I have had occasion on this site to mock those who like to predict what the results of looming opinion polls might be. GhostWhoVotes relates that tomorrow’s Newspoll offers an excellent case study on this count: the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead has narrowed since a fortnight ago from 55-45 to 53-47, with Labor’s primary vote up three to 35 per cent (their best result since March last year) and the Coalition’s down one to 45 per cent. However, the script has been followed with respect to Julia Gillard, whose approval rating has plunged six points to 26 per cent while her disapproval rating is up seven to 64 per cent. However, Tony Abbott too has taken a bit hit, down five points on approval to a new low of 31 per cent and up five on disapproval to 57 per cent. Preferred prime minister is little changed, with Abbott’s lead down from 40-37 to 38-36.
UPDATE: The poll also has Kevin Rudd leading Julia Gillard as preferred Labor leader 53 per cent to 28 per cent, which is little changed on where the provisional result published on Friday night had it (53 per cent to 30 per cent), or when Newspoll last posed the question a month ago (52 per cent to 30 per cent).
oops
poss just tweeted this
[Newspoll – Roflol. Abbott’s approval down 5, Gillard’s down 6 and ALPs vote improves as some people think Rudd will be back o_O]
he is copping it bigtime
😉
[So, your boyfriend will KILL (socially ostracise pr break up with you) you if you don’t agree with him?
Sounds like a loving relationship.
Or do you mean it wasn’t worth the hassle of being political?
Even if it means you are hiding your true self?
Your relationship should go far.
Especially the duopoly you’ve set up with your self.]
The thing is, Kezza, I was simply not in the mood to be political at the time. I just didn’t want to cause arguments and hassled later for it. Me not being true to myself would be agreeing with them, in which I didn’t. I just chose not to say anything because I didn’t want to.
Mick
If Howard hadn’t have taken away the no-disadvantage test we’d into the 16th year of a Coalition Govt with Costello as PM for the past 4 years….
Much better than this rabble or TAbbott either!
Lindsay Tanner was one of the ALPs best in recent years.. What a waste… Peter Costello could whip Wayne Swan on any measure and John Howard looks statesmanlike next to the rabble we have on both sides..
Sigh.
[8
William Bowe
It could be that these polls have been better than expected for Labor because respondents believe they’re about to get Kevin Rudd back.]
There are three possibilities:
– there is no underlying change, simply fluctuation within the MOE
– the public are glad that Labor are going to deal with the leadership issue per se, even though they may not personally favour Gillard to win. This ballot is cleaning up unfinished business from 2010, clears the decks and is a “good thing”. (People like democracy, after all)
– the public know Rudd will get a belting
Of the three, the second is the most likely imo.
Don’t think you’ll find much support in Mick for retaining the no disadvantage test Glen. In fact it doesn’t make much sense at all from a liberal perspective.
Diog, the bet is ON!!!!!! Accept or say solly.
[William Bowe
It could be that these polls have been better than expected for Labor because respondents believe they’re about to get Kevin Rudd back.]
No. Because they are beginning to hear the message “GET THINGS DONE”
Bushfire Bill @ 41. Hawker Britton stuff for Monday 7.30 Report at its best.
Labor have already tried all that
Finns
Accepted.
My charity is Medecins Sans Frontiers, if I win.
[Possum Comitatus @Pollytics
·More
Newspoll – Roflol. Abbott’s approval down 5, Gillard’s down 6 and ALPs vote improves as some people think Rudd will be back o_O ]
No meat tray for Possum.
Rudd IS back. He “unequivocally” (his word) hands over his supporters to Gillard, with a suitable as-only-KRudd-can-do-it speech, and the party is instantly united.
[Tommy Tudehope Tommy Tudehope @TommyTudehope
@samanthamaiden @gavmorris NZ invasion is on the cards.
8:50 PM – 26 Feb 12]
Try and keep up ! The invasion started when the sheepen shaggers gave us the first Labor PM and then in a cruel stroke sent over their Manchurain candidate Johannes Bjelke Petersen. Then the fiends sent over Rann. Note Rann’s cuddliness with the Ruddster.Resistance is futile bro 😆
Finns
No all they are hearing is Labor MPs trash talk a former PM who rid the country of JWH and calling him insane.
Gary
I have to agree. Any party in power for a long period tend to get closer to its fringe.. In Howard’s case the right.. Even he finally admits that now. In order to come back into power each party needs to’centre’ which is what Rudd did.. Me-tooing the coalition in 2007. Predictably, we lurch now to the left on IR, spend and tax econimics, bigger government with pathetic services and sucking up tothe Greens for goodness sake.
Eventually (maybe even NOW!) the swinging voters have had a gutfull. The Greens may well have peaked now. Their true colours are out and middle Australia who voted for them rightly feel deceived.
The ALP has painted itself into a corner mostly because polling scared thecrap out of them in 2010 and Ruddy had no faction to help him.
I love it when a plan comes together
Tried to post this on the other thread
[The Finnigans
Posted Sunday, February 26, 2012 at 6:57 pm | Permalink
Final Call: PM Gillard 77 Rudd 25
Our final count of the publicly declared support: PM Gillard 61 Rudd 19 with 22 Known Unknown. The question is how will the Unknowns break. Sportsbet is reporting the oadds of PM Gillard $1.11 Rudd $6.25. Based on that we took the conservative approach and say the Unknowns will be break 70:30 to PM Gillard’s favour.
Thus this will give PM Gillard additional 16 votes to 77 and Rudd 6 votes to 25. That is our final call: 77 to 25
http://afrankview.net/2012/02/a-quick-dirty-list-of-declared-supporters/ ]
I called 21 more in hope than expectation. I wanted Rudd to be thoroughly trounced. I guess 25 would do just as well.
So Newspoll no substantive difference? All that drama and no drag on Labor’s support?
The most likely explanation is that the public is still essentially switched off from politics. The other one already mentioned is no oxygen for Abbott.
Some of Gillard’s achievements have finally got some mention, but I doubt whether this would feed into polls yet.
[Gary Sparrow
Posted Sunday, February 26, 2012 at 8:55 pm | Permalink
Mick
If Howard hadn’t have taken away the no-disadvantage test we’d into the 16th year of a Coalition Govt with Costello as PM for the past 4 years….
Much better than this rabble or TAbbott either!]
Correction: we would be into the 5th year of a Costello government if he had stepped aside…..
Newspoll must be holding back the Rudd data.
The public who don’t understand the process or the numbers will assume Rudd’s coming back to the leadership hence the ALP bounce.
It will bounce back to 30% next week.
[Bushfire Bill @ 41. Hawker Britton stuff for Monday 7.30 Report at its best.
Labor have already tried all that]
Maybe you don’t understand the history Dr. John. Special Minister Of State was code for “Minister For Propaganda”.
You use your strengths. You don’t piss them up against a wall.
I’m prepared to forgive Rudd for his transgressions. He seems prepared to bury the hatchet for the good of the party. Albo is the new Faulkner, keeping everyone honest.
The slightest hint of a leak will be sheeted home to Rudd. He’llmake sure they don’t happen.
Get him working for you, not against you.
TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans Reply Delete Favorite · Open
Amazing isnt it. If Labor PV has crashed back to late 20s. Guess what the commentary will be: Gillard fucked up ALP PV” wangkers #auspol
Here is a video of Newspoll CEO Martin O’Shannessy discussing the results:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BOvYe1szrsQ
Finns
35% aint nothing to crow about…and it was Rudd who lifted it not your princess Ms Gillard!
Shanahan will be picking over the bones of this NewsPoll like an alley cat with its head in a restaurant rubbish bin.
Would anyone care to comment on Julia Gillard’s 26 per cent approval rating?
Don’t you hate it when the only way to analyse a poll result is to say …. wait for the next round of polls in the next fortnight!
C’mon Essential, get out there before Monday….you know you want to
Diog,
Accepted.
My charity is Save The Dolphins Society, when you lose.
[William Bowe
Posted Sunday, February 26, 2012 at 9:05 pm | Permalink
Would anyone care to comment on Julia Gillard’s 26 per cent approval rating?]
Shes cactus
Gillard plunge and she’s in to $1.03
Rudd blown out to $10.
[Would anyone care to comment on Julia Gillard’s 26 per cent approval rating?]
yes, so what?
Just saw the Albo transcript for the first time. I disagree with him, but I respect him.
BB
So, to translate all that airy-fairy stuff you did at 41.
You’ve gone all blokey. Hot damn. Wanker Wudd’s not gunna give up without gettin a rub-down – and being assured of fake support.
Gotta protect the weepy arse from himself, not to mention his weepy arse friends.
Hey, Ruddsta, get your big fat cock down an excited notch or two
this is how we’ll do it.
We’ll tell everyone Julia’s a cocksucker.
She’s got red hair. Everyone’ll believe it.\
Immediate distraction.
That way, we’ve got your stoopid arse covered.
You know, you blokes need a good foot up the arse.
You gotta stop thinking about yourselves and start thinking about the nation.
That’s why we girls like Julia.
She’s not thinking about the root with the secretary tomorrow or next week.
She’s getting on with the job.
Doing it.
Instead of pretending to do it.
Sorry for my absence. I was on the phone to my mum.
She still doesn’t understand why Rudd was dumped in 2010.
Mod Lib
26%
Why does she bother?
Speaking of margin of error.. when Essential starts going 53.. 52.. 53.. 52
Then I’ll be happy.
[Would anyone care to comment on Julia Gillard’s 26 per cent approval rating?]
Meh. Let’s see what it is in a few months.
then 29, 28, and finally 27 garry which is as low as it will go!!
[35% aint nothing to crow about…and it was Rudd who lifted it not your princess Ms Gillard!]
glen, by 10:30am tomorrow, Kevin Rudd will be in the dustbin of history
William,
The only reasonable comment about Gillard’s approval rating is, what the hell do approval ratings mean anyhow..
Tell me that and we’ll be going somewhere.
[Would anyone care to comment on Julia Gillard’s 26 per cent approval rating?]
Unfortunately, it’s not very good. However, it should improve after the Rudd v. Gillard drama passes.
[Why does she bother?]
Abbott is reason enough!
[Would anyone care to comment on Julia Gillard’s 26 per cent approval rating?]
Yes – isn’t it interesting that there’s no disapproval rating given?
Glen,
Howie 18% – Did he bother?
[Gary Sparrow
Posted Sunday, February 26, 2012 at 9:06 pm | Permalink
Mod Lib
26%
Why does she bother?]
Shes got an 8% buffer!
LOL
PS: I assume you are making a reference to the Bulletin headline re JWH? “Mr 18%, why does he bother?”…no?
{ Gillard plunge and she’s in to $1.03
Rudd blown out to $10 ]
Diogenes your’ve been sacked as runner – that’s 4 hours old!
BK
Umm she’s behind Abbott though and she’s got the Libs into an election winning lead?
Finns
[glen, by 10:30am tomorrow, Kevin Rudd will be in the dustbin of history]
In 6 months Ms Gillard will end her career as PM as the most unpopular and ineffective PM since Billy McMahon.
[Would anyone care to comment on Julia Gillard’s 26 per cent approval rating?]
Taken days ago William. Things are moving too quickly. Too volatile at the moment to make any definitive conclusions.
Care to comment whether a week of Abbott bashing has done its job?
26% for Julia is a rouge 🙂
Yes well I should never try to guess a poll result ever again. Just think what may happen if Labor ever have a good week.
Clearly Labor are not holding up in the polls because the events of the past week have made people think more kindly of Gillard. Like Possum says, we’re very likely seeing support coming through here for Rudd.