We now have a veritable polling bonanza courtesy of Galaxy, Nielsen and Newspoll. The Newspoll results however arise from The Australian having rushed into print with just the polling from one night of surveying, accounting for only 346 respondents. Nielsen was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 1200, Galaxy on Thursday and Friday from a sample of 1020.
Both Nielsen and Galaxy suggest the last week’s turmoil have had essentially no impact on voting intention. Nielsen has two-party preferred at 53-47, unchanged from its poll of February 2-4, with primary votes of 34 per cent for Labor (up one), 44 per cent for the Coalition (down one) and 12 per cent for the Greens (down one). Full results, including state breakdowns, are available courtesy of GhostWhoVotes. Galaxy has the Coalition two-party preferred lead at 54-46, unchanged on their previous poll of four weeks ago, from primary votes of 34 per cent for Labor (unchanged), 47 per cent for the Coalition (down one) and 12 per cent for the Greens (unchanged). Interestingly, a question on voting intention if Kevin Rudd were Labor leader produces far less dramatic results than when Nielsen conducted a similar exercise last September: the Coalition lead would narrow to 51-49, a three-point improvement in Labor’s position rather than the 10-point improvement in Nielsen.
Nielsen, Newspoll and Galaxy all produce similar results for preferred Labor leader: Nielsen has it at 58-34 in Rudd’s favour (it was 57-35 at the poll a fortnight ago), Galaxy has it at 52-26 (52-30 a month ago) and Newspoll has it at 53-30 (tables from Newspoll here). Breakdows by party support from Galaxy and Newspoll point to a dramatic swing in favour of Rudd among Labor supporters: in Galaxy’s case from 49-48 in Gillard’s favour a month ago to 53-39 in Rudd’s favour now, while Newspoll has Rudd’s lead at 58-41. That there is little shift among all voters presumably suggests a corresponding drop in support for Rudd among Coalition supporters. Newspoll has Gillard losing ground against Tony Abbott, who now leads her 43-34 compared with 40-37 a fortnight ago, and Rudd leading Abbott 48-40 – although the incomplete state of this poll means this should obviously be treated with caution (full results from it can be viewed here).
The Galaxy poll also finds that 57 per cent believe the independents should force an early election if Rudd becomes leader, but it is not clear how many would prefer that in any case. Full tables from Galaxy here.
[Swannie may be a numerical freak, which is terriific, but up on his feet he repeats the phrase “Mr Speaker” far too many times.
Sit down, Wayne, and put a plug in it. There’s a good man.]
To win the next election Labor needs to get some political mileage out of the way the economy is performing. It won’t do that with Swan as Treasurer.
Can you imagine Keating circa 1988 going up against Joe Hockey? Voters should have a clear idea that if Hockey becomes treasurer he we ruin the joint with his bizarre Hockeynomics ideas. But at the moment he is considered a credible alternative because Swan is so weak at selling a clear economic idea.
I’m not saying he is a bad administrator, but that is only half the game in politics.
You might be on to something there dedalus. The ALP has been suffering an ear deficit! Julia Gillard has been hiding her ears under that hair of hers when she should have been showing them off, and we know she has prominent ear lobes because the press made a big deal about it.
If Abbott was acting in the best interests of his party he’d resign.
Good chance Turnbull could form govt this week. Seriously.
Zoomster
The staircase scene.
[If Gillard is so great, why are her poll numbers so bad?]
Um, because people don’t like her?
They didn’t like Howard, either, but he was PM for 11 years.
The difference between the two is that Howard didn’t have anyone in his inner Cabinet leaking, destabilising and generally ratting on him at every opportunity.
He had the media on his side. They protected him and shored him up when necessary. In terms of Gillard, they have had it in for her, almost from Day 1.
Incidentally, just because the people want something, doesn’t make it right or rational, especially if they don’t have the benefit of all sides of the argument.
About 50% of the population believe we should reintroduce capital punishment. Does that suddenly make it right?
And given that 90+ % of the population are in favour of voluntary euthanasia, and 60+ % are in favour of same sex marriage, why haven’t these things already been legislated?
Would one of Rudd’s speech writers written a ballot loss speech before the (inevitable) event?
[ShowsOn
Posted Sunday, February 26, 2012 at 6:45 pm | Permalink
Can someone explain this to me.
If Gillard is so great, why are her poll numbers so bad?]
Twats like you.
Who like to take on board msm talking points.
Need I go further?
jackol 3102
Julia had the new short haircut on today at the footie. Ear lobes out and getting a sun tan.
Looked terrific, I must say.
Are we on to something?
Final Call: PM Gillard 77 Rudd 25
Our final count of the publicly declared support: PM Gillard 61 Rudd 19 with 22 Known Unknown. The question is how will the Unknowns break. Sportsbet is reporting the oadds of PM Gillard $1.11 Rudd $6.25. Based on that we took the conservative approach and say the Unknowns will be break 70:30 to PM Gillard’s favour.
Thus this will give PM Gillard additional 16 votes to 77 and Rudd 6 votes to 25. That is our final call: 77 to 25
http://afrankview.net/2012/02/a-quick-dirty-list-of-declared-supporters/
[If Gillard is so great, why are her poll numbers so bad?]
A ranga ?
Deliberately barren ?
Unmarried ?
An atheist ?
Lack of a penis ?
A closet socialist ?
Will be fascinating to see the reshuffle – Bowen obviously wants out on Immigration but I think he deserves a decent gig after what he has been through + in the interests of unity
Foreign Minister is a senior position so my pick would be Emerson or Burke.
Hopefully Ferguson says he wants out – i’d love to see Kate Ellis in tourism, perfect fit I think
wait I see I guess, plenty with potential on the way up though
the one question laurie oakes needed to ask krudd this morning was about the leaks….everyone was waiting and the silence was deafening….
Danny – I am not sure if the media was on Howard side, the fairfax and ABC were largely treated with contempt but the then government.
I agree with the rest of what you said about the difference between Howard and Gillard
[rosemour
Posted Sunday, February 26, 2012 at 6:48 pm | Permalink
….kezza2
….what do you mean…………?..]
Not another one! Have fun.
finns
u iz WronG
[Twats like you.
Who like to take on board msm talking points.
Need I go further?]
Now, now, no need to revert to name calling!
Finns,
77/25 is a massacre.
Poroti 3110
Bingo! You’ve hit it in one.
The misogynist factor.
[Well bloody hell mate! You guys attack Rudd for not being consultative, but why didn’t Gillard consult with Rudd over the East Timor and Malaysian solutions? Surely the Foreign Affairs minister should’ve been gold, so he could contact the relevant foreign affairs ministries in other countries and give them a heads up?]
Mate, you are hours behind on this one.
Someone involved in negotiations has already come out and said Rudd was involved in about 8 of the 11 meetings they have had on the issue. He was fully in support of the solution at those meetings.
More Rudd lies.
Putting new people in to Treasury/Finance would be a mistake.
Swannie is not the sharpest tool in the shed but Penny Wong is across the detail. To back them up the PS people are good – Parkinson and Henry as a backup and a RBA Board who are in tune with what the govt are doing.
Better to leave them alone for now and use other talent to plug holes elsewhere.
77/25 is bull butter especially considering these figures have come from Franka and Finns.
it aint going to be that big of a win.
[The Finnigans
Posted Sunday, February 26, 2012 at 6:57 pm | Permalink
Final Call: PM Gillard 77 Rudd 25
..
Thus this will give PM Gillard additional 16 votes to 77 and Rudd 6 votes to 25. That is our final call: 77 to 25]
You have made no allowance for not voting, say 8 give each side 4 and you have 21 for Rudd.
It’s quite clear this is not about Ruddstoration, but Ruddrubbing. I wonder if the press will give up on the restoration meme now.
Many people dislike Latham for a variety of reasons. However, his evaluation of Rudd seems to have a lot of anecdotes fairly similar to his more recent behavour. This is worth a read through.
http://prestoninstitute.wordpress.com/2012/02/23/lathamonrudd/
[Someone involved in negotiations ]
Oh crap, how could I be so mistaken to accepting the word of SOMEONE, over comments Rudd made that Gillard hasn’t refuted.
RNM1953
I knew about some of the Queensland stuff but was unsure what to make of the stories. I was still a strong supporter of Mr Rudd in the early days. I have always acknowledged his achievements during the GFC. There is no doubt at all in my mind that the Opposition would have cocked that up big time. I appreciated the apology, even though I thought he avoided the hard yards of compensation. He lost me completely when he abandoned climate change action. I no longer trusted anything he said. It was quite obvious from stuff that was on the public record that in the end he had lost managerial competence. I was shocked to learn, for example, that he had not spoken to some senior ministers for nearly a year. Thereafter, most of my posts on the topic relied on what I called textual analysis. I took the view that a former diplomat is a master wordsmith and that nothing was an accident. To me, the pattern was clear.
When considering the misogynist factor we need to remember that many of Jules biggest haters appears to be found amongst women.
Finns, 77/25 is a bit wishful. But possible. As is 65/35.
Numbers, numbers ..
But the $1.11 is money for jam.
The odds are really 1/100 ($1.01 for all you tab bettors)
The Finnigans
[Thus this will give PM Gillard additional 16 votes to 77 and Rudd 6 votes to 25. That is our final call: 77 to 25
http://afrankview.net/2012/02/a-quick-dirty-list-of-declared-supporters/ ]
Good to see the FB Red Herring has at last made it back to port and unloaded its catch.
Evening all, saw a tweet an hour ago that had Gillard at $1.01 Kev at $26 at Sportingbet.
It doesn’t really matter what the numbers are tomorrow. In six months time when Gillard resigns the numbers will drift to Rudd as backbenchers realise he is their best bet to help them retain their seats.
I am not saying Rudd will win the next leadership contest in a landslide, but I think it will be a comfortable margin, he will get about 60 votes.
[u iz WronG]
gussie, so what? that’s my call
Why doesn’t Franker post here anymore?
[Oh crap, how could I be so mistaken to accepting the word of SOMEONE, over comments Rudd made that Gillard hasn’t refuted.]
The old failure to deny trick.
[Lyne Lady
Posted Sunday, February 26, 2012 at 6:58 pm | Permalink
the one question laurie oakes needed to ask krudd this morning was about the leaks….everyone was waiting and the silence was deafening….]
We all know why, i.e. all of us know why – it’s a pity the general public isn’t informed.
But, like ShowsOn shows – they don’t want to be informed.
They want to hold onto their what they perceive to be their own ideas, little understanding how beholden to the msm they are for their notions.
No individual thought, no idea of chasing down primary sources.
Equally annoying was Cassidy. He wrote a piece on it, FGS.
Nothing. Nada. Even when one of the journos was outed as ABC’s Mark Simpkin.
(not to mention Phillip Hudson of OO)
You’d think they’d have the guts to talk about it.
But they’re happy to let the public think they’ve got all the answers.
They don’t have to be truthful to us.
As long as they’ve got their arses covered.
I was thinking about Albo supporting Kev today and it’s implications if Jooles wins again and concluded its probably a good thing for everyone in that he will probably insist that Kev backs off now. After his show of support for Rudd he has earnt that right. Possibly there is a few others in his camp who will see support for Rudd as duty done.
mexicanbeemer
[When considering the misogynist factor we need to remember that many of Jules biggest haters appears to be found amongst women.]
I imagine there would be alot of resentment amongst some women who were not able to escape the strictures of more traditional views on what woman should do. Not to mention there are many women who would agree with the fossils of the “Women Who Want to Be Women”.
3123
Yeah, I browsed through the index entries on Rudd in the Latham Diaries yesterday and noted exactly all those references.
Uncannily accurate assessment by Latham. I intend to read the complete diaries and reassess Latham. Truth can often hurt, which is why we are so often in denial.
TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans Reply Delete Favorite · Open
That’s my call, right or wrong? Que Sera Sera.
imagine how different things would be today if Fran Bailey had been able to vote and Abbott had lost the ballot instead of winning by a vote
unbelievable that people need to be present in this day and age to vote
[I’m not saying he is a bad administrator, but that is only half the game in politics.]
Correct re Swan. He just cannot communicate in an interesting and persuasive way. He cannot tell a story to influence the public. to have someone like this in treasury is big issue for the ALP and has held the govt back throughout it’s term. I have personally met swan and he is not the most expressive character.
[Now, now, no need to revert to name calling!]
Says the master of the art.
Diog, you are on $500 bet that PM Gillard will lead ALP to the next election in 2013.
Put your money where your tree is.
[We all know why, i.e. all of us know why – it’s a pity the general public isn’t informed.
But, like ShowsOn shows – they don’t want to be informed.]
Err, how do I show this?
Gillard is a good administrator who has achieved a heap of good policy achievements.
But that doesn’t matter because people don’t like her.
That was my point.
Julia Gillard is and has always been a political opportunist so tends to jettison positins when the tide changes. The 180 degree turns on asylum seeker policy and carbon pricing are well established examples. She negotiates very well and this is often overlooked by punters not conversant with the needs of pragmatic governance in a hung parliament.
She is not particularly eloquent, has barely a clue about foreign policy and is not much better on economics. She is not a gifted writer and not much better at policy development (medicare gold, citizen’s assembly, cash for clunkers…cringe,cringe,double cringe).
She does, however, consult with ministers and empower them. So given enough time, the deadbeat team she leads may be able to grow into the roles as you tend to do in government.
A return to Rudd would see less ministerial development, presumably with a less experienced team of deadbeats in the cabinet.
Neither leader will deliver government again for the ALP, so the more experience theycan get the better…
The Finnigans
[TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans Reply Delete Favorite · Open
That’s my call, right or wrong? Que Sera Sera]
For fans of “The Wisdom of Crowds” , well 78 denizens of the PB lounge.Red Herring central’s number cruncher’s result is v close to the average and now a mode.
Finns
Pls ignore the slurs on F,B,F&Co’s Creative Numerology Accounting Department. Our advice is: Follow the moony and get onto Gillard while the books are still open. Those dudded by the MSM into ponying up for Mr Rudd deserve their losses. The bookies are going to take a bath.
Oh, and Mr Hawker will be associated with yet another campaign loss.
[Paul_J
Posted Sunday, February 26, 2012 at 7:12 pm | Permalink
I was thinking about Albo supporting Kev today and it’s implications if Jooles wins again and concluded its probably a good thing for everyone in that he will probably insist that Kev backs off now. After his show of support for Rudd he has earnt that right. Possibly there is a few others in his camp who will see support for Rudd as duty done.]
Apart from his pre-Manstrual weeping, and the illogic that henceforth flowed, you’re probably right.
“Why are Julia’s poll numbers so bad…..?” is the question from one of the tory hacks here.
Well, like all complex issues, there is a simple answer…….as others have mentioned………she is not popular with a slab of voters.
Who are most of these voters? Yep, you got it……….the conservatives.
Why don’t they find Julia popular?
Ah, now there you have me, as I have just not got enough time to list the all the reasons.
Some are as straight forward that they can’t stand the fact that she is a woman.
And then we could go into her voice, her looks, her marriage status, her childlessness, her red hair, her choice of bags, shoes and hairstyle, the lack of a formal religious commitment, she is Victorian/South Australian, she did not go to a private school, and she was formerly from the left faction.
All of the above have been thrown at her at one point or another in the last 18 months.
Mind you, none of this stuff has actually much to do with the job she does, but there you are.
However, most of all, she has outsmarted and out played the bully-boy Abbott, has rung rings around the msm and she is PM.
And most of all, she has policies, which given enough time will be seen to ahead of there time and right for Australia.
The last makes her most unpopular of all ———again——mainly among the conservatives who know strength when they see it.
A sign of their frustration was one of the hacks here wanted to know when she was going to cry.
Not only doesn’t she seem to break down into tears as she should as a weak woman but nobody can remember her swearing publicly or calling her immediate political opponents the word that rhymes with anchors.
Okay to call her a “bitch”, “Bob Brown’s bitch” or even that “#$%ing bitch” in public, but when she dared call some rude journalist to account – as she did a few days ago – immediately the media come out and say “she has lost her cool.”
Believe me, with some of the (word that rhymes with anchors) she has to deal with, I would, in her shoes insert a garden gnome up and orifice sideways of theirs.
So there you have it – Labor current adrift to the tune of 5% – and Julia “has such bad numbers”.
However, let’s be open-eyed about this, she is competing against the worst opposition leaders in history and really, her numbers should be better.
Oh, but I forgot, there is Kevy as well!
Does anyone know who is doing the numbers for both sides?
[For fans of “The Wisdom of Crowds” , well 78 denizens of the PB lounge.Red Herring central’s number cruncher’s result is v close to the average and now a mode.]
He he he Poroti, the cult of the Red Herrings strikes again.