I have had occasion on this site to mock those who like to predict what the results of looming opinion polls might be. GhostWhoVotes relates that tomorrow’s Newspoll offers an excellent case study on this count: the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead has narrowed since a fortnight ago from 55-45 to 53-47, with Labor’s primary vote up three to 35 per cent (their best result since March last year) and the Coalition’s down one to 45 per cent. However, the script has been followed with respect to Julia Gillard, whose approval rating has plunged six points to 26 per cent while her disapproval rating is up seven to 64 per cent. However, Tony Abbott too has taken a bit hit, down five points on approval to a new low of 31 per cent and up five on disapproval to 57 per cent. Preferred prime minister is little changed, with Abbott’s lead down from 40-37 to 38-36.
UPDATE: The poll also has Kevin Rudd leading Julia Gillard as preferred Labor leader 53 per cent to 28 per cent, which is little changed on where the provisional result published on Friday night had it (53 per cent to 30 per cent), or when Newspoll last posed the question a month ago (52 per cent to 30 per cent).
[Kevin Rudd: the biggest mistake in my life: Bruce Hawker]
What I’d love to see is the political journos actually doing a professional analysis of what Hawker is saying, what his evidence is, and whether it has merit or is itself based on faith.
Oh FFS, The ABC dude is banging on about the significance of polling. Sad watching the media try to cover something when nothing is happening.
Qld Senator Furner is of the Right and says voting (according to PB) with Julia Gillard
Qld Senator Moore is of the Left and says voting (walked in with him this time and in 2010) with Kevin Rudd
Moore was duty senator for Longman during the Rudd years
Furner is duty senator for Lingman in the Gillard years.
Franks is so peacful
TLM. Gillards approval numbers are clouded by Rudds inclusion. Any a few weeks ago she was leading Abbott on ppm.
Turnbull has been reported very “impressed” with Bruce Hawker & thinking of hiring him as his Strategist to destabilize Abbott #auspol
fingers crossed for 115 -13
Paine, as usual, you have nothing of substance and you’re full of shit.
Keep chewin that cud, cud.
You’ll figure it out.
OPT,
It could have been worse. At least it is a muted green.
http://whatthepeoplewant.net/polls-blog/february-2012/qpeople-powerq-falters.html
Check out these numbers, numbers junkies. Confirms something I suspected. Twitter also had positives for Julia running 2:1 in the analysis of comments. Demographic information is very interesting. Not sure of the validity but maybe William can comment.
[“The winner will face question time at 2PM.”]
Even Sky aren’t talking as if the ballot will be a contest.
[Her toxic ratings mean she is for the chop at some time.]
= instant election unless Rudd.
TP gimme some grins!
[ Kevin Rudd: This is most humble day of my life
It will get humbler pal!]
You think so.
Have you seen their respective figures. What Rudd has lost is not the people, he doesn’t have the faction powers who fear him. Rudd is supported by the people, Gillard detested. Gillard’s victory will be in the knowledge that is to protect factional powers.
Crabbe asking Pommy poll wonk how Labor’s primary vote can possibly be rising when the journos all know they are finished?
Joe O’Brien pointing out that Labor support has been rising steadily, across the polls.
Poll wonk on now trying to explain how it’s all a mirage.
Crabby, now hypothesizing upon hypothesis, but poll wonk won’t be moved: Gillard Gone!
Poll wonk now saying that poll rise could be Julia’s problem (I can see the headlines, “Labor poll triumph spells doom for Gillard”).
Crabby asking how valuable and durable are polls taken in volatile circumstances like last week. Poll wonk admits polls are just a snapshot. No shit, Sherlock!
Conceding that some PMs have had even worse results (e.g. Howard).
The media have decided that it’s all over and, if it isn’t, that’s what they’ll write anyway. I’ve seen this before, in 2006 when no matter how many polls Labor won the story was that they were tanking in the polls and in despair over public opinion. This was self-deluding rubbish that turned out to be a complete crock, of course, but at the time it was the only game in town.
Walshe getting a big stroppy with the stupid commentary of Speers and Gilbert who are still trying to beat up a third challenger in a few months’ time.
Real Madrid are called Los Merengues.
And they don’t appreciate it!
BLACK DUCK – I know, but have you seen how many penalties Real Madrid have got this year? And every time RM go behind someone gets sent off (another red against Rayo). Outrageous. Barca isn’t allowed to win this year.
What are people worried about? Of coure Gilard will win easily, that was always going to be the case when the factional powers decided upon a slash and burn campaign.
Can’t some tell Crabbe that her poll’s wonk is using serioously flawed data, or it that just the ABC pushing their Liberal board’s agenda
TP – why don’t you mosey on back a few pages from this morning.
And now we are talking to people in the street. Dear Dawkins!
Again, it won’t matter if it is 103/0.
Gillard will need to be replaced, and Rudd is the only person the public want, at this stage.
BLACK DUCK – Though you’re right, it is silly of me.
TLM
[Gillard’s approval rating is below 30% – the caucus might love her, but she ain’t going to win an election.]
Thanks for that. The revelations keep coming.
[Gillard’s approval rating is below 30% – the caucus might love her, but she ain’t going to win an election.]
Why would you care – you’ve disengaged from politics
bye
[Franks is so peacful]
Perhaps you should stay there – where your views can;t be challenged by others” opinions.
If they are going to show scenery, why not Canberra!
Vexnews says Gillard will kick 2 ministers out. Probably Carr and McClelland?
THOMAS – Nobody likes the bearer of bad tidings, but stay the course.
Equitist @OzEquitist Reply Retweeted Favorite · Open
I note that #Newspoll has excluded a huge 8% of would-be respondents, still claims MoE +/-3%! resources.news.com.au/files/2012/02/… #respill #AusPol #Kevenge
Can you explain this 8% William?
[Pain Engine, you are such a loser]
The losers are those who in the grip of cult.
Showson
How vexing
Arsenal beat Spurs 5-2 coming from 0-2.
Yes, I don’t understand why the actual numbers count.
It’s the second spill this year that is the important one.
It might matter a bit, if Rudd votes against himself.
BTW Poroti, I’m backing unity, ie unanimous.
[Why would you care – you’ve disengaged from politics
bye]
You have never enaged in politics, only simple Gillard fanboyism, which will be the demise of Labor, but still protect the likes of Arbib…. they thank you for coming.
[Vexnews says Gillard will kick 2 ministers out. Probably Carr and McClelland?]
Probably.
[It’s the second spill this year that is the important one.]
Yes Shows! 🙂
Hey evan
If Rudd resigns his seat. Expect Beattie to be preselected for it
That second one would be libspill.
103 – 0 would be remarkable: only 102 there.
I am claiming the JG jacket Stakeswith BH (or was it BK?) I said red yesterday, and all those musings about colours late last night were because I was tired and emotional. If Toolman can pick which poll he notices, so can I!
Just flicked over to ABC where Uhlmann is carrying on about how great Abbot is.
Sky has more balanced commentary.
[The media have decided that it’s all over and, if it isn’t, that’s what they’ll write anyway. I’ve seen this before, in 2006 when no matter how many polls Labor won the story was that they were tanking in the polls and in despair over public opinion. This was self-deluding rubbish that turned out to be a complete crock, of course, but at the time it was the only game in town.]
How disappointingly true. Makes me more determined to get off my butt and work harder than a dog over the next 18 months to prove the ‘inbred journo circle’ wrong, wrong, wrong.
[Her toxic ratings mean she is for the chop at some time.]
I guess neither Howard’s nor Keating’s did either. Or, for that matter, Bob Menzies’ 1949-52.
Bob even had to pull the so-called Communist Referendum & Reds to counter the opprobrium of Oz’s highest ever inflation rate (22% + a bit) massively devaluing Australian’s War Bonds & Saving accounts that many believed would pay for their houses after war rationing finished and they reached the top of the queues for builders – there had been almost no domestic building after WW II started, and even less after Pearl Harbour.
Toolman almost said something sensible about politics changing quickly. I am now waiting for the latex mask to come off…
I wonder if Kev will be using little dolls to explain the situation? I think they might be needed.
[You have never enaged in politics, only simple Gillard fanboyism, which will be the demise of Labor, but still protect the likes of Arbib…. they thank you for coming.]
don’t worry – time will mend your broken heart