I have had occasion on this site to mock those who like to predict what the results of looming opinion polls might be. GhostWhoVotes relates that tomorrow’s Newspoll offers an excellent case study on this count: the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead has narrowed since a fortnight ago from 55-45 to 53-47, with Labor’s primary vote up three to 35 per cent (their best result since March last year) and the Coalition’s down one to 45 per cent. However, the script has been followed with respect to Julia Gillard, whose approval rating has plunged six points to 26 per cent while her disapproval rating is up seven to 64 per cent. However, Tony Abbott too has taken a bit hit, down five points on approval to a new low of 31 per cent and up five on disapproval to 57 per cent. Preferred prime minister is little changed, with Abbott’s lead down from 40-37 to 38-36.
UPDATE: The poll also has Kevin Rudd leading Julia Gillard as preferred Labor leader 53 per cent to 28 per cent, which is little changed on where the provisional result published on Friday night had it (53 per cent to 30 per cent), or when Newspoll last posed the question a month ago (52 per cent to 30 per cent).
Draft Turnbull now!
Maybe next time, there’ll be a Turnball v. Abbott.
AB
Either that or JoHo v Abbott!
Nobody wants TAbbott just as they don’t want JGillard.
TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans Reply Delete Favorite · Open
Abbott’s nightmare starts this evening with #Newspoll with this: Primary Votes: ALP 35 (+3) L/NP 45 (-1) #auspol
Perhaps nearly any Liberal politician who chooses to challenge Abbott will win.
How interesting that they are withholding Gillard’s disapproval when they have released everything else….can’t wait to see what it is now!
Poor Tone! losing ground when kicking with a strong wind
It could be that these polls have been better than expected for Labor because respondents believe they’re about to get Kevin Rudd back.
Flipper Boy
[Diog, you are on $500 bet that PM Gillard will lead ALP to the next election in 2013.
Put your money where your tree is.]
Good on you. You’re on.
Slight clarification on the bet; it’s whenever the next Fed election is, not just 2013 just in case one happens earlier.
And the money goes to charity, not the Landlocked Cetacean Benevolent Fund. 😀
[Apple Blossom
Posted Sunday, February 26, 2012 at 8:43 pm | Permalink
Perhaps nearly any Liberal politician who chooses to challenge Abbott will win.]
I think you mean …
“…nearly any politician who goes up against Gillard in an election will win”
Tricot
[Itep – one more go!
Like Poroti has been saying time and time again, it is not just the gender thing.]
It is not “just” BUT it is part of the mix. On topic FUACK ME. Considering the hyper bowl of the last week this result is amazing. Roll on June compensation money flowing and the sky not falling and it will be all over for Tones.
Question.. is there a transcript of Albo’s speech?
In particular did he specifically raise the “Rudd would be more electable” point and if so did he go into any detail arguing why?
Well, well, well, even the mighty Newspoll narrowing!
Means not much but certainly belies the chaff from all the “Labor is doomed” merchants.
I’ll be damned eh!
And Labor’s primary at 35% – well, well, well!
“The people want Rudd” seems to be the message from the polls
“We ain’t givin him to ya, now sod off” will be the reply from the Labor caucus it would seem
[It could be that these polls have been better than expected for Labor because respondents believe they’re about to get Kevin Rudd back.]
Which is why I wouldn’t be surprised if after Gillard wins the ALP PV could drop back to 30.
If you draw that bow any longer it’s going to snap, Bemused.
It’s just all part of the general drift back to the ALP we’ve been seeing earlier this year. The last Newspoll was a bit out of kilter with everyone else; this looks like a bit of a correction.
There’s not enough raw data to make a conclusion, but I suspect this one is very close to 52-48. The last one required a few contortions to create 55-45, and this is 2 points better for the ALP. If Greens are 10% and Others 10%, it puts the 2PP just about dead on 47.5-52.5. So it’s likely to be that side of 47 for Labor.
the govt might be marking this as the point of recovery .
William,
They won’t be getting Rudd back!
TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans Reply Delete Favorite · Open
A Senior Liberal Source has just told Twitter this #Newspoll is the beginning of the end of Mr. Abbott #auspol
wlliam 8
these respondents have obviously been in a coma over the last few days!
bk
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WG48Ftsr3OI&feature=related
Finns
JoHo or MTurnbull?
100 ALP pollies bagging Abbott every day for the last week has provided an anti Abbott and Liberal vote impetus that cannot be bought.
Clearly, the do nothing Noism of Abbott and the coalition is starting to bite them on the bum big time.
While every body has been looking at the “red unicorn” of Gillard’s masterful handling of the Rudd challenge, the real story of the Tory demise is gong unreported.
Tricot, I respectfully disagree. I happen to think a lot of the media reaction and stories about Gillard have been sexist, but I also think some things people have derided as sexist are just people reading too much into things. And that’s the last I’ll say on the matter.
Gary Sparrow – I suggest that if Turnbull is considering a move, he will be waiting until some time after 1 July, when the Carbon Package is in place. Then if he becomes a leader it may be less of a fuss to “accept the new reality”, “give business certainty”, or “seek to modify” etc. Before then its more problematic to dump the existing all out opposition of the Libs.
If Turnbull gets back the Coalition will have a majority of 20 seats.
You heard it first.
Most people would be more likely to have indicated that by moving support towards the Liberals as a message to the party room that Jules was not wanted.
‘ respondents believe they’re about to get Kevin Rudd back. ]
Hawker said that 7 minutes ago
WB
[It could be that these polls have been better than expected for Labor because respondents believe they’re about to get Kevin Rudd back.]
Exactly. It’s the Rudd v Abbott compared with Gillard v Abbott vote that matters overwhelmingly.
The approval ratings and PPM are pretty irrelevant IMHO.It doesn’t matter if voters prefer Rudd as PM and he has higher approval ratings, if it doesn’t translate into votes.
[kezza2
Posted Sunday, February 26, 2012 at 8:39 pm | Permalink
Mick Wilkinson
Posted Sunday, February 26, 2012 at 8:37 pm | Permalink
Kezza it is a vile word… No one should denigrate that sacred part of the female anatomy.]
Why is it a vile word if it is talking about a sacred part of the female anatomy???
See what I mean about ILLOGIC!
Do you get it?
[Brendan Brooks @HyperBrendan
judging by that #newspoll, the ALP should keep up this debacle for another 2 months #respill #auspol
8:45 PM – 26 Feb 12]
cud chewer
Are you going to enter the Kevenge Sweepstake for the votes Rudd will ge. You’ll be number 80 ?
Leroy I suspect you are correct and by then TAbbott’s poll numbers could have faded to the point where a spill could be on.
cud chewer
Albo tweeted the transcript of his speech earlier to day, so quite possible it’s on his website.
This is dire for Gillard. This is getting into Keating’s hate territory. Wait for the cricket bats to be out when Gillard wins and the Australian people are angry than, once again, the ALP did not listen to the will of the people. This is no orderly succession but the bloodiest, dirtiest coup that a party in Australia has seen against itself. Each vitriolic soundbite from the last week will be played for years.
The ALP is far from dead, it just smells that way.
Last time they held a spill, I remember somebody just wrote “NO” on their ballot. I thought that was a great idea.
It’d be fitting if “NO” won the Liberals ballot next time. I reckon “NO” would do just as good a job as Abbott. They wouldn’t even need to change their policy direction.
[Apple Blossom
Posted Sunday, February 26, 2012 at 8:39 pm | Permalink
Ah, yes, Blossom, message received loud and clear.
You weren’t prepared to trade your popularity for integrity.
Sounds a bit like Rudd, actually.]
[No, it’s called not wanting to be killed by your boyfriend after the party. They weren’t even my friends, they were his]
So, your boyfriend will KILL (socially ostracise pr break up with you) you if you don’t agree with him?
Sounds like a loving relationship.
Or do you mean it wasn’t worth the hassle of being political?
Even if it means you are hiding your true self?
Your relationship should go far.
Especially the duopoly you’ve set up with your self.
TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans Reply Delete Favorite · Open
There is no truth in the rumour that @TurnbullMalcolm has started whiteanting @TonyAbbottMHR but i like it #auspol
Aguirre,
One of the interesting things that Andrew Catsaras said this morning on Insiders was that the drift to Labor was a continuing phenomena even in to the new year of 2012.
What has happened is a sudden surge here. However, it seems typical of the undelying trend.
cud chewer – albo’s speech
http://anthonyalbanese.com.au/transcript-of-press-conference
[BB
You would give Mr Rudd a portfolio if you thought he was 100% sane. You would try to stitch up a deal with him if you thought he was 100% sane.
I guess we’ll know this time tomorrow night.
My guess is that absolutely nothing would stop Mr Rudd from trying to regain the número uno spot.]
If you are referring to my post #3300 in the previous thread, I don’t think so. The details and exact prognostications might be a bit awry, but using American primaries as a template, this is what should usually happen. Everyone slags each other off, the vote is taken, a winner is declared, they all have a group hug and get on with defeating the main enemy. Countless times this has worked in the past, and why shouldn’t it work here?
What the Labor wonks have said about each other pales into insignificance compared to what the Democrats and Republicans say about their “bretheren” during the run-up elections.
Look, nothing is irretrievable. Any situation can be rescued. The enemy is Abbott’s Coalition, not each other. If you’ve ever been through a family stoush, you’d know that these things can be settled and settled for the better.
Rudd has distinct talents, but has to realise what the proper target should be. For the next little while he’ll be hurt, but give him another one to aim at and he’ll go at it with a vengeance.
This is not being demeaning to Rudd. He is a great man who beat John Howard and saved us from the GFC. You could say his very obsessive nature was EXACTLY what was needed at that critical time. Focus. Aim. Shoot. GFC…. gone.
The guy has amazing people skills, he has offered to “unequivocally” support Gillard until at least the next election. If she wins it then he’ll do something else, or fade away. If she doesn’t, then she’s had her own best shot and Rudd can take over or go to Tuscany, or join the UN… he’s got enough money to do whatever he wants to do.
It’s best to use that talent instead of piss it up against a wall over petty revenge. Rudd has troops on his side. By signing them over to Gillard, he can do a lot of good, immediately. In the longer term, he can make Labor’s position unassailable.
After all, he’s only got Tony Abbott to fight.
I say make him Special Minister Of State, shrug off the catcalls and the playground barracking from the Opposition and BURY Tony Abbott and all he stands for.
If anyone can organize this and get it up and running, it’s Gillard. Rudd will benefit by learning genuine team play skills, Labor will benefit by being united, and the only loser will be the Tories, and they will lose big.
As BW puts it: DISUNITY IS DEATH.
The corollary of that is: UNITY IS VICTORY.
I want Howard back. 🙁
Abbott has had no oxygen, no relevance, and has been bagged day in day out the past week.
tnx zoomster
[It could be that these polls have been better than expected for Labor because respondents believe they’re about to get Kevin Rudd back.]
Interesting hypothesis. Wonder if Labor could install Rudd as a puppet leader, dragged out for social occasions and publicity, while Gillard gets on with business.
Finns
[And the money goes to charity, not the Landlocked Cetacean Benevolent Fund. 😀 ]
And the Labor Party doesn’t count as a charity. 😉
Gary Sparrow
[If Turnbull gets back the Coalition will have a majority of 20 seats.
You heard it first]
What is your entry in the PB Kevenge sweepstake ? First prize being able to go “Nyah nyah told ya.” for 24 hours. How many votes will Rudd get? Currently the high is from Son of Zoomster on 44. Well apart from the unconfirmed 1 Brazillion from Greentard. What say you ?
[Gaven Morris @gavmorris
What will they do next week? RT @TommyTudehope: After possibly the most damaging week in their history Labor’s primary vote is up 3 pts …
8:48 PM – 26 Feb 12
samanthamaiden samanthamaiden @samanthamaiden
@gavmorris @TommyTudehope Shoot people ?
8:50 PM – 26 Feb 12
Tommy Tudehope Tommy Tudehope @TommyTudehope
@samanthamaiden @gavmorris NZ invasion is on the cards.
8:50 PM – 26 Feb 12]
Possum nails it and agrees with William @ 8
tnx Lyne Lady