Queensland election live

9.25pm. ABC computer has Maryborough back to LNP gain, after lapsing to LNP ahead for a while there.

9.07pm. Though as Antony notes, what has saved Curtis Pitt in Mulgrave is the surge to Katter’s Australian Party in north Queensland, much of which has exhausted.

9.05pm. Labor members who distinguished themselves by suffering swings of less than 10 per cent: Di Farmer in Bulimba, who has her nose in front; Jason O’Brien, whose 4.5 per cent swing against was good but not good enough; Cameron Dick in Greenslopes, likewise good but not good enough; Curtis Pitt, who has had a big personal win in retaining Mulgrave against a swing of 6.6 per cent; Anna Bligh in South Brisbane, who has actually held South Brisbane quite comfortably; Mandy Johnstone in Townsville; and Simon Finn, who might yet hold in Yeerongpilly in the face of a 9 per cent swing, but is nonetheless behind.

9.04pm. Antony cautious about the LNP winning Maryborough.

8.49pm. ABC computer promotes Bulimba and Mulgrave from ALP ahead to ALP retain. Of the eight seats where they’re in front, there are now seven down as “ALP gain”, with only Mackay remaining as “ALP ahead”. Waterford has gone from “LNP ahead” to “LNP gain”. By this reckoning, Labor’s absolute best case scenario is now nine seats.

8.39pm. ABC computer has dialled Maryborough back from LNP gain to LNP ahead.

8.25pm. The KAP may yet have an outside hope in Thuringowa if Labor preferences favour them strongly. The primary votes are 36.0 per cent for the LNP, 30.6 per cent for the KAP and 27.4 per cent for labor. Antony Green appears not to think so though. Bob Katter sounding bullish, for what it’s worth.

8.18pm. Sorry, got confused there – it has stayed on eight. Mulgrave now up from ALP ahead to ALP retain.

8.12pm. ABC now down to seven seats with Labor ahead: retaining Bundamba, Inala, Rockhampton, South Brisbane and Woodridge, ahead in Bulimba, Mackay and Mulgrave. LNP ahead in Waterford and Yeerongpilly. Everything else compared for the LNP, except Mount Isa and Dalrympe for Katter’s Australian Party, Nicklin and Gladstone retained by independents.

8.10pm. ABC computer now calling independent Chris Foley’s seat of Maryborough for the LNP.

7.56pm. ABC computer now has Labor ahead in only eight seats.

7.45pm. As noted by Antony, the KAP has not made huge gains out of coal seam gas in the Darling Downs: its strength remains very much off the back of Katter in the north.

7.44pm. Antony Green not buying Seeney’s line that Peter Wellington is in trouble in Nicklin.

7.42pm. ABC calling Ipswich West for LNP.

7.41pm. ABC calling South Brisbane for Anna Bligh.

7.31pm. Of the four independents, only Liz Cunningham in Gladstone is safe. Close contest in Maryborough between independent incumbent Chris Foley and LNP challenger Anne Maddern. Dissonance between the ABC computer (IND retain) and what Jeff Seeney says (LNP looking good) with Peter Wellington’s seat of Nicklin. LNP easily recovers Burnett, where Rob Messenger quit the party mid-term. Pretty clear I think that the KAP will win Mount Isa and Dalrymple, but no more.

7.30pm. The ABC website’s predictions columns has swung into action. Bundamba, Inala, Rockhampton and Woodridge, and is ahead in Bulimba, Mackay, Mulgrave, Nudgee and South Brisbane. They could conceivably win Logan, Mundingburra, Springwood and Waterford, but there are too few figures in from them. They are behind in Cook, Lytton, Townsville and Yeerongpilly, but not gone yet.

7.28pm. Jeff Seeney sounding confident about Nicklin, but the ABC computer is calling it for Peter Wellington.

7.24pm. With a quarter of the vote counted, the ABC computer has Anna Bligh edging back ahead in South Brisbane. But clearly Andrew Fraser and Cameron Dick are gone.

7.16pm. ABC’s two-party preferred projection is about 64-36, so the exit polls are looking good.

7.15pm. ABC computer projection, when bold calls are made where one or other party is merely “ahead”, now has Labor down to 10 from 14 earlier.

7.14pm. ABC computer graphic says three seats for KAP, but I can’t see anything beyond Mount Isa and Dalrymple.

7.13pm. Carl Rackemann (KAP) appears to be falling well short in Nanango; LNP’s Deb Frecklington to win comfortably.

7.07pm. Spare a thought for Peter Beattie’s old seat of Brisbane Central: he held it by 25 per cent after the 2001 election, ABC computer now calling it for LNP (results on site lagging behind what we’re getting on television).

7.06pm. Oh yeah, Ashgrove. ABC computer has Campbell Newman romping home by 9 per cent.

7.05pm. Peter Wellington firming up in Nicklin.

7.02pm. Antony’s casualty list: Everton, Broadwater, Cook, Barron River, Townsville North, Whitsunday, Southport, Townsville, Cairns, Mansfield, Kallangur, Pine Rivers, Mount Ommaney, Burleigh, Pumicestone, Mount Coot-tha, Redcliffe, Brisbane Central, Albert, Mundingburra, Greenslopes, Ashgrove, Murrumba, Stafford, Thuringowa, Algester, Stretton, Sunnybank, Lytton.

6.54pm. Courtesy of Psephos in comments, Labor expects to lose Capalaba, which you would expect given the overall swing: the margin is 9.7 per cent.

6.52pm. Peter Wellington with a slight primary vote lead in Nicklin, but booth-matching shows a huge and decisive swing to the LNP. Probably want more figures though.

6.51pm. Anna Bligh trailing on the primary vote in South Brisbane, and slightly behind on the primary vote. But Greens preferences might save her.

6.49pm. Antony cites a swing of 13 per cent, placing the result nearer Newspoll than the exit polls which had it slightly higher. However, it may yet change. The LNP has recovered Beaudesert, where its member Aidan McLindon had defected to the KAP, which was not unexpected.

6.47pm. Nothing appearing in the “predictions” column on the ABC results page, which is bothersome because it’s the best way to follow the action when seats are falling by the bucketload.

6.42pm. As Antony notes, early results hard to read exactly because of small rural booth results: assumptions are being made about Katter’s Australian Party preferences, which constitute a considerable share of the vote. However, the ABC computer is already set to tick over to a majority for the LNP. More than 20 seats have fallen, and it’s happening too quickly for me to keep up.

6.32pm. ABC computer already calling 22 seats for the LNP and one for Labor.

6.30pm. Jeff Seeney claims Katter’s Australian Party vote well short of what they would need on small booths.

6.26pm. Two small booths in from Dalrymple: very early days of course, but encouraging for KAP incumbent Shane Knuth on 50.0 per cent.

5.19pm. Sky’s exit poll shows a 15.3 per cent swing. They appear to have done the right thing this time and told us what the swing was, rather than publishing a bewildering two-party preferred figure without telling us what seats were polled, as they have done in the past. These were the five most marginal seats: Chatsworth and Everton in Brisbane, Broadwater on the Gold Coast, Cook on the Cape York Peninsula and Barron River in Cairns.

5.10pm. Peter Black at Essential Research relates on Twitter that a Galaxy exit poll conducted for Channel Nine has the LNP’s two-party lead at 63-37.

4.40pm. Closure of polls still over an hour away, but Sky News has published its first exit poll results, only providing material on the most important factor in determining vote choice. As usual, these are hard to read, because they apparently target only the five most marginal seats. If this is to be taken literally, they have chosen seats which are pretty meaningless in the context of this election: all will be easily won by the LNP. For what it’s worth, they have the cost of living at 69 per cent, delivery of state servies at 63 per cent, carbon tax at 44 per cent, mining tax at 35 per cent and Campbell Newman’s business dealings at 17 per cent. I presume respondents were asked in turn whether each of these issues were important to them.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

837 comments on “Queensland election live”

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  1. [William Bowe
    Posted Saturday, March 24, 2012 at 6:08 pm | Permalink
    Channel Nine/Galaxy exit poll has 2PP at 63-37.]

    One of the big problems with an exit poll in these circumstances is that the rump of ALP voters would be MUCH more likely to be embarrased to admit to voting for the ALP, so the response rate is really pivotal, and I haven’t heard it reported yet.

    If the response rate was good (80%) then Bligh herself would be in danger, if the response rate is poor (<50%) I wouldn't pay much heed. We will know the truth in little over an hour I suspect.

  2. Good question, Wal @ 27. They don’t even get recognised as a political party (for purposes of getting a party leader’s allowance) unless they have 9 members or 10% of the State-wide vote. Guess Labor will get the latter, but Katter probably not. So on your 5-each hypothesis, Labor would be the Opposition. But they’ll get 7 or 8 members, so certainly them. They may be a pretty stunned and quiet Opposition, though – Campbell’s real problems will come from his back-bench. [Talking of benches, the seating arrangements will be bizarre – LNPs to the right of the Speaker and most of the way round to the left!]

  3. [Chris Uhlmann ‏ @CUhlmann · Open
    Have spoken to QLD Labor insider. “It’s worse than people think”. He predicts Labor will be reduced to “between 5 and 15 seats” tonight.]

    who would that be Chris?

  4. Win News (Nine) has introduced “The Gurgler” showing Labor members going down it

    Something a bit more entertaining then the old bar graph

  5. 45

    So you think that the Earth is flat and the sun moves around it?

    I suggest you study the works of Copernicus.

  6. The reationary element of the commentariat is still busy counter-attacking against the Labor attack on Mr Newman’s character.

    If he really is as honest as the driven snow, with no substantive or apparent conflicts of interest, then their sensitivity is rather noble.

    If not, not.

  7. [Win News (Nine) has introduced “The Gurgler” showing Labor members going down it

    Something a bit more entertaining then the old bar graph]

    ROFL….. 😀 corny, cheesy… but still funny lol

    When will the election be declared?

  8. Skynews with Mr Gilbert in the chair, now giving Ms Atkinson and Mr Borbidge turns to opinionate. There is somebody else on the panel, presumably for balance, but he has yet to say a word.

  9. [The Finnigans
    Posted Saturday, March 24, 2012 at 6:37 pm | Permalink
    i still incline to support Gussie’s prediction of Minority (very Minor) Labor Govt]

    You may be right Finns, the ALP may win enough seats to govern the opposition benches over the Independents and Katterites, not for certain, but certainly possible…

  10. [There is somebody else on the panel, presumably for balance, but he has yet to say a word.]

    He has not even been introduced.

  11. Boerwar:

    Yes, it’s been particularly galling given Abbott’s and other federal Liberals continued personal and bitter attacks on Gillard.

  12. [There is somebody else on the panel, presumably for balance, but he has yet to say a word.]

    A journalist from the Australian. What would he add that former Liberals couldn’t? 😉

  13. [You may be right Finns, the ALP may win enough seats to govern the opposition benches over the Independents and Katterites, not for certain, but certainly possible…]

    Mod, do you have to be a dickhead even in your moment of triumph 😆

  14. ML
    What chance do you think Mr Campbell has of surviving a full term in relation to his colourful approach towards dealing with apparent conflicts of interest?

  15. Looking forward to Fed election in second half of 2013 but most particularly in the seat of Lilley where I confidently predict the political end of one of one of Labor’s stalwarts.
    These State elections are somewhat of a proxy for all us voters waiting to get rid of a Government we detest.
    Isn’t that right praying mantis.

  16. [scorpio
    Posted Saturday, March 24, 2012 at 6:44 pm | Permalink
    I’m really excited time for a change.

    I’d rather it be Katter’s mob than Palmer’s!]
    I agree . Katter isn’t stupid and clive is just evil

  17. [“WIN News is obviously not very interested in being taken seriously.”]

    It’s making what most people generally find to be a very boring event somewhat amusing and entertaining. The gurgler will be overdrive by about 7:30pm I reckon

  18. [“I’d rather it be Katter’s mob than Palmer’s!”]

    What does Palmer have to do with anything? I doubt he has changed one single vote

  19. Spiers has completely lost control of his panel. The Sky habit of letting reactionaries outshout their opponents has come home to roost.

    Next, please.

  20. Stanny, did you make the effort to read my response to you the other day? As always, you went very quiet when I explained to you that you were wrong. I take it you’re going to be back once again next week to say exactly the same wrong things yet again? Because if you are, you will be banned for trolling.

  21. [There is somebody else on the panel, presumably for balance, but he has yet to say a word.
    He has not even been introduced.]

    That would be the silent majority representative.

  22. [Mod, do you have to be a dickhead even in your moment of triumph ]

    I dunno, do you guys have to be such sore losers?

    You are gonna have to start getting used to it like we libs did for the last decade!

  23. @59

    Because the commercial networks just can’t report on something in a serious and sober manner, they have to dress it up to turn it into “entertainment”. Sigh.

  24. GW
    [What does Palmer have to do with anything? I doubt he has changed one single vote]

    lordy, lordy. Can there still be someone in the land who does not understand the power of money in elections?

  25. So, now that Clive has has his win, will he insist on a seat in cabinet? Minister for Mines, perhaps?

    I mean, if Can-Do can lead the Liberal from outside Parliament, surely Clive can handle a piffling ministry from the same position. Sure, he will probably at some stage have to get himself-in, but surely he could get some Liberal hack whose election he just paid for to fall on their sword for him. His statement of financial interests would require a truck.

    On the other hand, perhaps he could just insist on a desk in Can-Do’s office, with a couple of his gofers handling the phones. This should allow instant communication with the Premier. After all, there is precedent: Hawker’s desk in Rudd’s office.

  26. [For what it’s worth, they have the cost of living at 69 per cent, delivery of state servies at 63 per cent, carbon tax at 44 per cent, mining tax at 35 per cent and Campbell Newman’s business dealings at 17 per cent.]

    Possibly interesting from a Federal point of view is that the carbon and mining taxes are not the major issues and are well below the 50% mark. The cost of living (69%) is a hip-pocket issue and with the compensation starting to flow to pensioners and then the rest from 1st July, Tony Abbott and the Coalition have jammed themselves into a corner if they continue to say that they will withdraw it if they win the next Federal election.

  27. With the new trend in parachuting in talent, the LNP could give Mr Palmer the Department of Mining and Energy.

    It would clarify governance arrangements quite neatly.

  28. Boerwar:

    I’m wondering if the OO journo will actually get to say anything at all! Or is he just there to round out the numbers?

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