Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition

I have had occasion on this site to mock those who like to predict what the results of looming opinion polls might be. GhostWhoVotes relates that tomorrow’s Newspoll offers an excellent case study on this count: the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead has narrowed since a fortnight ago from 55-45 to 53-47, with Labor’s primary vote up three to 35 per cent (their best result since March last year) and the Coalition’s down one to 45 per cent. However, the script has been followed with respect to Julia Gillard, whose approval rating has plunged six points to 26 per cent while her disapproval rating is up seven to 64 per cent. However, Tony Abbott too has taken a bit hit, down five points on approval to a new low of 31 per cent and up five on disapproval to 57 per cent. Preferred prime minister is little changed, with Abbott’s lead down from 40-37 to 38-36.

UPDATE: The poll also has Kevin Rudd leading Julia Gillard as preferred Labor leader 53 per cent to 28 per cent, which is little changed on where the provisional result published on Friday night had it (53 per cent to 30 per cent), or when Newspoll last posed the question a month ago (52 per cent to 30 per cent).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,080 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  1. [Just flicked over to ABC where Uhlmann is carrying on about how great Abbot is.]

    When I was listening he was talking about Abbott being deeply unpopular and that the Liberals must be thinking of replacing him?

  2. I used to feel sad for the loss of Sunday Speakers in the Domain where all the crazies would stand on an apple crate and display their insanity for the world to see. Thanks to TP for showing me that it survives today on the internet.

  3. Again, whatever the result, I tend to think the Rudd challenge has been a good thing: its cleared the air, made Team Gillard tell the truth (its been obvious theyve been fibbing about the reasons for 2010); brought Team Rudd into the open, (where theyve behaved far better than they do behind closed doors), and shown us who should be retired (Swan) and who should rise (Albanese).

    Critically, it has also allowed key members – partic Albanese – to effectively issue an apology for the party’s bad and wrong behaviour in rolling Rudd, which I expect will be constructive for the party, and maybe for many of Rudd’s supporters.

    Wishing the poison of June 2010 away was always whistling dixie. It had to come to this.

  4. [This little black duck
    Posted Monday, February 27, 2012 at 10:16 am | Permalink

    Last night on the bench would not have been fun: we had 5mm overnight.]
    No wonder he was sour then, hope he spends a few more nights on the Park Bench then

  5. 1011 – lefty e

    I agree with just about everything you said. Disagree about Swan retiring. He should be replaced as deputy but left as treasurer IMO.

  6. Poll findings, respondents 2922

    1. 38% back Julia Gillard, 36% Kevin Rudd and 24% neither
    2. There is a strong gender effect with women, 47% being more likely than men 33% to back Julia Gillard. Conversely 29% of women and 39% of men back Kevin Rudd.
    3. The male bias in the Rudd vote also explains the fact that Rudd is most strongly backed by Liberal voters, while Gillard is backed by Labor and Greens voters.
    4. …because men are more likely to vote Liberal at the moment.
    5. Rudd’s strength is also in the most Liberal-voting state – his home state of Queensland. This is one of the few favourable things to come out of the poll. Labor needs to desperately retain and win seats in Queensland.
    6. The other plus for Rudd is that he enjoys a huge lead over Gillard amongst the 7% of voters who are undecided.
    7. This includes voters who are undecided this time but voted for other parties last time.
    8. Voting for Rudd is also a sign of youth.

  7. watching the journos almost orgasmic anticipation , if they can’t get a drama they’ll create one , they’re addicted to drama real or imagined .

  8. Puff – has JG got red on? I sent an email to her office yesterday suggesting that red is the colour courageous women love to wear and that she is one very courageous woman. Not sure if I put it on PB tho.

    BTW – it suits her too. She wears it with gusto.

  9. After the Lib leadership vote, Speers got a text msg to say who the winner was, and could announce live on air before everyone else knew. Wonder if that’ll happen today.

  10. [Critically, it has also allowed key members – partic Albanese – to effectively issue an apology for the party’s bad and wrong behaviour in rolling Rudd, ]

    In this way the ‘faceless’ toxic men who destroy Labor survive and think they have gotten away with it, by the skin of their teeth in 2010, and again today. It would have been good for the party maybe to have lost in 2010 so that the likes of Arbib and his buddies, and complicity of Gillard could be dealt with.

  11. [MrRabbitt ‏ @Antibolt

    “@AshGhebranious: LOL Press gallery reading the tweets while waiting #respill #auspol #kevenge”. Hey guys…is @Rupertmurdoch in jail yet?]

  12. [I agree with just about everything you said. Disagree about Swan retiring. He should be replaced as deputy but left as treasurer IMO.]

    Actually, yes, thats a better idea Tom. The Deputy should be Albo, keep Swan as Treasurer.

  13. [they’re addicted to drama real or imagined]

    That’s why they got into the gig in the first place. If there’s no drama they’ll make it up

  14. [If Rudd resigns his seat. Expect Beattie to be preselected for it]

    If only! He’s never forgiven Rudd for trying to undermine his role in Fitzgerald implementation, or for his role in Goss’s defeat. Given what damage Rudd’s dummy spit during the Q election campaign might have done to protege Anna Bligh’s re-election campaign, Beattie’s attitude to Rudd sure wouldn’t have improved!

    Sadly, Heather’s threatening to divorce/ kill him if he does – at least that’s what he told the media – and they sure don’t need the money.

  15. On a different, but far more encouraging note: Australia’s first National Broadband Network Digital Hub and Digital Enterprise service launched in Townsville

    [THERE was a Rudd in the room but thankfully for the Federal ALP it was not “the” KRudd.

    No, it was NBN Co’s Darren Rudd but the coincidence was not lost on the small crowd who attended the launch of the nation’s first National Broadband Network Digital Hub and Digitial Enterprise services in Townsville on Saturday.

    Senator Jan McLucas said the Townsville “Digital Hub”, located at the Aitkenvale Library, would provide training for local residents and give more people the opportunity to experience NBN-enabled services and technology.

    “The NBN will change the way we live and work here in the north,” Senator McLucas said.]

    Much better news!

  16. No meat tray for me: 73-29.

    This is not the end of it. Although an uneasy alliance between Diogs and myself, we have already informed Uhlmann confidentially that we will continue to white-ant PB in hopes of another Labor spill further down the track.


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