Breakdown broken down

Very much obviously remains to be said about the Queensland state election result, and rest assured that it soon will be. In the meantime, here’s a table which breaks down the damage region by region.

Northern Brisbane 31.7% 51.9% 7.5% 6.9% 0 11 0 0
-16.1% 13.8% -1.0% -10 +10 0 0
Southern Brisbane 33.8% 49.4% 7.7% 5.0% 2 14 0 0
-18.5% 13.7% -0.6% -12 +12 0 0
Inner Brisbane 30.7% 52.5% 13.6% 2.6% 2 8 0 0
-9.5% 12.8% -1.7% -5 +5 0 0
Ipswich 33.6% 38.5% 5.4% 14.1% 1 2 0 0
-24.8% 8.2% -1.9% -2 +2 0 0
Gold Coast 23.4% 58.3% 6.6% 7.3% 0 10 0 0
-17.8% 12.7% -0.2% -4 +4 0 0
Sunshine Coast 16.1% 57.9% 11.3% 6.6% 0 5 1 0
-12.8% 8.6% 1.2% 0 0 0 0
Urban Hinterland 19.1% 51.0% 7.4% 18.7% 0 6 0 0
-14.0% 5.6% -0.4% -1 +2 -1 0
Central Coastal 25.3% 41.3% 4.2% 16.9% 2 8 1 0
-17.4% 2.4% -1.4% -2 +3 -1 0
Northern Coastal 26.4% 40.9% 5.1% 25.4% 1 7 0 0
-17.8% -1.1% -2.7% -5 +5 0 0
Interior 15.7% 50.7% 3.3% 26.9% 0 5 0 2
-10.8% -1.2% -0.2% -1 -1 0 +2
Top End 33.3% 37.7% 5.1% 21.8% 0 1 0 0
-13.5% -4.3% -1.2% -1 +1 0 0
TOTAL 26.8% 49.5% 7.4% 11.6% 8 77 2 2
-15.9% 8.4% -0.6% -43 +43 -2 +2

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

895 comments on “Breakdown broken down”

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  1. Interesting comment from Kohler as it pertains to Federal Labor’s relection prospects –

    First, here’s why the near unanimous opposition to Finkelstein’s Media recommendations will be ignored and a new regulator appointed:

    because the government knows it’s probably going to lose the next election anyway and is therefore impervious to threats from the media.

    On this issue and probably many others, it has been liberated by the near-certainty of defeat and plans to get as much done as possible over the next 18 months.

    I don’t accept defeat this far out from the Federal election, but getting Labor’s policies enacted into Law is still the main aim.

    Have always said the obvious, that if electors want abbott as PM thats what will happen.
    But its not settled yet. Not by a long way.

  2. Qld biggest factor for voting out Labor was “it time” factor. Sure the tactics on going negative worked against them (can’t remeber his name but the campaign advisor was useless), but to the majority it was time for a change. Also she lost the support of the
    Qld Nurses Union and the Qld Rail Union. You can’t even try to win an election without your base supporting you.

    Fed Labor have to critically look at their weakest points and work them into positives. Communication is one, up here she is only mentioned by MSM is a negative way. If she can string together positives for Qld, then itcan be turned around.

    On a positive note, as Will-i-am notes, Saturdays elections saw a couple a people who should have been kicked to the curb for their outragous comments, get elected. Neuman will have to babysit these as well as handle the winge fest that is Qld Health.

  3. Ha, how soon some forget. This is not a bad result for Federal Labor. Quite the opposite in fact. The next Federal Election is at least 18 months away. All the same rubbish was sprouted about the HUGE Labor victories leading up to the 2001 Federal election. The circumstance are so similar it’s scary.

    Howard was going into the 2001 widely reviled (Stone’s Mean and Tricky memo), a long way behind in the polls, off the back of a near loss at the last Federal Election (hanging on with only 49%) of the vote, and facing a massive resurgence of Labor at the state level.

    Carr in NSW had started the trend back to Labor with minority government just before Howard came to power (similar to Barnett in WA in the early days of the Rudd Government), before every single state and territory fell like dominoes to Labor leading up to 2001.

    Rann and then Beattie followed Carr with a minority wins in 97 and 98, and Bacon in Tasmania secured a majority win in 98. Carr won again in 99 to secure a majority in the LA, and Bracks stunned Kennett to form a minority government.

    Howard’s 2001 Federal chances were being written of as first Gallop rolled Court in WA in February and then a week later Beattie destroyed the NatLibs (49% primary to 28% primary – almost exactly Saturday’s result reversed), and then just three months before the Federal Election Clare Martin did the unthinkable and won the NT assembly.

    Reams were being written about the death of the Liberals and their structural problems and how they were in danger of collapsing, blah, blah, blah. The huge wins to Labor in all those states and territories after 2001 too would lead the uncritical reader to assume there was truth to the BS as well. Except of course for the fact Howard secured a swing to him in the 2001 election, picked up a couple of seats and governed for a further 6 years.

    There are of course other parallels. The ‘weak leader’ and ‘stopped listening’ memes and the hatred of ‘Juliar’ were just as strong back then amongst the ‘Howard Haters’ (of which I to this day remain proud to be a member). Didn’t win any elections though did it? Both opposition leaders were recycled ministers of the former government looking to turn back the clock a few years and roll back the biggest and hardest fought part of the terms legislative agenda, but had nothing to offer for the future.

    So supporters of the government, fear not. We’ve been here before (although on the other side of the fence). Like Howard I have no doubt that Gillard will use the power of incumbency to redefine the argument when the moment is ripe. I noted someone in the Herald was musing about Gillard using Howard’s 2004 reconfiguration on ‘trust’ – an idea I have also had previously and one which used well will have devastating results on someone like Abbott.

    We’re only just coming up to half time oranges. The Government has been kicking into a gale in the first half, but has put some good points on the board. This six week break before the budget kicks of the second half of the term will be used to regroup, look at what’s working in attack and defence, get set for a strong finish. Labor will have the breeze at their backs (even if it’s not as strong). So long as they don’t worry about being a few points behind and play to their strengths they’ll finish the stronger and win on the bell.

  4. As bad as the result was for the ALP in Queensland i offer this small consolation, at least the did not throw out the leader unlike jwh. It will also be interesting to watch how Cando manages such a huge majority when all the job seekers and carpet baggers come to redeem their vouchers, i am reminded about the ” Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely”. To gauge some idea what the good folk of queensland may have to look forward to in the future, i suggest pollbludgers look at the ABC site and click on the clive palmer celebrates video. If that does not scare you nothing will. Also compare Fatty O’Barrel’s latest move to save money, reduce workers compensation payments. The born to rule mentality of these people know no bounds.

  5. Oh and the LNP victory in Qld is likely to be much better for Labor than the O’Farrell win in NSW.

    Barry has to deal with minor parties in the LC. He can’t go silly (and is probably sensible enough not too even if he had the chance).

    Newman however has no, zip, zero, zilch, barriers to anything his tory heart can dream of. With a massive backbench drunk on power and no accountability the potential for massive over-reach is just far too great to bet against. I reckon Abbott will be cursing the name Newman come Oct 2013. Labor will pick up seats in Queensland.

  6. ratsak

    [Newman however has no, zip, zero, zilch, barriers to anything his tory heart can dream of. With a massive backbench drunk on power and no accountability the potential for massive over-reach is just far too great to bet against. I reckon Abbott will be cursing the name Newman come Oct 2013. Labor will pick up seats in Queensland.
    From your lips to dog’s ears! I really do hope so!!]

  7. Really, the most encouraging thing for Federal labor is the fact that the msm is writing them off.

    Given the accuracy of msm predictions over the past couple of years, this should mean we’re a shoe in!!

  8. [Here’s a heads-up for how bad it all was in the last few days. The LNP sent some so-called “Rolls Royce” mail to nine and a half seats with just two sentences.

    “Just a short note to thank you for your patience during this campaigning,” said the letter.

    “I believe that with your support on Saturday we can change Queensland for the better.”

    That’s all. Genius. The LNP won every seat]

    Morning Bludgers – How clever that was of the LNP. Abbott will probably do the same.

    I hope George Wright is taking great notice and decides to start making small Youtube ads with clever and eye catching graphs and stats instead of the Abbott rant.

    Hawkers tactics in elections have seen their use by date. As Andrew Catsaras said yesterday on Insiders, the voters are looking for hope and vision – not slush. JG and Labor have many good stories to tell if they can just stop talking about Abbott.

    And PM – could you please stop praising John Howard. It just reinforces people’s views that everything he did was terrific and they long for those relaxed and comfortable days (they didn’t really exist but the legend has been built – aided and abetted by the constant mention of ‘good’ Howard)

  9. zoomster

    The polling for Qld suggested 11 or 12 seats. Atkins of the Courier Mail predicted 8 seats. I did not believe it would be so bad. They were right.

  10. Sorry, victoria: I am saying the msm – not the polls – have been consistently wrong in their predictions.

    It was very tongue in cheek.

  11. zoomster

    I know what you are saying.
    My point is that whilst I believed that the msm and others are generally wrong about everything, it does not mean that fed Labor is going to succeed. Therefore, I am now forming the view that no matter how well the government is governing and in setting up the reforms, and getting the message out. I cant see the electorate giving them support for another term.

  12. Kristina Kennealy (former NSW Labor Premier) over at the ABC

    says that Bligh’s loss was due in part to
    1. Kevin Rudd challenging for leadership at the start of the QLD election campaign
    2. Anna Bligh attacking Campbell Newman personally
    3. failure to explain sales of state assets
    4. loss of nurse and rail worker voter base
    5. it’s time factor

  13. zoomster
    [ but we do tend to let nostalgia cloud the memories of how disliked he was.]
    Perhaps they should have spoken more about him for this reason. The flip side of soft focus nostalgia is remembering him as been far worse than he actually was. A couple of years back Mega George put up a bunch of economic trends and indicators and asked a “guess who ?” as to which incoming PM was greeted with such nice numbers. Of course everyone thought K Rudd but it was in fact JWH and the position left to him by Keating. I certainly did not realise what a good outlook there was. Perhaps if it got out there ealier JWH + PC’s claims of economic genius would have been knocked on the head a littler earlier.

  14. For a moment I was considering whether it would be at all conceivable, in theory anyway, and if some advantages were foreseen by the parties involved, that Qld Labor might form a coalition opposition with the 2 Indies and the 2 Katters – possibly for one term just to help ALP rebuild. But then I could see problems. One would be that it might weaken the Labor brand.

  15. victoria,

    I understand what you are saying. However, I still believe that time is on the side of labor. It will be hard but it can be done.

    Regarding the approach labor takes from here on in I think it will be interesting to sit back and watch the next few weeks.

    I think the change will be subtle but there will be more, ” we are the government this is what we are doing ” rather than the constant confrontation /negative Abbott style approach.

    The ammo is there for labor just depends how they fire the guns.

    It can be done.

  16. any one else noticed that while is Tony is cycling around south east Australia that the Liberal Party has issued some policies

    1. help with nannys
    2. restrictions on foreign ownership of farmland
    3. MRRT will not affect big miners who won’t pay that much tax

    Is this the start of their policy launch, release, listen to feedback, refine

  17. Hawker has alot to answer for. His tactics were only go dirty negative where as LNP was negative with positive. Nueman had this ads which were positive and showed up his ‘lets get down to fixing problems’ attitude. Compared with dirty negative from Anna only reinforced in ppls minds they were not going to vote Labor this election.

    When it all comes down to it Anna Bligh shouldn’t have been voted in when Beattie handed over to her. Qld Labor probably didn’t expect her to win, but the LOTO Springborg was that on the nose with voters she was elected again. Govts DO have a used by date and Qld Labor was three to fours over it.

  18. [And PM – could you please stop praising John Howard. It just reinforces people’s views that everything he did was terrific and they long for those relaxed and comfortable days (they didn’t really exist but the legend has been built – aided and abetted by the constant mention of ‘good’ Howard)]
    This is what I cringe at when I hear Gillard say it in QT.

  19. The same old clowns are in the paper writing off federal Labor 18 months out from an election due to the Qld election. No thought at all given to any other possibilities for example that Newman could turn out to be a dud. Afterall if Baillieu can do it in just over 12 months …..

  20. Heard a couple of ads on 3AW this morning for the NBN. Good to see that the government has started its advertising campaign.

  21. Ratsak 853

    Great post and a salient reminder to one or two here who seem to be saying – “do something, anything. I don’t know what, but bloody do something”. The government IS doing something. They have a strategy and the best plan right now is for them to stick to it and give it a chance to work.

    I had to laugh at Laurie Oakes this morning. He said JG would be terrified at the prospect of what Queenslanders are likely to do to her. FFS when will these light weights finally realise that our PM is one tough cookie. She has shown many times over the last year and a half that NOTHING scares her. She cops all their shit and she laughs in their faces. Terrified? I don’t think so.

  22. The thing about Bruce Hawker that while only a small thing goes someway to explain why he should not run campaigns in future.

    Bruce was asked was their tracking carried out in Greenslopes.

    A seat with a senior Minister and a swing seat that has gone to the Liberals before yet his response was

    No, we didn’t track that seat.

  23. Labor should use some of its federal backbenchers as state shadow ministers.

    Shayne Neumann is wasted on the backbench, so why not make him a state shadow? Same for Yvette D’Ath, and Kirsten Livermore.

    The QLD Labor Senators should be considered too.

  24. No 757

    Hilarious that you think Newman received little scrutiny. He was the subject of numerous personal attacks by the Labor Party which all turned out to be completely unsubstantiated, leaving Bligh with a few dozen eggs on her face.

  25. Usual Poll Bludger circle jerkers blaming the media. I mean, COME ON. A party doesn’t lose over 40 seats by being faultless.

  26. No 854

    Howard’s seat was marginal, Bligh’s was very safe. Also, Maxine McKew turned out to be useless and got thrown out in 2010.

  27. No 890

    No, it was made marginal by the Electoral Commission redistributions which significantly changed the complexion of his electorate over time.

  28. [No, it was made marginal by the Electoral Commission redistributions which significantly changed the complexion of his electorate over time.]
    Wrong! It was caused by voters rejecting big government conservatism that saw the Howard / Costello years increase tax as a proportion of GDP on average above that of the Hawke, Keating, Fraser and Whitlam governments.

    That’s right, Howard and Costello were bigger taxers than Whitlam they simply couldn’t keep their hands out of the pockets of voters, which voters grew very tired of.

    That’s why Howard lost his seat.

  29. To talk of more pleasant things… a new approach to desalinisation could be very promising.
    [Desalination plants have been controversial, mostly because of their high energy demand and the waste water they produce. But a new desalination technology uses almost no electricity and has the potential to save huge amounts of water.

    Our team at Victoria University has completed a three-month power station trial in Newport, in Melbourne’s western suburbs. Using our own performance optimised design, we proved desalination of waste water – which usually relies on electricity – could instead be powered by an industry’s own waste heat.

    The membrane distillation technology uses waste heat to evaporate waste water through a fine membrane. The evaporated water condenses on the other side of the membrane as treated water – at above tap water standard – for re-use around the plant.

    The trial – conducted at Ecogen Energy’s intermittent operating gas fired Newport Power Station – showed the system used 50% less electricity to desalinate water than traditional techniques. An updated design was then shown to use 95% less electricity.]

  30. Re Q’Land vote
    What is interesting to anybody reading the figures is how well Katter did in the north and hinterland regions…where the fall in the ALP vote is more due to a swing to Katter than to the LNP
    In some ways the swing to LNP was smaller than one was lead to believe by the media…except in Brisbane where the Libs did much better.

    In some ways this is a replay of the rise of Pauline Hanson’s One Nation…though Katter isn’t as”neo-fascist” as was One Nation
    It seems that a substantial Labor vote has gone directly to Katter…and could return if Newman turns Tory

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