I have had occasion on this site to mock those who like to predict what the results of looming opinion polls might be. GhostWhoVotes relates that tomorrow’s Newspoll offers an excellent case study on this count: the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead has narrowed since a fortnight ago from 55-45 to 53-47, with Labor’s primary vote up three to 35 per cent (their best result since March last year) and the Coalition’s down one to 45 per cent. However, the script has been followed with respect to Julia Gillard, whose approval rating has plunged six points to 26 per cent while her disapproval rating is up seven to 64 per cent. However, Tony Abbott too has taken a bit hit, down five points on approval to a new low of 31 per cent and up five on disapproval to 57 per cent. Preferred prime minister is little changed, with Abbott’s lead down from 40-37 to 38-36.
UPDATE: The poll also has Kevin Rudd leading Julia Gillard as preferred Labor leader 53 per cent to 28 per cent, which is little changed on where the provisional result published on Friday night had it (53 per cent to 30 per cent), or when Newspoll last posed the question a month ago (52 per cent to 30 per cent).
WB
26% should be electoral death. It should be leadership death. It is a measure of how truly bad Caucus believes Mr Rudd to be that 26% will not be enough to catapult him into the prime ministership tomorrow.
[GhostWhoVotes
Posted Sunday, February 26, 2012 at 9:04 pm | Permalink
Here is a video of Newspoll CEO Martin O’Shannessy discussing the results:]
You are a legend GWV.
Do you have anything on the disapproval and Rudd v Gillard?
And if not, any clues as to why they are holding onto those?
There is definitely more Newspoll to come.
They had provisional Rudd data on Friday night based on their pitiful 300 odd sample.
[Howie 18% – Did he bother?]
No he gave it up to Peacock and Hewson and then Downer.
Mod Lib
[Correction: we would be into the 5th year of a Costello government if he had stepped aside…..]
Nah .Because in the face of the GFC he would have done what he usually did.Retire to the hammock.An extra 200,000 unemployed would not be pretty.Not to mention “Dollar Sweeties” HR Nichols credentials where under those conditions he would have increased worker “flexibility”. The sort that looks like this. 🙁
[William Bowe
Posted Sunday, February 26, 2012 at 9:05 pm | Permalink
Would anyone care to comment on Julia Gillard’s 26 per cent approval rating?]
Just did at 82
I would agree with this Glen.
It doesn’t change anything about the fundamental decision being made tomorrow, but I would expect a significant drop in the ALP numbers after Julia Gillard is confirmed in the leadership role.
Julia Gillard isn’t popular.
Let’s see what happens over the next 6 months.
[Would anyone care to comment on Julia Gillard’s 26 per cent approval rating?]
Has she reached Brendan Nelson territory?
I find Abbott’s slump harder to explain. He usually does well when the spotlight’s elsewhere.
Ltep actually Glen will find support from me on no-disadvantage. This has the greatest effect on young, unskilled and part time/casual workers, demographics that i believeneed protection. Not overpriced underproductive unionised labour than wouldn’t be able to benefit from a more flexible wages system.
Australia needs to play to strengths. We have brilliant, innovative scientists, doctors and engineers. We need to make better and more sophisticated technologies, drugs, imaging and scanning technologies, nano-enabled technologies, better solar panels etc.
I don’t believe in a low wage productivity but in creativity and high sophistication, area where Asian countries (ex Japan) tend to do poorly.
Thus, the low end of the income bands need much higher protection than above median salaries (where most unionised labour sits).
Aside from this, Howard was a saint with boats policy compared with both sides of politicsnow, was a legend in international relations (ours with East Timor are still strained after the Gillard fiasco) and much of Australia (present PBers excepted) thought we were in pretty safe hands.
I’d take Howard and his team in a heartbeat over the deadbeats we have in gocernment now..
Squiggle
Bring out the Tarago.
[The thing is, Kezza, I was simply not in the mood to be political at the time. I just didn’t want to cause arguments and hassled later for it. Me not being true to myself would be agreeing with them, in which I didn’t. I just chose not to say anything because I didn’t want to]
So why put it on a political blog?
To tell us a few of your ignorant friends don’t like Julia?
[I find Abbott’s slump harder to explain. He usually does well when the spotlight’s elsewhere.]
Maybe because he’s a load of bullshit, anyway?
[Here is a video of Newspoll CEO Martin O’Shannessy discussing the results]
I thought O’Shannessay would look more like a leprechaun.
[I find Abbott’s slump harder to explain. He usually does well when the spotlight’s elsewhere.]
All week Gillard and Rudd have put the spotlight on Abbott.
William @ 75
She is clearly the barrier to the ALP doing much better in the polls.
Sooner or later the dimwits here and in caucus will realise this and caucus will take appropriate action.
BW
[26% should be electoral death. It should be leadership death. It is a measure of how truly bad Caucus believes Mr Rudd to be that 26% will not be enough to catapult him into the prime ministership tomorrow.]
You could add Abbott to that.
I had a big family dinner tonight. Lots of conservative people.
Abbott was not feeling the love. There was a lot of unhappiness with Rudd, Gillard and Abbott.
I can’t remember having such a sad bunch to choose from.
[I find Abbott’s slump harder to explain. He usually does well when the spotlight’s elsewhere.]
It’s easy William: no matter which side they support, both camps in Labor have been saying “Death to Abbott”. Seems like that message may have cut through.
Once Rudd urges his supporters to support Gillard, then watch her metrics go up.
[I find Abbott’s slump harder to explain. He usually does well when the spotlight’s elsewhere.]
or you dont want to explain
Yeah, ok. Why don’t we have her disapproval rating, when Abbott’s is there?
I assume they asked a lot of questions about Rudd too. Haven’t seen them yet either.
I’d be surprised if the people who are being questioned are unaware of the way the numbers are falling. There’s never been a suggestion that Rudd will win this vote.
Aside from that, well, there’s a latent ALP vote out there, currently residing with Rudd, which can still be won back to the ALP. The ways in which it can be won back are not confined to one option. That’s my take.
[So why put it on a political blog?
To tell us a few of your ignorant friends don’t like Julia?]
Nope, simply because I can. It’s to also show that Rudd’s support that has been all over the papers is quite popular.
[ William Bowe
Would anyone care to comment on Julia Gillard’s 26 per cent approval rating?]
It’s 30 percent higher than Mr John “Why Does This Man Bother” Howard once was ?
Gotta love the ALP!
They are about to dump someone with a huge lead over the Opposition leader to affirm support for someone with 26% approval!!!
The ALP: the gift that keeps on giving.
William
Julia is finished. Do you know where the disapproval figures are? Are they being held back till tomorrow morning? Surely not.
If you have ever met Julia (as I have at an ALP function here in QLD) she is a charming, very likeable, almost shy lady. The public don’t see that. I don’t know why.
The image she presents to the public, they don’t approve of.
Unfortunately for her, and Labor supporters, she is not a winner.
[I can’t remember having such a sad bunch to choose from.]
Diog, when 27 comes in, and William sends the meat tray, I’m going to enjoy sucking your sausage (sorry you couldn’t make it to Sydney for the barbie).
William when you consider that Abbott’s approval has also plunged I’d say the respondants are just saying they don’t like politicians.
Pressure on Julia will only become extreme if the TPP figures stay where they are or get worse towards the end of the year.
44% higher to be exact poroti!
shows
mum said to stop calling her and whinging
oh and stop playing silly buggers on blogs
William, did comment on Gillard’s 26.
Don’t i count as an ‘anyone’ :/
Maybe the undecideds increased because they wanted to say “Rudd” weren’t given that option?
Ms 26% 😮
LOL
William Bowe
[I find Abbott’s slump harder to explain. He usually does well when the spotlight’s elsewhere.]
Any theories ? Absence making the heart grow fonder has been quite a feature of Tony Abbott.
[Diog, when 27 comes in, and William sends the meat tray, I’m going to enjoy sucking your sausage ]
bushfire
I always had my doubts about u………..
[shows
mum said to stop calling her and whinging]
She called me! And it was kind of annoying because I had just microwaved a pizza.
I suggest we don’t have disapproval for Gillard because O’Shannessy didn’t mention it in that video, which was the sources for GWV’s figures.
[It’s 30 percent higher than Mr John “Why Does This Man Bother” Howard once was ?]
Howard was at 18 per cent on preferred prime minister, not personal approval.
Aguirre @ 120
Of course there is. But it will not return while Julia leads.
Mod Lib
[44% higher to be exact poroti!]
I blame my calculator ! 🙂 That and my Hockeynomics text book.
ShowsOn,
You should have put it in the oven!
[William Bowe
Posted Sunday, February 26, 2012 at 9:11 pm | Permalink
I find Abbott’s slump harder to explain. He usually does well when the spotlight’s elsewhere.]
Well off you go, take the numbers, and think about this:
Psephology is an inexact science.
[Gotta love the ALP!
They are about to dump someone with a huge lead over the Opposition leader to affirm support for someone with 26% approval!!!]
Yes, but I think EVENTUALLY, by about August they will come to their senses and elect Rudd as leader.
I think he will win 60 votes
[ Get him working for you, not against you. ]
BB – he is not an average joeblo – he is a hateful sociopath and his whole agenda is revenge and personal animosity towards Gilliard. There may not even be a phsychological classification in Australia for Rudd. And he’s certainly not doing it for the bucks.
How can future leaking be directly pointed at him if there are strategically directed leaks, just like last year. He is yet to be even arrested like the Portland Spy Ring.
[She called me!]
afterr u left 37 messages, I think she was a tad justified in ringing u and teeling u to stop whinging
Mr Squiggle
[ Would anyone care to comment on Julia Gillard’s 26 per cent approval rating?
Has she reached Brendan Nelson territory?]
She would kill for Nelson’s approval ratings.
Nelson’s started in the 60s and ended up in the 30s.
http://www.newspoll.com.au/cgi-bin/polling/display_poll_data.pl
[I blame my calculator ! That and my Hockeynomics text book.]
You wouldn’t believe this, but 30/44 is 70%!
You have your own little 70 black hole, its just a percentage not a billion
William Bowe
[Howard was at 18 per cent on preferred prime minister, not personal approval.]
Sorry, I use any excuse to bring up that classic Bulletin headline. Annoyed that I did not keep my copy of that issue.
[ShowsOn,
You should have put it in the oven!]
I’m too impatient / hungry for that.
Dio
I feel betrayed by the MSM. I feel betrayed by the political class. I feel betrayed by the business class.
Financially, I don’t have to worry. Health wise, ditto. My family are doing well, career-wise.
Environmentally, we are entering a mass extinction event. AGW-wise the train is chuffing up the tunnel in our direction.
The politics of dissatisfaction is roiling full bore.
Despite AGW, most of the time I am bemused. How is it that Australian politics is so damn painful for us tragics?
The net approval/dissaproval is the most important poll result…the PV is the lift from Rudd, and my are they going to be angry when he is kicked out again….oh and you think he’ll just sit quietly on the back bench?
how do you think the media will play this? Let me give you an example ” Mr Rudd, the PM just anounced that blah blah blah, would have made the same decision if YOU were PM?” then Rudd goes “let me say this on blah blah blah…week in week out”
[Apple Blossom
Posted Sunday, February 26, 2012 at 9:14 pm | Permalink
So why put it on a political blog?
To tell us a few of your ignorant friends don’t like Julia?
Nope, simply because I can. It’s to also show that Rudd’s support that has been all over the papers is quite popular.]
Actually all it does is tell us you were too afraid to raise the topic.
You were out with another couple.
How many couples are there in Perth
Or WA
So out of two couples in the whole of WA
One couple supported Rudd’
And one-half of another couple supported Rudd.
Sorry, that does not translate to 75% support for Rudd.
Even if the Prime Minister’s disapproval is high 50s, the combined approval of the PM and Mr Abbott is some way short of the -76 achieved by PM Keating and Hewson in Sep 1993 (as reported by Kevin Bonham last August).