Queensland election live

9.25pm. ABC computer has Maryborough back to LNP gain, after lapsing to LNP ahead for a while there.

9.07pm. Though as Antony notes, what has saved Curtis Pitt in Mulgrave is the surge to Katter’s Australian Party in north Queensland, much of which has exhausted.

9.05pm. Labor members who distinguished themselves by suffering swings of less than 10 per cent: Di Farmer in Bulimba, who has her nose in front; Jason O’Brien, whose 4.5 per cent swing against was good but not good enough; Cameron Dick in Greenslopes, likewise good but not good enough; Curtis Pitt, who has had a big personal win in retaining Mulgrave against a swing of 6.6 per cent; Anna Bligh in South Brisbane, who has actually held South Brisbane quite comfortably; Mandy Johnstone in Townsville; and Simon Finn, who might yet hold in Yeerongpilly in the face of a 9 per cent swing, but is nonetheless behind.

9.04pm. Antony cautious about the LNP winning Maryborough.

8.49pm. ABC computer promotes Bulimba and Mulgrave from ALP ahead to ALP retain. Of the eight seats where they’re in front, there are now seven down as “ALP gain”, with only Mackay remaining as “ALP ahead”. Waterford has gone from “LNP ahead” to “LNP gain”. By this reckoning, Labor’s absolute best case scenario is now nine seats.

8.39pm. ABC computer has dialled Maryborough back from LNP gain to LNP ahead.

8.25pm. The KAP may yet have an outside hope in Thuringowa if Labor preferences favour them strongly. The primary votes are 36.0 per cent for the LNP, 30.6 per cent for the KAP and 27.4 per cent for labor. Antony Green appears not to think so though. Bob Katter sounding bullish, for what it’s worth.

8.18pm. Sorry, got confused there – it has stayed on eight. Mulgrave now up from ALP ahead to ALP retain.

8.12pm. ABC now down to seven seats with Labor ahead: retaining Bundamba, Inala, Rockhampton, South Brisbane and Woodridge, ahead in Bulimba, Mackay and Mulgrave. LNP ahead in Waterford and Yeerongpilly. Everything else compared for the LNP, except Mount Isa and Dalrympe for Katter’s Australian Party, Nicklin and Gladstone retained by independents.

8.10pm. ABC computer now calling independent Chris Foley’s seat of Maryborough for the LNP.

7.56pm. ABC computer now has Labor ahead in only eight seats.

7.45pm. As noted by Antony, the KAP has not made huge gains out of coal seam gas in the Darling Downs: its strength remains very much off the back of Katter in the north.

7.44pm. Antony Green not buying Seeney’s line that Peter Wellington is in trouble in Nicklin.

7.42pm. ABC calling Ipswich West for LNP.

7.41pm. ABC calling South Brisbane for Anna Bligh.

7.31pm. Of the four independents, only Liz Cunningham in Gladstone is safe. Close contest in Maryborough between independent incumbent Chris Foley and LNP challenger Anne Maddern. Dissonance between the ABC computer (IND retain) and what Jeff Seeney says (LNP looking good) with Peter Wellington’s seat of Nicklin. LNP easily recovers Burnett, where Rob Messenger quit the party mid-term. Pretty clear I think that the KAP will win Mount Isa and Dalrymple, but no more.

7.30pm. The ABC website’s predictions columns has swung into action. Bundamba, Inala, Rockhampton and Woodridge, and is ahead in Bulimba, Mackay, Mulgrave, Nudgee and South Brisbane. They could conceivably win Logan, Mundingburra, Springwood and Waterford, but there are too few figures in from them. They are behind in Cook, Lytton, Townsville and Yeerongpilly, but not gone yet.

7.28pm. Jeff Seeney sounding confident about Nicklin, but the ABC computer is calling it for Peter Wellington.

7.24pm. With a quarter of the vote counted, the ABC computer has Anna Bligh edging back ahead in South Brisbane. But clearly Andrew Fraser and Cameron Dick are gone.

7.16pm. ABC’s two-party preferred projection is about 64-36, so the exit polls are looking good.

7.15pm. ABC computer projection, when bold calls are made where one or other party is merely “ahead”, now has Labor down to 10 from 14 earlier.

7.14pm. ABC computer graphic says three seats for KAP, but I can’t see anything beyond Mount Isa and Dalrymple.

7.13pm. Carl Rackemann (KAP) appears to be falling well short in Nanango; LNP’s Deb Frecklington to win comfortably.

7.07pm. Spare a thought for Peter Beattie’s old seat of Brisbane Central: he held it by 25 per cent after the 2001 election, ABC computer now calling it for LNP (results on site lagging behind what we’re getting on television).

7.06pm. Oh yeah, Ashgrove. ABC computer has Campbell Newman romping home by 9 per cent.

7.05pm. Peter Wellington firming up in Nicklin.

7.02pm. Antony’s casualty list: Everton, Broadwater, Cook, Barron River, Townsville North, Whitsunday, Southport, Townsville, Cairns, Mansfield, Kallangur, Pine Rivers, Mount Ommaney, Burleigh, Pumicestone, Mount Coot-tha, Redcliffe, Brisbane Central, Albert, Mundingburra, Greenslopes, Ashgrove, Murrumba, Stafford, Thuringowa, Algester, Stretton, Sunnybank, Lytton.

6.54pm. Courtesy of Psephos in comments, Labor expects to lose Capalaba, which you would expect given the overall swing: the margin is 9.7 per cent.

6.52pm. Peter Wellington with a slight primary vote lead in Nicklin, but booth-matching shows a huge and decisive swing to the LNP. Probably want more figures though.

6.51pm. Anna Bligh trailing on the primary vote in South Brisbane, and slightly behind on the primary vote. But Greens preferences might save her.

6.49pm. Antony cites a swing of 13 per cent, placing the result nearer Newspoll than the exit polls which had it slightly higher. However, it may yet change. The LNP has recovered Beaudesert, where its member Aidan McLindon had defected to the KAP, which was not unexpected.

6.47pm. Nothing appearing in the “predictions” column on the ABC results page, which is bothersome because it’s the best way to follow the action when seats are falling by the bucketload.

6.42pm. As Antony notes, early results hard to read exactly because of small rural booth results: assumptions are being made about Katter’s Australian Party preferences, which constitute a considerable share of the vote. However, the ABC computer is already set to tick over to a majority for the LNP. More than 20 seats have fallen, and it’s happening too quickly for me to keep up.

6.32pm. ABC computer already calling 22 seats for the LNP and one for Labor.

6.30pm. Jeff Seeney claims Katter’s Australian Party vote well short of what they would need on small booths.

6.26pm. Two small booths in from Dalrymple: very early days of course, but encouraging for KAP incumbent Shane Knuth on 50.0 per cent.

5.19pm. Sky’s exit poll shows a 15.3 per cent swing. They appear to have done the right thing this time and told us what the swing was, rather than publishing a bewildering two-party preferred figure without telling us what seats were polled, as they have done in the past. These were the five most marginal seats: Chatsworth and Everton in Brisbane, Broadwater on the Gold Coast, Cook on the Cape York Peninsula and Barron River in Cairns.

5.10pm. Peter Black at Essential Research relates on Twitter that a Galaxy exit poll conducted for Channel Nine has the LNP’s two-party lead at 63-37.

4.40pm. Closure of polls still over an hour away, but Sky News has published its first exit poll results, only providing material on the most important factor in determining vote choice. As usual, these are hard to read, because they apparently target only the five most marginal seats. If this is to be taken literally, they have chosen seats which are pretty meaningless in the context of this election: all will be easily won by the LNP. For what it’s worth, they have the cost of living at 69 per cent, delivery of state servies at 63 per cent, carbon tax at 44 per cent, mining tax at 35 per cent and Campbell Newman’s business dealings at 17 per cent. I presume respondents were asked in turn whether each of these issues were important to them.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

837 comments on “Queensland election live”

Comments Page 15 of 17
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  1. Puff, the Magic Dragon,

    [ I feel sorry for Qld bludgers, and we are prepared to grant asylum. ]

    No worries Puff. When The Tories up this way make a mess of it, they do it in a BIG way and this time, nobody’s going to miss it even though they try their best to make believe it isn’t happening! 😉

    Stock up on the popcorn and sit back and watch the show. This mob will make your eyes pop out, believe me. 😉

  2. [There is no law and nothing in the constitution regarding pairing. If someone forgot to vote in an election it is bad luck, they do not get their say, if someone did not turn up to a cricket game, you play with 10 players]

    Are you THAT stupid, Dovif?

    Pairing works both ways. In fact the government gives more pairs to the Opposition than the other war around.

    Jesus, what a drongo you are.

  3. Please indulge me this once, William, as I cannot log back into AFV.

    I am very sorry that the opportunity for development by having your own blog has been squandered. When you were being banned here and trying to deal with different opinions, including trolls, I spent a lot of time talking to you via twitter and email and trying to help you with different strategies to use, and I also advocated for you with William. I understood that you have barriers that other people may not have to deal with, and I wanted to help you enjoy PB and contribute with what I saw in you as very positive attributes. I often asked William to un-ban you so you would not be left without an online community to be a part of, and I was confident you could be a positive influence here.

    When you banned me from AFV before, after you had hurt me very, very much with your words, you ended up sending me an email. The email said that your colleague (I don’t want to use his name without asking) told you to apologise and that I could reapply for my username.

    Now you did not actually apologise, mind you, but I did reapply, although I have not felt very welcome at AFV since doing so. I can assure you I will not be reapplying again without a direct and sincere apology, for not behaving towards me as a gentleman should. If this means I will not have contact with your colleagues, with whom I enjoy discussions and whose skills, talents and discussions I have always enjoyed both here and at AFV, then that is the price of my dignity.

    I am deeply offended that you should try to tell me, a woman, where I might go and with whom I might dine. Where you believe you have gained such a right over me I have no idea, but make no mistake, I will not tolerate such an insult. You disappoint me.

    I always though you a better man.

    Puff The Magic Dragon.

  4. Sky News exit polls show what voters were most concerned about:

    ALP supporters

    – cost of living 61%
    – delivery of state services 58%
    – carbon tax 40%
    – mining tax 34%
    – Newman’s business dealings 32%

    LNP supporters

    – cost of living 71%
    – delivery of state services 67%
    – carbon tax 51%
    – mining tax 38%
    – Newman’s business dealings 6%

    So much for the following observation

    1. people differentiate between state and commonwalth issues, obviously 51% of Liberal supporter and 40% of ALP supporters does not

    2. this poll has no federal implication, same as 1

  5. I hope the country party didn’t throw out the phone box used for their 2000 party meetings, looks like Queensland Labor might find it handy in 2012.

  6. Scorps,

    Far out, you have courage. I hope the stuff-up is big enough to damage Abbott and federal N/LP. How about the remaining ALP members resign en masse and just leave the field of battle to the victors? That could be really funny.

  7. There’s no “protocal” that says a party leader can’t accuse another party leader of corruption under cover of privilege. They’ve been doing it since the Wars of the Roses. If you make a false accusation, you pay a political price (ask Malcolm Turnbull).

    Pairing is a parliamentary convention, convenient for both sides. Denying it is petty and short-sighted, and will come back to bite whoever does it.

  8. Carey Moore,

    At times like this there are few consolations apart from looking at the situation philosophically. It’s not much but I believe it’s accurate in the scheme of things.

  9. [Do you know what happens if the ALP does not reach 10 seats and therefore does not get party status in Qld]

    Dovif, as explained by John Pyke, a party receiving over 10% of the primary vote state-wide qualifies for party status with only 3 seats. The ALP will qualify under this.

  10. 695

    That is of course based on uniform swings. The swings will not be uniform. The swings outside SEQ will be bigger once 3 years of Brisbane dominated LNP government has happened. Both the ALP and KAP will do well outside SEQ.

  11. Bushfire Bill

    The fact is ALP benefits from pairing atm, and Liberals does not

    So I fully understand why ALP supporters would want pairing

    That does not make you a drongo

  12. Well boys and girls, I’m back home after a very long day and sad finish to it. So many good MPs given the boot on the back of a huge bunch of lies by Can’t Do’s and an even larger bunch of money by his ‘cronies of the Vested Interest.

    I hope all true believers will look upon this as an opportunity to renew and grow. Recruit new members and look for the next bunch of talent. Develop new policies and don’t let the LNP take the credit as the projects which have been started by the Bligh Govt come to fruition.

    Finally, try to get to the Mayday march and walk with the ALP to show solidarity and the fact we are a Party through the good times and the bad.

  13. As my dad always say you have good days and bad ones Labor should heed is words well, and LNP should use their time well.




  15. I hope all true believers will look upon this as an opportunity to renew and grow.

    Agree totally. Labor have been kicked in the family jewels well and proper and have a huge job in front of them, us.

    The electorate now have bought their tickets as well.

  16. Pairing in the federal parliament started when Fraser wanted to attend a meeting in Melbourne. The meeting time had been set to prevent his attendance because we was sitting in parliament. It does not have a long history.

  17. Tom, I think that is so. If I was the Qld ALP I’d make Pitt or Mulherin Leader and spend the next three years campaigning around the regions against this Brisbane business dominated economic rationalist etc etc government, and aim to win Cook, Townsville, Keppel, Cairns, Mundingburra, Barron River, Toowoomba North and South, Whitsunday, Bundaberg, Hervey Bay, Thuringowa and Gladstone next time. That would get Labor up to 20, even without winning anything in SEQ. That’s how Bracks beat Kennett in 1999, remember.

  18. OK dovif
    If you fully understand why the Labor Party wants pairing, what is stopping you from understanding why the Liberals should want it too?

  19. [That does not make you a drongo]

    Maybe, but that wasn’t your drongoid argument. You said it was unconstitutional and wrong.

    Likening parliament to not turning up to a cricket game is moronic and shows a basic misunderstanding of how politics in Australia works.

  20. Phil Vee

    IF the Liberals gets pairing, they will still lose a vote, so I don’t think the Liberals want pairing

    I also keep reading that the ALP member in here thinks that it was ok to attack Newman that way and he should not be allowed in parliament, but at the same time thinks Thompson has not done anything wrong

    It is just partisan bullshit

  21. 721

    I remember the 1999 election. In FNQ the ALP will face competition from the Katter Party. If the KAP win Thuringowa this election then they will likely retain it at the next election. I think a few Brisbane seats will swing back to the ALP. The Katter Party also has chances in seats that the ALP does not.

  22. [fredn, a quick Hansard search found a reference to pairing in 1909 so I suspect you may be wrong on that one.]
    No, that was the then Opposition Leader accusing the then Prime Minister of not having testicles.

  23. Now that Katter has failed to make a breakthrough he will fade away just as ON and FF have faded away. This was really all just an exercise to position his son to succeed him in Kennedy.

  24. Dojn’t know where this should be posted, but here’s good enough for the moment.

    For all those who thought I was joking about the Coalition’s “nanny” policy:

    [Abbott’s nanny state
    {Abbott} vowed that early in its first term, a Coalition government would have the Productivity Commission model the cost of expanding the childcare rebate to in-home care, such as nannies. But he stressed that any proposals would have to fit ”within the existing budget envelope”, given budget constraints which have propelled him to pledge an audit commission to find further spending cuts.]

    We’ve now come full circle. The party that continually decries “the Nanny State” wants to subsidize… nannies.

    Can things get any more stupid?

    It’s a blatant bribe, a return to middle-class welfare, rich babies worth ore than poor ones… the lot.



  25. dyspnoeia @ 677

    I think Frank’s had better days – either that or he has hankering for sitting in a big green chair while wearing black robes and white bands. He just booted Kezza for suggesting that reposting PB posts was boring and Puff for having a meal in Adelaide.

    I can understand how the poor bugger feels – Qld is a nightmare. But that’s a pretty steep attrition rate.

    Hopefully that will cause Kezza and Puff to see the light and no longer swim in that cesspool of intolerance.

  26. Psehpos,

    Good to see you posting again. Regrettably it only seems to be at election times. Now the Rudd thingy is behind us, any chance you can contribute more regularly?

  27. Well not a bad first game by GWS but the Swans just had too much class in the end.

    Queensland – Firstly I didn’t enjoy the Sky coverage, Bruce Hawker should be replaced in future by Richo unless Channel 9 had him. Richo is able to balance Michael Kroger.

    The result isn’t a surprise but the side is. I understand that Queensland is very diverse and with the most marginal seats of any states. We do need to remember that the LNP have been under preforming on the Gold Coast and in Brisbane.

    Clearly this election was based on state issues but looking at the result, the LNP only polled about 50% of the primary, unsure what to make of the KAP, they may become a larger influence over time.

    It is clear that the Liberals of SEQ are difference from the Nats but I think they will co-exist and hold together

    Federally – Considering the issues were overwhelmingly state based. It would be easy to see no federal implications but the KAP vote is potentially the most important aspect federally for those voters are not going to go to the ALP and would be very much against the carbon and mining tax and will have to direct preferences.

    I think the ALP do have a serious problem but it is much the same as the problem the Liberals faced at times and the best thing the ALP can do is remain focus on its agenda and deliver.

    I think there is a potential danger for the Liberal Party for their supporters are sounding much like the ALP did only a decade ago and as we know the ALP fell short.

    Whilst I do think the ALP have a huge up hill battle to hold government, the next election is still two budgets away and just as the mining boom is having next to no real benefit to the voters of south eastern Australian the mining tax will have next to no impact on the south east and also the carbon tax whilst a dead handed tax, in itself wont lead to a change of government for electricity prices are controlled by the states and they are now mostly Liberal governments.

    At this stage the Liberals are looking good to win the next federal poll but in the Melbourne Cup the horse that is first past the post on the first lap rarely if never first past the post the second time around.

    The Liberal Party has a problem, Its frontbench needs to be reshuffled and even the business community is now calling for this.

  28. Puff, the Magic Dragon,

    Blimey! Fancy trying to engage in a sensible discourse with Frankenstein.

    He has actually done you a favour by cutting you off from his rapidly diminishing circle of influence in the realm of political discourse.

    He hated it that others, more worthy than he, could be considered to be far more popular candidates as village idiot!

    Frankenfurter is real good at using people to act on his behalf against those who he feels are worthy of his scorn but he doesn’t have the guts to do so himself.

    Isn’t that right Frank. You used me to try and get back at wrongs that you reckoned were directed towards you by our host, William, (making the bullets that I should fire on your behalf) but you never had the guts to do it yourself, did you?

    Puff, don’t feel bad about being used by a gutless dingo!

  29. [Do you know what happens if the ALP does not reach 10 seats and therefore does not get party status in Qld]

    It would be extremely advisable to Newman to extend the same courtesy to the ALP as Beattie did for the Libs when they were in a similar predicament.

    Fortunately, Newman isn’t an extremist thug, so I suspect he will, lest the need arise.

  30. BB
    So are rich parents to get fawking nannies paid for by taxpayers money, while parents of disabled children (and adults living at home) get sfa respite, in-home services and equipment, even though most of these parents live on lower incomes because the time and energy demands to look after these children means much lower workforce participation? Some babies are really worth less in the Abbott world-view.

    Excuse me while I fantasise about this fawking currant standing in his vest in front of one of those big trucks and the hand-brake…okay time to wake up.

    Abbott should at least taken out behind the bicycle sheds by the prefects and given a good seeing to.

  31. Why don’t those who want to have a go at Frank set up their own blog from which to do so. Perhaps they could use it to conduct running commentary on what’s being discussed at Frank’s blog in an environment where they are free to say what they like about it, free from the tyrannical clutches of its moderator. Maybe they could get a whole group moderation thing going, where all (say) five moderators must unanimously concur before anyone gets banned.

    Anyway, just as a suggestion. Because I don’t care to have this blog used for that purpose.

  32. Whilst I see your point Puffy but I know several not so wealthy people who have hired nannies.

    Its been a while but my memory is that a carer has up to a months respite care available a year, it might be five weeks. It is enough, well no but then again its a brake.

  33. Carey Moore, John Pyke, on the previous page provided the following

    [Someone asked about the threshold for being officially recognised as a party. If they have 10% of first prefs state-wide, only 3 members. Otherwise 9. See POQ Act 2001, s 112 , at http://corrigan.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/qld/consol_act/poqa2001241/s112.html Now looks like ALP has 8 (Tug-o-war team?) so they’ll officially be a Parliamentary party only on the 10% rule. Katterites won’t.]

  34. Psephos,

    I don’t know if you got my e-mail at x-mas or not, but I hope you stick around. The good fellas need you here. Times are tough. We need tough people to see it through!

  35. 731

    One Nation did not have a Brisbane LNP Premier in their first term as an elected party. Katter and his party also have more political experience than One Nation and are, I read/heard tonight, better organised. The Katter Party will do better next election than this election.

  36. Carey I think us normal folk often mistakenly believe politicians hold the opposite side in the same level of contempt often displayed in the wider community. Largely politicians give each other respect regardless of the political game.

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