Breakdown broken down

Very much obviously remains to be said about the Queensland state election result, and rest assured that it soon will be. In the meantime, here’s a table which breaks down the damage region by region.

Northern Brisbane 31.7% 51.9% 7.5% 6.9% 0 11 0 0
-16.1% 13.8% -1.0% -10 +10 0 0
Southern Brisbane 33.8% 49.4% 7.7% 5.0% 2 14 0 0
-18.5% 13.7% -0.6% -12 +12 0 0
Inner Brisbane 30.7% 52.5% 13.6% 2.6% 2 8 0 0
-9.5% 12.8% -1.7% -5 +5 0 0
Ipswich 33.6% 38.5% 5.4% 14.1% 1 2 0 0
-24.8% 8.2% -1.9% -2 +2 0 0
Gold Coast 23.4% 58.3% 6.6% 7.3% 0 10 0 0
-17.8% 12.7% -0.2% -4 +4 0 0
Sunshine Coast 16.1% 57.9% 11.3% 6.6% 0 5 1 0
-12.8% 8.6% 1.2% 0 0 0 0
Urban Hinterland 19.1% 51.0% 7.4% 18.7% 0 6 0 0
-14.0% 5.6% -0.4% -1 +2 -1 0
Central Coastal 25.3% 41.3% 4.2% 16.9% 2 8 1 0
-17.4% 2.4% -1.4% -2 +3 -1 0
Northern Coastal 26.4% 40.9% 5.1% 25.4% 1 7 0 0
-17.8% -1.1% -2.7% -5 +5 0 0
Interior 15.7% 50.7% 3.3% 26.9% 0 5 0 2
-10.8% -1.2% -0.2% -1 -1 0 +2
Top End 33.3% 37.7% 5.1% 21.8% 0 1 0 0
-13.5% -4.3% -1.2% -1 +1 0 0
TOTAL 26.8% 49.5% 7.4% 11.6% 8 77 2 2
-15.9% 8.4% -0.6% -43 +43 -2 +2

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

895 comments on “Breakdown broken down”

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  1. Sky News exit polls show what voters were most concerned about:

    ALP supporters

    – cost of living 61%
    – delivery of state services 58%
    – carbon tax 40%
    – mining tax 34%
    – Newman’s business dealings 32%

    LNP supporters

    – cost of living 71%
    – delivery of state services 67%
    – carbon tax 51%
    – mining tax 38%
    – Newman’s business dealings 6%

    It looks like both the ALP and the Greens are heavily punish in the polls, those who thinks there are no federal implications and thinks Australians can differentiate between state and federal issues should look at the above

    While the ALP did poorly, the Greens were just as bad. NOt only did the Green not picked up any of the 16% of people who left the ALP, l they also lost 15% of the people who used to vote for them.

  2. Hey there Bilbo
    Your reasons for not allowing picture/vid posts has just be reinforced – AFV is down: bandwidth exceeded. It’s a shame pics and stuff take up so much – it’s a nice feature to have. If only we had a superfast fibre network . . . more bandwidth, less bucks. Oh, but wait!!!

  3. [Dave Hughes on Twitter: “It’s lucky for Anna Bligh that she copes well with disasters.”]

    Funny line but unfairly cruel this close to the election. The fact is Queensland was lucky that she coped well with disasters. I guess that will now be forgotten by the ungrateful masses.

  4. I think federally in Queensland it will be ALP 1 or 0, ie will Rudd hold his seat. Had the bloody minded caucus changed to Rudd, I expect that you would have seen the ALP figure in Queensland with a 1 or 2 in front of its 7 or 8

  5. Looks like Queenslanders have taken the bait and decided to dispense with opposition. And going by what that puffed-up windbag, Brandis, is saying, the same thing will happen federally. One would be a fool to think this is unlikely, even this far out. But Queenslanders have always been a bit special, although not in the way they would like to think. I was always one who believed that media influence was overblown, particularly in 2007. But what has happened since has me totally convinced of the opposite. When you get a concerted, co-ordinated 3 x 365 campaign – and that is exactly what it has become – and couple it with a largely (but not completely) greedy, stupid and generally gullible public, results like this will become more common. Add in pigs like Rinehart, Palmer (national treasure? wtf?), Harvey and their unlimited financial support, we have the beginnings of a one party system.

    Yes, I know that recently the ALP held power everywhere. But that was due to the general incompetence of the coalition and not because of any assistance they (ALP) may have had from the media. I have seen a year of inaction, backflips, broken promises and incompetence from the O’Farrell government (power, tolls, sexual pecadillos of a minister) but you wouldn’t know it from our media. I gather similar things are happening in Victoria and WA, as always, is in a league of their own. I don’t know much about Barnett but from what I saw of Uhlmann cuddling up to him earlier this week, he gets the same air-brush treatment.

    I said yesterday that the conservatives -that being the media and their parliamentary arms – will not settle for 90%. They want 100%. Let’s see if Newman does allow the ALP party status etc. That will give us an idea of how far conservative greed will exend. It will also tell us a lot about Australians and their ability to be lied to on a daily basis.

  6. Tom, I bought the ‘new look’ Sunday Herald this morning . It was wall to wall pro liberal, with a sickening shot of crusaderabbit on the cover. This bias is overwhelming the country

  7. Here is a list of the issues that did the damage, not in any particular order:

    Its time factor
    Privatisation – explains Ipswich and the North`specifically rail
    Privatisation – more generally – sense that Bligh lied
    Removal of petrol subsidy – huge in country area, other wise just a general level of cost of living issues
    Electricity prices – Beattie said when he privatised them that prices would fall. They did not
    Public transport fare increases
    Cost of living generally
    Two speed economy – Brisbane and tourist sector in a mess and not everyone is in the mining sector.
    The negative campaigning in the last two weeks (explains about 4 % of the loss)- polling showed this especially in Ashgrove. – especially targeting the wife. Went down like a lead balloon
    The Rudd factor – not sure what effect but would not have helped
    Too many women – or more specifically Men liked Newman. Less clear about women
    Government at the end of life seen as incompetent- Health pay scandal etc.

    Now Labor needs to worry because it was the battlers that really shifted. The formerly rusted on Labor types. Cost of living the real issue.

  8. [For Tories it’s a genetic affliction. Last week the pomgolian tories in their budget made some changes to VAT on food. Whilst prols now pay a 20% VAT on their pies and pasties the chaps’ Beluga has 0% VAT.]

    Well, if you’re a Queenslander, got ready for rain. Get those rin coats and ‘brella’s out because it seems to me that you’re going get some serious trickle-down.

    Those golden drops from on high will be Clive taking a good leak on you.

  9. Whatever you think of the Queensland result Anna Bligh is one class act. The speech she delivered in the most terrible of circumstances was an absolute credit to her. Grace under pressure writ large.

  10. One other highly relevant thing is that in Brisbane and SEQ the voters supported what they see as Liberals. Newman is a LIBERAL leader, rather than seen a NATIONAL party. Much more acceptable in that the Nats of Joh’s time.

    The seats such as Ashgrove, Mt Cootha, are essentially LIBERAL heartland and would have been safe Liberal territory in any other state, except they were not going to support a National Party led party. These areas have always voted solidly liberal federally.

  11. I regret to say that that wouldn’t even have registered on the Bogans ho turfed her MTBW. In fact they’d be disappointed not to have seen tears.

    Infliction of maximum pain on Labor seems to have been the objective and although thay’ve clearly now set themselves up for more than a few teary experiences in the next 6-12 months as a conflicted Tory Government goes about implementing it’s conflicted and contradictory Tory policies, what they really wanted to see was Anna Bligh break down into a sobbing, lubbering mess.

    They didn’t get that.


    She’s a Bligh. Her family have seen and dealt with mutinies before.

  12. [Well what does Labor do now?]

    Federally? Just keep doing what it has been doing for the last month.

    The budget in May will be a good point to relaunch the medium to long term vision for the country. Two years on from the first mention of a mining tax and it will have become law. The revenue can now be accounted for. The carbon price in July with household and business compensation in place should see an improvement in the polls over the remainder of the year putting more heat under Abbott’s leadership. I just hope he remains leader through the year and into next as he is a dead set plus for Labor’s chances.

  13. daretotread

    [Cost of living the real issue.]

    I posted on here the other day about a conversation I had with one of my neighbours. A life long ALP voter with three kids who is really disillusioned with the ALP saying that they feel the Party has forgotten them. Said they could barely make ends meet while all Labor talks about is a Price on Carbon and gay marriage.

    I agree with you on the “too many women” issue as well in the context you outlined. I would add and too many young careerists whom voters would see as wet behind the ears.

  14. [Federally? Just keep doing what it has been doing for the last month. ]

    You have got to be kidding or Tony Abbott.

  15. smithe

    [She’s a Bligh. Her family have seen and dealt with mutinies before.]

    Great comment! Isn’t Turnbull connected to that family as well?

  16. MTBW, As for your formerly Labor-voting neighbour being miffed at the amount of attention he and his were receiving from the Government, I hope he’s happy now.

    He can rest assured that the Tories haven’t forgotten him.

    No siree. Within the next few months he’s gonna start to feel the full weight of their Economic Rationalist mind-set as they start the traditional slash and burn of Government services.

    He’ll be squealing like a stuck pig then.

  17. mtbw,

    Don’t know how you combat/campaign against the cost of living issue. I think the reality is that it is a cost of lifestyle issue with the individual to blame not the govt.

  18. [Great comment! Isn’t Turnbull connected to that family as well?]

    Dunno MTBW.

    Certainly he hasn’t acted like one.

    First, the crew didn’t put him over the side into a long boat before bidding him adieu in the middle of the great watery expanse, they merely demoted him to cabin boy and gave him the shittiest job they could find: Trying to argue against the NBN, something he seems to passionatelly agree with.

    Further, he seems to have meekly accepted the reduction in rank. Save for a few Costello-like veiled comments on this or that policy issue, he hasn’t struck out for Java (lacking, I suppose) the navigational skills to get there. He generally presents himself as a grateful cabin-boy, with nary an unkind word about the mutineers who have dumped and belittled him.

    In fact, he’s become something of an Abbott lickspittle.

    Some Bligh.

  19. [Well what does Labor do now?]

    Easy, just keep passing as much good legislation as they can. Even if they lose the next election it will create a headache for Abbott or whoever trying to rescind it.

  20. [Don’t know how you combat/campaign against the cost of living issue.]

    Howard pumped taxpayer funds into peoples pockets in breathtakingly outrageous quantities. I would hate to see Labor do the same thing just for the sake of winning elections.

  21. smithe

    I never said he was a “formerly” Labor voter and we are in NSW.

    If we do not take this type of Labor voter at their word we are flirting with danger.

    We live in a Federal seat with a 1.5% margin and his disgruntled comments are cause for concern. We dismiss them at our peril.


    They are an ordinary family with three kids one now at work and two in Catholic Schools. The man works for State Rail. They are feeling the pressure and I both like and respect them they are good people.

    Telling people what they should think just doesn’t work. Listening to them without judging them may.

  22. confessions,

    I agree. Economically it is both unwise and unsustainable. Think the peeps out there need educating about financial accountability and responsibility and who is responsible for what.

  23. [ joe2
    Posted Sunday, March 25, 2012 at 10:04 am | Permalink
    The next big scandal just happened for Cameron….

    Wow, The Tories don’t do things by half masures, do they?

    So, 250K gets you direct access to the PM and Treasurer. And over a nice personal dinner with them at N 10 where you can fully air your grievances and concerns with an assurance that the policy committe will have a look into things for you as well.

    Who says money doesn’t talk?

    With labor it was cash for peerages. With the Tories, it’s cash for influenceing Goverment policy itself.

    Britain, it seems, is turning into Nigeria.

  24. Hi MTBW re29

    Telling people what they should think just doesn’t work. Listening to them without judging them may.

    I think you’re right on the money here -the additional point for me tho’ is how to use what they say, and where necessary persuade them otherwise eg on refugees for instance.


  25. I have several times put forward the proposition that Australian electorates are more volatile than they used to be. The psephologists have resisted this proposition. Anyway, I thought I might float my little pet boat again.

    On a related matter, Mr Atkins on Insiders noted that twice Labor in Queensland has had similar drubbings, the last being in 1974. He also noted that in both cases it took Labor 15 years to rebuild to a compeititive opposition.

  26. mtbw,

    Next budget time make a point of reading as many comments as you can on the changes. What becomes abundantly clear is that people expect handouts to survive. The fact is people believe the govt OWES them. They believe they are entitled to private schools, foxtel, holidays twice a year and to upgrade their electronic gadgets at least once a year.

    The govt owes them enough to survive and to assist in getting people back on their feet when jobless. Everything thing else is a delusion many Australians are living under. They believe the govt owes them their chosen lifestyle.

  27. [Malcolm Bligh Turnbull (born 24 October 1954) is an Australian politician.]

    Well, there we have it.

    I still reckon he’s not much of a Bligh.

  28. S
    The Mr Bligh headed for Timor which was then probably the first European (Portuguese) possession he could possibly hope to bump into.

  29. Comment from the female side: I did not like the Alp’s campaign! (I did vote Labor and have done so always). They should have been talking up the good things they’ve done, ditch the too negative comments (ie Newmann’s history – no proof) and never admit defeat! As for women who can’t see through show-pony Newman (and Abbott)! I don’t pretend to be a political guru, but couldn’t find all of Newman’s promises, and most of them are worded VERY carefully anyway. I hope Federal Labor learns something from all of this.

  30. Mr Ludwig was reported on Insiders as having said that Queenslanders (or Queensland men?… not sure) don’t like women politicians.

  31. PW
    There was a view on Insiders (Ms Tingle) that Queenslanders were sick of filthy politics. Mr Beattie did a back-of-the-envelope analysis of the campaign. I forget the exact figures but he noted that Labor was behind 16% at the start of the campaign, got it down to something like behind 10% during the campaign, went 17% behind when Ms Bligh announced she had nothing substantial on Mr Campbell and then drifted to 15% behind on election day.
    Both of the above reflect your feelings quite well.

  32. [Next budget time make a point of reading as many comments as you can on the changes. What becomes abundantly clear is that people expect handouts to survive. The fact is people believe the govt OWES them. They believe they are entitled to private schools, foxtel, holidays twice a year and to upgrade their electronic gadgets at least once a year.

    The govt owes them enough to survive and to assist in getting people back on their feet when jobless. Everything thing else is a delusion many Australians are living under. They believe the govt owes them their chosen lifestyle.]

    Absolutely correct SK.

    I blame Howard. After years of his non-stop middle-class pork a sense of entitlement to constant provision of ‘the other white meat’ by the Government has set-in. It’s one of his worst and most damaging legacies, in my view.

    The peeps have come to rely-on (and indeed, demand) their Governments putting some pork on their fork.

    It will be a hard habit to break, but break it we must if this country is to survive.

  33. SK:

    Another legacy of the Howard era is the sense of entitlement people have. They expect governments to fund their lifestyle choices, whether it be sending children to private school, or giving them an annual handout for private health insurance, or cash grants to purchase a new home, or govt subsidy for petrol. Abbott’s PPL scheme is derived from this sense of entitlement.

    At some point this has to be addressed.

  34. [Conservative Party co-treasurer Peter Cruddas offered access to the prime minister and chancellor for £250,000, the Sunday Times has alleged.

    It has footage of him apparently making the offer to undercover reporters.]

    That’s about the same as Fergie offering access to the Royals, and the price is the same.

  35. One aspect of the handout mentality bothers me. When the GFC struck and the govt handed out stimulus cheques, people whinged that it was irresponsible etc.

  36. Patricia W

    Good thoughts.
    The messages I got from Insiders analysis were
    * stop mentioning Abbott all the time. It is seen by many voters as “personal attacks” and comes back to bite Labor (cf Newman).
    * keep emphasising the good things and the good goals you have (I don’t believe they’re doing that enough) and yes, some better promotion/advertising wouldn’t go astray.
    * what’s your vision for Australia?

  37. PS to @47
    I think #fair go isn’t a bad slogan. Forget “working Australians” – as economy bites, this will lead to resentment, not support.

  38. For as much as it is worth, the result for Labor is bad in Qld, but we have to remember that percentage swings make the seat change look worse.

    I am not for one moment trying to lessen the impact, as it goes both ways when Labor wins.

    The conservatives got just below 50% of the vote but will win – haven’t worked it out exactly, but about 80% of the seats. This is the nature of our voting system.

    In any event, both Labor and the conservatives have been here more than once.

    Queenslanders have essentially handed all effective power over to the conservatives for for perhaps 6 years. There is no opposition in parliament as far as it goes, so we should see a wonderful future for them – all progress and no issues.

    Of course this is rubbish and we will soon hear about “black holes in the budget” and “It is all Canbeeeera’s fault” – a litany we have heard from north of the border many times.

    One thing Laurie Oakes has mentioned and is something which should concern Labor, is the fact that Labor self-styled voters themselves are parking their vote with the conservatives. The primary vote for Labor, federally, is stuck at just over 30% and Labor cannot win with this low level.

    I have asked where the missing 6-8% can be for some time.

    According to Oakes, it is Labor people who cannot bring themselves to vote Labor as their needs are not being met. It is odd that they should sell out to the conservatives but it is a reality.

    I disagree with Oakes in as much as he also says “voters have long memories”. They are are fickle as cats. More accurately, I think he is right in that Queenslanders wanted a change and had stopped listening to Bligh months ago – floods or no floods.

    On the Federal level, this is the major danger for the PM. Not that she does tough things that some do not like, but that people stop listening. I don’t think this is the case yet.

    Boringly, I head Newman say this morning “We in Queensland must all move forward……………….” gawd, and to think JG got it in the neck for saying this.

    What are the conservative rags in Queensland going to write about now?

    If history tells us anything, just after Gough was beaten in 1977 – the OO had the gall to come out and state that democracy need a “strong opposition” to ensure a “strong democracy” and this, mind you, they had done all they could to destroy the said “democracy”.

    I don’t understand Queensland politics, but I wonder, if a few days from now we will see the CM come out with the “Don’t sulk Labor” line and now be “A good opposition” line, after Labor has effectively been decimated in terms of seats. Can’t do much to oppose with 10 or so seats.

    As I said, for the conservatives, sunny one day, perfect the next. All problems will be resolved in Queensland forthwith.

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