Queensland election live

9.25pm. ABC computer has Maryborough back to LNP gain, after lapsing to LNP ahead for a while there.

9.07pm. Though as Antony notes, what has saved Curtis Pitt in Mulgrave is the surge to Katter’s Australian Party in north Queensland, much of which has exhausted.

9.05pm. Labor members who distinguished themselves by suffering swings of less than 10 per cent: Di Farmer in Bulimba, who has her nose in front; Jason O’Brien, whose 4.5 per cent swing against was good but not good enough; Cameron Dick in Greenslopes, likewise good but not good enough; Curtis Pitt, who has had a big personal win in retaining Mulgrave against a swing of 6.6 per cent; Anna Bligh in South Brisbane, who has actually held South Brisbane quite comfortably; Mandy Johnstone in Townsville; and Simon Finn, who might yet hold in Yeerongpilly in the face of a 9 per cent swing, but is nonetheless behind.

9.04pm. Antony cautious about the LNP winning Maryborough.

8.49pm. ABC computer promotes Bulimba and Mulgrave from ALP ahead to ALP retain. Of the eight seats where they’re in front, there are now seven down as “ALP gain”, with only Mackay remaining as “ALP ahead”. Waterford has gone from “LNP ahead” to “LNP gain”. By this reckoning, Labor’s absolute best case scenario is now nine seats.

8.39pm. ABC computer has dialled Maryborough back from LNP gain to LNP ahead.

8.25pm. The KAP may yet have an outside hope in Thuringowa if Labor preferences favour them strongly. The primary votes are 36.0 per cent for the LNP, 30.6 per cent for the KAP and 27.4 per cent for labor. Antony Green appears not to think so though. Bob Katter sounding bullish, for what it’s worth.

8.18pm. Sorry, got confused there – it has stayed on eight. Mulgrave now up from ALP ahead to ALP retain.

8.12pm. ABC now down to seven seats with Labor ahead: retaining Bundamba, Inala, Rockhampton, South Brisbane and Woodridge, ahead in Bulimba, Mackay and Mulgrave. LNP ahead in Waterford and Yeerongpilly. Everything else compared for the LNP, except Mount Isa and Dalrympe for Katter’s Australian Party, Nicklin and Gladstone retained by independents.

8.10pm. ABC computer now calling independent Chris Foley’s seat of Maryborough for the LNP.

7.56pm. ABC computer now has Labor ahead in only eight seats.

7.45pm. As noted by Antony, the KAP has not made huge gains out of coal seam gas in the Darling Downs: its strength remains very much off the back of Katter in the north.

7.44pm. Antony Green not buying Seeney’s line that Peter Wellington is in trouble in Nicklin.

7.42pm. ABC calling Ipswich West for LNP.

7.41pm. ABC calling South Brisbane for Anna Bligh.

7.31pm. Of the four independents, only Liz Cunningham in Gladstone is safe. Close contest in Maryborough between independent incumbent Chris Foley and LNP challenger Anne Maddern. Dissonance between the ABC computer (IND retain) and what Jeff Seeney says (LNP looking good) with Peter Wellington’s seat of Nicklin. LNP easily recovers Burnett, where Rob Messenger quit the party mid-term. Pretty clear I think that the KAP will win Mount Isa and Dalrymple, but no more.

7.30pm. The ABC website’s predictions columns has swung into action. Bundamba, Inala, Rockhampton and Woodridge, and is ahead in Bulimba, Mackay, Mulgrave, Nudgee and South Brisbane. They could conceivably win Logan, Mundingburra, Springwood and Waterford, but there are too few figures in from them. They are behind in Cook, Lytton, Townsville and Yeerongpilly, but not gone yet.

7.28pm. Jeff Seeney sounding confident about Nicklin, but the ABC computer is calling it for Peter Wellington.

7.24pm. With a quarter of the vote counted, the ABC computer has Anna Bligh edging back ahead in South Brisbane. But clearly Andrew Fraser and Cameron Dick are gone.

7.16pm. ABC’s two-party preferred projection is about 64-36, so the exit polls are looking good.

7.15pm. ABC computer projection, when bold calls are made where one or other party is merely “ahead”, now has Labor down to 10 from 14 earlier.

7.14pm. ABC computer graphic says three seats for KAP, but I can’t see anything beyond Mount Isa and Dalrymple.

7.13pm. Carl Rackemann (KAP) appears to be falling well short in Nanango; LNP’s Deb Frecklington to win comfortably.

7.07pm. Spare a thought for Peter Beattie’s old seat of Brisbane Central: he held it by 25 per cent after the 2001 election, ABC computer now calling it for LNP (results on site lagging behind what we’re getting on television).

7.06pm. Oh yeah, Ashgrove. ABC computer has Campbell Newman romping home by 9 per cent.

7.05pm. Peter Wellington firming up in Nicklin.

7.02pm. Antony’s casualty list: Everton, Broadwater, Cook, Barron River, Townsville North, Whitsunday, Southport, Townsville, Cairns, Mansfield, Kallangur, Pine Rivers, Mount Ommaney, Burleigh, Pumicestone, Mount Coot-tha, Redcliffe, Brisbane Central, Albert, Mundingburra, Greenslopes, Ashgrove, Murrumba, Stafford, Thuringowa, Algester, Stretton, Sunnybank, Lytton.

6.54pm. Courtesy of Psephos in comments, Labor expects to lose Capalaba, which you would expect given the overall swing: the margin is 9.7 per cent.

6.52pm. Peter Wellington with a slight primary vote lead in Nicklin, but booth-matching shows a huge and decisive swing to the LNP. Probably want more figures though.

6.51pm. Anna Bligh trailing on the primary vote in South Brisbane, and slightly behind on the primary vote. But Greens preferences might save her.

6.49pm. Antony cites a swing of 13 per cent, placing the result nearer Newspoll than the exit polls which had it slightly higher. However, it may yet change. The LNP has recovered Beaudesert, where its member Aidan McLindon had defected to the KAP, which was not unexpected.

6.47pm. Nothing appearing in the “predictions” column on the ABC results page, which is bothersome because it’s the best way to follow the action when seats are falling by the bucketload.

6.42pm. As Antony notes, early results hard to read exactly because of small rural booth results: assumptions are being made about Katter’s Australian Party preferences, which constitute a considerable share of the vote. However, the ABC computer is already set to tick over to a majority for the LNP. More than 20 seats have fallen, and it’s happening too quickly for me to keep up.

6.32pm. ABC computer already calling 22 seats for the LNP and one for Labor.

6.30pm. Jeff Seeney claims Katter’s Australian Party vote well short of what they would need on small booths.

6.26pm. Two small booths in from Dalrymple: very early days of course, but encouraging for KAP incumbent Shane Knuth on 50.0 per cent.

5.19pm. Sky’s exit poll shows a 15.3 per cent swing. They appear to have done the right thing this time and told us what the swing was, rather than publishing a bewildering two-party preferred figure without telling us what seats were polled, as they have done in the past. These were the five most marginal seats: Chatsworth and Everton in Brisbane, Broadwater on the Gold Coast, Cook on the Cape York Peninsula and Barron River in Cairns.

5.10pm. Peter Black at Essential Research relates on Twitter that a Galaxy exit poll conducted for Channel Nine has the LNP’s two-party lead at 63-37.

4.40pm. Closure of polls still over an hour away, but Sky News has published its first exit poll results, only providing material on the most important factor in determining vote choice. As usual, these are hard to read, because they apparently target only the five most marginal seats. If this is to be taken literally, they have chosen seats which are pretty meaningless in the context of this election: all will be easily won by the LNP. For what it’s worth, they have the cost of living at 69 per cent, delivery of state servies at 63 per cent, carbon tax at 44 per cent, mining tax at 35 per cent and Campbell Newman’s business dealings at 17 per cent. I presume respondents were asked in turn whether each of these issues were important to them.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

837 comments on “Queensland election live”

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  1. Boerwar:

    Agree with you about Kroger. Aside from the hysterical hyperbowl, he has a tendency to drift off his original point and start to make new points. Very disjointing.

  2. Puff you puff too much. We’ve had our dark decades of squandered wealth, people dying far too much in our hospitals, asset sales we didn’t agree to and unethical family bashing.

    You have no objective bone in your body… You were bleating for people to vote ALP in the last NSW election??!!!!!!! How could you contemplate that in good faith??????

    Bye bye Bligh, here’s your hat, what’s your hurry?

  3. Federal Labor has an overwhelming lesson from the Queensland state election. The Coalition owns the COL issue because the punters ovewhelmingly believe that the Coalition is the superior economic manager.

    If the Coalition succeeds in falsely conflating COL and carbon tax, Federal Labor is gone in 18 months time.

  4. PTMD

    It is not all bad.

    Ms Bligh abused parliamentary privilege, thereby demonstrating that she is unfit for the position of premier. Out she goes.

    Mr Newman has 18 months to persuade Queenslanders that the LNP and the Coalition are on the nose.

    I believe he will give it his best shot.

  5. MW (copied from last string)

    There is no need to get abusive.

    [Boerwar. As usual, you talk through your boder. Singapore is perhaps the closest and most successful ‘benevolent dictatorship’ in our modern era. The people’s action party has ruled continuously since 1959 and almost every commentator on the planet regards Singapore as a ‘single party state’. Yet it is renowned for being free of corruption, low in crime, taxes (less than 7% of gross for the median wage earner) and has the highest rate of state sponsored home ownership in Asia. Malevolent? Singapore? Arse dialogue, Boer.]

    As it turns out, I spend rather a lot of time in Singapore and I always take the trouble to catch up with the local issues and the local politics. This is in the context of having studie South-east Asian History formally at Uni and informally for the past 40 years.

    I can tell you that Singapore is not a dictatorship. By way of demonstration, the ruling party got rather a significant touch up in the last election and significant measures introduced in the latest budget reflects the very real fright that they got.

  6. Boer Federal Labor is a train wreck of its own making. Not ready to govern in 2007 and still acting like an opposition in 2012.

    When polls show an incompetent government bagging an opposition making poll headway, the dumbest thing you can do is keep bagging them….bligh didn’t learn in 2012 and federal ALP uses the strategy all the time… Idiots.

  7. Stand by for more dark decades of squandered wealth and asset sales, with Mr Palmer and the white shoe brigade as the beneficiaries. Good luck with the hospitals – they were not high on the agenda of Joh and co.

  8. Hello
    voted early and was pretty busy.
    At my polling place there was heaps of lnp supporters handing out htv. cards, a couple of greens and 1 katter. No labor

  9. rua

    Yep. My two points were:

    (1) That if Ms Bligh used parliamentary privilege to state that Mr Newman should be in jail she had better have some powerful evidence. She did not.
    (2) Cf the CMC, Mr Campbell with give it his best shot to demonstrate that he is on the nose.

  10. I think Anna Bligh will lose her seat as the swing in the SE will be around 15 – 16%
    I’m certain everything in SE queensland from Logan will be gone for labor.
    I have them hanging on at Mulgrave though and Thuringowa JUST…..

    The only seats which are a certain hold:

    I think maybe we can call it an indoor cricket team?

  11. Boer. You are still tlaking through your arse. I have lived there in Singapore and it is a single party state that is phenomenally successful. Iassume also that you don’t understand the word ‘metaphorical’ . I know naunces are wasted on you and that you have never demonstrated a tendency to argue rationally on this site. All you have is bluster.

    The point is that sometimes, overwhelming majorities (what you were referring to as ‘dictatorships’) are not ALL malevolent. Your point is, therefore, invalid. QED.

  12. [“Hey Kroger if you are going to make commentary on seats learn how to pronounce them.”]

    Don’t worry, we have news presenters based in Rockhampton and Sunshine Coast who pretend to be the “local news” for Townsville and have no idea how to pronounce area names.

    I have seen Bohle(Pronounced Bowl-Lee) called “The Bowl” and have heard Giru(Pronounced Ga-Roo) called Gear-Ru. Seriously news reporters should be forced to do geography class on their state before being able to present “local news”.

  13. Mick Wilkinson,

    [Small uptake of HTVs on Brissie booths in North West. Bins full of them now. People came in knowing just hownthey want to vote.

    Some very very experienced and varied members now coming into QLD parliament: ex CEOs, businessmen and women, youth workers, Social workers, Doctors, Lawyers, Builders, Teachers, ex Navy, ex Army…. Not a single pimple faced party hack staffer, not a single union thug… A far more representative collection of men and women from all walks of life… Hey! Just like a real democracy should probably be!!!!! ]

    Yeah and if they vote on traditional party lines as they will, they will all have to fulfill the wishes of their sponsor, Clive Palmer & Associates.

    Yeah, what a fantastic bit of democratic representation we are being saddled with now for the next 3 years.

  14. Boerwar,
    There is always that. It shouldn’t take long, as in NSW and Victoria.
    Mick, the worst of Labor is better than the best of Liberal. Letting any of those reactionary, theocratic psychopaths in power in the Liberal party anywhere near government is social vandalism.

  15. [Is the CMC in Qld the same as ICAC in NSW and CCC in WA?]

    More so, It is a standing royal commission that can investigate anything it wants to.

  16. [Mal Brough telling Sky voters made connection Btwn “two women” Bligh & Gillard dudding them. Uh huh.]

    Just made the connection, myself, Brough is a misogynist.

  17. mw@15[Boer Federal Labor is a train wreck of its own making. Not ready to govern in 2007 and still acting like an opposition in 2012.

    That must be one of the most ridiculous contributions ever made to this Blog (as well as being rather irrelevant to a thread on the Queensland Elections – not the Federal Elections).

  18. [“At my polling place there was heaps of lnp supporters handing out htv. cards, a couple of greens and 1 katter. No labor”]

    IMHO Labor are going no shows in “too hard basket” seats which seemingly includes seats with 8%+ swings required.

  19. I still don’t understand the purpose of HTV cards in a state where you can just vote 1.

    In fact I don’t understand how people don’t know how to vote at a Federal Election either, if you don’t know how to vote you probably shouldn’t be in my opinion.

  20. Mick Wilkinson,

    [ Bye bye Bligh, here’s your hat, what’s your hurry? ]

    [ Time for a real government now in Qld. ]

    Blimey, Mick. Don’t get too excited. Watch the heart. You want to stay alive long enough to watch the first Question Time of the new Qld Parliament, don’t you! 😉

  21. I cannot overstate how foolish several Labor officials were in publicly conceding the election in the last few days. Yes, everybody knew Labor were going to be massively defeated but the ALP needed to look like it was still fighting. By pre-conceding, the ALP has effectively told its remaining supporters to lay down their arms and remaining voters not to worry about it.

    I know the strategy is to make people vote Labor to give the new government have an effective opposition but it won’t pan out that way. Labor should consider themselves lucky for any seat they win tonight.

  22. [Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Saturday, March 24, 2012 at 6:13 pm | Permalink
    Poor Qld.]
    Whatever happens the sun (or rain clouds ) will still be up in the morning.
    In the long run we still live in a pretty good place which we should be grateful for.
    My main concern is how much power C.Palmer now has, or thinks he is entitled to have.

  23. The ‘other’ vote is down to 3% a/c the exit poll. If so, it indicates that voters were using ‘other’ as the preferred parking spot for around half a Queenslander in 10.

  24. Toorak Toff,

    [Stand by for more dark decades of squandered wealth and asset sales, with Mr Palmer and the white shoe brigade as the beneficiaries. Good luck with the hospitals – they were not high on the agenda of Joh and co. ]

    When Labor built the new hospital in Proserpine, they realised that the theatre equipment there was so antique that it now resides in the Waltzing Matilda Museum at Winton.

    True story. You want to see this stuff. It was deemed more than OK by the previous National Party Government though! 😉

    We could be headed for a back to the future trip. Wonder if they will try to recycle that mid 19th century equipment in a hospital near you!

    You being LNP voters in Qld! 😉

  25. [“For Queenslanders, we are thinking of you as you enter your dark hours.”]

    I’m really excited time for a change.

    I don’t get the doomsday predictions every time a government changes power, seems to happen whenever a Labor or Coalition government takes over. Change your governments often and keep them on their toes is my motto.

  26. [“My main concern is how much power C.Palmer now has, or thinks he is entitled to have.”]

    None, that only happens in hung parliaments.

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