I have had occasion on this site to mock those who like to predict what the results of looming opinion polls might be. GhostWhoVotes relates that tomorrow’s Newspoll offers an excellent case study on this count: the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead has narrowed since a fortnight ago from 55-45 to 53-47, with Labor’s primary vote up three to 35 per cent (their best result since March last year) and the Coalition’s down one to 45 per cent. However, the script has been followed with respect to Julia Gillard, whose approval rating has plunged six points to 26 per cent while her disapproval rating is up seven to 64 per cent. However, Tony Abbott too has taken a bit hit, down five points on approval to a new low of 31 per cent and up five on disapproval to 57 per cent. Preferred prime minister is little changed, with Abbott’s lead down from 40-37 to 38-36.
UPDATE: The poll also has Kevin Rudd leading Julia Gillard as preferred Labor leader 53 per cent to 28 per cent, which is little changed on where the provisional result published on Friday night had it (53 per cent to 30 per cent), or when Newspoll last posed the question a month ago (52 per cent to 30 per cent).
Simon Benson of the Daily Telegraph:
[Mr Rudd’s camp yesterday conceded the former leader was unlikely to get more than 35 votes … Ms Gillard’s number-crunchers yesterday were confident the PM would attract 70 of the 103 votes and claimed such an outcome would be “humiliating” for Mr Rudd.]
Courier-Mail:
[Mr Rudd’s backers concede there is no way he can win the ballot. They say he is likely to get between 30 and 35 votes out of the 103-member caucus. Ms Gillard’s backers say she will secure close to 70 votes, even though one of her supporters Michelle Rowland will be absent because she has just given birth.]
[I expect that within the Party it will be a case of peace through superior firepower after Monday, comrade.]
Not superior enough: a full third of caucus against, including big hitters like Albo Ferguson, and Bowen.
A reconciliation will have to happen. Too many against Gillard.
You get the picture.
Of course polls will include Rudd after tomorrow. It’s in the papers’ interest to create maximum mischief.
@lefty e/603,
While I like Albo, he is a politician, so I expect he’s doing for different reasons.
Yes, Gusface, I do like Albo.
[He gave us a few truths about Tefrrylon and his conduct and if you think Gillard is going to punish him for that (just to appease the bloke who has been religiously white-anting her for months), you are very much mistaken.]
Sorry, but Swan went far further and personally attacked Rudd in a way that trashed the Labor brand.
Most voters think that the first 12 – 18 months of the Rudd government was pretty good, and that he deserves some credit for getting us through the GFC so well.
It makes absolutely no sense for Swan to trash that legacy, and indirectly trash himself and all of the other ministers.
And where was this reconciliation lefty after Abbott beat Turnbull by ONE vote?
Didn’t happen. The caravan moves on.
[People could still be registering protest votes for Rudd 18 months from now.]
Well the viscous nature of team Gillard’s campaign against Rudd will have really solidified and angered many Rudd supporters, and created genuine supporters out of previously tentative Rudd supporters, and rusted off some previously soft Liberal voters.
Gillard and Crean and co really pissed off Rudd people, in the same way they did in 2010.
Wash rinse and repeat. If they keep this up Gillard will be up to 85% disapprove and Rudd PPM 80%
A lot of the old and now newly created Rudd supporters out in the public will now feel this is personal, and be looking for revenge on Gillard.
[It makes absolutely no sense for Swan to trash that legacy, and indirectly trash himself and all of the other ministers.]
He didn’t say it was always like that.
If Rudd wins tomorrow we will be going to the polls within two months
DavidWH @591 I agree, lets see more MSM concentration on :monkey:
[Of course polls will include Rudd after tomorrow. It’s in the papers’ interest to create maximum mischief.]
The papers won’t continue to run Rudd vs whoever polls after tomorrow as they will rightly be accused of pushing an agenda. The challenge has been made and hopefully defeated tomorrow. This has been a very public upheaval with both sides having their say.
Oh my God!!! I just saw the full Newspoll after watching “the fighter” (very good by the way, can see why Baile got the oscar) She is out of the park, over kaput, finished…there is no coming back from here….people are trading in their baseball bats for medievil maces. a 13 point hit.
This will get so ugly…
TP
[Wash rinse and repeat. If they keep this up Gillard will be up to 85% disapprove and Rudd PPM 80%]
An exaggeration of course, but if true in principle this is what your man has been doing – damaging the party for month after month.
Mick,
If Rudd wins, we would likely have a new election called this week.
TP what a piece of trite crap
[She is out of the park, over kaput, finished…there is no coming back from here….people are trading in their baseball bats for medievil maces. a 13 point hit.]
Hysterical. Take a Bex, as they say.
Labor would love Pyne to be the new opposition leader , he would not go down well with the Red neck/ tea party side of the Fiberals . But they don’t have much choice ? Turncoat = Utegate , Joe Hockey = $70 Billion black hole and accounting fraud That’s about the depth of contenders .
Personally I can’t see Rudd’s ego allowing him to sit quietly on the backbench for 18 months although the events of the last week have left him very few options. I still find it hard to believe he allowed this to happen when he was never in a position to win. Perhaps it’s part of some strategic plan to defeat Abbott that escapes me.
[ i suspect after the am thingy, jg will let him off the leash
i feel sorry for the fibs ]
Thanks, Gusface.
Abbott is in real trouble too.They will still hand over the reigns to him, but should they change to a moderate…kaboom
GG, if he wins, he go straight to yarralumbla
I don’t understand why people think the Coalition will change leaders. They have absolutely no need to do any such thing while Labor has a 2pp stuck around 46.
Rudd = Keating like it or not.
When Gillard disapproval reaches 70% Labor’s TPP retreats to 45/55 for month, they will not be able to overlook Rudd at the next leadership change as the backlash would make 45/55 or worse a reality at election.
Rudd will not be allowed by the MSM to sit quietly on the back bench. Every desicion she makes…every fark up (and there are a plenty) they will be interviewing him
Lost the battle and won the war he did! hm!
DavidWH
[Personally I can’t see Rudd’s ego allowing him to sit quietly on the backbench for 18 months although the events of the last week have left him very few options.]
Promises not to challenge again are empty. If the caucus shifts and you’ve got the numbers you’ll challenge. The promise not to is overwhelmed by the challenge itself and quickly forgotten.
centaur009: reins
ROTFLMAO Rudd isn’t even worthy to even shine the patent leather italian hand-made slippers of Paul Keating
How will Abbott pay his house off on a Back benchers salary ??
[ zoidlord
Posted Monday, February 27, 2012 at 12:35 am | Permalink
@lefty e/603,
While I like Albo, he is a politician, so I expect he’s doing for different reasons.]
Yes. He seems to feel that Teflon got something of a raw deal in 2010 and that supporting him now somehow ‘balances the books.’
Indeed, one wonders how many of Rudd’s present supporters are behind him for substantially similar reasons. Some assert that he’s garnered what support he has on the basis of an expectation that his popularity with the punters will boost the Labor vote. If this were so, one would expect those Labor MPs on the tightest margins to be heavily represented among his backers. The problem is however, that they’re not.
Most marginal seat holders seem to be backing Gillard.
Of course once Rudd is voted-down fair and square tomorrow with a third or less of caucus supporting him, I doubt Albo (at least) will support him any further in the event Rudd decides to continue the fight.
I’d expect those of his supporters currently behind him for similar reasons to also melt away after the ballot tomorrow.
He might think of himself as another Keating, but when a significant portion of your support is based on what is, essentially, a ‘sympathy vote’, you’re not looking too flash for any future challenges.
TP and centaur
Like your optimism but!!!
It will be interesting to see if the stuff dumped on Rudd has done him real damage out there in voter land. Not sure.
with happy happy joy joy ?
Someone at IASBet has a sense of humour:
[Great Britain 1.45
Switzerland 3.00
USA 4.50
New Zealand 13.00
Russia 21.00
China 21.00
Somalia 101.00 ]
😆
[ROTFLMAO Rudd isn’t even worthy to even shine the patent leather italian hand-made slippers of Paul Keating]
Yes, I thought Thomas must be up too late and needed to have a rest when I saw that one.
Yes Rudd is damaged daretotread..thanks for spell check Triton…and he hasn’t changed (rudd that is)
[And where was this reconciliation lefty after Abbott beat Turnbull by ONE vote?
Didn’t happen. The caravan moves on.]
Turnbull wasnt Prime Minister.
A rather interesting editorial in the Age today: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/has-labors-messiah-complex-finally-taught-it-a-tough-lesson-20120226-1twdo.html
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RQ_s6V1Kv6A
I absolutely love this…I know it’s from 2010 but we all need a laugh!!
There’s no question that 64% disapproval is perilously bad, under any objective analysis.
Not that there’s much of that going around.
Bit hard to “get the job done” from opposition, and/or other slogans.
There’ll be a later challenge, sure as night follows day. Question is who it’ll be.
Tottenham now up by 2 over the arse …nal.
Anyhow, think I’ll call it quits and let our resident Rudd supporters spend the rest of the the evening explaining-away to each other the hiding Teflon is going to cop tomorrow.
Night Bludgers.
I’ll be back for the ritual viewing of the corpse and obligatory post-mortem after the caucus meet.
559
Thornleigh Labor Man
Wise words from Lachlan Harris – Swan and others have set a dangerous precedent:
Labor voters who are Rudd supporters are outraged. Labor voters who are Rudd detractors probably believe this very public airing of grievances is well overdue.
But all Labor supporters, whether they love Rudd, or despise him, should be deeply concerned by this development because recent history shows us that once a new tactic is introduced into a leadership battle it is used over and over again]
Bollocks. Rudd is a special case. Running the country is nothing to trifle with. He has no legitimate claim whatsoever to be PM, and the party is right to make it completely clear that they will not contemplate entrusting him with so much power ever again. The reasons for this should be openly stated and repeated until every “working family” in Australia understands that KR belongs in the past.
[620
DavidWH
Personally I can’t see Rudd’s ego allowing him to sit quietly on the backbench for 18 months although the events of the last week have left him very few options. I still find it hard to believe he allowed this to happen when he was never in a position to win.]
Rudd has an unlimited capacity for self-aggrandisement – something matched only by the disdain with which he treats those who might thwart him.
The forces of evil are out tonight. Arse…nal equalise with a quick pair.
suck it up slackboy…go the Gunners
I really don’t know about the colour of JG’s jacket tomorrow. I am thinking either that georgous black one with the satin lapels or the fawn one.
Not white, that is for surrender, nor yellow.
Blue is fib colours
Orange – possibly but Jg has worn orange already a bit lately.
Green, well is the Greens
Red was my first pick and makes sense = Labor colour but a bit obvious a statement, maybe dark red.
Black – business like but traditionally for mourning
Pink – not in a pink fit.
Put my down for fawn or black,
Rudd’s tie, grey/silver and maroon stripes, probably wide stripes.
how do you end up supportin tottenscum anyway?
I think it’ll be a nice soothing light blue.
Sort of like the anti-suicide lights at Japanese train stations.
Someone asked earlier how I posted without any text. Basically I was posting using an I-phone with emoticons added to the keyboard and I put an icon at the beginning of the post and for some reason it posted a blank post.
[564
Paul_J
If Rudd wins tomorrow we will probably be going to an election later this year, maybe]
If Rudd were to win the ballot, the Government will probably lose its control of the House and then the G-G would invite Abbott to test his numbers. He could possibly become PM by the end of the week.