Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition

Despite having mostly come too early for the weekend’s excitement, the weekly Essential Research poll has moved away a point from the 54-46 stasis in which it had been locked since December 12, with the Coalition lead now at 55-45. Since Essential is a two-week rolling average, so that only half the poll was conducted over the previous week, this shift is more likely to be meaningful than it would from another pollster, although it’s probably still within the margin of error. Labor is down a point on the primary vote to 33 per cent with the Coalition up one to 48 per cent and the Greens up one to 11 per cent.

Despite the voting intention figures, a series of questions on substantive points of policy shows support for the government’s positions: 53 per cent support means testing the private health insurance rebate against 33 per cent opposed; 56 per cent support the National Broadband Network against 25 per cent opposed, respectively up two and down three since the question was last posed last April; and support for the mining tax is up four points since November to 55 per cent with opposition down five to 28 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,569 comments on “Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  1. [ER was reset over Xmas and had a one week sample initially then the usual two weekly average. They have all been 54-46 so this one has to have been 56-44.]

    Dio,

    Thanks for the info about the reset (I just decided in what part of the MOE sandpit I would play today).

  2. [o what extent do you think (given the MSM fascination with leadership tussles and the obvious points the Oppos can make) maintaining this status quo will be a drag on Labor’s vote? A lot, a little? If a lot, what is likely to happen in say November this year assuming the status quo?]

    The of the past week have paradoxically been very bad for Gillard and Labor’s polling. Cant see that she wont take a hit on this, it has been a bad time and really because of her awful 4corners performance which really got the ball rolling.

    I would expect that over the next few polls her and Labor’s position will begin to drift down.

    Curiously the leaked video of Rudd just helped him. And now because of the media the public will think this is now all about a Rudd – Gillard battle and that maybe they should start lining up behind their favourite.

    In other words Gillard is going to be more toast than she is now.

  3. http://afr.com/p/national/vast_ambition_massive_headache_for_2yErFRXT4IeVnYCoKr44tK

    [Vast ambition a massive headache for Labor
    PUBLISHED: 0 HOUR 58 MINUTE AGO | UPDATE: 0 HOUR 57 MINUTE AGO

    LAURA TINGLE Political editor
    Let’s put politics aside for a moment and consider the vast aspiration of what David Gonski and his panel have laid out for Australia’s education future.

    It is a report that goes to the heart of our productivity debate. To the heart of increasing our educational asset base.

    The recommendations of the Review of Funding for Schooling go so much further than some debate about rich schools losing money or even about the party political positions that will inevitably be taken.]

  5. Wilkie on his meeting with Rudd

    [
    Independent MP Andrew Wilkie has moved to clarify details of a discussion he held with Kevin Rudd in November 2011, saying the foreign minister did not raise the leadership issue.
    ]

    …

    [
    “Mr Rudd and I discussed the leadership in generalities only.

    “At no stage did Mr Rudd ask for my support on the floor of the parliament or did I offer my support.”

    Mr Wilkie said at no stage in the conversation did Mr Rudd criticise Ms Gillard.
    ]

    http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/wilkie-says-rudd-didnt-raise-leadership-20120220-1tit0.html

  6. TP

    [Frankly if people here were genuine Labor supporters wanting the best chance of wining the next election then they would know a leadership change is a must, and earlier the better, and that the candidate most likely to succeed is Rudd.]

    I am of the opinion that Rudd’s popularity in the electorate is soft and somewhat illusory. If there is a bounce, I don’t think it would last very long.

    Rudd is obviously very smart; seems a good campaigner and certainly had stratospheric approvals in his first 2 years. But when the going got tough after Abbott was elected and Copenhagen didn’t work out, he floundered. I am not sure he is the right person just now to guide the ALP in a hung parliament.

  7. [As they say, history repeats. First as tragedy and then as farce.]

    GG,

    At the moment all the farce is in the media. To avoid the farce spreading which would then lead to the tragedy of the Government refuting its good (imo) policies, it must hold firm.

  8. If you were Rudd and you lost the caucus vote(and your position in cabinet), why on earth would you want to languish on the backbench for the next 18 months or so?
    If I was him in that position, I’d pull the plug entirely, let Gillard fight a by-election in Griffith, and not assist her in any way.
    Or he could become an Independent, and force Gillard to negotiate with him to keep her government in power.

    Going by the number of similar comments here this morning, it is clear that not many people took the time to listen to the Crean interview on ABC this morning even after it was kindly linked on PB.

    Crean made it very clear that he thought those scenarios were totally illogical and would not eventuate whatsoever!

    Also was surprised to hear him say he was totally and utterly against the Rudd coup in 2010.

    Easy to see why in retrospect! 😉

  9. [I am of the opinion that Rudd’s popularity in the electorate is soft and somewhat illusory. If there is a bounce, I don’t think it would last very long.
    Rudd is obviously very smart; seems a good campaigner and certainly had stratospheric approvals in his first 2 years. But when the going got tough after Abbott was elected and Copenhagen didn’t work out, he floundered. I am not sure he is the right person just now to guide the ALP in a hung parliament.]
    I agree.

  12. http://www.crikey.com.au/2012/02/20/gonski-proposes-school-funding-overhaul/

    [Monday, 20 February 2012
    Gonski proposes school funding overhaul
    by Bernard Keane

    The Gonski education funding review has proposed a significant overhaul of school funding to the federal government to replace a complex, incoherent and non-transparent funding system with a per-student funding model and a new approach to school capital funding that would cost up to $5b pa extra beyond current funding from all levels of government.]

  14. cyril,

    Interesting that Wilkie has now stepped back from what he was reported as saying yesterday.

    This means that it is unnecessary for Gillard to discuss disloyalty with Rudd when he returns aand perhaps act. This then leaves it with Rudd to challenge in the party Room. If he does not, then he hasn’t got the numbers.

  17. Gary

    Looks like you are right.

    [Prime Minister Julia Gillard is refusing to confront Kevin Rudd despite the leadership tensions paralysing her government.

    Speaking at a press conference to discuss the long-awaited Gonski review into the education system, Ms Gillard refused to accept there was a campaign against her leadership.

    She insisted she was keeping her focus on the government’s reform agenda.

    “I’m getting on with the job with the strong support of my caucus colleagues,” she said.

    “I’m getting on with my job. Kevin Rudd’s getting on with his.”]

    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/battle-lines-drawn-in-labor-leadership-stoush/story-e6frea6u-1226274666028

  21. Does anyone really think that JG will tell a media pack what she intends to do with a minister who is out of the country atm? Seriously, give her more credit than that.

  22. Goodness! Harcher and Grattan seem to have shifted over to a parallel universe today – one where “Dear Leader” Rudd has the numbers to mount a successful challenge.

    In this universe, it is clear that he doesn’t – and it is also clear that Gillard knows that. So she seems to be taking the “put up or shut up” option (with Crean as her intermediary).

    Rudd must now either shit or get off the pot. Since he doesn’t have the numbers, either one will be a clear win for Gillard – and without her having to lose any skin by engaging in a degrading public stoush (which of course is what the media really wants).

    With a bit of luck, by this time next week we’ll all be wondering what all the fuss was about!

  26. It seems to me that what is happening in the ALP at the moment is an election campaign aimed at the Caucus members. What a waste of energy. Surely there has to be a circuit breaker?

  27. [I think you mean Gillard not the party.]

    No TP, i dont.

    Have a look at the OP of this thread.

    [Despite the voting intention figures, a series of questions on substantive points of policy shows support for the government’s positions: 53 per cent support means testing the private health insurance rebate against 33 per cent opposed; 56 per cent support the National Broadband Network against 25 per cent opposed, respectively up two and down three since the question was last posed last April; and support for the mining tax is up four points since November to 55 per cent with opposition down five to 28 per cent.]

    On policy, actually doing what the govt is supposed to be doing, (that is running the country and not faffing around navel gazing in self adsorbed introspection), the Govt is doing pretty well under Gillard.

    The problem at the moment is Rudd and his aura of thwarted ambition. He’d look like a bit of a dick and be hugely vulnerable to the media pack if he takes the leadership for no other reason than he wus wobbed back in 2010. Rudd as leader now will be a cripple.

    For the ALP, Rudd is the puss in the boil. Needs lancing and disinfecting somehow.

    The least painful way for the party will be if Rudd slips away as gracefully as possible by writing himself out of contention at least till after the next election.

    Rudd could do that.

    Make a statement along the lines of that he’s doing it because the distraction being caused by the media over this is creating a situation where Australia could end up in the disastrous situation of having Abbott as PM and his joke of a front bench actually having to try running the country.

    Rudd could play this so he actually comes out, in the longer term, as a hero, rather than a Latham. Question is, will his ego get in the way??

  29. confessions,

    [ Why would Wilkie change his story? ]

    If you look at what he said a couple of days ago and what he said today, then he hasn’t changed it at all. Just clarified it as people were misconstruing what he said previously.

    For their own purposes, of course! 😉

  31. [Does anyone really think that JG will tell a media pack what she intends to do with a minister who is out of the country atm? ]

    Of course not. I watched the press conference and thought she handled the questions very well. Many were trying to goad her into saying she’d sack him or confront him, but she was able to hold her ground without saying anything too inflammatory or speculative.

  32. Scarpat

    [Why does Gillard need to confront Rudd in the first place and secondly what Government paralysis?]

    Crean said this morning the PM should “have a chat” with Rudd.

  34. [What do you think Rudd will do?]
    Lynchpin, he will go on being FM until or if he gets the numbers I guess. He can’t call for a spill without the majority of caucus wanting one.

  35. Imacca

    [For the ALP, Rudd is the puss in the boil. Needs lancing and disinfecting somehow.]

    Agree completely; but I don’t agree that Rudd will do what you suggest he does. I just don’t think he will walk away before the election.

    Other than Rudd walking away, how else in your opinion can the boil be lanced?

  36. Jezze, looking at Essential the Libs have a substantial set of their support base actually agreeing with the ALP’s policy on NBN (42%), PHI (38%), and MRRT (39%).

    These are not figures that would be providing any comfort to anyone in the Lib/Nats who are trying to actually work on policy. If anyone there is??

  37. from the last thread:

    Simon Crean claims this shouldn’t be about personality or popularity, then spends the rest of the interview character assassinating Rudd.
    And as for the claim that Rudd and his supporters are being DISLOYAL to Julia Gillard – I guess she was being very loyal in June 2010. 😉

    Its people like Crean (and Gillard btw) that is the reason that Victoria is now one if the strongest performing states for the ALP.
    evan 2gb needs to get out of his sydney centric headspace

    TP Menzies House is ➡ that way

  38. Diog @ 67
    What fool wrote that?
    [Ms Gillard refused to accept there was a campaign against her leadership. ]

    That is verballing. I heard the questions and she refused to answer, she didn’t “refuse to accept”. Simply said “I’m getting on with the job.”

  39. [Lynchpin, he will go on being FM until or if he gets the numbers I guess. He can’t call for a spill without the majority of caucus wanting one.]

    Gary, yes I agree. But I guess what worries me the most is he and his supporters will continue to canvas for votes – all to the detriment of re-election.

  40. [Surely there has to be a circuit breaker?]

    Just time and holding the line. The MSM frenzy is at a maximum already and the articles are becoming more absurd as the days go by – for example, Hartcher’s and Grattan’s columns in today’s press.

  41. There is no gov, paralysis
    Doing nothing is the best thing

    Have hear on a grapvine rudd has few bakers..’pm says nothing

    Let him sit in parliment next week among his peers i can tellu iwould be sitting as far away as i could
    For fear i was imlicated

  42. Lynchpin,

    That statement by Crean was premised on the “Wilkie” comments that Rudd had canvassed leadership and ongoing support for a Rudd Government. Given that weilkie has clarified his comments, then there is no need for the chat.

  47. Scarpat

    [Just time and holding the line. The MSM frenzy is at a maximum already and the articles are becoming more absurd as the days go by – for example, Hartcher’s and Grattan’s columns in today’s press.]

    Perhaps. They are dogs with bones, so to speak. Hartcher said I think that Rudd will win the ballot in about 2 weeks time.

  48. [confessions
    Posted Monday, February 20, 2012 at 2:40 pm | Permalink
    Why would Wilkie change his story?]
    Because someone told the dick that Rudd was going round in November telling NSW MPs that he would oppose the anti-pokie legislation in return for their backing.

  50. GG, you accept Wilkie’s word? Why did they have a 90 minute meeting anyway? What is Wilkie’s interest in foreign affairs. I don’t buy it.

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