Breakdown broken down

Very much obviously remains to be said about the Queensland state election result, and rest assured that it soon will be. In the meantime, here’s a table which breaks down the damage region by region.

VOTES SEATS
ALP LNP GRN KAP ALP LNP IND KAP
Northern Brisbane 31.7% 51.9% 7.5% 6.9% 0 11 0 0
-16.1% 13.8% -1.0% -10 +10 0 0
Southern Brisbane 33.8% 49.4% 7.7% 5.0% 2 14 0 0
-18.5% 13.7% -0.6% -12 +12 0 0
Inner Brisbane 30.7% 52.5% 13.6% 2.6% 2 8 0 0
-9.5% 12.8% -1.7% -5 +5 0 0
Ipswich 33.6% 38.5% 5.4% 14.1% 1 2 0 0
-24.8% 8.2% -1.9% -2 +2 0 0
Gold Coast 23.4% 58.3% 6.6% 7.3% 0 10 0 0
-17.8% 12.7% -0.2% -4 +4 0 0
Sunshine Coast 16.1% 57.9% 11.3% 6.6% 0 5 1 0
-12.8% 8.6% 1.2% 0 0 0 0
Urban Hinterland 19.1% 51.0% 7.4% 18.7% 0 6 0 0
-14.0% 5.6% -0.4% -1 +2 -1 0
Central Coastal 25.3% 41.3% 4.2% 16.9% 2 8 1 0
-17.4% 2.4% -1.4% -2 +3 -1 0
Northern Coastal 26.4% 40.9% 5.1% 25.4% 1 7 0 0
-17.8% -1.1% -2.7% -5 +5 0 0
Interior 15.7% 50.7% 3.3% 26.9% 0 5 0 2
-10.8% -1.2% -0.2% -1 -1 0 +2
Top End 33.3% 37.7% 5.1% 21.8% 0 1 0 0
-13.5% -4.3% -1.2% -1 +1 0 0
TOTAL 26.8% 49.5% 7.4% 11.6% 8 77 2 2
-15.9% 8.4% -0.6% -43 +43 -2 +2

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

895 comments on “Breakdown broken down”

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  1. [And – more grimly – it can be very difficult for a government behind in the polls to turn things around, no matter how far out from an election it is.]

    No doubt.

    I say it’s time for Labor to ditch Rudd’s high-minded proposal to avoid Howard Era Government advertising splurges and go for it.

    Howie spent what? $250 million or so over time spruiking the benefits of Workchoices and the GST to, you know, to “inform” people of their rights once the new laws were promulgated, so why not return the favour in respect of the newly legislated MRRT, NBN and Carbon Pricing Schemes.

    Unchain my Heart, anyone? Times three.

    Thus far, all we’ve had are a few ads referring interested peeps to websites for further information. It’s not good enough. We need something much more robust.

    I say really open the sluices and bombard the Country with a 6-12 month wall-to-wall Government TV campaign extolling the virtues of each of the above policies. It was, as I say, SOP under Howie, so the Tories will have nothing to complain about.

    And if the’re concerned, they can always ask some of their Mining Billionaire cronies to ante-up for a counter campaign. (They might get a few dollars from Clive and Twiggy, but Gina is probably a lost cause – she won’t even support her kids – so she’s likely to baulk at handing-over a quarter Billion to Tony).

  2. [The only way forward is the BISONs, stupid. Else another annihilation.]

    I didn’t say Labor SHOULD concede the economic argument. I was pointing out they already HAVE conceded it to the Libs. The fight over who is the better economic manager is already lost regardless of actual performance.

    If people paid attention to the BISON’s the polls would be very different. The truth of the matter is that people don’t care. Going on ‘gut feel’, most of the electorate thinks the economy is in the toilet and that the Libs are the ‘better economic managers’ we need to get out of it. The meme has stuck and no one is paying any attenton to contrary evidence.

    Finnigans – I didn’t contradict myself at all.

  3. Andrew Fraser has ruled out contesting Bligh’s soon to be former seat of South Brisbane in a by-election, so I guess that means Cameron Dick will be drafted instead?

  4. Andrew Fraser has ruled out contesting Bligh’s soon to be former seat of South Brisbane in a by-election, so I guess that means Cameron Dick will be drafted instead?

  5. morning

    Willam has posted an interesting analysis of the Qld state election this morning.

    News on radio said that fed Labor woukd be reviewing the election outcome in Qld.
    From my perspective, the Qld result has serious implications for fed Labor.

  6. [ Going on ‘gut feel’, most of the electorate thinks the economy is in the toilet and that the Libs are the ‘better economic managers’ we need to get out of it. ]

    Sossman, Labor conceded that because during the Beazley & Latham years, it was “dont mention Hawke/Keating reforms”.

    Only in the later Rudd years, the “we are proud of Hawke/Keating” reforms started. And my BISONs prove that.

    Labor does the reforms and Tory claims the glory. Never Again.

  7. Morning All

    I was wondering if anyone had previously put together, or knows where to find, a list of who was in power federally and at the state level each federal government term. I’m positive there would be a balance between the two at most times for the last 30 years or so but not sure how far back it goes.

    By balance I mean that while Labor was in power federally, most states would be “conservative” and the opposite.

    I’ll stick with the argument that in the end this result will make it easier not harder for the Labor, with the help of the Greens, to win the next election

  8. I feel like screaming. Why dont the Labor Ministers & MPs say: the Chairman of GE said “You need carbon tax and Labor was very brave” Jesuz.

  9. I feel like screaming again. Issue of Trust. Why dont the Labor Ministers & MPs say: the polls show people dont trust Abott. Jesuz.

  10. In other news, there will be no Rudd Challenge at this point.
    [As Labor assesses the fallout from the Queensland election, Kevin Rudd supporters say the devastating election loss will not result in another challenge from the former prime minister.

    NSW Labor MP Ed Husic said this morning that Labor would not be looking to Mr Rudd in the wake of the election, where the Labor party suffered a 16 per cent swing against it and lost over 40 seats.

    ”We’ve made the decision in terms of that,” Mr Husic told Channel Ten this morning.
    Labor strategist Bruce Hawker — who took time out of the Queensland election to advise Mr Rudd in his leadership challenge last month — also said that Mr Rudd had had his chance.

    “(Mr Rudd’s) made it clear, he’s not going to challenge,” Mr Hawker said.

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/no-rudd-challenge-despite-queensland-election-rout-20120326-1vt6l.html#ixzz1qATu7VLo ]

  11. Unfortunately, Abbott and the Shock Jocks have won, with the constant calling Juliar, incompetent, wasteful, toxic ALP., this along with Bligh selling off the Qld Rail. Combined set the meme that the ALP are liars and cannot be trusted. Now we all know that all politicians lie, but with the continued calling of Gillard a liar and the HIS and the BES all being wasteful, and the GBNT of the Carbon Price, it has become impossible for the ALP to sell itself as a very good Government.
    Why? Because of the ALP never ever defending itself on the Carbon Price is not a lie or broken promise. In not defending the lie they agree that it is a lie.Also in not defending the BES and the HIS the same thing has happened.
    By defending I mean every time the MPs have a press conference they must defend these policies.

  12. GD

    Going back to Rudd would be a disaster, but I always believed that a new direction in the latter part of this year or next year is something JG is most likely considering herself.

  13. The Finnigans
    [Sossman, Labor conceded that because during the Beazley & Latham years, it was “dont mention Hawke/Keating reforms”. ]
    Failure to defend Keating’s reforms was one of two unforgivables on Kimbos record. They seemed totally afraid of mentioning it in case the “high interest rate” issue would be mentioned. An issue easily rebutted because it was a global phenomina and rates went even higher in the Tory UK and Repug US. Also due to rattus’s house price boom, even with his “record low” interest rates, mortgages were chewing up a greater % of household income than did Keating’s “high” interest rates.
    Kimbos other unforgivable was rolling over on the “boats” issue.

  14. [An article which has some resonance here

    Life under the Tories: don’t say you weren’t warned]

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/mar/25/tory-nightmare-dont-say-werent-warned

    Indeed it does.

    Although I feel sorry for what the good people of Qld are about to endure from CanDo and his feral billionaire cronies, part of me also takes some sneaking satisfaction in it.

    I know, my bad.

    In some ways perhaps the best cure for a good dose of Tory is a good dose of Tory.

    And by the time CanDo is done, those fools who elected him with such a thumping majority will have recieved such a hearty rogering that their eyes’ll be bulging and they’ll be walking funny for years afterwards.

    A sad fate sure enough, but it will cure them, that’s for sure.

  15. One problem with Federal Labor pursuing a “Queensland Strategy” – Julia Gillard is very unpopular in the Sunshine State.
    This government is terminal, it’s only the deluded Gillardites here on PB who fail to grasp reality.

  16. [BBC understands at least two big donors to the conservative party did have private dinners with David Cameron at downing street flat.]

    The Tory P.M. is spinning down the plug.

  17. poroti

    In about 2001, I suggested to a friend in Head Office that he organise a visit by Keating to this electorate.

    He showed me polling which proved (as much as polling ever does) that a public appearance by Keating in an electorate led to a discernible drop in the vote.

    I loved the man – treasure a letter he wrote me – but we do tend to let nostalgia cloud the memories of how disliked he was.

  18. TLM

    No, we’re just prepared to go down fighting, and hope that that means we don’t go down.

    You seem to think that we should all just meekly accept defeat and hand the keys to The Lodge to Tony tomorrow.

    I’m not so defeatist, and no true Labor person would be.

  19. [This government is terminal, it’s only the deluded Gillardites here on PB who fail to grasp reality.]

    Always such a positive attitude TLM. A real Labor stalwart.

    Shouldn’t you retire back to Menzie House and begin planning for the Tory victory celebration 18 minths or so down the track?

  20. QLD strategy, as outlined by Peter Beattie – Julia and her senior ministers spending a lot more time in Queensland, selling the supposed benefits of government policies.
    Perhaps Swan, Emerson & every other lower house MP in the state forced by the AWU to support Gillard should be concentrating instead on holding their seats?

  21. [ joe2
    Posted Monday, March 26, 2012 at 9:14 am | Permalink
    BBC understands at least two big donors to the conservative party did have private dinners with David Cameron at downing street flat.

    The Tory P.M. is spinning down the plug.]

    Surely the Lib-Dems have got to at least start considering pulling the plug on these corrupt creeps.

    Sheesh. What’s it going to take? Photos of Cameron taking wads of money in brown paper bags?

  22. http://andrewelder.blogspot.com.au/2012/03/work-to-be-done-in-queensland.html

    [25 March 2012
    The work to be done in Queensland

    There are two aspects to the Queensland state election: the LNP has won it and the ALP has lost (and as usual, my predictions sucked). There is a lot of silly commentary about the Federal implications, with Coalition people dressing up their best-case scenario as “pragmatic reality” to the point where journalists accept it as a real story, and it’s time to have a long hard look at that.

    The size of the LNP margin puts such high expectations on them that they will be unable to meet them.

    …………

    Campbell Newman is not Tony Abbott. Newman has made some mistakes but he’s a far better man than Abbott and he appears to actually like and respect women, in general rather than in particular. Newman has a record of achievement in his own right whereas everything Abbott has done has been under the close but paternally indulgent supervision of Fr Emmett Costello, Trevor Kennedy or John Howard. By the time of the next Federal election:

    Newman and the LNP will have lost some of the best wishes and benefit-of-the-doubt it has today. It may not necessarily have lost all credibility whatsoever, but it will be a bit more shopworn than it is today; and

    Gillard will have a greater record of achievement than she has already; and

    Abbott and “Liberal strategists” will still be looking for that one knockout blow that obliterates all of Gillard’s patient work.

    The Queensland result looks to confirm the Federal Coalition in its policy inertia, which may be no bad thing.]
    more in the article

  23. The Lib Dems won’t walk away from the Coalition – too many of them are enjoying the fruits of being in government.

  24. Well excuse us for trying to keep morale high while we pick up the pieces, TLM. I bet you certainly popped the bubbly on Saturday.

    Not that you’d care about rebuilding the party, only posting to sneer at our efforts from your little rat hole. Some Labor Man you are.

  25. [As Labor assesses the fallout from the Queensland election, Kevin Rudd supporters say the devastating election loss will not result in another challenge from the former prime minister.]

    The arrogance of him and his supporters! What happened in Qld happened in Qld. Not federally.

  26. They’d enjoy those same fruits in coalcition with a Labuor led Government, TLM.

    Plus they’d have the added benefit of getting some of their education policies and the like-up, instead of having them constantly steam-rollered by that bunch of Hooray Henrys in the Tory party.

    All it will take is a vote of no confidence and hey-presto: Labour-Lib Dem Government.

    They won’t even have to go to a General Election as Miliband will have the confidence of the House.

  27. confessions

    The devastating result for Labor in Qld does have fed implications imo. Sadly Qlders will vote the same way federally if JG is at the helm. 18 months is not going to help matters. It would need the LNP to stuff up stupendously in Qld for Fed Labor to have any chance of getting the required seats there

  28. zoomster
    [I loved the man – treasure a letter he wrote me – but we do tend to let nostalgia cloud the memories of how disliked he was.]
    Oh he had alot of dislike out there that is for sure, I well remember that. However the achievements of the Labor party could and should have been promoted. They did not need to fly under the Keating banner. The Keating high interest rate spike “horror” could even have been used by Labor. Bringing up the topic of the interest rate spike would have brought out into wider circulation the fact that people paid even more under Howard and his “low rates” .

  29. [Surely the Lib-Dems have got to at least start considering pulling the plug on these corrupt creeps.]

    You would think so..especially when there is disquiet in the Tory ranks brewing bigtime…..

    [Tory MP Mark Field calls for a “full and comprehensive list” of Cameron’s visitors to D/Street flat ]

  30. [The arrogance of him and his supporters! What happened in Qld happened in Qld. Not federally.]

    The thought had crossed my mind too ‘fess.

    After his last challenge being thoroughly defeated, staked, bruned and the ashes buries at sea, here was I thinking that it was rather pointless of Rudd to confirm he won’t be staging another comeback.

    A real no shit Sherlock moment.

  31. [ Sadly Qlders will vote the same way federally if JG is at the helm. ]

    Not sure how you could conclude that, Victoria. Voters can discriminate between Fed/State matters and it plays out all the time.

  32. [Sadly Qlders will vote the same way federally if JG is at the helm. ]

    I don’t accept this. I tend to think voters will vote with their usual interests, but have been wrong many times before.

  33. [Simon Banks ‏ @SimonBanksHB

    Wondering when a pundit will note the obvious take out from Saturday’s Queensland election: Clive Palmer has more influence than the CIA.]

  34. Flaneur @ 579

    Thank you so much! I had left by the time you posted so I am sorry for the delay.

    The change you made is correct and appreciated very much. Would it be possible to delete the comment at the bottom of the entry which says “he died on his birthday”?

    Again thank you!

  35. confessions

    Personally I believe that JG is the right leader for the Labor party right now. She has been brilliant. Unfortunately this does not translate into votes, especially in Qld, WA and to a lesser degree in NSW. Her strong states are SA and my state of Vic.

  36. [The Overt Dictionary ‏ @OvertDictionary

    The Leftists: a group of individuals often mocked for wanting to build a society in which hungry children are fed by the community.]

  37. [The arrogance of him and his supporters! What happened in Qld happened in Qld. Not federally.]

    What happened to Kev in Canberra, recently, and QLD at the weekend was under the tutelage of Bruce Hawker, wasn’t it? That campaign manager now being properly seen as poison, and out of the road, is bound to help Labor federally.

  38. Victoria

    as I pointed out earlier, QLD Labor was polling just as badly when Federal Labor was booming along in the polls (under a PM from QLD, which also goes against the meme that Rudd as PM was an electoral plus for State Labor).

    I don’t deny that there are huge problems for Labor federally (I just don’t believe they’re insurmountable). What I do deny is that there is any real connection between the State Labor vote (which has basically been predictable from late 2008 onwards) and anything that’s happening federally at present.

  39. victoria:

    I’m not suggesting the Qld result be ignored. But at times like this when people are in shock, they can rush into decisions which, while may look good at the time, ultimately prove disastrous in the long term.

    Some of the advice I’ve read yesterday from well-intentioned former Qld premiers for eg, could be placed in this category. My own view is that a deep breath should be taken first.

  40. joe2:

    I remarked after the botched Ruddstoration pitch that it was time for Bruce Hawker to depart the scene. I am still firmly of that view today.

  41. [The result in Qld cannot be ignored.]

    Did not say it should. A shit result in Queensland does not put into doubt the capacity of our present P.M. to win the federal election, as you suggest, Victoria. It is a different ball game.

  42. confessions,

    Hawker needs to go for political reasons. His BS behind the scenes has been as toxic as the actions of the ‘faceless’ men.

    But their PR consultants, Hawker Britton (no longer owned by Hawker) also need to go. Why? Because they obviously haven’t got an effing clue as to what effective communication is let alone how to implement an effective strategic marketing campaign.

  43. confessions@845

    I agree in part. I believed The fed govt with the benefit of time could turn around sentiment in states like Qld. I was strongly against a change of leader. The govt needs to be able to implement the reforms to take place on July 1 and the tax breaks etc. July 1 this year is important and was July 1 last year, with change of senate. I do also believe after this time the govt need to figure out what to do next in terms of getting the electorate on board. I am of the belief that the smear campaign conducted by Labor in Qld to tarnish Newman backfired, but more so because Anna Bligh is female. It sickens me frankly, but that is where I believe we are dealing with

  44. [I remarked after the botched Ruddstoration pitch that it was time for Bruce Hawker to depart the scene.]

    How he could be allowed to immediately head back to the QLD after that, to fight their campaign, is beyond stupid. No doubt it was his personal Newman attack plan, that went completely over the top, that has brought about the more complete burn out.

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