Nielsen: 53-47 to Coalition (among other things)

We now have a veritable polling bonanza courtesy of Galaxy, Nielsen and Newspoll. The Newspoll results however arise from The Australian having rushed into print with just the polling from one night of surveying, accounting for only 346 respondents. Nielsen was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 1200, Galaxy on Thursday and Friday from a sample of 1020.

Both Nielsen and Galaxy suggest the last week’s turmoil have had essentially no impact on voting intention. Nielsen has two-party preferred at 53-47, unchanged from its poll of February 2-4, with primary votes of 34 per cent for Labor (up one), 44 per cent for the Coalition (down one) and 12 per cent for the Greens (down one). Full results, including state breakdowns, are available courtesy of GhostWhoVotes. Galaxy has the Coalition two-party preferred lead at 54-46, unchanged on their previous poll of four weeks ago, from primary votes of 34 per cent for Labor (unchanged), 47 per cent for the Coalition (down one) and 12 per cent for the Greens (unchanged). Interestingly, a question on voting intention if Kevin Rudd were Labor leader produces far less dramatic results than when Nielsen conducted a similar exercise last September: the Coalition lead would narrow to 51-49, a three-point improvement in Labor’s position rather than the 10-point improvement in Nielsen.

Nielsen, Newspoll and Galaxy all produce similar results for preferred Labor leader: Nielsen has it at 58-34 in Rudd’s favour (it was 57-35 at the poll a fortnight ago), Galaxy has it at 52-26 (52-30 a month ago) and Newspoll has it at 53-30 (tables from Newspoll here). Breakdows by party support from Galaxy and Newspoll point to a dramatic swing in favour of Rudd among Labor supporters: in Galaxy’s case from 49-48 in Gillard’s favour a month ago to 53-39 in Rudd’s favour now, while Newspoll has Rudd’s lead at 58-41. That there is little shift among all voters presumably suggests a corresponding drop in support for Rudd among Coalition supporters. Newspoll has Gillard losing ground against Tony Abbott, who now leads her 43-34 compared with 40-37 a fortnight ago, and Rudd leading Abbott 48-40 – although the incomplete state of this poll means this should obviously be treated with caution (full results from it can be viewed here).

The Galaxy poll also finds that 57 per cent believe the independents should force an early election if Rudd becomes leader, but it is not clear how many would prefer that in any case. Full tables from Galaxy here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,344 comments on “Nielsen: 53-47 to Coalition (among other things)”

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  3. Morning Lyne Lady. Thanks for the links.
    Michelle Grattan is dismissive of anything good coming out of support for Julia. Her bitterness shines through.

  5. finns – before you ZIP – thanks for your tweets – will be busy today supporting pm – retweeting and emailing mps and senators…

  7. TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 ‏ @Thefinnigans Reply Delete Favorite · Open
    Kevin Rudd should do the right thing and not contest on Monday. He will earn my respect. #auspol #respill

  8. TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 ‏ @Thefinnigans Reply Delete Favorite · Open
    Please notice one is missing from the Gang of 4 – Malcolm Turnbull. He is the biggest threat to both Gillard & Abbott #auspol #respill

    Ok Zipping

  12. I have been without net for 2 years and I do not know what “MSM” means. “OO” seems to be The Austr**ian. Cannot find on line a useful glossary of PB abbreviations.

  15. BK @ 10,

    Mostly lurking. It’s quite pleasant here before the astroturf/spam arrives, but I know it won’t last. :-/

    dany @ 12,
    Yes, “OO” is short for Opposition Orifice. I’m still learning; for instance, who’s “Evan”?

  17. [Installing Rudd could trigger a collapse of minority government and expose Labor to an immediate election. More troubling, perhaps, it would signal that the parliamentary party has lost all sense of self-respect.]

    That last sentence resonates with me.

    From an article by Tim Soutphommasane a political philosopher at Monash University and worked on Labor’s national campaign in 2007.

    http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/rudds-quest-for-revenge-may-be-labors-undoing-20120224-1ttto.html#ixzz1nKusO2tO

  22. Joe O’Brien is a fool. Demanding – yes, demanding – that the media should be at the caucus meeting on Monday.
    Whose humiliation is he hoping to make public?

  23. Lovely morning…birds singing…sun out….Greentard off somewhere getting reprogrammed for the big weekend.
    If any one forgot GT is a perfect reminder of the Rudd years – he will pester everyone until they submit!

  24. Gary @ 21,
    Thanks! It was suggested on another thread that TLM (“evan”) might have been Brad Newman – the sole Rudd supporter at Brisbane airport. I don’t think so; Thornleigh seems a long way from Geebung, QLD (the P.O. Box listed in Brad’s “ruddfactor.com” domain registration.)

  25. Well, here you all are
    wondered why all was quiet on the western front

    reposting from Galaxy thread:

    Not a bad article by Tim Soutphommasane. And I agree with this

    But asking who is best placed to defeat Abbott is the wrong question.

    It sure bluddy is but not for the same reason. Is it really possible that the Coalition will keep Abbott as its leader going into the 2013 election? I don’t think so.

    Anyway, Soutphommasane’s good article comes to an end right there – his reason is that Rudd will destroy the minority govt (obviously a distinct possibility) but then he overreaches with the absurd claim that “Labor simply may not recover from its civil war for a generation.”

    In our more educated, fast-moving, disposable, 24/7 news/life – people can’t be stuffed hanging onto blood feuds for more than a few hours/days/years let alone a generation.

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/rudds-quest-for-revenge-may-be-labors-undoing-20120224-1ttto.html#ixzz1nKf8hHrM

  26. William Neilsen is unchanged since last time but according to Ghost WV the figures for NSW and Vic have reversed significantly since the poll of a few weeks ago.They look erroneous.
    Overall the polls all look OK for the Government except in QLD which looks terminal now. Wayne Swan looks certain to lose Lilley no matter what in 2013 so it won’t matter to him who is leader by then.

  27. I can’t reconcile Rudd’s churchgoing persona (apparently he’s been a moral control freak since Uni days) with his desire for revenge. Just can’t fathom it.

  28. So the media “knew along” that Kev’s governing style was dysfunctional. They were being backgrounded by him that he was going to challenge. (Presumably this was the source of all the “election any minute now” forecasts that didn’t come off.)
    Would it have helped Julia if they had reported that Kev was an evil bunny?

    But this doesn’t quite explain their tolerance of Abbott, does it, unless you add in the RW media.

  33. The last part of the Lateline interview. david Marr

    [EMMA ALBERICI: A quick last word David Marr.

    DAVID MARR: I don’t think we need to be answering that question. His chances of winning on Monday are extraordinarily slim. He’ll be on the backbench again and we’ll once again see that amazing image that we saw the morning that he was sacked, of that grim face on the very back row of Parliament contemplating his future.

    EMMA ALBERICI: Could all this be again just an attempt to destabilise the party?

    DAVID MARR: Well, no. It’s about his ambition to be leading that party and this country again. It’s not about sabotage, but it is about a man who is willing to do unbelievable damage to his Party in order to try to get back there. It’s about Kevin.]

  34. Anglicans are obsessed with property and wealth and this is T.Rein’s religion. Kevie adopted her religion as if he would otherwise be guilty of not being galant but I think he is still at heart a Catholic. “Vengeance is mine alone sayest the Lord” would not have any inhibiting effect on the self styled Messiah.
    They went to Uni at Canberra together perhaps at the same time he was L. Oakes house keeper.

  36. victoria,

    Yes.

    Space Kidette ‏ @SpaceKidette

    Marr and Farr on why Rudd’s chances are slim: abc.net.au/lateline/conte… Thanks victoria at PollBludger. #auspol #respill #kevenge

  37. [So the media “knew all along” that Kev’s governing style was dysfunctional…] but said nothing about any of it, so busy were they in sticking the boot into the illegitimate interloper and her funny earlobes.

    What a bunch of wannabe players. Disgraceful conduct.

    Whatever happened to reporting the facts?

  38. on the previous thread there was a sweepstakes running over howm many votes Mr Rudd will get in the spill.
    put me down for 25 thanks.
    Can I also point out that suggestions that Mr Rudd was responsible for those damaging election leaks are very concernoing for me

  39. [Marr and Farr on why Rudd’s chances are slim: abc.net.au/lateline/conte… Thanks victoria at PollBludger. #auspol #respill #kevenge]

    And didn’t Farr get antsy when he was asked if his outfit had been on the receiving end of Rudd’s Special Briefings?

    He definitely didn’t want to go there.

  40. [Anglicans are obsessed with property and wealth and this is T.Rein’s religion.]

    That is a prejudiced statement that I don’t agree with. Look at Hillsong.

  41. Judging by the news out today panning Rudd. I’d say the journo’s have found a way of slating Kevin for publicly calling on their ethics to maintain his secrets, without actually breaching their ethics.

  42. Steady-as-she-goes seems an unexpectedly good result for Ms Gillard, though Rudd’s “people power” appeal looks to have resonated with ALP supporters. Perhaps the corresponding drop in his support from LNP voters reflects their fear that Rudd would perform better against Abbott than would Gillard?

  45. kevin was prepared to slag the PM to everyone in low and high places, and brief journos accordingly. He then calls into question the matter of trust people have with the PM.

    I am being serious when I say, he needs medical help. A breakdown is on the cards

  46. Last night’s Lateline was the only time I can think of where a one-sided setup suited our side.

    A hatchet job was conducted on Rudd. Every politician in the country would have been watching.

    He is now history. The last few waverers will abandon him.

    Gillard has slain the dragon.

    The polls taken just now have actually slightly firmed for labor.

    Come Monday, she should immediately turn the blowtorch on Abbott. Forget policy for a week. Make it personal.

    On to victory in 2013.

  47. This would apply to Abbott as well, I should think.

    [“His most common put-down of officials and his own policy wonks was ‘That’s a fine idea, but how do I explain it on Today Tonight?’.]

  48. [Anglicans are obsessed with property and wealth and this is T.Rein’s religion.]

    The fixation by some here with getting stuck into Rudd’s wife is starting to become a bit tiresome.

    How about we leave her out of it people?

    She ‘stood by her man’. So what? What did anyone reasonably expect her to do? And since when is loyalty such a sin? (If Rudd had shown Gillard some, maybe he wouldn’t be as hated by most in the Party as he is now)

    It’s her man that’s the problem and deserving of condemnation for his truly crappy conduct, not her.

  49. Sorry from last night i fell asleep. Howard was the only one to lose when the polls were is the country headed in the right direction.
    “an eye for an eye and we all go blind” is the religion being followed.
    I think the majority of the cauacus thinks their toast either way so why serve under Kevin for the next 18 months.

  50. Smithe

    I agree. Ms Rein is sticking by her man as she should. But she really needs to focus her attention where he needs it. He is a walking time bomb. The last thing he should be doing is contesting for the leadership of a party.

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