Very much obviously remains to be said about the Queensland state election result, and rest assured that it soon will be. In the meantime, here’s a table which breaks down the damage region by region.
| VOTES | SEATS | |||||||
| ALP | LNP | GRN | KAP | ALP | LNP | IND | KAP | |
| Northern Brisbane | 31.7% | 51.9% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
| -16.1% | 13.8% | -1.0% | -10 | +10 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Southern Brisbane | 33.8% | 49.4% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 2 | 14 | 0 | 0 |
| -18.5% | 13.7% | -0.6% | -12 | +12 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Inner Brisbane | 30.7% | 52.5% | 13.6% | 2.6% | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| -9.5% | 12.8% | -1.7% | -5 | +5 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Ipswich | 33.6% | 38.5% | 5.4% | 14.1% | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| -24.8% | 8.2% | -1.9% | -2 | +2 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Gold Coast | 23.4% | 58.3% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
| -17.8% | 12.7% | -0.2% | -4 | +4 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Sunshine Coast | 16.1% | 57.9% | 11.3% | 6.6% | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| -12.8% | 8.6% | 1.2% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Urban Hinterland | 19.1% | 51.0% | 7.4% | 18.7% | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| -14.0% | 5.6% | -0.4% | -1 | +2 | -1 | 0 | ||
| Central Coastal | 25.3% | 41.3% | 4.2% | 16.9% | 2 | 8 | 1 | 0 |
| -17.4% | 2.4% | -1.4% | -2 | +3 | -1 | 0 | ||
| Northern Coastal | 26.4% | 40.9% | 5.1% | 25.4% | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| -17.8% | -1.1% | -2.7% | -5 | +5 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Interior | 15.7% | 50.7% | 3.3% | 26.9% | 0 | 5 | 0 | 2 |
| -10.8% | -1.2% | -0.2% | -1 | -1 | 0 | +2 | ||
| Top End | 33.3% | 37.7% | 5.1% | 21.8% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| -13.5% | -4.3% | -1.2% | -1 | +1 | 0 | 0 | ||
| TOTAL | 26.8% | 49.5% | 7.4% | 11.6% | 8 | 77 | 2 | 2 |
| -15.9% | 8.4% | -0.6% | -43 | +43 | -2 | +2 | ||
Diogenes,
I think I am missing something about your argument.
You may have missed that some people making comments here are what might be called trolls of concern or worry-warts.
Like me to send you an application for membership?
At the risk of getting minus brownie points, I would like to point out that the stfu script is alive and well.
I shan’t promulgate it; you’ll have to find it for yourselves.
Richo isn’t really a big help.
[Former Hawke and Keating minister Graham Richardson said Queensland voters’ feelings towards the Prime Minister verged on “hatred” and urged Labor leaders to stop “kidding themselves” they could win next year without a dramatic shift in direction.]
TLBD
[Like me to send you an application for membership?]
I’d be expelled pretty quickly and besmirch your reputation for co-opting me.
@Ducky/752
Yup.
Time for bed, got better things to do tomorrow than to hear certain people cackle/complain about ALP etc.
Diogenes,
I am no member. You might like to go to a branch meeting and see what it / you offends.
I’m sure the ALP has a “I’d like to be a priest /nun clause” that enables you to attend but not to wear the star and sickle.
Was disappointed to see a number of losing ALP MP’s last night blame this result on “political gravity” and the wish for change in the electorate.
If we lost 20 seats this may have been the case. We lost well over 40. Cameron Dick (our greatest loss in this election) was the only MP who saw this result for what it was.
Yes, the LNP was able to side step any real scrutiny, but the greatest culprit in this loss was the ALP itself. We stand here now, 17 months from a very crucial Federal Election, without a vision that resonates strongly with our base. We’ve simply conceded the key battlegrounds of Economics and Employment to the LNP without a fight and the electorate has switched off to any positive narrative we have on health, education or the environment.
PB’s, don’t take this result lightly. In just over 4 years since the Rudd Victory, the LNP has been able to dismantle and discredit any positive story we had to tell. In 4 short years we’ve become a hated party. Out of all the people I know in my professional and social circles, I could count the number of ALP supporters on one hand.
Before you rattle off our achievements, point to the ‘scoreboard’ or flag the media as a barrier to our success, ask yourself -how did we let it get to this in the first place?
Where do you even begin to turn this around?
If it were up to me I’d begin by sacking every political advisor that’s supposedly on our side. LNP policies may be rubbish, but they seem to get the best advice and form the most effective strategy.
zoidy,
May Morpheus enhance your closing of the eyes!
Of course being qld, they will not only elect Barnyard, they will offer him their most beautiful goats.
Sossman,
Sounds fair.
Puffy,
Nats sitting v would-be will be a hoot.
Care to join me on the PB couch?
TLBD, yep. you bring the popcorn, I will do a chilled Adelaide Hills white.
Hello true Bludgers.
I wimped it. Caught a sniff and ran for the hills. Watched New Tricks on the TV and patted the dogs.
+++
Anna Bligh, I salute you. A fighter. You gave your all. That effort and dedication to the Labor cause is deeply appreciated. Whatever you choose to do in the future will be a success. You are a strong woman. We need more.
+++
The SMH is heavy on the ‘GILLARD IS EVEN MORE DOOMED THAN EVER’ narrative today: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/after-bligh-the-deluge-gillards-own-day-of-reckoning-awaits-her-20120325-1vsjw.html
And note that even Ruddstoration gets a mention at the end, gah.
“We” “We” “We” “We”
*Sigh*
One longs for the days when PB was a bi-partisan discussion about all things polls & psephology and not the rabid ALP branch meeting it has degraded into – ironically which began the day it got merged into Crikey
According to the first preference votes of punters, the LNP should have 44 seats, ALP 24 seats, Greens 7 seats, KAP 10 seats and others 4 seats.
The undemocratic perverse system (defended by the Lib/Labs as they see it prevents ‘competition’) results in LNP 78 seats, ALP 7 seats, Greens 0 seats, KAP 2 seats and others 2 seats
[NATIONALS Senate Leader Barnaby Joyce will challenge party veteran Bruce Scott for his lower-house seat of Maranoa with the aim of becoming deputy prime minister. ]
FFS that’s all Australia needs. A goose for PM and a drongo for deputy. I was kind of hoping with the Qld thing we’d seen Peak Stupid but apparently not, it keeps building. The rabid right will scour this country.
Bob Katters Hat,
[One longs for the days when PB was a bi-partisan discussion about all things polls & psephology and not the rabid ALP branch meeting it has degraded into – ironically which began the day it got merged into Crikey]
PB has racked up over 1.2 million comments. The formula / mix of community we have here is working, and working like few others blogs outside of the msm have done. Very few successful blogs are truly bi-partisan; quite the opposite. All the big name political blogs have a bias one way or the other. But you’re right; the emphasis has shifted on from strict psephology to topical discussion of day-to-day politics. Fine by me.
BKH, for old time’s sake, I just reviewed a thread from two weeks before the move to Crikey. Thomas Paine, Diogenes, Gary Bruce, ShowsOn, Bushfire Bill, Ruawake, The Finnigans … You’re right. Unrecognisable.
I do take your point though, but you’re wrong to identify the move to Crikey as the time it happened.
Which is not to imply that all of those I’ve just listed are part of some “rabid ALP branch meeting” …
[I’d give Qld a lower house of 50 and a PR upper house of 26, with a Cabinet of 10.]
Qld definately needs its upper house back. But if you contract the number of legislative assembly seats back, then aren’t you just reproducing the jerrymander only in reverse, whereby country voters lose out at the expense of city voters?
BKH
Me too but the change occurred in the campaign period before the 2007 election when threads began to get more than 1000 posts for the first time and most of them were about politics rather than polls or psephology.
Actually, scratch my comment above. What you’d have would simply be more voters per electorate, both urban and rural.
Wiliam
Could we perhaps see a snapshot from say November 2006 to remind us old timers what it was like – we might all be disappointed as memory tends to make the past seem golden.
Why would any entity that has got rid of an upper house want it back? In the current Australian polity, an upper house elected by PR ensures that policy decisions are placed under the veto of a party that yeasterday struggled to get 5% of the vote.
OC
The original Queensland LC was quite a different beast than a PR elected upper house.
As has been stated by others, perhaps PR for a single chamber could be the way to go rather than resurrecting the LC, but PR somewhere seems important to stop the distortion of single member electorates in the lower house that Queensland has currently (where a party gaining 50% of the vote wins nearly 90% of the seats).
Sorry? No one gets a veto with 5% of the vote unless the other 95% of the votes are split down the middle.
PR is not a scary bogeyman, and Australian politics should just mature and deal with chambers where multiple parties have to negotiate outcomes as a normal feature rather than rare hung parliament cases.
candoqld.com.au has exceeded its bandwidth limit!
It’s all there in the archives drop-down on the sidebar, OC. Things were certainly different in 2006.
[Before you rattle off our achievements, point to the ‘scoreboard’ or flag the media as a barrier to our success, ask yourself -how did we let it get to this in the first place?
Where do you even begin to turn this around?
If it were up to me I’d begin by sacking every political advisor that’s supposedly on our side. LNP policies may be rubbish, but they seem to get the best advice and form the most effective strategy.]
It is pretty simple really.
Everything has been crap for Labor since they got rid of Rudd.
Ever since that happened, most voters don’t really think Labor knows what it is doing, so they view everything Labor does through that prism.
Gillard is the same as Anna Bligh, a well meaning and tough woman who voters just couldn’t care less about.
If Gillard is Labor leader at the next election Labor will struggle to win 40 seats.
[The original Queensland LC was quite a different beast than a PR elected upper house.
As has been stated by others, perhaps PR for a single chamber could be the way to go rather than resurrecting the LC, ]
Well if Labor felt a single chamber with PR was in its long term interests, the time to do it was after Beattie won 66 seats.
You know I have never noticed that there before. Thanks
O the old days good too see many still around, many long gone or changed identity or maybe in some sort of witness protection program
Ducky earlier asked if I had evidence. Nothing scientific, just the ramblings of people I heard mention it.
Sossman 757
Despite all the sage advice and strategy the LNP appear to have had in Qld they still do not appear to have managed 50% of the primary vote. Refer swamprat at 767. 🙂
Confessions 773 & 775
Your original idea may have some merit. though electorates would be larger, less people would be unrepresented by someone they support. And legislation would at least get some kind of review. Nothing too terrible about increasing the number of members, either.
O dear it is being reported that some silly billy as advised the Federal Government that marking the 100th anniversary of Gallopy (excuse the spelling) would potentially be divisive
This is the sort of story even if it is just one suggestion amongst a 100 that causes frustration with pollies. and explains why the ALP is struggling. hopefully tomorrow the Government comes out strongly and hits this silliness back over the reporters head for six.
By the way no ethnic group will be offended.
Source Herald Sun
MB, I notice that the story has Gemma Jones on its byline, so it may well be untrue.
William – Excuse my ignorance but does she have form?
Yeah, some. This latest story is a beat-up, but probably not her worst (that would be this effort).
Good morning Dawn Patrollers (I hope I am in the right place here!).
Can-Do is starting off with all the verve of the old style corporate raiders who think they can cost cut their way to success.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/heads-to-roll-as-newman-hits-the-ground-running-20120325-1vsn3.html
This is an interesting article from Peter Hartcher.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/big-bucks-versus-democracy-20120323-1vp95.html
Alan Moir kicks off with the new Premier of Queensland.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
Ron Tandberg draws a parallel between Abbott and Ackermanis.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
[NATIONALS Senate Leader Barnaby Joyce will challenge party veteran Bruce Scott for his lower-house seat of Maranoa with the aim of becoming deputy prime minister.]
That’s ALL we need! Australia would be a laughing stock.
[One longs for the days when PB was a bi-partisan discussion about all things polls & psephology and not the rabid ALP branch meeting it has degraded into – ironically which began the day it got merged into Crikey]
Even worst, PB often is no more than Auntie Agony, social support, family dirty linen airing and personal counselling forum. Shame really.
A telling cartoon from the US.
[We’ve simply conceded the key battlegrounds of Economics and Employment to the LNP without a fight and the electorate has switched off to any positive narrative we have on health, education or the environment.
PB’s, don’t take this result lightly. In just over 4 years since the Rudd Victory, the LNP has been able to dismantle and discredit any positive story we had to tell. In 4 short years we’ve become a hated party. Out of all the people I know in my professional and social circles, I could count the number of ALP supporters on one hand.
Before you rattle off our achievements, point to the ‘scoreboard’ or flag the media as a barrier to our success, ask yourself -how did we let it get to this in the first place?]
#757 – if you read closely at above. Spot the contradiction.
The only way forward is not to concede the the battlegrounds of Economics and Employment, and stick to the fundamentals.
The only way forward is the BISONs, stupid. Else another annihilation.
All the people bitching about what PB was, grow up. You don’t get to choose what people write. If you don’t like it – vote with your feet.
All the people bitching about what the ALP WAS, it’s not going to help to plant your butt demanding a return to what was.
The only reality before the ALP is starting to craft a positive message for Australian voters that resonates with the issues that are before them NOW and ARTICULATE IT clearly.
And for all those praying for a total annhilation of federal ALP, you might want to think again. A healthy democracy relies on a whole raft of checks and balances and that includes at least TWO real party options come election time.
In the interests of comparing apples with apples and not letting a good meme stand in the way of reality, I’ve done a little research into past polling.
In August 2009, a Galaxy poll had Queensland Labor on 41% of the 2PP compared to 59% for the LNP.
At around the same time – June 2009 – Federal Labor was polling at around 56-44 (and according to some polls, even higher).
From this we can conclude:
1. The Queensland poll result has very little do with the Federal government.
2. The Queensland poll result has very little to do with Julia Gillard.
3. the Queensland poll result has little to do with ‘brand Labor’.
4. And – more grimly – it can be very difficult for a government behind in the polls to turn things around, no matter how far out from an election it is.
Strangely, it might turn out that the best friends PM Gillard has for re-election will be Tony Abbott & The Tory State Govts #auspol
[1. The Queensland poll result has very little do with the Federal government.
2. The Queensland poll result has very little to do with Julia Gillard.]
Zoom, this proves it:
[Queensland is the fourth state in four years to dismiss a Labor government. Those states contain 87 per cent of Australia’s population. And the federal Labor government lost its majority in the same span. Could there be a message?
Certainly. But it’s not the one Tony Abbott was hoping it would be when he said on Friday that the Queensland election would be a referendum on the carbon tax.
In a poll of 400 voters in 20 of the seats that swung from Labor to the conservatives, only 9 per cent of Queenslanders said they were most influenced by federal issues, according to the Liberal Party’s pollster of choice, Crosby Textor.
In other words, it was a state election fought on state issues. But there is a striking similarity between the shifts against Labor in Queensland on Saturday and in NSW a year earlier. The swing against Labor in Queensland was 16 per cent and in NSW 16.5 per cent.]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/federal-alp-needs-to-stand-for-something-20120325-1vsnu.html#ixzz1qALlzE4q