Nielsen: 53-47 to Coalition (among other things)

We now have a veritable polling bonanza courtesy of Galaxy, Nielsen and Newspoll. The Newspoll results however arise from The Australian having rushed into print with just the polling from one night of surveying, accounting for only 346 respondents. Nielsen was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 1200, Galaxy on Thursday and Friday from a sample of 1020.

Both Nielsen and Galaxy suggest the last week’s turmoil have had essentially no impact on voting intention. Nielsen has two-party preferred at 53-47, unchanged from its poll of February 2-4, with primary votes of 34 per cent for Labor (up one), 44 per cent for the Coalition (down one) and 12 per cent for the Greens (down one). Full results, including state breakdowns, are available courtesy of GhostWhoVotes. Galaxy has the Coalition two-party preferred lead at 54-46, unchanged on their previous poll of four weeks ago, from primary votes of 34 per cent for Labor (unchanged), 47 per cent for the Coalition (down one) and 12 per cent for the Greens (unchanged). Interestingly, a question on voting intention if Kevin Rudd were Labor leader produces far less dramatic results than when Nielsen conducted a similar exercise last September: the Coalition lead would narrow to 51-49, a three-point improvement in Labor’s position rather than the 10-point improvement in Nielsen.

Nielsen, Newspoll and Galaxy all produce similar results for preferred Labor leader: Nielsen has it at 58-34 in Rudd’s favour (it was 57-35 at the poll a fortnight ago), Galaxy has it at 52-26 (52-30 a month ago) and Newspoll has it at 53-30 (tables from Newspoll here). Breakdows by party support from Galaxy and Newspoll point to a dramatic swing in favour of Rudd among Labor supporters: in Galaxy’s case from 49-48 in Gillard’s favour a month ago to 53-39 in Rudd’s favour now, while Newspoll has Rudd’s lead at 58-41. That there is little shift among all voters presumably suggests a corresponding drop in support for Rudd among Coalition supporters. Newspoll has Gillard losing ground against Tony Abbott, who now leads her 43-34 compared with 40-37 a fortnight ago, and Rudd leading Abbott 48-40 – although the incomplete state of this poll means this should obviously be treated with caution (full results from it can be viewed here).

The Galaxy poll also finds that 57 per cent believe the independents should force an early election if Rudd becomes leader, but it is not clear how many would prefer that in any case. Full tables from Galaxy here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,344 comments on “Nielsen: 53-47 to Coalition (among other things)”

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  2. [If Abbott was acting in the best interests of his party he’d resign.

    Good chance Turnbull could form govt this week. Seriously.]

    Sounding more and more like tssk, lefty e.

  3. Paul_J totally agree that Albo now calls the tune for Kevin. If he leaks again he wll have to deal with Albo and so will Carr, Ferguson, McClelland and Bowen.

    McClelland has just looked very contrite on ABC News and sort of hoping for a Cabinet possie.

  4. [Pls ignore the slurs on F,B,F&Co’s Creative Numerology Accounting Department. Our advice is: Follow the moony and get onto Gillard while the books are still open. Those dudded by the MSM into ponying up for Mr Rudd deserve their losses. The bookies are going to take a bath.]

    BW, we told them, we tell them and we will keep on telling them that we are better than the #MSMhacks in making things up.

    If they dont like 77 to 25, we have others.

  5. [When considering the misogynist factor we need to remember that many of Jules biggest haters appears to be found amongst women.]

    Um, no. I think you’ll find that the Gillard haters are still 70% + men. Some women might be *disappointed* in her, but hatred is a different thing.

    The true Gillard hatred exists amongst men who believe there are only 2 types of women: those you want to f*ck and those you want to kill.

  6. [Who are most of these voters? Yep, you got it……….the conservatives.]
    What gives you the impression most voters are conservatives?

  7. poroti – I have been surprised by the number of progressive professional women that spew venom at the P.M

    They generally don’t like the government’s performance

  8. Poroti 3136 & Mexican Beamer

    Some women behaving badly towards Julia fits very well with the misogynist idea. Some women are dominated by their male counterparts – it’s sad but it’s true, and no reflection on them. It is just a fact of gender politics.

    They would be reflecting, for example, their partners’ or their fathers’ attitudes, unconsciously or not.

    This is a serious problem with the world.

    Without banging on about it, Julia being defeated on the basis of a 3% misogynist bias in the electorate (which I believe is a plausible assessment) will make it a lot harder for women to get to the top in the future – and that goes for both sides of politics.

    You get what you wish for. Sophie Mirabella should dwell on this when she next thinks of calling Kate Ellis the weather girl.

  9. Glen @ 3121

    I reckon 77/25 (rounding off) is closer than the 58/45 you predicted (why isnt that prediction noted?).

    Bullbutter indeed.

  13. [ the one question laurie oakes needed to ask krudd this morning was about the leaks….everyone was waiting and the silence was deafening….]

    Lady L that was never going to happen as Rudd to Oakes were the leaker & ee
    The interview was always going to be soft for that reason and also a little payment thrown in for favors. Oakes has virtually nothing to hang his hat on in recent years.

  15. What has happened to Bruce Hawker? All these years watching him on Sky every week he seemed reasonably sound, defending Labor in the way you’d expect
    and not saying anything nutty, but now he says that for any member not to vote for Rudd tomorrow is “unconscionable”. Is there a word for extreme hyperbole? This follows his advice to Gillard not to even contest the leadership. In the space of a few days he’s turned himself from a respected, sought-after election campaign adviser into a pathetic joke on the losing side and alienated the rest of the party.

  16. From watching the interviews this evening on ABC TV News, it seems everyone’s had their dummy-spit, cleared the air and are prepared to give it their best shot.

    Defeat was virtually conceded tonight: Gillard will be returned as PM with a substantial majority (I am personally hoping for Gillard 75, Rudd 27 so that I can win the meat tray on offer from William… thanks Bill, I knew you were a good’un) and will probably, once things have settled down, increase her status as PM appreciably.

    She will really be the PM, no ifs or buts, after tomorrow morning. Elected with a clear majority, a very handy one probably. Even Rudd has said he’ll be fully supportive when it’s all over. He used the word “unequivocal”. That’s pretty hard to weasel word your way out of.

    The one thing they all agree on is that the Coalition is the enemy. That is a very good sign. A strategic portfolio for Rudd, one that uses his talents for spruiking the case for the best, would be in order.

    Abbott’s call for the Independents to propose a motion of No Confidence was pathetic. This whole saga never included him, and it still doesn’t. A united Labor, with the runs on the board that it has, will be formidable. Better get some policies together, Tony, quick. No more lazy back door, bathroom window shots at the top job for you. It’s all hard work from here, and you’ll need to be able to do more than pedal a bike to make any progress.

  17. [ Lyne Lady
    Posted Sunday, February 26, 2012 at 6:58 pm | Permalink
    the one question laurie oakes needed to ask krudd this morning was about the leaks….everyone was waiting and the silence was deafening…. ]

    He didn’t need to ask. He already knew the answer.

  18. TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 ‏ @Thefinnigans Reply Delete Favorite · Open
    @AlboMP Albo, after PM Gillard wins tomorrow. It is your responsibility to ensure Rudd dosnt whiteant PM again. We counting on you #auspol

  19. abc kicking of coverage at 5am tomorrow. 5 hours of what. what new information will be revealed prior to the vote. The MSM just love this stuff and would happy for it to happen twice a year or more just to keep things exciting.

  20. william bowe 3162

    Danny wasn’t being unhinged. Not one bit. Many guys think like that.

    Jimmy McGovern writes those sort of characters very well (current ABC series Accused). But the characters are believable because we know they’re true.

    Those guys with women issues vote. It’s a big problemo.

  21. Comments about Gillard’s gender is nonsense in the light of solid polling just prior to the election. The support for her has since declined but her gender, as far as we are aware, remains firmly unchanged. No she has, like Turbull did and Keating didn’t: very poor political awareness at crucial moments.

    Going on four corners was stupid, yielding to Tony Abbott’svtown hall debates was suicidal for an incumbent… Lying to voters so often and so blatantly is stupid..anything Howard has said in contrast pales next to this..

    Gender excuse? I think not. I think she’s been judged very fairly on her merits ( or lack thereof)

  22. It ain’t rocket science.
    Out in Punterville a whole lot of not very well informed people think that come July they’re going to be paying a carbon tax.
    Their bills, invoices, and receipts will show a CT (carbon tax) amount under the GST amount.
    Seriously, these people exist. Lots of them.
    They don’t like Gillard or the ALP for that reason alone.

    We have to be patient.

  23. [The question is how will the Unknowns break. Sportsbet is reporting the oadds of PM Gillard $1.11 Rudd $6.25. Based on that we took the conservative approach and say the Unknowns will be break 70:30 to PM Gillard’s favour]

    I’m not sure this reasoning really works.

  24. [Danny Lewis
    Posted Sunday, February 26, 2012 at 7:22 pm | Permalink
    When considering the misogynist factor we need to remember that many of Jules biggest haters appears to be found amongst women.

    Um, no. I think you’ll find that the Gillard haters are still 70% + men. Some women might be *disappointed* in her, but hatred is a different thing.

    The true Gillard hatred exists amongst men who believe there are only 2 types of women: those you want to f*ck and those you want to kill.]

    Yeah, what is it, slaves in the kitchen, whores in bed?

    You just have to look at the blokes who want to forgive Albo’s weeping.
    Contrast with JG having a go at not weeping, and weeping.

    If don’t weep, wooden, if weeping, playing the female card.

    They have no time for women if they weep, but blokes are forgiven every time.
    Cos it really, really matters.

    The cricketers, FGS, are forgiven, if they lose the captaincy.
    It just means so bloody much, they have to show emotion.
    (Isn’t that what you c*nts want? Blokes who show emotion??)

    Then we have Albo weeping.
    Stroke of genius. He really means it. Fk the logic. He really means it.

    You guys really have to do something about your ability to “reason”.

  29. dedalus
    [Without banging on about it, Julia being defeated on the basis of a 3% misogynist bias in the electorate (which I believe is a plausible assessment) will make it a lot harder for women to get to the top in the future – and that goes for both sides of politics.]
    There would be no shortage of religious nutters who truly believe that although to be “cherished” a woman should be subservient to her husband. Her place being in the home. The clever Germans have a phrase for it kinder kirche küche.
    I have been quite amazed to see the number of people quite happy to be filmed or photographed and have their opinion published that they feel “uncomfortable” about having a woman in charge.

  30. [Their bills, invoices, and receipts will show a CT (carbon tax) amount under the GST amount.]

    The Newman LNP have a policy to introduce legislation requiring power companies to include the carbon tax component of the bill.

  31. I don’t think you guys believed me a few months ago when I told you that I was 100% on the money that Rudd would never be leader in this term. I was told the reason why after the conference and it has worked out exactly as said. He had a snowflakes chance in hell. I think I’ve been over generous in giving him 33 votes on poroti’s list.

    The shots shown on ABC News from the Oakes program showed he played it wrong.

  32. BB

    You would give Mr Rudd a portfolio if you thought he was 100% sane. You would try to stitch up a deal with him if you thought he was 100% sane.

    I guess we’ll know this time tomorrow night.

    My guess is that absolutely nothing would stop Mr Rudd from trying to regain the número uno spot.

  33. Danny is talking about bitter men that are usually bitter with the world full stop although it is human nature to check a women out just as women check men out.

    But we should not forget that not all men hate women and bitterness is not a male only emotion

  35. Don’t tell me when i can post ? 5.38 , 5.39 , 5.39 , 5.40 , 5.42 Dr. John at 2c a post , that’s way to much .

    I challenge you to a duel S/on Pistols at 200 mts.

  36. Putting Danny Lewis’ phrase through the genteel translator it comes out as the old Freudian “The Madonna or a Whore Complex”

  38. People claiming her gender is the reason for why she is disliked have collective amnesia about all her failures as PM and are seeking an excuse for her failures.

  39. [William Bowe
    Posted Sunday, February 26, 2012 at 7:24 pm | Permalink
    That sounded just a teensy bit unhinged, Danny.]
    In comes the big gun.
    Oooh, “teensy bit ” — translation, “not trying to offend a silly female here”
    “unhinged” — translation, “you’ve lost your ability to reason”

    To make sure testosterone-fired weeping is OKAY.

    It’s just female weeping that’s indicative of weakness. Yep, righto.

    And that’s what Gillard’s been up against since Day 1.

  40. [ A strategic portfolio for Rudd, one that uses his talents for spruiking the case for the best, would be in order. }
    Bushfire Bill – you are surely taking the piss here!

  42. ltep,

    My gas and electricity bills already show the tonnes of greenhouse gases associated with that bill. Multiplying it by $23 is no big deal.

    I’ve already done the analysis of cost/benefit over the last year or so and included the compensation. We are well in front.

    I’m with Origin.

  45. Sorry, I should have explained further: I was taking issue with the concept of “hatred”.

    Many people – men and women – are disappointed in the PM, the government and their lot in life.

    True hatred is a different concept and a look inside the doors of any prison will show you what true hatred is. Mind you, some of the Labor front bench is giving them a good run for their money at the moment …

  46. Gary Sparrow
    [People claiming her gender is the reason for why she is disliked have collective amnesia about all her failures as PM and are seeking an excuse for her failures.]
    Nobody is claiming that is the only reason.However it is lead in the saddle bags. There have been more than enough “deliberately barren” comments to tell you it is a factor. She has pissed me off a few time. Taking any notice of the NY education thing was one. Every survey on education shows all they could teach us was the optimun armed guard to student ratio and where to put the metal detectors. The “Real Julia” was just dumb”. Anyway she still remains the best option to continue the good work.

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