Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition

A bad result for the government in the latest fortnightly Newspoll, with the Coalition’s two-party lead out from 54-46 to 57-43. The primary votes are 28 per cent for Labor (down three) and 47 per cent for the Coalition (up four). Julia Gillard at least has the consolation that her personal ratings have improved from the previous fortnight’s dismal result, with her approval up three to 31 per cent and disapproval down four to 58 per cent. Tony Abbott’s ratings are unchanged at 32 per cent approval and 58 per cent disapproval, and there is likewise essentially no change on preferred prime minister (Gillard leads 40-37, up from 39-37).

Another consolation for Labor is the possibility that a bit of static might be expected from a poll conducted over the same weekend as a state election such as the one in Queensland. They can be fortified in this view by the fact that their standing improved in this week’s Essential Research poll, the most recent weekly component of which was conducted over a longer period than Newspoll (Wednesday to Sunday rather than Friday to Sunday). Very unusually, given that Essential is a two-week rolling average, this showed a two-point shift on two-party preferred, with the Coalition lead shrinking from 56-44 to 54-46. Given that Essential spiked to 57-43 a fortnight ago, and the sample which sent it there has now washed out of the rolling average, this is not entirely surprising. Labor’s primary vote is up two to 34 per cent, and the Coalition’s is down one to 47 per cent. Further questions featured in the poll cover the economy, its prospects, best party to handle it and personal financial situation (slightly more optimism than six months ago, and Labor up in line with its overall improvement since then), job security, Kony 2012, taking sickies and the impact of the high dollar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,757 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition”

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  1. [ Port Macquarie, NSW – best climate in Oz ]

    shellbell, BH,

    Thanks. It’s an option somewhat down the track but will heed your advice.

  3. I am reasonably sure that I heard Abbott say wtte ‘do you think I would be cycling all these 100’s of kilometres if I was certain I was going to win the next election.’ Unless I misinterpreted him he seemed to be essentially saying that he is only doing this ride to boost his electoral prospects.

  7. [yeah council is a bit hard to get excited about. ]

    I think it depends where you live. My own council represents a diverse community, and industry/economic base.

    My prime motivation for wanting to nominate was that the shire is on the cusp of making the transition away from a solely regulatory role (planning, environmental, health inspections etc), to a broader focus encapsulating social inclusion and community development. New areas for my council.

    These are my passions, and I saw an opportunity to be there from the outset, setting and driving the agenda. I still want to do it, but don’t have the time atm to do it properly.

  9. fair enough confessions. i’d be going for Brisbane City Council. huge budget. but still alot about public transport urban planning etc… not really my cup o tea.

  10. [sossman, do you think Dick will stand again in your seat? (stop the sniggering people!)]

    I hope so! I mean he’s probably the most impressive from that old team.

    What stood out for me after the loss was that he was the only losing member that wasn’t trying to spin Saturday’s result on the live coverage.

    If he stays on like he said he will to help the rebuild, the hunger will come back and he’ll run again. Then again, the anonymity and nice pay of private practice as a barrister may also be just as appealling. We’ll see.

  12. http://www.smh.com.au/national/nations-most-needy-missing-out-on-essentials-20120326-1vup2.html
    [SOLE parents and the unemployed on social security payments are missing out on the essentials of life such as dental care and decent housing, and their children lack up-to-date school books and uniforms, a new study shows.

    The study has been released by the Australian Council of Social Service in advance of its national conference on Thursday.

    It shows 61 per cent of the unemployed on the Newstart allowance and 58 per cent of those on the parenting payment are missing out on at least three essentials of life, compared with 12 per cent of age pensioners and 15 per cent of all households.]

  15. mm:

    AGree re public transport. Except where I live there is none, so if the shire decided to take it on, it’d be groundbreaking stuff. 🙂

    I’d probably enjoy that.

  17. Dan Gulberry 1051 thanks for the link to The Geeks That Defeated Hitler. One segment stood out – speculation why the WW2 Bletchley codebreakers succeeded whereas similar German efforts failed.

    Bletchley welcomed all comers so long as they were super intelligent. Didn’t matter if they were slightly mad, eccentric or dysfunctional. The German effort of course excluded whole classes of people – but demanded unquestionable loyalty to the corporate Nazi ethos. Not surprising that failed to match Bletchley’s achievements.

    And then blow me down I read this in The Age, the corporate bosses at RMIT telling uni academics to smile more. Lord help Australian science if this is what the leaders of one our most important science universities are prioritizing.

    http://www.theage.com.au/national/education/rmit-academics-really-not-happy-about-having-to-be-happy-at-work-20120326-1vuob.html

  19. 1157

    ‘Social inclusion’ is a meaningless platitude, synonymous with ‘let the government take more of your money’

  21. Im starting to think the media’s approach is to annoy the living crap out of Australians until they vote for Abbott (someone they clearly cant stand ) – just so the yapping heads will shut up.

  24. Gus – The geeks that Defeated Hitler was about two other code breakers who did extraordinary work.Their story is only just coming out. Just as interesting as the original Enigma work. The doco is highly recommended as other PBrs have commented
    I believe Turring committed suicide after being arrested in a gents lavatory ….. Terribly sad that homophobia led to the death of one of the absolute icons of 20th century science.
    Even sadder when one reflects on how many lives his work helped save.

  25. No, I blame the QLD ALP for their defeat (time factor, privatisation issue, bad campaign), but the sngle member district system for the scale of it (40% non-LNP vote nets you 13% of seats – that’s actually not good enough for a modern democratic country).

    Frankly, I do think our national media’s been piss poor, and Murdoch & ABC in particualr gives Abbott an easy ride, but I nonetheless think the ALP can get over that hurdle if they’re smart and work hard, as they did in 2007.

    Still blaming the indies, are we?

  32. Good night, Bludgers.

    If you reside in Queensland, don’t forget to lock your doors. Also, it might be wise to invest in a couple of mean and hungry guard dogs.

    Family jewels, the silver, certainly anything resembling gold, items of nostalgic interest, documents, art works … should be removed to a safe place for the duration.

    Good luck. We have not forsaken you … arrangements for an air drop of shortwave radios is now well advanced. Are you all OK for batteries?

  33. [No 1175

    Proportional representation is not a bad idea in the upper house…oh wait, QLD Labor abolished that 90 years ago.]

    As bilbo says, the place was an unlected swill of squatters. No wonder they wanted it gone.

    BTW, how would the Yanks deal with a Senate consisting solely of those nominated and funded by Big Business?

    Oh that’s right. They’ve already got one.

    The only thing lacking are the sponsorship badges on the backs of their suits: “Senator X Sponsored by GE; Sen Y, sponsored by Walmart; Sen Z, brought to you bt Enron (oh—wait no,….Bear Stearns……no…wait….AIG….no, wait….) well, whoever is paying the prick this week.

  36. [The only thing lacking are the sponsorship badges on the backs of their suits: “Senator X Sponsored by GE; Sen Y, sponsored by Walmart; Sen Z, brought to you bt Enron]

    If a similar concept were introduced here, surely all coalition MPs would have emblazoned on their attire: ‘Proudly sponsored by Clive Palmer, Gina Rinehart, Rupert Murdoch and Philip Morris’.

  37. No 1180

    Indeed.

    That all said, I fail to see how your lengthy post comparing the new parliament to Soviet Russia (dear lord!) is particularly strong. You’re really arguing against unicameral systems, as Newman would have just as much power in a legislative sense had he only won 55 seats.

  38. No 1183

    This isn’t Washington DC. Our founding fathers at least had the foresight to ensure that ‘tacking’ is prohibited (i.e. slipping in secret taxes/levies etc to unrelated bills in order to appease donors or dish out pork as is common practice in the US).

  40. [You’re really arguing against unicameral systems, as Newman would have just as much power in a legislative sense had he only won 55 seats.]

    Yes, but the point I was making was that he would be faced by an opposition.

  42. The main difference between QLD and the majority of other state and federal voting systems in Australia is the optional preference system in QLD. However even with a compulsory preference system any party that gets close to 50pc of the primary with the next closest party getting just under 27pc will end up with a large majority of the seats. Personally I would prefer both compulsory preference voting and a properly constituted upper house but they aren’t what we have.

    If QLD has some form of proportional representation we probably would have ended up with a mess of a hung parliament and I’m not sure that’s what we need at this time.

  43. [Still blaming the media, everyone except Labor to blame. Nothing much changes around these parts.]

    To prove that the problem is just in our imaginations, how about you back to us when you find some mainstream media outlets that are pro-Labor. …Heck, don’t worry about SOME, get back to us when you find ONE!

    Or, failing that, get back to us when you find one media outlet hostile to the Noalition in the way that all commercial talkback radio is to Labor. Just one will prove that we’re delusional.

  44. No 1190

    And the opposition could scream endlessly to no practical end. Labor has only itself to blame for its predicament and if Newman does abuse his gargantuan mandate, he will be punished. This is democracy, as unpalatable as it may be for those on either side from time to time.

  45. I dont think the C-M was all that supportive of the LNP leading up to the QLD election Cuppa although they did swing that way in the last week.

  48. [I dont think the C-M was all that supportive of the LNP leading up to the QLD election Cuppa although they did swing that way in the last week.]

    Nothing even approaching a shadow of the hostility and pure hatred that’s dished out with no balance whatsoever to Labor and the Greens 24/7 by hate radio.

  49. No 1193

    No media outlet should be ‘pro Labor’ – that is the inherent imbecility of your argument. The media should freely criticise the government persistently and enthusiastically. That is its job.

    Commercial radio stations mostly have opinionated talking heads in relevant programs, they are not journalists and are entitled to their positions. That their is an apparent deficit of pro Labor shock jocks proves that the market doesn’t demand one, let alone support the idea.

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