Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition

I have had occasion on this site to mock those who like to predict what the results of looming opinion polls might be. GhostWhoVotes relates that tomorrow’s Newspoll offers an excellent case study on this count: the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead has narrowed since a fortnight ago from 55-45 to 53-47, with Labor’s primary vote up three to 35 per cent (their best result since March last year) and the Coalition’s down one to 45 per cent. However, the script has been followed with respect to Julia Gillard, whose approval rating has plunged six points to 26 per cent while her disapproval rating is up seven to 64 per cent. However, Tony Abbott too has taken a bit hit, down five points on approval to a new low of 31 per cent and up five on disapproval to 57 per cent. Preferred prime minister is little changed, with Abbott’s lead down from 40-37 to 38-36.

UPDATE: The poll also has Kevin Rudd leading Julia Gillard as preferred Labor leader 53 per cent to 28 per cent, which is little changed on where the provisional result published on Friday night had it (53 per cent to 30 per cent), or when Newspoll last posed the question a month ago (52 per cent to 30 per cent).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,080 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  1. Latham: Rudd has played the game of inflating his own numbers to the media.

    The msm hasn’t come out of this looking good at all.

  2. Latham points to previous two-srike challengers and notes the symetry in that they all increased their margins by around a dozen. Rudd would need to pick up 23 in a 2nd challenge, which Latham says is in la-la land.

  3. Latham just said Hartcher’s Two-Strike theory is La-La Land.

    Sky panel agrees that further speculation is “just silly”, “not gonna happen”, “fantasy”.

    Think of all that time wasted by journalists telling their readers and viewers that Rudd was making a come back. Think of all the damage done to the national discourse by this bullshit.

    And now they’re saying it was never gonna happen.

  4. I don’t seem to be able to get onto the new thread, and I want to claim the prize with Sprocket for the tipping competition, have been offered sausages, thick thin not sure what to take?

  5. Me either Maris. Looks like we are stuck in here. Essential has come in as I would have expected so not sure how much store we should put in polls until the dust settles.

  6. [Shellbell
    Posted Monday, February 27, 2012 at 2:38 pm | Permalink
    sorry mari – I think all that is left is the chuck steak

    Posted Monday, February 27, 2012 at 2:40 pm | Permalink
    Me either Maris. Looks like we are stuck in here. Essential has come in as I would have expected so not sure how much store we should put in polls until the dust settles]

    Are we the only ones? and now I am down to chuck steak, not fair, I was really after
    the cutlets

  7. That’s what happened when you let posts after posts after posts of ranting of the same things from then posters like Evan2GB, TP, Greetag etc. they simply chewed up the bandwidth.

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