I have had occasion on this site to mock those who like to predict what the results of looming opinion polls might be. GhostWhoVotes relates that tomorrow’s Newspoll offers an excellent case study on this count: the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead has narrowed since a fortnight ago from 55-45 to 53-47, with Labor’s primary vote up three to 35 per cent (their best result since March last year) and the Coalition’s down one to 45 per cent. However, the script has been followed with respect to Julia Gillard, whose approval rating has plunged six points to 26 per cent while her disapproval rating is up seven to 64 per cent. However, Tony Abbott too has taken a bit hit, down five points on approval to a new low of 31 per cent and up five on disapproval to 57 per cent. Preferred prime minister is little changed, with Abbott’s lead down from 40-37 to 38-36.
UPDATE: The poll also has Kevin Rudd leading Julia Gillard as preferred Labor leader 53 per cent to 28 per cent, which is little changed on where the provisional result published on Friday night had it (53 per cent to 30 per cent), or when Newspoll last posed the question a month ago (52 per cent to 30 per cent).
[ Bilbo, you are failing your duty as a moderator, big time. ]
That’s the meat tray with no moderation for 2 hours?
Puffy
You are right after all. Where did you get the white jacket from?
confessions
[poroti:
Do you have the latest Kevenge tips for PB?]
1 brazillion (unconfirmed) Greentard
52 geoffrey
45 mick77
44 Son of Zoomster
43 WeWantPaul
42 Scorpio
41 Centaur009 , Mr Squiggle
40 lefty e
39 Mod Lib
38 Darn, Gary Sparrow
37 Dyno , Luckydave
36 shellbell
35 stanny ,ShowsOn, Benji
34 p m z , ltep ,Thornleigh Labor Man, deblonay
33 Andrew , BH , dave
32 Super,vitalise, DavidWH ,madcyril, Tom Hawkins, slackboy72 ,Burgey
31 Centre, Boerwar, mari , bluegreen,henry,sprocket
30 BK, mexicanbeemer , Apple Blossom
29 Think Big ,outside left ,Gary, fiz
28 muttleymcgee, zoidlord ,robot ,Rossmore , HaveAchat, Harry “Snapper” Organs, Rod Hagen
27 Tricot, confessions, Bushfire Bill ,Diogenese ,Boinzo , rosemour ,dedalus
26 Poroti ,womble
25 It’s Time ,Dan Gulberry , Aguirre , Mick Collins , Paul_J , citizen , The Finnigans
24 AJ Canberra ,TLBD ,Lord Barry Bonkton , jeffmu ,Michael Cusack ,Greensborough Growler
23 Imacca,smithe ,Dr Fumbles McStupid , kevjohnno, briefly
22 Danny Lewis ,political animal
21 fredn ,Puff, the Magic Dragon ,Gorgeous Dunny
20 Jaeger, janice2 , sohar
19 Last name red wombat
18 Gusface , oyster
17 kezza2, Scringler ,cog, cybercynicagain
10 Ctar , rummel
4 my say
3 canasta76
0 (Team Rudd default) Oakeshott Country ,jenauthor , JohD ,Gaffhook,radguy
A very brave -13 deflationite
[Kevin Rudd: This is most humble day of my life]
It will get humbler pal!
Sky News pointing out all the ways in which Rudd and Abbott are similar.
Horker Britton are torkin about the corkus.
Thanks poroti.
This is how they celebrate a goal on the Barcelona Fan Blog.
GOOOOOOOOAAAAAAAAAAAAALLLLLLLOZZZZZZAaaaaa
What he said was: This is the day I eat umble pie.
Man I am tired of journalists interviewing journalists …
Just mulling as the vote takes place – the critics of the Labor voting in the leadership have to ask some questions.
If, with all the weight of the msm against Gillard, and the public in love with KR – seemingly, why is the party going against the odds? They do not have a death wish as I can see it as they are politicians.
Might it just well be the public and the media don’t have to work with the man.
It is interesting his personal style, which the media were more than happy to pick on -such as his fits of pique, barely get a mention now. Clearly the conservatives thought Rudd was their best home. The Lemon adds were ready to go. Also, I see Anna B, sensitive to the “He is a pig to work with/for” claim, says she gets on well with him. Well, she would say that.
More significantly, Rudd is not getting support from his fellow Queenslanders.
What does this tell us – if anything?
Anyone got any contracts they want me to check for them? $10,000 per hour! Nah, just kidding. $1000 per hour. It can take some time though, checking details can be tricky for governments. Sometimes it takes longer than electorally popular. Some get impatient. They need to chill.
[Shows,
I hope he is participating in The Great Shave fundraiser.]
Why?
[ Bilbo, you are failing your duty as a moderator, big time.
That’s the meat tray with no moderation for 2 hours?]
He’s at the butcher shop right now.
Red jacket? She had white on this morning?
[He’s at the butcher shop right now.]
There’ll plenty of sausages
Shows,
re Beardman
He has much to offer.
Sky reporting Furner has gone from the Rudd camp to the Gillard camp. Saying his numbers would be 29 at best.
confessions
What comparisons did they make re Rudd vs Abbott?
Who thinks we will find out the result before the returning officer reports it to the media?
i.e. which journalist will get the SMS first?
As a Queenslander (and a past Nambour High student – no one liked him at School either – Swannie was the man) I think Rudd’s QLD support thing is overstated. Sure – we can be a bit weird up here. But we hate a show pony.
Your meat tray may be gone Bb – Coorey now saying Furner from Qld now gone to JG
[Aguirre
Posted Monday, February 27, 2012 at 9:54 am | Permalink
Chris Uhllman sums it up. Gillard may get 70 votes this morning, but only because some MPs don’t want another leadership change.
They aren’t actually supporting Gillard because they think she can win.
Incisive work there from Uhlmann. His ability to latch onto the most simplistic interpretation and ignore everything else is a wonder to behold.
Why don’t they want another leadership change? Is it perhaps because they think Gillard is doing a better job than Rudd can?
Is it also possible they’re supporting Gillard and (not because) they think she can win?
These are question Uhlmann deems unworthy.]
I guess he had a sleepless night on a couch or a park bench, poor little petal no wonder he isn’t thinking clearly
LOL Sky are blaming the media for inflating Rudd’s numbers!
[It’s time to update your now ironic user name.]
Something like “Ditch the bitch pleeeeease”?
The answer to the eternal question: does size matter? is yes!
victoria:
Noting the similar stances on pokies and carbon pricing.
Rudd is Abbott lite.
I am watching ABCnews24, maybe i saw some old footage of JG.
Kevin Rudd: the biggest mistake in my life: Bruce Hawker
Tricot it might be because both the media and the public are fickle and what will matter in 2013 is stability and good governance (and restoring Labor’s brand) ?
I find this one hard to pick.. I prefer stability if there’s nothing else to go with. If someone here could genuinely convince me that come 2013 Rudd will be more popular and that will translate to votes sure please do. So far all I’ve seen on PB is allusion and inference.. no sound, reasoned argument that stands up to analysis.
[Shows,
re Beardman
He has much to offer.]
He would be a better Treasurer than Swan!
mari,
Last night on the bench would not have been fun: we had 5mm overnight.
confessions
Interesting. The lefties won’t like that.
The Finnigans
[Kevin Rudd: the biggest mistake in my life: Bruce Hawker]
Bruce Hawker: the biggest mistake in my life: Kevin Rudd
Bugger the meat tray… I just got an email telling me I won the Coca-Cole Award.
All I have to do to claim my 500,000.00 (doesn’t say whether Dollars, Euros, or Transylvanian Zlotys) prize is fill in my full name, address, date of birth, banking details, social security number and telephone contacts.
Funny… I can’t even remember entering, and I don’t drink Coke.
Suck it up Labor tragics, I’m rich now. Joining the Liberals this afternoon. Go Ruddock!
No guarantees Cud – just a q of Kev or Julia, no one else.
Oh that rotten media again. Lucky SKY are outside of all that.
Son of foro
I expect Bruce Hawker will keep writing Norma fan mail, so that she can cling to the belief people haven’t forgotten…
Following a game on the Barcelona fan blog is tough, because you have to keep replacing your keyboard.
The stuff they put on ABC95 is just silly:
“The winner will face question time at 2PM.”
D’oh!
I guess my real annoyance is the leap of faith that keeps getting taken, here and in the media from “popularity” to “2013 poll outcome”.. I do wish our media were more professional than that. Indeed I wish some here on PB would disengage their emotions and look at it rationally.
And before anyone spits the dummy, I will add I like Rudd and I think what was done was unfair. I’m just saying I’d need to be convinced that in the sum of all things, if he was leader, labor would ACTUALLY do better in 2013. And I’m not. I”d even go so far as say I’d like to be convinced.
Oh, gawd. Annabel’s channelling Helen Bonham Carter’s Suitable Outfit for a Big Occasion; though I doubt Annabel does it as nose-thumbing commentator-fodder.
[Bruce Hawker: the biggest mistake in my life: Kevin Rudd]
poroti, keep them red herrings swimming, yummo
The Australian peeps will be angry if this gets dragged out. Best chance is now for the ALP.
rosa
[Following a game on the Barcelona fan blog is tough, because you have to keep replacing your keyboard.]
The same can happen here. Greentard and the /////’s definitely signalled new keyboard time.
rosa,
Messi got a yellow, not a red; and they beat Atletico M. 2-1.
Gillard’s approval rating is below 30% – the caucus might love her, but she ain’t going to win an election.
@ BB
I got an email yesterday from a Chilean lawyer offering me 40% of many millions of dollars from a distant relatives estate.
Unfortunately this is wont be over for Gillard after she wins this ballot today.
Her toxic ratings mean she is for the chop at some time.
Rosa
[Following a game on the Barcelona fan blog is tough, because you have to keep replacing your keyboard.]
As a young lad I had a soft spot for Real Madrid, I think it was their natty white strip. When I found out the political history I felt real dirty. Now it’s Barca all the way!