Queensland election live

9.25pm. ABC computer has Maryborough back to LNP gain, after lapsing to LNP ahead for a while there.

9.07pm. Though as Antony notes, what has saved Curtis Pitt in Mulgrave is the surge to Katter’s Australian Party in north Queensland, much of which has exhausted.

9.05pm. Labor members who distinguished themselves by suffering swings of less than 10 per cent: Di Farmer in Bulimba, who has her nose in front; Jason O’Brien, whose 4.5 per cent swing against was good but not good enough; Cameron Dick in Greenslopes, likewise good but not good enough; Curtis Pitt, who has had a big personal win in retaining Mulgrave against a swing of 6.6 per cent; Anna Bligh in South Brisbane, who has actually held South Brisbane quite comfortably; Mandy Johnstone in Townsville; and Simon Finn, who might yet hold in Yeerongpilly in the face of a 9 per cent swing, but is nonetheless behind.

9.04pm. Antony cautious about the LNP winning Maryborough.

8.49pm. ABC computer promotes Bulimba and Mulgrave from ALP ahead to ALP retain. Of the eight seats where they’re in front, there are now seven down as “ALP gain”, with only Mackay remaining as “ALP ahead”. Waterford has gone from “LNP ahead” to “LNP gain”. By this reckoning, Labor’s absolute best case scenario is now nine seats.

8.39pm. ABC computer has dialled Maryborough back from LNP gain to LNP ahead.

8.25pm. The KAP may yet have an outside hope in Thuringowa if Labor preferences favour them strongly. The primary votes are 36.0 per cent for the LNP, 30.6 per cent for the KAP and 27.4 per cent for labor. Antony Green appears not to think so though. Bob Katter sounding bullish, for what it’s worth.

8.18pm. Sorry, got confused there – it has stayed on eight. Mulgrave now up from ALP ahead to ALP retain.

8.12pm. ABC now down to seven seats with Labor ahead: retaining Bundamba, Inala, Rockhampton, South Brisbane and Woodridge, ahead in Bulimba, Mackay and Mulgrave. LNP ahead in Waterford and Yeerongpilly. Everything else compared for the LNP, except Mount Isa and Dalrympe for Katter’s Australian Party, Nicklin and Gladstone retained by independents.

8.10pm. ABC computer now calling independent Chris Foley’s seat of Maryborough for the LNP.

7.56pm. ABC computer now has Labor ahead in only eight seats.

7.45pm. As noted by Antony, the KAP has not made huge gains out of coal seam gas in the Darling Downs: its strength remains very much off the back of Katter in the north.

7.44pm. Antony Green not buying Seeney’s line that Peter Wellington is in trouble in Nicklin.

7.42pm. ABC calling Ipswich West for LNP.

7.41pm. ABC calling South Brisbane for Anna Bligh.

7.31pm. Of the four independents, only Liz Cunningham in Gladstone is safe. Close contest in Maryborough between independent incumbent Chris Foley and LNP challenger Anne Maddern. Dissonance between the ABC computer (IND retain) and what Jeff Seeney says (LNP looking good) with Peter Wellington’s seat of Nicklin. LNP easily recovers Burnett, where Rob Messenger quit the party mid-term. Pretty clear I think that the KAP will win Mount Isa and Dalrymple, but no more.

7.30pm. The ABC website’s predictions columns has swung into action. Bundamba, Inala, Rockhampton and Woodridge, and is ahead in Bulimba, Mackay, Mulgrave, Nudgee and South Brisbane. They could conceivably win Logan, Mundingburra, Springwood and Waterford, but there are too few figures in from them. They are behind in Cook, Lytton, Townsville and Yeerongpilly, but not gone yet.

7.28pm. Jeff Seeney sounding confident about Nicklin, but the ABC computer is calling it for Peter Wellington.

7.24pm. With a quarter of the vote counted, the ABC computer has Anna Bligh edging back ahead in South Brisbane. But clearly Andrew Fraser and Cameron Dick are gone.

7.16pm. ABC’s two-party preferred projection is about 64-36, so the exit polls are looking good.

7.15pm. ABC computer projection, when bold calls are made where one or other party is merely “ahead”, now has Labor down to 10 from 14 earlier.

7.14pm. ABC computer graphic says three seats for KAP, but I can’t see anything beyond Mount Isa and Dalrymple.

7.13pm. Carl Rackemann (KAP) appears to be falling well short in Nanango; LNP’s Deb Frecklington to win comfortably.

7.07pm. Spare a thought for Peter Beattie’s old seat of Brisbane Central: he held it by 25 per cent after the 2001 election, ABC computer now calling it for LNP (results on site lagging behind what we’re getting on television).

7.06pm. Oh yeah, Ashgrove. ABC computer has Campbell Newman romping home by 9 per cent.

7.05pm. Peter Wellington firming up in Nicklin.

7.02pm. Antony’s casualty list: Everton, Broadwater, Cook, Barron River, Townsville North, Whitsunday, Southport, Townsville, Cairns, Mansfield, Kallangur, Pine Rivers, Mount Ommaney, Burleigh, Pumicestone, Mount Coot-tha, Redcliffe, Brisbane Central, Albert, Mundingburra, Greenslopes, Ashgrove, Murrumba, Stafford, Thuringowa, Algester, Stretton, Sunnybank, Lytton.

6.54pm. Courtesy of Psephos in comments, Labor expects to lose Capalaba, which you would expect given the overall swing: the margin is 9.7 per cent.

6.52pm. Peter Wellington with a slight primary vote lead in Nicklin, but booth-matching shows a huge and decisive swing to the LNP. Probably want more figures though.

6.51pm. Anna Bligh trailing on the primary vote in South Brisbane, and slightly behind on the primary vote. But Greens preferences might save her.

6.49pm. Antony cites a swing of 13 per cent, placing the result nearer Newspoll than the exit polls which had it slightly higher. However, it may yet change. The LNP has recovered Beaudesert, where its member Aidan McLindon had defected to the KAP, which was not unexpected.

6.47pm. Nothing appearing in the “predictions” column on the ABC results page, which is bothersome because it’s the best way to follow the action when seats are falling by the bucketload.

6.42pm. As Antony notes, early results hard to read exactly because of small rural booth results: assumptions are being made about Katter’s Australian Party preferences, which constitute a considerable share of the vote. However, the ABC computer is already set to tick over to a majority for the LNP. More than 20 seats have fallen, and it’s happening too quickly for me to keep up.

6.32pm. ABC computer already calling 22 seats for the LNP and one for Labor.

6.30pm. Jeff Seeney claims Katter’s Australian Party vote well short of what they would need on small booths.

6.26pm. Two small booths in from Dalrymple: very early days of course, but encouraging for KAP incumbent Shane Knuth on 50.0 per cent.

5.19pm. Sky’s exit poll shows a 15.3 per cent swing. They appear to have done the right thing this time and told us what the swing was, rather than publishing a bewildering two-party preferred figure without telling us what seats were polled, as they have done in the past. These were the five most marginal seats: Chatsworth and Everton in Brisbane, Broadwater on the Gold Coast, Cook on the Cape York Peninsula and Barron River in Cairns.

5.10pm. Peter Black at Essential Research relates on Twitter that a Galaxy exit poll conducted for Channel Nine has the LNP’s two-party lead at 63-37.

4.40pm. Closure of polls still over an hour away, but Sky News has published its first exit poll results, only providing material on the most important factor in determining vote choice. As usual, these are hard to read, because they apparently target only the five most marginal seats. If this is to be taken literally, they have chosen seats which are pretty meaningless in the context of this election: all will be easily won by the LNP. For what it’s worth, they have the cost of living at 69 per cent, delivery of state servies at 63 per cent, carbon tax at 44 per cent, mining tax at 35 per cent and Campbell Newman’s business dealings at 17 per cent. I presume respondents were asked in turn whether each of these issues were important to them.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

837 comments on “Queensland election live”

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  1. Maybe you were just being crass, but i truly do not remember the exchange. Those are harsh words though, perhaps I was irritated or something.

  2. Puff, you reacted to me saying that I thought some ALP MPs looked like death warmed up.

    If these comments are creepy, get to know some common vernacular.

    I am not going to go any further with this discussion aside to say that I think you let your standards down in this case.

  3. William Bowe,

    I’ve not gone too far past being the most angry I’ve been for a long time.

    You know very well what I said and why I said it!

    If you don’t, then every thing Frank has said about is unfortunately “right”!

    Get a life buddy and give up trying to be some elitist git that is above the intelligence level of most everybody that comments on your blog.

    You ain’t that good mate. You have never admitted a fault in your life and you don’t know how to, or are totally unable to apologise for a mistake or being a total prat which you often are.

    There is times when you totally give me the shits and maybe your ego is so far out of kilter to understand it, most of the people who comment regularly here, are more than well aware of it.

    Wake up man! We are all not Einsteins, but we are not bloody stupid also! I’m only 138, but it is a long way from being stupid.

  4. GeeWizz,

    [I can’t believe this idiot was ever the leader of the Liberals]

    Why was he elected as leader then? I’ll tell you. Idiocy is not necessarily a hindrance in conservative land. Look at Abbott. This is what Tony Windsor had to say about him:

    [“If you’ve got only one line to say it’s not hard to remember”]

    Their ABC, 05 July 2011

    Consider also the observation of conservative, Alister Drysdale:

    […he shouldn’t get too relaxed. Questions are being asked from inside and outside his party about his short-term tactics. Is he a one sound-bite wonder, they ask?]

    Business Spectator, 19 September 2011

    Basically, conservatives are represented by other conservatives, with all that often entails. You lie down with dogs, you’re gonna get fleas. As Frank would say, “Suck it up, princess.”

  5. I missed out on posting this to the Drum. Something to read, otherwise scroll on. Last para not aimed at ALP by the way.

    The CIA trying to gain control of environmental activists would see the CIA riding bareback on a zebra.

    If you aren’t aware of where dear Clive is coming from, check out Alex Jones’s libertarian propaganda.

    The seed of infowars might well have been sown with the best of intentions, but they are completely conflicted.

    They rail against corporate control, but don’t acknowledge the corporates right of freedom to do so?

    They are also climate change deniers, describing the science community as “scientific dictators”.

    One would presume that Alex Jones listeners who take him seriously would be more inclined to vote republican.

    I note that inforwars might have some cash for comment issues with respect to the promotion of gold.

    Of course we have our CEC as the Larouche opiners.

    It is a curious state of affairs. Are miners battling bankers for control of right wing ideology? Is it a staged fight? A bit like WWF wrestling?

    Personally, I have libertarian ideals which include the consideration that opportunities for all to lead a good and prosperous life are available to all.

    I also consider scientists advice in the same way I consider doctors advice. I take them seriously, although I may not follow their advice to the letter.

    Infowars push is to obliterate trust in everyone. Fatherly advice I have received is to trust in God and check everyone else. This advice however leads to the impossible situation within contemporary society of having to checking everything.

    Therefore, my trustometer has to be set to detect vested and conflicted interests. This is why I support the Greens – they are the least likely to cave to these. The science community has the noble intention of understanding the universe we live in as well as how we can sustain our existence in perpetuity. If this is perceived to be a left wing conspiracy by some, that’s fine, just don’t vote since you can’t trust anyone if you can’t trust scientists. Just donkey vote it.

  6. Pipe down scorps, Bilbo is OK and not always right. We locked horns over something that upon reflection we both had wrong, ie: loyalty is a subjective concept. I note that I did play absolutist first. Bibo bans but doesn’t censor. He also lifts bans once the temp cools down. He is good sport and a good sport.

  7. William Bowe,

    [Scorpio, really, I haven’t got a clue what you’re on about. What did Antony do?]

    Wake up mate before it’s too late. I don’t think you could apologise if your life depended on it.

    Do you know what the word even means?

    As far as Anthony goes, he has forgotten the ones who helped him get to where he is.

    He’s conveniently forgotten them. They are people like me. The same ones who he relied upon to support his pet project on his bike ride. Abbott does them too! So bloody what!

  8. Radguy,
    I had a feeling this fox was better off left asleep.

    As far as I remember it, you were replying to someone who had experienced a bereavement within the last year. It might even have been me. ‘A few weeks ago’ could that have been around the Ides of March – my wedding anniversary, or Valentines Day? I do remember the time was a bitch.

    I withdraw the term ‘disgusting creep’ and you can replace it with whatever you think fair.

  9. I think many are on edge because Labor just received a rigorous colonoscopy, that no doubt given the magnitude, has implications for federal labor.

    Appears to be an arrow being aimed at what left of Labor now. Labor is one by-election away from catastrophe.

  10. [“It may have all been churn – ALP voters moving to the LNP, obscuring LNP voters moving to KAP.”]

    And Greens voters went to Labor.

    This is all very silly… there aren’t Greens voters, Labor voters, LNP voters or KAP voters… there are simply voters. Sure some are more rusted-on then others but most people at some point get the sh1ts and vote for the other bloke/sheila

  11. TP
    Labor has been one by-election away from catastrophe since 2010. The Gillard Labor government has achieved a truly remarkable legislative agenda with a slender hold on power. Julia Gillard is truly astonishing and is one of the greatest Prime Ministers Australia has ever had.

  12. William Bowe,

    I would hope that you would be more than genuinely curious.

    Anthony Green shit on the majority of regular commenters on PB some time ago to his discredit. I idolised him before that but cannot forgive him now and wonder why the ABC seem to support that in that they don’t seem to give him anywhere as much coverage now as they used to.

    Hint, Antony, it’s not because your liberal leanings are more evident.

    I cannot get over how you can be sorry that I can be upset, but cannot see it in you to actually be sorry for the upset that you yourself have caused, you are just sorry that I am upset.

    You so know what “that” position puts “you in don’t you?

    They say that a drunk man says what a sober man feels. They probably are right. I’m probably close to half a flagon of cheap white at the moment.

    But William, I don’t back away from my comments to you. I hope you have the intelligence and the decency to take notice of them!

  13. Scorpio – Please excuse my ignorance but what has Antony Green do when you wrote that he had crapped on many here?

    Was it something he wrote on here or twitter or his blog?

  14. GeeWizz @568

    Actually they don’t pay any more than non-mining companies on an hourly basis. Someone doing a minimum wage type job on a mine gets pretty much the smae hourly rate as their city counterparts.

    The only reason they get alot of money os they do a lot of hours. 12 hours a day, seven days a week with penalty rates adds up. Plus you have to work public holidays at triple time all day. That alone is the equivalent of 36 hours for one days work.

    Let’s do the maths shall we (assuming no public holidays)

    Monday 12 hours works = 8 hrs normal, 2 hrs @time and a half and 2 hours @ double time = 8 +3 + 4 = 15 hours pay.

    Times that by 5 for Monday to Friday = 75 hours pay.

    Saturday you get 2 hours @ time and a half, plus 10 hours @ double time = 23 hours pay.

    Sunday is double time all day = 24 hours pay.

    The total for a full week then adds up to 122 hours of pay (for 84 hours of work).

    Even at the minimum wage rate of about $16 an hour that equals $1,952 a week before tax.

    According the ATO website, the amount of tax payable on that is $528, so you’d be left with $1,424 a week after tax.

    If you did the same amount of work in the city you’d end up with the same amount.

    That’s why they make big money, they work long hours with no weekends. Nothing at all to do with the benevolence of the mining companies.

  15. Kevin 800 – I agree with you for there is something difference about this result, the NSW one less so for that was a government that had worn out its welcome but Anna Bligh was brilliant last year and historically that sort of leadership would see you getting re-elected with an increased majority and if the RBA is to be believed the Queensland economy is benefiting from a massive mining boom.

  16. mexican beemer,

    Place whatever judgment you may chose on my miserable wailings ( too much wine to think up any sort of reasonable explanation) I don’t care anymore.

    If Bilbo doesn’t know what I am referring to, then there is no much hope for him.

    You do know William, don’t you. It is just between you and me.

  17. Dropped in late, but I note that the LNP is projected to get 78 out 89 seats with less than 50% of the primary vote. I wonder at the wisdom of unicameral parliaments, optional preferential voting and electoral systems without any element of proportional voting. In fact, I don’t wonder. I expect Liberal and Labor in Queensland will continue to keep their democratically weak system, as neither have amended it despite suffering from it at times.

  18. Gee Wizz @ 649
    [Putting in $1000 and knowing the government would put in $1500 was a great motivator to increase my super. In the 2007 budget porkathon Howard did a bonus payment of ANOTHER $1500 for the 2006-2007 Financial year. That means my super had $3000 put in for my $1000 for that financial year. ]
    Just in time for the GFC to wipe out around half of it.

  19. Scorpio, I think the point you’re missing is that being the egotistical jerk you say I am, I get into so many of these quarrels that I lose track of them all. So like I keep saying, I genuinely don’t know what you’re talking about. Maybe you’re still annoyed that I told you six weeks ago that Labor was going to get “thumped”. You didn’t take it well at the time, as I recall.

  20. [If you did the same amount of work in the city you’d end up with the same amount.

    That’s why they make big money, they work long hours with no weekends. Nothing at all to do with the benevolence of the mining companies.]

    Sounds about right there Dan G.

    It’s not a question of abnormally generous hourly pay rates or abnormally generous salaries. It’s just application of overtime worked to pretty-basic normal ordinary-time rates.

    As you say, a labourer working in Beenleigh would get the same were he to be required to work 12 hour days, 7 days a week.

  21. [ Just in time for the GFC to wipe out around half of it. [

    Dan, you don’t know how lucky you are. If they’d had their way,they’d have had the bloody lot.

  22. William Bowe,

    [ Scorpio, I think the point you’re missing is that being the egotistical jerk you say I am, I get into so many of these quarrels that I lose track of them all. ]

    That’s just a load of crap. You should know exactly what I was referring to.

    If by the slim chance that you don’t, please give my e-mail address to your good mother so that I can let her know just what a prat her son really is.

    You think an apology is to say that you are sorry that someone has been offended. If you have been the party that has caused the offending, that apparently is of no consequence and needs no direct apology.

    The fact that you feel apologetic towards the person is OK?

    Blimey, even your long suffering Mum would shake her head at that one!

    Maybe it’s time to take her off this page?

  23. smithe

    I know that from personal experience. Back in the mid to late 80’s I worked a “shitkicker” on various mine sites around Cue/Meekatharra*/Mt Magnet.

    I can’t remember what the hourly rate was, but it amounted to around $700 a week after tax (allowing for inflation that’s about eleventy gazillion in today’s money according to my Barnaby-Calculator :wink:).

    * If the universe ever needs an enema, they’ll stick the tube in Meekatharra 😆

  24. [I know that from personal experience. Back in the mid to late 80′s I worked a “shitkicker” on various mine sites around Cue/Meekatharra*/Mt Magnet.]

    Me too, Dan. I was a labourer at Saraji Qld (then a construction site for a mine and coal processing plant for 3 months over Dec-Feb 1974, then at Wickham WA (export and treatment point for the Pannawnica iron mine) in a crusher/ sinter plant over the same period in ’75 and ’76.

    Uni vacation jobs.

    And all places were fly-blown shit holes of the first water.

    I learned a new meaning to the word ‘waste’ in each of them, too. The amount of heavy and expensive equipment the mining and construction companies thought nothing of trashing made by eyes bulge.

    For example, every now and again the 500-1000Hp electric motors runing the conveyors needed servicing. Instead of doing so (something that would require the conveyor to be shut doen so that it could be thoroughly cleaned-out and lubricated) the compant would just keep running the thing until it failed. They then replaced the motor unit as quickly as possible and kept-on trucking. The ruined unit was sometimes refurbished (if that was cosidered economical, having regard to its level of damage) or more often trashed and sold as scrap.

    You’d see these large electric motors rusting away on the waste dump.

    These guys had figured that the half-day’s lost production involved in servicing the motor was more damaging to the bottom line that the cost of forking-out for a new motor every 18 months or so. It would make an engineer weep.

    What a fuacking waste.

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