Queensland election live

9.25pm. ABC computer has Maryborough back to LNP gain, after lapsing to LNP ahead for a while there.

9.07pm. Though as Antony notes, what has saved Curtis Pitt in Mulgrave is the surge to Katter’s Australian Party in north Queensland, much of which has exhausted.

9.05pm. Labor members who distinguished themselves by suffering swings of less than 10 per cent: Di Farmer in Bulimba, who has her nose in front; Jason O’Brien, whose 4.5 per cent swing against was good but not good enough; Cameron Dick in Greenslopes, likewise good but not good enough; Curtis Pitt, who has had a big personal win in retaining Mulgrave against a swing of 6.6 per cent; Anna Bligh in South Brisbane, who has actually held South Brisbane quite comfortably; Mandy Johnstone in Townsville; and Simon Finn, who might yet hold in Yeerongpilly in the face of a 9 per cent swing, but is nonetheless behind.

9.04pm. Antony cautious about the LNP winning Maryborough.

8.49pm. ABC computer promotes Bulimba and Mulgrave from ALP ahead to ALP retain. Of the eight seats where they’re in front, there are now seven down as “ALP gain”, with only Mackay remaining as “ALP ahead”. Waterford has gone from “LNP ahead” to “LNP gain”. By this reckoning, Labor’s absolute best case scenario is now nine seats.

8.39pm. ABC computer has dialled Maryborough back from LNP gain to LNP ahead.

8.25pm. The KAP may yet have an outside hope in Thuringowa if Labor preferences favour them strongly. The primary votes are 36.0 per cent for the LNP, 30.6 per cent for the KAP and 27.4 per cent for labor. Antony Green appears not to think so though. Bob Katter sounding bullish, for what it’s worth.

8.18pm. Sorry, got confused there – it has stayed on eight. Mulgrave now up from ALP ahead to ALP retain.

8.12pm. ABC now down to seven seats with Labor ahead: retaining Bundamba, Inala, Rockhampton, South Brisbane and Woodridge, ahead in Bulimba, Mackay and Mulgrave. LNP ahead in Waterford and Yeerongpilly. Everything else compared for the LNP, except Mount Isa and Dalrympe for Katter’s Australian Party, Nicklin and Gladstone retained by independents.

8.10pm. ABC computer now calling independent Chris Foley’s seat of Maryborough for the LNP.

7.56pm. ABC computer now has Labor ahead in only eight seats.

7.45pm. As noted by Antony, the KAP has not made huge gains out of coal seam gas in the Darling Downs: its strength remains very much off the back of Katter in the north.

7.44pm. Antony Green not buying Seeney’s line that Peter Wellington is in trouble in Nicklin.

7.42pm. ABC calling Ipswich West for LNP.

7.41pm. ABC calling South Brisbane for Anna Bligh.

7.31pm. Of the four independents, only Liz Cunningham in Gladstone is safe. Close contest in Maryborough between independent incumbent Chris Foley and LNP challenger Anne Maddern. Dissonance between the ABC computer (IND retain) and what Jeff Seeney says (LNP looking good) with Peter Wellington’s seat of Nicklin. LNP easily recovers Burnett, where Rob Messenger quit the party mid-term. Pretty clear I think that the KAP will win Mount Isa and Dalrymple, but no more.

7.30pm. The ABC website’s predictions columns has swung into action. Bundamba, Inala, Rockhampton and Woodridge, and is ahead in Bulimba, Mackay, Mulgrave, Nudgee and South Brisbane. They could conceivably win Logan, Mundingburra, Springwood and Waterford, but there are too few figures in from them. They are behind in Cook, Lytton, Townsville and Yeerongpilly, but not gone yet.

7.28pm. Jeff Seeney sounding confident about Nicklin, but the ABC computer is calling it for Peter Wellington.

7.24pm. With a quarter of the vote counted, the ABC computer has Anna Bligh edging back ahead in South Brisbane. But clearly Andrew Fraser and Cameron Dick are gone.

7.16pm. ABC’s two-party preferred projection is about 64-36, so the exit polls are looking good.

7.15pm. ABC computer projection, when bold calls are made where one or other party is merely “ahead”, now has Labor down to 10 from 14 earlier.

7.14pm. ABC computer graphic says three seats for KAP, but I can’t see anything beyond Mount Isa and Dalrymple.

7.13pm. Carl Rackemann (KAP) appears to be falling well short in Nanango; LNP’s Deb Frecklington to win comfortably.

7.07pm. Spare a thought for Peter Beattie’s old seat of Brisbane Central: he held it by 25 per cent after the 2001 election, ABC computer now calling it for LNP (results on site lagging behind what we’re getting on television).

7.06pm. Oh yeah, Ashgrove. ABC computer has Campbell Newman romping home by 9 per cent.

7.05pm. Peter Wellington firming up in Nicklin.

7.02pm. Antony’s casualty list: Everton, Broadwater, Cook, Barron River, Townsville North, Whitsunday, Southport, Townsville, Cairns, Mansfield, Kallangur, Pine Rivers, Mount Ommaney, Burleigh, Pumicestone, Mount Coot-tha, Redcliffe, Brisbane Central, Albert, Mundingburra, Greenslopes, Ashgrove, Murrumba, Stafford, Thuringowa, Algester, Stretton, Sunnybank, Lytton.

6.54pm. Courtesy of Psephos in comments, Labor expects to lose Capalaba, which you would expect given the overall swing: the margin is 9.7 per cent.

6.52pm. Peter Wellington with a slight primary vote lead in Nicklin, but booth-matching shows a huge and decisive swing to the LNP. Probably want more figures though.

6.51pm. Anna Bligh trailing on the primary vote in South Brisbane, and slightly behind on the primary vote. But Greens preferences might save her.

6.49pm. Antony cites a swing of 13 per cent, placing the result nearer Newspoll than the exit polls which had it slightly higher. However, it may yet change. The LNP has recovered Beaudesert, where its member Aidan McLindon had defected to the KAP, which was not unexpected.

6.47pm. Nothing appearing in the “predictions” column on the ABC results page, which is bothersome because it’s the best way to follow the action when seats are falling by the bucketload.

6.42pm. As Antony notes, early results hard to read exactly because of small rural booth results: assumptions are being made about Katter’s Australian Party preferences, which constitute a considerable share of the vote. However, the ABC computer is already set to tick over to a majority for the LNP. More than 20 seats have fallen, and it’s happening too quickly for me to keep up.

6.32pm. ABC computer already calling 22 seats for the LNP and one for Labor.

6.30pm. Jeff Seeney claims Katter’s Australian Party vote well short of what they would need on small booths.

6.26pm. Two small booths in from Dalrymple: very early days of course, but encouraging for KAP incumbent Shane Knuth on 50.0 per cent.

5.19pm. Sky’s exit poll shows a 15.3 per cent swing. They appear to have done the right thing this time and told us what the swing was, rather than publishing a bewildering two-party preferred figure without telling us what seats were polled, as they have done in the past. These were the five most marginal seats: Chatsworth and Everton in Brisbane, Broadwater on the Gold Coast, Cook on the Cape York Peninsula and Barron River in Cairns.

5.10pm. Peter Black at Essential Research relates on Twitter that a Galaxy exit poll conducted for Channel Nine has the LNP’s two-party lead at 63-37.

4.40pm. Closure of polls still over an hour away, but Sky News has published its first exit poll results, only providing material on the most important factor in determining vote choice. As usual, these are hard to read, because they apparently target only the five most marginal seats. If this is to be taken literally, they have chosen seats which are pretty meaningless in the context of this election: all will be easily won by the LNP. For what it’s worth, they have the cost of living at 69 per cent, delivery of state servies at 63 per cent, carbon tax at 44 per cent, mining tax at 35 per cent and Campbell Newman’s business dealings at 17 per cent. I presume respondents were asked in turn whether each of these issues were important to them.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

837 comments on “Queensland election live”

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  1. 739

    Many of the KAP voters this time would have voted LNP last time but lots of ALP voters switched to the LNP making up for that loss in most seats.

  2. I liked AFV, it has features I enjoyed. I was happy to contribute. I skimmed over things I was not agreeing with and I appreciated the things I did. I am not complaining about AFV which I think has the potential to be a very useful progressive blog when the teething problems are worked out and the moderation is sorted. Everything is a learning experience.

    I am sure Bilbo does not want this to be a topic of conversation here so that is the last I will say on the matter.

  3. William Bowe,

    [Why don’t those who want to have a go at Frank set up their own blog from which to do so. Perhaps they could use it to conduct running commentary on what’s being discussed at Frank’s blog in an environment where they are free to say what they like about it, free from the tyrannical clutches of its moderator. ]

    That’s my first and only comment on it. It is most probably my last. I hope it is received in the context that it is meant!

  4. William 743 it wasn’t meant to. I expected KAP to take votes off the LNP however I was surprised by the amount of votes they took off Labor. It wasn’t meant to be a pro-LNP post.

  5. [Carey I think us normal folk often mistakenly believe politicians hold the opposite side in the same level of contempt often displayed in the wider community. Largely politicians give each other respect regardless of the political game.]

    Exactly. Also, when politicians break conventions or act discourteous, it’s usually from opposition, where they have more to gain from the order of things being subverted.

  6. [They are going to, WAIT FOR IT, “cut government waste”.]

    Too much! Pork-barreling of hillbilly seats and turning government largesse to the advantage of ravenous fat cats obviously won’t count as ‘government waste’. No, it’ll be ‘responsible investment’. Their platitudes will do them in eventually…

  7. I was perhaps being a bit subtle there, DavidWH. My point was that there were many, many remarkable things about this election, of which that was just one. Anyway, who’s to say that that’s what actually happened? It may have all been churn – ALP voters moving to the LNP, obscuring LNP voters moving to KAP.

  8. [Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Sunday, March 25, 2012 at 12:06 am | Permalink

    Far out, you have courage. I hope the stuff-up is big enough to damage Abbott and federal N/LP. How about the remaining ALP members resign en masse and just leave the field of battle to the victors? That could be really funny.]


    Funny you should say that. I had the same thought fleetingly earlier in the night. If the people of Queensland want a one party state, let them have it for a while and see how it feels. Not very good I would imagine.

    I believe it is always a big mistake to be handing massive majorities to either side of politics. It only breeds complacency, arrogance and in many cases corruption. The only real way to keep the bastards humble and honest IMHO is to keep it nice and close, so there is always the chance of them losing government at the next election. It’s the only language that politicians understand. Otherwise they just shit all over us.

  9. In truth people that work inside the political world mostly put a side political differences unless there is a real issue of differences.

    I have walked into ALP ministerial suites and seen Liberal Party aligned business people waiting for a meeting and Liberal Party ministers openly discussing issues with ALP aligned people.

    The real partisan passionate tends to be found at the grass roots but when all the shouting is said and done both sides do most of the time work reasonable well together

  10. Sorry I misunderstood your meaning William. Yes there were a number of amazing results coming out of this election. The fact at one stage they were calling Bligh in trouble brought back memories of 2007.

    Newman taking the victory speech before his seat was even declared would have to be almost unique?

    Just the size of the swing and the number of seats changing side was amazing.

    Crazy night.

  11. Government waste. yes good but what is waste, one person waste might not be waste

    Lets say a business people doesn’t think much about record management and views it as waste until court action requires them to produce documents that might if found save millions of dollars.

    Basically waste is something you just don’t think is important to spend money on, even if there is a really good reason for it, a bit like O&HS, a real pain o but when you ignore it then it will be more than just a pain both to your staff and the company bottom line.

  12. William I’m not sure the amount of votes could be put down to churn alone it it’s not my area of expertise. It seemed more like a split of people who decided to switch from Labor who wanted to hedge their bets.

  13. Bemused I did but not what you would have wanted. I helped get a very competent lady elected in Pumistone. Sorry 🙁

  14. Are you sensing a Richard Face moment.

    P.S in 1998 Richard Face conceded defeat only to go on and win the seat

  15. The Liberal Party cannot serious talk about waste why they continue to support Job Services Australia and its little bro

  16. Zoidlord I think many of us actually respect Bligh so I don’t think it was just about getting rid of her. Mind you she used up a lot of that respect during the campaign however you can’t ignore how she stood up during the disasters of 2011.

    Basically it was just time.

  17. Psephos,
    [ I’d aim to win Cook, Townsville, Keppel, Cairns, Mundingburra, Barron River, Toowoomba North and South, Whitsunday, Bundaberg, Hervey Bay, Thuringowa and Gladstone next time. ]

    They should have won them this time! Unless the Qld Labor Party gets the local Union movement inside the tent and working towards a common goal, then the LNP is given a free hit every time there is a difference of opinion between the two parts of the same movement!

    Blimey, it makes it hard to be a part of both at times!

  18. Mexicanbeemer,

    Given time enough of the bogan element (which I believe, generally speaking, handed power to the new mob) will come out second best from their government’s hypocritical approach to “stopping government waste” to become irate and exact their ballot box revenge. In time, Grasshopper, in time…

  19. [Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Sunday, March 25, 2012 at 12:06 am | Permalink

    Far out, you have courage. I hope the stuff-up is big enough to damage Abbott and federal N/LP. How about the remaining ALP members resign en masse and just leave the field of battle to the victors? That could be really funny.]


    Yes, Ffunny in a tragic sort of way, I suppose, but completely the wrong thing to do.

    No, QLD Labor must stick it-out, adopt a low profile and wait for the inevitable stuff-ups.

    Ahd stuff-ups by the LNP there will be – rest assured – stuff-ups aplenty.

    Quite apart from the fundamental and inherent schisms within the Governing LNP (between ex-Agrarian Socialists and the Neo-Con tea baggers of the SEQ ex-Libs) there will be the inevitable ructions and contradictions between trying to ‘cut government waste’ (read: Slashing programs and public-service jobs) while at the same time keeping the herd happy and contented with the balance between the taxes they’re paying the State and the benefits the’re receiving from it.

    This is the fundamental problem with offering to be all things to all people, without providing specific costed policies.

    What people thought they were buying will bear little resemblance, IMHO, to what they actually get.

    Just wait for the first hike in fuel/rego costs. Or the first attempt to cut police/nurses wages and conditions.

    I’d give Can-Do 6 months (probably less) before the first real cracks appear and another 6 months after that before the peeps start to gripe and whinge. Another 6 months and Can-Do will be known as Can’t-Do and things should be bubbling away nicely north of the Tweed.

    With a bit of luck, this growing Qld season of discontent will coincide nicely with the next Federal Poll, where another Tory leader will be offering vague ‘cut the waste’ slogans without the benefit of detailed costed policies.

    We’ve already had the beginnings of a similar malaise in Victoria (especially) and in NSW, but it’s only getting off the ground in those States, particularly in NSW.

    There’s nothing quite like the bitter dregs of buyer’s remorse. Give it time, comrades, give it time.

    And with 18 months to go before the PM has to face the polls……….Things are going to get really interesting (in the Chinese sense) for the Tories.

  20. Remarkable night. I did post a few comments in various places during the last 24 hours that I thought a result of below 10 seats was credible but I didn’t think it was actually going to happen. In NSW the very worst predictions didn’t happen (eg Richo’s 12-15 seats and it ended up at 20) but in this case they were generally exceeded. Running up the white flag was not exactly a stunning success.

    Would be interesting to check results from various Aus elections since say 1920 and find out if there is any corellation at all between margin of defeat for an incumbent government (in terms of % of seats won) and time out of office, but I don’t think it would be all that strong since sometimes an opposition wins narrowly then rules for a long time. And there’s really nothing like this I can think of to compare in terms of seat proportion (1974 is similar but Labor was already in Opposition when that happened.)

    Re #656:

    [Tas: Polling suggests the Libs could get the 13 seats required for govt, if not they will fall short but there may be pressure on the Greens to allow them to govern. This, of course, may change if Abbott is PM.]

    If the polling is to be believed the Libs are currently on course to get them easily. I agree with Antony’s comment that the Liberals would have to do something remarkably stupid to not win the next Tas state election outright. (Minor scandals like going to the horsies instead of meeting with potential pulp mill investors don’t quite cut it.)

  21. Surely Tasmania should look at the mess in the eastern states and…uh oh, that didn’t work for Qld with Vic and NSW now did it?

  22. [Surely Tasmania should look at the mess in the eastern states and…uh oh, that didn’t work for Qld with Vic and NSW now did it?]

    TBH, it’s a tired, arrogant line that doesn’t work. Nobody cares about the politics of a state when they vote, they care about the issues of the state.

  23. I was really hoping that Newman would get pipped by Kate, but she really did seem to be a careerist. She could spout the party line just fine, but could she convince anyone of her abilities to be able to interpret complex business records and information?

    At least none of the ALP rusties here haven’t been silly enough to suggest that the ALP would have done worse had Rudd won the leadership spill.

    I think it is shameful that confessions and others had the gall to attack Hawker when he was denied his best trick.

    Interesting that a good portion of greens preferences have flowed to the LNP. Perhaps we’re not all commies?

    The ALP must be on their toes for Australia. Australians trusted the ALP in 07, but they don’t trust them now broadly. That is not to say that the tories are more trusted, just the perception that they at least know how to interpret business records and information.

    Out of the muck that is the two party system where none are trustworthy, the ones who are said and accepted to know the difference between a balance sheet and a profit and loss will win every time.

    Not to say this knowledge is foreign to the ALP, just that I can’t see reps like Jones being up to this. I am not being sexist here, Kate is just an example of someone who probably hasn’t yet absorbed the finer points of this knowledge. With further research, I am sure I could name plenty of ALP fellas with this problem – Howes comes to mind. Pollies like Kate can win in the good times, but not tonight. I also note that the greens may also have this problem.

    Hint – pay attention to members who don’t follow the standard entry modes into preselection. They might know a few things.

  24. The Anna Bligh post-election Martini:

    2 x Sudafed tablets
    4 x sleeping pills
    2 x Panadeine Forte capsules
    4 shots of vodka
    2 shot of gin

    Grind up tablets
    Add to to cocktail shaker with crushed ice
    Shake until condensation forms on outside of shaker
    Pour into tall stemmed glass.
    Add 1 x Ferrero Rocher chocolate to the glass

    Drink in one gulp without breathing

  25. William Bowe,

    [Antony Green twending on Twitter (Poll Bludger, not so much). Would no doubt be trending higher if people spelt his name right. ]

    That could very well be the case if he didn’t come across as a right royal Torie apologist and shit upon progressive supporters here on PB.

    Common, Antony, (spelt right) where exactly are “you” coming from? You can hide behind twitter if you like, but we are still here!

    Why Oh why did you decide to lose your soul like the rest of the ABC sell-outs!

  26. Advice to anyone feeling blue: Go for a run (in your yard at this time of night). It’ll clear your head, fill you with endorphins, make you sleep better and is far healthier than poisoning yourself.

    (the hot shower at the end is a bonus)

  27. [“Many of the KAP voters this time would have voted LNP last time but lots of ALP voters switched to the LNP making up for that loss in most seats.”]

    The Borg was going on tonight with some incoherent whine about Katter stealing votes from Labor, which I’m not too sure what point he was trying to make as the LNP *MUST* have also stolen votes from Labor otherwise they wouldn’t have won.

    I can’t believe this idiot was ever the leader of the Liberals

  28. Oh, I do not remember. You must have said something creepily disgusting or disgustingly creepy, or at least I must have thought so.

  29. For those looking for reasons to explain this Queensland drubbing, nobody should settle for the “time” factor alone or even as a big part of the reason. The time factor explains defeat but not the incredible scale of it. It was “time” for the Coalition after 23 years federally and they only lost by nine seats. It was “time” for Howard and the damage was moderate enough to keep the party competitive at the next election. It was “time” for Keating and that one was still 54:46 not 64:36. Labor’s loss after the Gair split, the Nationals’ loss after the tumultuous end to the Joh era, Unsworth’s loss to Greiner, Carmen Lawrence, Kirner’s loss to Kennett … all long-serving governments that were given the boot to nobody’s surprise in the circumstances, but nothing remotely like this or NSW last year in terms of the magnitude of the crushing. (NSW Labor got off light in saving 20 seats last year thanks to electoral geography.)

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