We now have a veritable polling bonanza courtesy of Galaxy, Nielsen and Newspoll. The Newspoll results however arise from The Australian having rushed into print with just the polling from one night of surveying, accounting for only 346 respondents. Nielsen was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 1200, Galaxy on Thursday and Friday from a sample of 1020.
Both Nielsen and Galaxy suggest the last week’s turmoil have had essentially no impact on voting intention. Nielsen has two-party preferred at 53-47, unchanged from its poll of February 2-4, with primary votes of 34 per cent for Labor (up one), 44 per cent for the Coalition (down one) and 12 per cent for the Greens (down one). Full results, including state breakdowns, are available courtesy of GhostWhoVotes. Galaxy has the Coalition two-party preferred lead at 54-46, unchanged on their previous poll of four weeks ago, from primary votes of 34 per cent for Labor (unchanged), 47 per cent for the Coalition (down one) and 12 per cent for the Greens (unchanged). Interestingly, a question on voting intention if Kevin Rudd were Labor leader produces far less dramatic results than when Nielsen conducted a similar exercise last September: the Coalition lead would narrow to 51-49, a three-point improvement in Labor’s position rather than the 10-point improvement in Nielsen.
Nielsen, Newspoll and Galaxy all produce similar results for preferred Labor leader: Nielsen has it at 58-34 in Rudd’s favour (it was 57-35 at the poll a fortnight ago), Galaxy has it at 52-26 (52-30 a month ago) and Newspoll has it at 53-30 (tables from Newspoll here). Breakdows by party support from Galaxy and Newspoll point to a dramatic swing in favour of Rudd among Labor supporters: in Galaxy’s case from 49-48 in Gillard’s favour a month ago to 53-39 in Rudd’s favour now, while Newspoll has Rudd’s lead at 58-41. That there is little shift among all voters presumably suggests a corresponding drop in support for Rudd among Coalition supporters. Newspoll has Gillard losing ground against Tony Abbott, who now leads her 43-34 compared with 40-37 a fortnight ago, and Rudd leading Abbott 48-40 – although the incomplete state of this poll means this should obviously be treated with caution (full results from it can be viewed here).
The Galaxy poll also finds that 57 per cent believe the independents should force an early election if Rudd becomes leader, but it is not clear how many would prefer that in any case. Full tables from Galaxy here.
Just review your *own* posts to see seething hatred on full display in most of what you write.
You refuse to move on after the vote tomorrow of course – because you are on the record as a liberal voter.
Something bilong you.
[And Mr Ferguson’s failed pursuit of the clean coal mirage also clearly warrants a further period of support. Come to think about it, like attracts like?]
Clean coal is a joke. The future is nuclear.
My prediction on the reshuffle? Minimal. Perhaps Mr Clare to FA would be a good signal to the youngsters. He has class to spare. Then another youngster to fill Mr Clare’s spot.
feeney
fret not – a lot of the pro Rudd froth & bubble is coming from posters who have already outted themselves as non Labor voters.
They just like to pretend, because it helps stir the pot.
Hey, I agree with something ShowsOn wrote. Not sure nuclear is necessarily a big part of the answer, but it does need to be at least in the options available as a transitionary technology if nothing else.
ShowsOn
[Bowen doesn’t WANT Immigration! He tried to get out of it, but Gillard wouldn’t let him. Leaving him in immigration is a form of punishment.]
Disloyalty deserves to be punished.
SO
Quite so. The Red Giant will ensure a nuclear future for all of us.
I’d like to see Andrew Leigh get a guernsey in a portfolio that could well use his economic credentials.
Anything in the polls for the next 2-3 weeks is useless.
The VoxPop ones done just over the weekend are not worth a tinker’s cuss – the Newspoll one, I gather, had some ludicrously low number of respondents.
The most depressing thing about all this is the way the Oz population treat the political stuff – based on how the media plays it – as some kind of My Kitchen Rules. The kind of three judges have their choice and then there are the people’s choices.
On the other hand, in the gatherings I have been at in the last few days – a funeral, a lunch and family gathering, apart from the words “soap opera” I don’t think most people give a monkey’s as it is just for spectator value.
What is it all coming to?
Also, although I am part of the crap here, the amount of crap over the last week has been of drowning proportions.
I admire those thoughtful souls who have hung in here to just keep the vampires at bay.
Now JG ($1.03)- KR ($10) for the Showdown. Amortise 3% interest for 16 hours ove12 months & no tax c/f bank interest and it is even still a brilliant investment!
The punters have spoken!
zoomster 3054
Well, I’m a fully paid up ALP member of one branch in the Griffith electorate of Kevin Rudd. I suppose you can understand it is one of the reasons, but not the overriding one, that I support him.
[I’d like to see Andrew Leigh get a guernsey in a portfolio that could well use his economic credentials.]
How about Treasurer? He couldn’t be worse than the hopeless joker who has the job now.
ShowsOn
Before you get on your high horse about Bowen
Who the fk leaked about his Nauru position?
Huh?
He deserves to be punished for that alone.
That way leads to (further) balkanization. Not a good strategy.
Why does R*dd remind me of Norma Desmond?
On damaging leaks and siloyalty – WTF was Arbib thinking when leaking like a sieve to the US Embassy about the moves on Rudd, well before much of caucus even knew about it?
Has anything quite as disgraceful ever been alleged of Team Rudd? No.
As for Tony’s plea to the Indies – LOL, mate, they probably would jump this week if YOU werent in charge of the Libs. Why not resign?? – it could result in a Liberal goverment by Thursday!
Dr John,
However, there is still a 1 in 33 chance you could lose the lot.
Son of foro
The staircase scene?
Jeez, one had to feel sorry for Pies on Insiders this morning. He wasn’t sure whom to spray with his usual toxic sludge, rudd or JULIA. Fortunately for Pies he’s got a bottomless pit of sludge so he was able to share it around. But rudd copped most in the end.
I think that rudd is fortunate the caucus is voting tomorrow and not later in the week. He’s becoming diminished day by day. Starting to cut a pitiful figure really.
ShowsOn
[Clean coal is a joke. The future is nuclear.]
Clean coal is indeed a joke. Nuclear is not the answer at the moment though. The answer will spread across a variety of technologies,solar,biofuel,geothermal,wind,wave etc. There may even be a breakthrough in thorium reactors or fusion.
[Disloyalty deserves to be punished. ]
Yes, Arbib should be expelled from the party for leaking to a foreign power.
[Has anything quite as disgraceful ever been alleged of Team Rudd? No.]
I would think doing deals with various interest groups to overturn ALP party policy ‘when I become PM’ trumps that.
[ShowsOn
Before you get on your high horse about Bowen]
Well bloody hell mate! You guys attack Rudd for not being consultative, but why didn’t Gillard consult with Rudd over the East Timor and Malaysian solutions? Surely the Foreign Affairs minister should’ve been gold, so he could contact the relevant foreign affairs ministries in other countries and give them a heads up?
kezza2 @ 3030
…’only Gillard can do (Abbott) over….’
And that’ll happen when?
Oh sure, any day now……..and still we wait for Julia to do Toxic over……and still we wait… and st……
[Jackol
Posted Sunday, February 26, 2012 at 6:38 pm | Permalink
Disloyalty deserves to be punished.
That way leads to (further) balkanization. Not a good strategy.]
So, you’re opinion is to reward disloyalty?
Nuh, Didn’t think so.
Is your argument along the lines of “keep your enemies closer?”
Well, that’s what I’m suggesting.
Keep Bowen in Immigration.
Peter Beattie has just flown into Canberra for the Leadership Showdown … interesting that he’s abandoning Queensland as well at a time like this.
Or, maybe, he’s working his own numbers ahead of a challenge in the seat of Griffith …
Can someone explain this to me.
If Gillard is so great, why are her poll numbers so bad?
How about Penny Wong into Foreign Affairs and Andrew Leigh into Finance?
[rosemour
Posted Sunday, February 26, 2012 at 6:43 pm | Permalink
kezza2 @ 3030
…’only Gillard can do (Abbott) over….’
And that’ll happen when?
Oh sure, any day now……..and still we wait for Julia to do Toxic over……and still we wait… and st……]
your dots make no sense
spit it out, if you want a conversation.
Feeney – If your able too, what was Rudd attitude toward Gillard and her government at branch meeting and whilst I would expect the local rand n file to back the local MP but what is the general mood
[Peter Beattie has just flown into Canberra for the Leadership Showdown … interesting that he’s abandoning Queensland as well at a time like this.]
WTF FOR!?
Surely he knows that it would be better for Labor in QLD if Rudd won? Even though Beattie seems to hate Rudd personally.
I wouldn’t shift Penny Wong, Danny. She is far too valuable where she is.
Comrades, we need to recruit John Goodman to the Labor front bench to stick it up Tony Abbott.
We are being let down by a lack of rhetoric.
Swannie may be a numerical freak, which is terriific, but up on his feet he repeats the phrase “Mr Speaker” far too many times.
Sit down, Wayne, and put a plug in it. There’s a good man.
We need someone with a loud, deep and fearsome voice. Jason Clare has just that type of voice. He can put the fear of God into the enemy, make no mistake. And the lad makes good sense. And he has a stout heart. And moreover he has the requisite prominent ears to satirise Tones.
Prominent ears and a loud voice is what is required in these times. It has worked for Tones and it can work for us.
This is no popularity contest. Let loose the dogs of war!
[ShowsOn
Posted Sunday, February 26, 2012 at 6:45 pm | Permalink
Can someone explain this to me.
If Gillard is so great, why are her poll numbers so bad?]
OOOOHHHHH, SIR, SIR (hands up), I KNOW, I KNOW:
ITS THE MEEJA
[How about Penny Wong into Foreign Affairs and Andrew Leigh into Finance?]
I think Swan would be better in Finance than as Treasurer.
Leigh will make an excellent treasurer.
….kezza2
….what do you mean…………?..
The polls are bad because the government has made several large controversial policies like placing a price on carbon and whilst at the same time the non mining sector economy is flat with serious concern about the job market and boarder economy
Danny Lewis
[Or, maybe, he’s working his own numbers ahead of a challenge in the seat of Griffith …]
A Beattie For Canberra campaign ? 🙂
G
I am down for 31. But I would love to see less than 30. IMHO, the undecideds now have a clear choice:
(1) support Mr Rudd to give him some hope, thereby invigorating an ongoing destabilization campaign as well as giving the MSM something to work with. I imagine that Mr Rudd would continue to use social media brilliantly to try to engineer a situation where he reluctantly accepts a plea from the Party to save furniture. He would also continue to manipulate the media, same old, same old.
(2) support Ms Gillard in an effort to put Mr Rudd to bed once and for all, thereby giving her the clearest mandate and some clear air.
Boerwar,
If you are about, you have been proved correct. Many of us here thought you were wrong and it is a huge disappointment to me given that I put so much trust in Rudd. Not sure how to express it but maybe the idea that having given trust and blamed MSM, to then find out that he was a rat is unforgivable.
Just as an aside, did you have any inside info or was it just your judgement?
Swan would be better playing full back for Footscray than being Treasurer.
Because no great people have ever had bad poll numbers before, huh?
“great” and “poll numbers” is almost a non sequitur
And, personally, I don’t classify Julia Gillard as “great” – I think she has done a good job in the circumstances, and is a country mile ahead of Kevin Rudd as the person who should be leader, but she is not the greatest ever by a long shot.
But you’ve distilled the whole Kevin Rudd argument down to that one sentence – good work ShowsOn.
Agree Boerwar – 30 is the magic number.
Of course, I hope he gets there.
Nah he is too small. I could not image Swan laying a tackle or spoiling a marking contest
Abbott is such a dickhead. Surely he has worked out by now that the indies were wise to him back in 2010. They knew if they made him PM he’d go straight to another election and target them for obliteration.
Poor Tone is being seriously deprived of oxygen while all this Labor crap is going on, no-one wants to talk to him. He’s desperately bobbing around in the background waving and yelling ‘Over here! Look at Me!’ and it just isn’t working. Maybe if he came up with a new policy to announce he might get some attention, but there’s not much chance of that happening. Never mind Tony, I’m sure they will be flocking to ask your opinion at about 10.30 tomorrow. Right after Rudd’s tearful ‘I thought they loved me’ speech Mark II.
GG – in real life maths doesn’t come into play like that. Might on a chalkboard
Also personally I could ‘save’ at the moment and now have JG & KR both winning me but have no intention to do that. Ajax did get beat at 1/40 on but I happen to know it was dead.
Just nice to have something that I am passionate about also make me a quid.
Is there a bigger rat in the house than Arbib, who leaked to a foreign power?
I mean, aside from the rats who took down a popular first term PM.
If Gillard is so great, why are her poll numbers so bad?
umm
change causes fear
yes the MSM are PARTLY to blame
other factors is the fact the electorate was cowed into afearful mob by howies constant fearmongering
it will take a gen to get over the scars he left on the national pysche