Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition

I have had occasion on this site to mock those who like to predict what the results of looming opinion polls might be. GhostWhoVotes relates that tomorrow’s Newspoll offers an excellent case study on this count: the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead has narrowed since a fortnight ago from 55-45 to 53-47, with Labor’s primary vote up three to 35 per cent (their best result since March last year) and the Coalition’s down one to 45 per cent. However, the script has been followed with respect to Julia Gillard, whose approval rating has plunged six points to 26 per cent while her disapproval rating is up seven to 64 per cent. However, Tony Abbott too has taken a bit hit, down five points on approval to a new low of 31 per cent and up five on disapproval to 57 per cent. Preferred prime minister is little changed, with Abbott’s lead down from 40-37 to 38-36.

UPDATE: The poll also has Kevin Rudd leading Julia Gillard as preferred Labor leader 53 per cent to 28 per cent, which is little changed on where the provisional result published on Friday night had it (53 per cent to 30 per cent), or when Newspoll last posed the question a month ago (52 per cent to 30 per cent).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,080 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition”

Comments Page 14 of 22
1 … 13 14 15 … 22

  2. [Rudd’s fall in 2010 illustrates the fragility of a leader who relies on a personalised mandate and rules around rather than through their party. They are likely to have few genuine allies and survival depends on maintaining support in the fickle opinion polls. This in itself weakens governance and once their electoral Midas touch fades their party is unlikely to be sentimental about deposing such a leader, especially as predominance breeds resentment.

    If this was Rudd’s trouble, it was also Labor’s. For upon precipitously removing him, his colleagues discovered the public was habituated to seeing politics through the prism of leaders – they felt they had anointed a leader rather than voted for a local member of a party. To be brutally reminded that in our system of government it is a parliamentary party’s prerogative to make and break a PM shocked them. Their sense of being cheated by Labor’s regicide hurt Gillard’s legitimacy and created a wave of sympathy for Rudd that rekindled his popularity.

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/has-labors-messiah-complex-finally-taught-it-a-tough-lesson-20120226-1twdo.html#ixzz1nUx7CVNo
    ]

    Wise words from Paul Strangio in that link to The Age

  4. [centaur009

    how do you end up supportin tottenscum anyway?]

    Well it starts with a distaste for cheats and grubs that you get a bit further south.

  8. [Wise words from Paul Strangio in that link to The Age]

    The basic strength of the Westminster system is that the primary personnel can be removed very easily. No-one holds office unless they command the support of a majority of their peers, and those who lose that support will be deprived of power. No-one is immune from this maxim. It is a great system – one that places the will of whole above the rights and privileges of any single individual. It is deeply democratic as well as flexible and is the essence of the sovereignty of Parliamentary.

    Rudd basically does not want to comply with this structural, historical and constitutional reality. It would be a cardinal error to surrender to him on this point. Labor would not deserve to govern if they were to concede to him. He is not above the party and he is not above the Parliament. By his refusal to accept this, he has really made himself unelectable in any circumstances imo.

  10. [Rudd basically does not want to comply with this structural, historical and constitutional reality. It would be a cardinal error to surrender to him on this point. ]
    WTF are you going on about?

    There is nothing stopping a PM from becoming PM again.

  14. [Rudd = Keating like it or not.]

    Errr… no TP. That statement is so demeaning to Keating as to be just, well, silly.

    Keating had vastly more to contribute to a Government than Rudd has. Look, when the going was tough, Keating could take it, Rudd, well, not so much shall we say.

  16. Rudd is the most substantial figure in the contemporary Labor Party. He towers over Julia Gillard intellectually, politically, morally, in his connection with the Australian people and in every other way that counts.

    Very good, Greg. Now, would you like to address each of those points with evidence?

    in every other way that counts

    Did you run out of specifics or was midnight your bedtime?

  18. Dose anyone on this blog REALLY believe that Kevin07, Mark II will sit quietly on the backbench while the Gillard government goes about its business? If you are then you are a victim of a a really severly induced Hawker Brittan hallucination.

  23. Ah, Shorten. Yes I was there at the Tigers Breakers game last year. No applause, just boos. While I felt kinda sorry for the guy, the Australian public won’t forget his role in this train wreck.

    How scary for ALP MPs receiving a flood of mail making it clear what they want.

    Tony Windsor was pretty clear that he really doesn’t want to support Abbott. But what if they have a leadership spill?

    So if they go Rudd, they will have to work.

    If they go Gillard, they will have to stick with her to stay in government. No changing leader unless it’s maybe Kev. Loss of election GUARANTEED!

    You are a f**cking genius Windsor – or should I call you King Solomon? Any wonder Adam Bandt was grinning like he was at a party with straight peeps who don’t know he has munched some awesome googs.

    My mum likes Hockey for all you tories out there. I haven’t got anything obvious against him aside from the obvious 70 Billion black hole. I did appreciate his dressing down of that mongrel at the community meeting who was making some dreadful suggestions even though it mat well have been staged.

    Well rusties, don’t say I didn’t warn you folk. While I am not looking forward to a tory government, I am looking forward to my party getting a big boost. The Greens core grows!

  24. Actually, I am sure Oakeshott, Wilkie, Katter, Crook and the greens have stitched this up – cheers to you all! Well Done?

    And Kev’s Q – “Who is best placed to prevent Tony Abbott from becoming PM?” wtte

    The Indies! 🙂 🙂

    Julia saying all unite – you’d better sort out your house ALP!

  27. So have you guys got Jules’s resignation speech ready?

    “The Australian people and the ALP membership has expressed a clear lack of confidence in my leadership, and as a result, I am stepping down as PM. I have led a good government yadda yadda yadda…”

  29. [Thepaxmeister‏@Paxmeister

    When you see the drivel intro on Greg Sheridan today u thankful a firewall prevents you from being tempted to read more #respill #spillard]

  30. Talk about having the nose rubbed in it! Don’t take it personally Julia, this failure has a thousand fathers including many posters here.

  31. This revelation has seriously undermined my confidence in all the ministerial Gillard backers, particularly the ones that had a dig at Kev!

  36. Indies will force ALP to face an election with Gillard at the helm. Or maybe Kev.

    Swithcheroonies is ruled a foul move unless maybe it’s Kev.

    Checkmate.

  39. TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 ‏ @Thefinnigans Reply Delete Favorite · Open
    @latikambourke Good Morning. Today Kevin Rudd will be tossed into the dust bin of history. The #MSMhacks should let him stay there
    In reply to Latika Bourke

  41. Congratulations to the ALP for euthanising itself and giving progressive forces in this country a chance to start rebuilding in either the greens or a greenfield operation. My guess is that the last organisms out of the cadaver will be the NSW right, after they have paid off their mortgages. They won’t mourn for the party, of course, because they never really liked it anyway.

  42. Well I’ve gotta dash. Hopefully I can steal a few moments to see what’s going on at PB during the day (and night).

    Enjoy the shenanigans!

  43. Morning bludgers,

    Uhlmann has an interesting “Heads we win, tails we lose” proposition.

    * Wayne Swan dumping on Rudd in the past week or so h made a big mistake which could cause a lot of damage down the track to Labor.

    * Julia Gillard’s NOT dumping on Rudd in the past week or so has made a big mistake which could cause a lot of damage down the track to Labor.

    They should have dumped on in 2010, but now that they’ve dumped on him it’s a terrible thing.

    Uhlmann is now telling us that the media will persist with the Ruddstoration story. They never knew Rudd was a serial leaker but, now that they do, they won’t believe anything he tells them unless it’s that Julia is a Godless, athiest bitch. That… they will believe.

    A mucky window on the journalistic creative process.

  45. A good Fairfax read today from M Duffy including –
    [ For the good not just of the Labor Party but of Australian politics, this malevolent Tin Tin should receive as few votes as possible today. The party should then consider reviving the classical Athenian practice of ostracism, where men whose extreme ambition threatened the efficient running of the state could be expelled for 10 years after a popular vote. They did not need to have committed any crime, and there was no defence. It was just a recognition that some people were hollow men driven by rancour. ]

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/tv-star-rudd-a-narcissistic-caricature-20120226-1twdq.html#ixzz1nWKcxCFk

  46. TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 ‏ @Thefinnigans Reply Delete Favorite · Open
    Amazing. Previously PM cant stay if PV is in the 20s, now 35. So the meme’s changed to she cant stay with Approval in the 20s #auspol

  47. Tony Windsor’s comments on JJJ this morning hit the nail on the head (WTTE): “He was never going to win … Why would you bother?”

    Rudd/LibBots: Nice try at astroturfing, but the cheap shiny stuff doesn’t fool anyone.

  48. Libs ‘R’ Us Ross Peake:

    Vote too early for contender

    h­ttp://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/vote-too-early-for-contender-20120226-1twt6.html

    Rudd’s plan was for Labor MPs to realise they couldn’t win the election with Gillard as leader.

    Caucus members were supposed see this clearly after analysing why Labor’s support has been flat-lining, with no improvement in sight.

    The Rudd camp believed it was only a matter of time – almost logical, really – until backbenchers in marginal seats would become increasingly nervous and, eventually, ask the Prime Minister to step down.

    In other words, a remake of the June 2010 coup but less traumatic, classier somehow.
    That’s where the f-bomb video comes in.

    Its release a week ago was a turning point in the slow burning campaign and underlines the saying that a week is a long time in politics.

    The video of Rudd swearing in frustration at his inability to get a grip on a Chinese language script blew the façade off long-repeated denials from both sides that the leadership row was a media beat-up.

  50. Jaeger, if you think I am a bot, you are just as stupid as the rest of the Bollard backers.

    Go through my logic – tell me how the ALP can change to another leader besides Rudd?

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 14 of 22
1 … 13 14 15 … 22