Breakdown broken down

Very much obviously remains to be said about the Queensland state election result, and rest assured that it soon will be. In the meantime, here’s a table which breaks down the damage region by region.

Northern Brisbane 31.7% 51.9% 7.5% 6.9% 0 11 0 0
-16.1% 13.8% -1.0% -10 +10 0 0
Southern Brisbane 33.8% 49.4% 7.7% 5.0% 2 14 0 0
-18.5% 13.7% -0.6% -12 +12 0 0
Inner Brisbane 30.7% 52.5% 13.6% 2.6% 2 8 0 0
-9.5% 12.8% -1.7% -5 +5 0 0
Ipswich 33.6% 38.5% 5.4% 14.1% 1 2 0 0
-24.8% 8.2% -1.9% -2 +2 0 0
Gold Coast 23.4% 58.3% 6.6% 7.3% 0 10 0 0
-17.8% 12.7% -0.2% -4 +4 0 0
Sunshine Coast 16.1% 57.9% 11.3% 6.6% 0 5 1 0
-12.8% 8.6% 1.2% 0 0 0 0
Urban Hinterland 19.1% 51.0% 7.4% 18.7% 0 6 0 0
-14.0% 5.6% -0.4% -1 +2 -1 0
Central Coastal 25.3% 41.3% 4.2% 16.9% 2 8 1 0
-17.4% 2.4% -1.4% -2 +3 -1 0
Northern Coastal 26.4% 40.9% 5.1% 25.4% 1 7 0 0
-17.8% -1.1% -2.7% -5 +5 0 0
Interior 15.7% 50.7% 3.3% 26.9% 0 5 0 2
-10.8% -1.2% -0.2% -1 -1 0 +2
Top End 33.3% 37.7% 5.1% 21.8% 0 1 0 0
-13.5% -4.3% -1.2% -1 +1 0 0
TOTAL 26.8% 49.5% 7.4% 11.6% 8 77 2 2
-15.9% 8.4% -0.6% -43 +43 -2 +2

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

895 comments on “Breakdown broken down”

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  1. QLD Election: Remarkable that Curtis Pitt retained Mulgrave for Labor – one piece of good news for them amidst all of the gloom.

    I fear this is a dress rehearsal for the next federal election – Wayne Swan in particular should be worried, the swings against Labor within the boundaries of his federal seat were enormous.

  2. [Agree with you! People can be persuaded but we need to respect their views as valid in the first place….]

    I’m not much one for coddling political flat-Earthers MTBW.

    If that is truly the way the boke feels (and I note i this regard your previous comments to the effect that you tried, unsuccessfuly, to engage and explain things to him), then no amount of discussion is going to make him wake-up. He’s thinking with his gut and prejudices, not his head.

    You’re using your head. The twain never meet. It’s always: “Yes, I understand that, but……This is how I feel about it.”

    Just ignore him, or call him out for the duped fool he is and move-on.

  3. How on earth can QLD Labor even constitute a working parliamentary opposition with only 7 or 8 MPs? Each MP has 7 shadow ministries to look after?

  4. Hi Lizzie re 47

    I agree with you – much prefer “Fair Go”, and partly because “working Australians” implies non paid working Australians aren’t part of the picture…


  5. I am wondering what effect the preferences choice had. Not sure how it works myself, but in close seats it must have an effect. Any Qlder like to explain?

  6. lizzie, I think the lesson is, do not attack the dodgyness of the opponent, directly, because voters can see and hear themselves. You end up looking like you are in the gutter with them.

  7. joe

    [smithe and Dio, this stuff is surely dynamite on top of all the other involvement Cameron has in the Murdoch scandal.]

    This guy is high up enough that any cross-benchers would support a no confidence if it was Australia.

    We’ll see what the Lib Dems say but England looks rotten to the core.

  8. [Possum Comitatus ‏ @Pollytics
    @NicolaCastleman People always recognise the cost of their own life – they nearly always recognise it being worse than it really is.]


  9. And one further point – I too subscribe to the “expectation” theory. And I too put this down to the Howard years.

    Every time there was an issue, out came the golden promises and so people now expect that their “lifestyle” be supported by government.

    Small example of this sense of entitlement:

    I understand there are some 500 Oz citizens in gaol overseas but as soon as some miscreant gets into strife they want the PM to act on their behalf and send a Qantas jet to pick them up.

  10. SK @ 41

    Over the years we have allowed a culture to exist where anything being done by the Government be it State Federal of Local is seen as the Government wasting “our money” being “our taxes” on ………fill in blank.

    In my family we were taught that “taxes are the price you pay to live in a civilised society”.

    I can understand some of the complaints when Governments waste money in appeasing certain sections of the community but it seems to me that this sort of stuff is getting out of hand. It seems that all sorts of projects are simply a means of buying off voters in certain electorates.

    For each one of those endeavours the rest of the community says “what about us” for every action there is an equal and opposite counter reaction and so it goes.

  11. [We’ll see what the Lib Dems say but England looks rotten to the core.]

    It sure does.

    I guess we’ll finally get to see what sort of spine Clegg has.

    Surely his party had reached the point where they’re more than a tad fed-up with being Cameron’s personal pissoir, even before this latest little piece of corruption hit the meeja.

  12. confessions

    OPV was what I meant by “choices”. Sorry, I had forgotten the correct term.
    If preferences are optional and no one uses them, it ends up first past the post.
    Is that what happens in Qld? I thought Kerry or someone did mention the preference effect last night.

  13. Lizzie in QLD we have the option to vote 1 only for the candidate of choice or distribute preferences. I think a lot more people are likely to just vote 1 in the unusual circumstances of last night.

  14. [Kinkajou
    Posted Sunday, March 25, 2012 at 10:45 am | Permalink
    you are now entering the queensland time zone: put your watches back forty years]

    lol, how true.

  15. mtbw,

    It is not a good culture because it represents opportunity cost. By propping up people financially what is the opportunity cost of doing so? New infrastructure, new industries, alternative energies? Whatever it is it represents the cost of progress and a bright future.

  16. TLM

    An email from a friend of mine who went to Nudgee to help out a relative in the campaign which was a Labor loss.

    [I’ve been in the northern Brisbane seat of Nudgee, a Labor stronghold for its entire 50 year existence with a 14% margin, for the last week of the Qld election campaigning for my niece who was to replace the outgoing Police Minister.

    By 8pm Nudgee fell to the LNP – gone, wiped out with a 17% swing adding to the largest defeat in Labor’s history.

    This seat falls wholly within Federal Treasurer Wayne Swan’s seat of Lilley, and on these figures and with only a 3% margin himself he is history in the making – gone.]

  17. Lizzie was it you that asked about Nudgee electorate? The most concerning thing about last night is that a lot of good young candidates good caught in the night’s events.

  18. [Dick Cheney has literally just had a heart transplant.]

    Who did he steal the heart from?

    Some penniless Iraqui, perhaps?

  19. It may have been you MTBW. When I said Nudgee was as safe as they come I was being genuine. I am as shocked as anyone about last night.

  20. With a majority like that you can expect that back bench will be extremely hard to maintain disipline over. Wonder how Can-do will be able keep a lid on it all ?
    Also, noting that blather of CIA Clive (via Insiders), how beholden will this new government be to Mining (and others) Billionaire ? Are we all about to get an insight to what a vested interest beholden Abbott Government might look like ?

  21. Apparantly some polling booth workers distributed Katter Party votes despite the Katter Party winning the booth meaning the votes should have actually come from the Labor Party to the Katter Party.

    Interesting times people… interesting times!

  22. [Barry O’Farrell ‏ @barryofarrell
    amongst last night’s biggest losers – Bruce Hawker & Eamonn Fitzpatrick ( & the old Bob Carr-style of politics) #qlddvotes]

    I guess Liberals are entitled to some hubris.

  23. Confessions,

    I agree with Fatty’s comments. I made calls here over a year ago saying they needed to be booted. One thing is abundantly clear, they can’t communicate with voters for shit and they are too entrenched in the politicking behind the scenes.

  24. In fact, he’s become something of an Abbott lickspittle.

    One of the video clips shown this morning on insiders, appeared to show Turnbull talking/ counselling abbott just prior to him rising to apologise / withdraw his remark about *targets on their foreheads* last week.

  25. Can anyone verify this comment from my friend in Nudgee:

    [Amazing result by the LNP up here and THE largest defeat in Labor’s history anywhere in the country with the likelihood of not being able to be formally recognised as an Opposition as you need 11 seats to do that and as we speak they only have 5-6 seats….]

  26. [Real Man’s Guide ‏ @realmansguide

    It’s like Queensland collectively woke up this morning with a shattering hangover and a LNP tramp stamp tattoo #candoover]

  27. I didn’t watch Insiders. I assumed it would be a Qld LNP lovefest.

    Some of that as expected, but it wasn’t too bad really.

    Dennis Aiken, Laura Tingle and one of the Kenny’s – the less obnoxious one.

  28. Puff
    Since New Year, apparently Insiders has been unable to get Lib/Nat pollies to appear. Comments have accused Insiders of bias, so they explained last week.
    However, the effect on the show has been bluddy marvellous. Less boring reptition and snarkiness (except from Nikki Savva).
    This morning was quite a clean discussion bet Tingle, Kenny and Dennis.

  29. Queensland, a wholly owned subsiduary of Clive Palmer Enterprises, is going to an interesting place to live for the next couple of years. I think I’ll stay awhile instead of wandering back to the Kimberley as any sane person would do.

  30. MTBW, the requirement is for 10 seats, or if you’ve received over 10% of the primary vote state-wide, 3 seats. Given Labor has achieved over 10% of the primary vote state-wide and more than 3 seats they will receive official party status within the Queensland Parliament.

  31. was at a #fib soiree last night

    gawd the gloating was sickening (tho i suppose if roles reversed, i would too)

    an observation

    lisa newman was constantly mentioned as what a GOOD woman should be, and that anna bligh lost cos she had gone beyond her station in life

    I think the #fibs at their core are still stuck in 1950’s values

  32. Mick Collins,
    I hear Cando is ordering extra sets of knee-pads.

    Puff, I reckon it might get a bit like that.
    By being to close to CIA Clive, Queenslanders are likely to rodger their economy, in a perverse way it might be a necersary experience for them to show them who the real econmonc incompetents are

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