of investigative journalism this. 14,000 emails as evidence no less. Let’s hope this leads to SewerRoo and his minions having to answer questions from a witness box.

    It will also be a test of just how useful/useless ASIC is.

  11. Morning Bludgers,

    Another Government in crisis meme from Fairfax
    today:

    http://www.smh.com.au/national/customs-staff-accused-of-smuggling-20120327-1vwnp.html

    This time, the fact that some two dozen Customs and Border Protection types are under investigation for various offences including tipping-of drug importers as to planned Customs inspections and advising them how best to avoid detection. Although the Government and relevant Minister, Jason Clare, seem to have taken precsely the appropriate steps once advised of the problem (sacking/standing people down and initiating appropriate investigations including a joing police task force) there is still the obvious chance of a “Stop The Drugs” attack from You Know Who.

    So far, however, the Opposition have merely pointed-out (via, Michael Keenan, their Customs spokesman) that:
    [budget cuts, including the loss of 340 staff and nearly $60 million in funding since 2010, were worsening the problem.]

    This line of attack may blunt any disgraceful “Labor Soft on Drug Trafficking” stuff from Monkey Boy as I’ve no doubt that young Jason Clare will take great pleasure in reminding everyone if the issue is raised of the 12,000 or so across-the-board PS cuts Hockey will introduce if he gets a chance. (“We’ve pruned 340 staff. Under The Tories it would have been at least twice that….where would that have left us in terms of even detecting, let alone stopping this sort of thing?”)

  12. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    What a trio to have in your corner!
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/asio-not-target-of-my-outburst-robb-explains-20120327-1vwnh.html
    This could be an interesting stoush.
    http://www.theage.com.au/business/apple-in-strife-for-ipad-4g-claim-20120327-1vwm4.html
    Ron Tandberg has been doing some great stuff lately.

    David Rowe captures Abbott’s tactics very well.
    http://www.afr.com/p/home/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO

  13. Morning all

    [Federal Communications Minister Stephen Conroy, who is overseeing the government’s $36 billion national broadband network (NBN) project, has received an award from a New York-based think tank.

    Senator Conroy has been named Intelligent Community Visionary of the year for 2012.

    The award has announced by the Intelligent Community Forum (ICF), a think tank that studies the use of information and communications technology.]

    http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/conroy-named-a-community-visionary-20120327-1vw6p.html

  14. it is amazing that our govt gets kudos from around the world, and here it is getting maligned on a daily basis. Why the disconnect? Dont know when the govt is going to start advertising its achievements, but the time must surely be not far away now.

  15. [Senator Conroy has been named Intelligent Community Visionary of the year for 2012.]
    I thought our Sophie would be in line for such an award.

  16. Costello proves why he is unfit to be on the Future Fund board, much less its Chairman:

    [Queensland tsunami is heading for federal ALP
    There comes a time in the life of a government where it faces the choice to either change course or march to oblivion. At present federal Labor is showing no sign of change. What Gillard should have done after the Queensland debacle was to convene the cabinet and announce that the carbon tax, fixed at $23 a tonne, would be immediately cut and set at a level that applies in comparable countries – say $10, as in Europe. She should have cancelled the monstrous spending on “clean energy” schemes throwing taxpayers’ money after uneconomic proposals that will only ever increase costs for business and consumers. She should have announced reforms to help industry create jobs.

    Instead she flew out of the country to a summit in Korea. The Queensland voters are entitled to conclude they will have to deliver the message a second time around.]

    I am reminded of Michael Egan’s piece the other day where he wrote that even a nuts-and-bolts phone conversation with Costello was inundated with political sloganeering from the other end.

    The point Costello makes about Gillard nonchalantly junketing off to South Korea for a conference on a piddling thing like nuclear disarmament (one that was attended by many world leaders, including Barak Obama), instead of gutting the Carbon Tax and then rolling her sleeves up and tramping the hustings in Woop-Woop Queensland is straight out of the Daily Telegraph playbook: stupid, nasty and wrong.

    Although it’s so stupid it’s hardly worth critiquing, what was Gillard supposed to do? Ask Obama to change the dates? Postpone the conference?

    [“Oh, I’m sorry, can we do nuclear non-dissemination to terrorists next week, please? I have to be in Queensland. See, I’ve got a target on my forehead and Tony Abbott says Queenslanders won’t miss, so I really should be there. I have to cancel carbon pricing, too. Just too busy, I’m afraid.”]

    If you can bear the smirk that drips from every word, the link is below…

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/queensland-tsunami-is-heading-for-federal-alp-20120327-1vwi1.html#ixzz1qLwppt1b

  17. [it is amazing that our govt gets kudos from around the world, and here it is getting maligned on a daily basis. Why the disconnect?]

    Why the disconnect?

    Because the world is full of Wogs, Dagoes, Poms, Chinks, Muzzies, Socialist bludgers and Uppity Women.

    The world doesn’t have umpteen billion tonnes of iron ore in the ground like we managed to organize for ourselves.

    The world doesn’t have living national treasures like Clive Palmer and great leaders like Ray Hadley and Tony Abbott who tell those bozos and clowns in the government where they’re going wrong.

    The world can’t afford to pay for nannies and lifestyle welfare to subsidize $150k battlers like we can.

    What would the bloody world know?

    If the world likes our government then that shows how bad they and our government really are.

  18. [Talk about the biter being bit the Australian Financial Review has exposed News Ltd’s dirty underhand dark arts in Australia today;

    A four-year investigation by The Australian Financial Review has revealed a global trail of corporate dirty tricks directed against competitors by a secretive group of former policemen and intelligence officers within News Corp known as Operational Security.”]

    http://www.afr.com/p/business/marketing_media/pay_tv_piracy_hits_news_OV8K5fhBeGawgosSzi52MM

    Oh wow.

    And from the AFR too. Wonders never cease.

    This article seems to fully support the allegations raised in the BBC Panorama Investigation of Murdoch’s industrial-scale hacking of OnDigital, referred to above, too. Several familiar faces turn-up in both stories.

    This one, however, has got the lot, ‘Lawyers, guns and money’ as the Late Warren Zevon might have said: An Ex Israeli spy chief, lawsuits flying about like confetti, Hacking geeks, wads of cash, dirty ex-cops and, of course, the Murdoch code of omerta to keep it all quiet.

    And we finally have a local victim, Austar.

    Whereas at least with the UK phone hacking and the OnDigital chicanery, News could at least claim some fig-leaf of cover on the basis that these were ‘foreign scandals’, involving a bunch of ‘exciteable foreigners’ on the other side of the world. That particular fig leaf is no longer available. It’s the local Big Boy behaving badly, using the same staff as he’d used on previous jobs of this nature right around the world.

    The News MO globally seems to have been to attack a rival with security hacks on a grand scale, then publishing their security and access codes on the net so that hackers world-wide could copy and distribute fake digital access cards and access their oponents subscription services for free.

    Of course, once the codes are out there, the job is essetially done as everyone wants free cable or satellite TV, right? The attack becomes at some point self-sustaining with hundreds of thousands using the free hacks, rather than the paid subscription service. This inevitable brings the News Opponent to it’s knees, financially speaking.

    After ruining their opponents’ business model and driving them to the wall, News then moves-on in with a nice take-over offer. Hell, they don’t even given the Mark the traditional Mob warning first (‘Nice business you got here…pity if something were to happen to it…’). No siree. They just attack it, bugger it up and buy out the smouldering wreckage to minimise any prospect of lawsuits and still wagging tongues.

    It’s a nice litle earner. The Long Firm that works.

    Whoever said that the Murdoch Empire looks like something out of The Godfather seems to have been right on the money. Indeed, it’s beginning to look about as straight as you’d expect any business associated with someone like Dutch Schultz to be.

    [An excellent piece of investigative journalism this. 14,000 emails as evidence no less. Let’s hope this leads to SewerRoo and his minions having to answer questions from a witness box.]

    It’s damned hard to argue with that, grantplant.

    [It will also be a test of just how useful/useless ASIC is.]

    Just so. Forget pone hacking in the UK or even coprorate hacking and piracy in Europe. This is the bomb. It’s local. Surely our corporate regulators here have got to sit-up and start taking notice. This kind of contemptible conduct is so far beyond the pail its ridiculous.

    I suppose I can now expct a visit from Ronnie and Reggie for this post, too.

  19. “The power of news ltd”
    There is a story being run in todays Sydneys daily telegraph about the GOLD COAST TITANS NRL CLUBS CEO Michael Serle, this campaign has been going on for a while now as related stories show. Now readers will make up their own minds about the competence or otherwise about Mr Serle but on the basis of the info provided by news i doubt it would be favourable. Most readers of this blog probally have never heard of Michael Serle you being in the main AFL tragics. What was his big crime in life?. I would say being the main driving force in the setting up of the independant NRL commission, thereby ridding NEWS LTD of their 50% ownership of the NRL wich brought pay tv rights at bargain prices to FOX SPORTS. And look who is waiting in the wings to grab the GOLD COAST TITANS your friend and mine Clive Palmer!!!!!!

  20. Must read @SwannyDPM fights the tories:

    [WHEN I hear the Liberal Party and billionaires like Clive Palmer complain about the extra retirement savings Australians will now get from the mining boom, it makes me remember why I joined the Labor Party 40 years ago.

    As a Labor government, we’re always motivated by fairness and sticking up for those that need help the most. That’s underpinned our decisions despite having to deal with some of the most challenging conditions in our history – from the biggest global economic meltdown in 80 years to the worst natural disasters on record.

    By keeping our economy strong and Australians in work we’ve been able to create a stronger, fairer nation. Measures like the nation’s first paid parental leave scheme, the biggest increase to the pension in history and a tripling of the tax-free threshold will make and are making a real difference to the lives of ordinary Australians.

    Just last week, Prime Minister Julia Gillard secured support for the Minerals Resource Rent Tax. This will lock in the benefits of the mining boom for generations to come. But it’s also a critical reform for the lives of millions of Australians today.]

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/labors-about-helping-those-with-most-need/story-e6frezz0-1226311719939

    & Keep the BISONs running – http://afrankview.net/2012/03/more-australian-bisons-than-ever/

  21. Not sure if alredy linked. But in today’s DT

    [THE number of asylum seekers coming to Australia has dropped in the past year.

    A UNHCR report released yesterday said the number of asylum seekers fell by 9 per cent – from 12,640 in 2010 to 11,510 in 2011 – largely due to a reduction in the number of people coming to Australia by boat, especially from Afghanistan, the report said.]

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/asylum-seeker-arrivals-down-9-per-cent-in-the-past-twelve-months/story-e6freuzr-1226311829256

  22. [ The piracy cost the Australian pay TV companies up to $50 million a year and helped cripple the finances of Austar, which Foxtel is now in the process of acquiring.

    A four-year investigation by The Australian Financial Review has revealed a global trail of corporate dirty tricks directed against competitors by a secretive group of former policemen and intelligence officers within News Corp known as Operational Security.”

    http://www.afr.com/p/business/marketing_media/pay_tv_piracy_hits_news_OV8K5fhBeGawgosSzi52MM%5D

    Morning all – Grantplant, good post, thanks. We have Austar and it’s annoying to now find that News Corp is the cause of a few of their financial problems. So much for Hartigan’s enquiry here – no wonder he jumped to do clear the company before the Govt. set up an enquiry.

  23. smithe @1227 this is huge albeit complex.

    Aunty will not be able to avoid reporting it even if, at this stage, they are happily sitting on their fingers or not used to reading anything but Newslimited… And they aint going to find it there.

  24. [victoria

    Posted Wednesday, March 28, 2012 at 8:39 am | Permalink

    deflationite

    I gather Abbott is being interviewed by Faine this morning
    ]

    Yes, that was the only question I heard before I turned the radio off!

  25. Smithe @ 1227;

    [I suppose I can now expct a visit from Ronnie and Reggie for this post, too.]

    Well either that or Monty Python’s Pirahna Brothers 😉

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C-FDW1shmqA

    BH @ 1235;

    Yes I have Austar too so I can relate to what you are saying entirely. Fortunately NBN comes down my street in about a month so I will have an alternative (yes, this is my nyaaa nyaaa nyaaa moment to Rupert).

    Hartigan’s ‘investigation’ was always a Grade A joke.

  26. http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/nothing-good-ever-happened-at-a-sydney-casino/

    [Nothing good ever happened at a Sydney casino
    by Anthony Sharwood
    28 MAR 05:45AM

    Give The Star some credit. It does at least live up to its name, even if it has to fork out megabucks to get the stars to appear.

    ……

    For better or worse, Melbourne’s Crown Casino has inculcated itself into the heart and soul of the city. It is a venue where average people meet to eat, socialise and maybe – but only maybe – blow all their money. Sydney’s casino has never come close to being a social hub. Star City, and now The Star, has always been more of a scar on the city’s landscape than a star.]

    http://www.afr.com/p/technology/huawei_block_splits_opposition_omknYEsLn5cPUoqyvufImI

    [Huawei block splits opposition
    PUBLISHED: 8 HOURS 28 MINUTES AGO | UPDATE: 5 HOURS 33 MINUTES AGO

    MARCUS PRIEST WITH JOHN MCDULING
    The federal Coalition has split over blocking Chinese technology company Huawei from the national broadband network, with federal shadow attorney-general George Brandis and former Liberal numbers man Nick Minchin backing Labor.]

    http://www.afr.com/p/technology/huawei_growing_us_image_problem_2XddJasU5LkEIs8ZPn7CNP
    [Huawei’s growing US image problem]

    http://www.afr.com/p/technology/just_don_mention_the_cyber_war_nbn_QWaZvuM4LSnqIVqhsmPjNM
    [Just don’t mention the (cyber) war, NBN or govt bans]

    http://www.afr.com/p/national/nbn_chief_says_no_price_gouge_despite_ynE06edy7acOqx8ZwPweAO
    [NBN chief says no price gouge despite Huawei ban]

  27. [Aunty will not be able to avoid reporting it ]

    I hope you’re right, but the cynic in me says otherwise.

    Where were all the ABC reports countering the msm misrepresentations about the BER and HIP for eg?

  28. zoomster

    The coalition are split on many issues, least of all the Nats members dictating policy direction. I have been waiting for months for a huge split to occur. The damn polls is the only thing stopping this from happening. How I wish a good poll comes out soon for the govt, as this is all it is going to take for it to be on for young and old in the coalition ranks.

  29. Joe @ 1245;

    An interesting point about the AFR publishing all this dirt on Rupert’s clandestine attacks on potential competitors after a 4 year investigation is that it is now edited by an ex-OO economics writer – one Michael Sutchbury no less.

    I wonder if he new this was in the ‘pipeline’ before he moved over to the AFR late last year.

  30. confessions, they have been giving the Panorama story a run. As this just follows on and has a local angle, it would surely be impossible to avoid…surely!!!!

  31. A 57-43 Federal result to the Coalition in 2013 would result in a loss of about 32 Labor seats, leaving them with about 40 seats in a 150 seat Parliament. This would be a bit worse than the position after the 1975 ‘Dismissal’ election. Enough for a viable opposition, but likely a minimum of two terms before there is any realistic chance of returning to power. You could pretty much bet on Tony Abbott calling a double dissolution at the earliest possible moment. Of course the Murdoch press will start campaigning for a Double Dissolution the day after the last vote is counted.

    If the result is 60-40, which seems to be well within the bounds of possibility, Labor would end up with about 28 seats, and out of office for at least a decade, perhaps forever.

    Many voters will say they don’t see a big difference between the parties. That is not true. A decade of conservative / right wing populist rule will see a return of Workchoices and with it a huge reduction in what little bargaining power employees retain; the dismantling of Medicare (it happened under Fraser); the running down of public education, public hospitals and welfare as funds are directed to subsidise the private choices of the well off; an end to any constructive effort in combating climate change; a foreign policy that even more slavishly follows that of the US; etc… etc. It does make a big difference. Money will rule – I don’t know why so many people think their interests align with those of the Palmers and Rineharts of the world.

    This Federal government is far from perfect, but look at the alternative. Labor urgently needs to start getting its message across.

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