Despite having mostly come too early for the weekend’s excitement, the weekly Essential Research poll has moved away a point from the 54-46 stasis in which it had been locked since December 12, with the Coalition lead now at 55-45. Since Essential is a two-week rolling average, so that only half the poll was conducted over the previous week, this shift is more likely to be meaningful than it would from another pollster, although it’s probably still within the margin of error. Labor is down a point on the primary vote to 33 per cent with the Coalition up one to 48 per cent and the Greens up one to 11 per cent.
Despite the voting intention figures, a series of questions on substantive points of policy shows support for the government’s positions: 53 per cent support means testing the private health insurance rebate against 33 per cent opposed; 56 per cent support the National Broadband Network against 25 per cent opposed, respectively up two and down three since the question was last posed last April; and support for the mining tax is up four points since November to 55 per cent with opposition down five to 28 per cent.
That’s actually quite a bold bet. Given the current turmoil, you’re predicting “steady as she goes”?!?
I’d be surprised, nay shocked, if leadershit hasn’t scraped a good 3 points off of the ALP for any polls taken right now. 57/43-59/41 wouldn’t be too surprising to me.
[That’s actually quite a bold bet. Given the current turmoil, you’re predicting “steady as she goes”?!?]
Well they seem to be stuck on 54, so I thought a tick up to 56 was reasonable, whereas I am discounting a shift down to 52.
Deb,
Tony Who?
How do you think Obama willl do Greentard?
Given you can see the future… and such.
And unsurprisingly the Fairfax papers seem to mainly be saying how this is such a genius move by Rudd: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/bloody-battle-to-the-death-as-rudd-makes-his-stand-20120222-1toaj.html
As does the Daily Telegraph. So we can guess how the media coverage of this is going to be…
I don’t usually read the papers, but I have even more reason to avoid them now. I really wish Kevin had put the party first. He should have been working to get the PM’s numbers up, not down. I just did not want to believe this of him. I really didn’t.
William@3512, Antony is a top notch psephologist, but his predictive skills in politics are no better than yours and mine.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
My heart bleeds!
http://www.smh.com.au/business/big-three-investors-lose-millions-as-tens-profits-plunge-20120222-1to66.html
Andrew Dyson on the spill.
And Alan Moir rolls Popeye out for a run on the subject.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
Ron Tandberg has a crack at it too.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
David Rowe’s imagery is always worth looking at.
http://www.afr.com/p/home/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
morning BK
People are posting on the new thread. You may not want to thoigh. It is the Gillard v Rudd thread
The War on Women in the US continues. What is happening over there?
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2012/02/22/video-the-war-on-women-including-girl-scouts/
Let’s hope this cartoon is prophetic.
Thanks vic
Douglas Adams sums it up best for me,
[The major problem – one of the major problems, for there are several – one of many major problems with governing people is that of whom you get to do it; or rather of who manages to get people to let them do it to them.
To summarize: it is a well-known fact, that those people who most want to rule people are, ipso facto, those least suited to do it. To summarize the summary: anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job. To summarize the summary of the summary: people are a problem.]
[Greensborough Growler
Posted Thursday, February 23, 2012 at 1:50 am | Permalink
GD,
You are being very kind to me tonght.
Thank you.]
Merit when it’s due. I remember back to the revolt. It was really the most shocking thing and I could not understand Gillard’s decision suddenly to change. It went against her character and, of course, undermined some of her credibility after being so publicly firm against such a move.
I reluctantly gave her the benefit because I had long admired her. It seems clear now that the chaos occurring at ministerial and administrative levels ultimately left her with no choice. It was becoming unworkable and the party was tearing itself apart – a terrible outcome for a first-term government.
In the sparring on the blog I do remember that you and fredn were very critical of the action at the time. But later as things started to get done in very difficult circumstances, you two were among the first to understand that – that we had a PM that was a nation-builder who was getting some great things in place. The level of difficulty did not seem to matter. She proved the point that politics is the art of the possible.
Until the Rudd whiteanting reached its current climax (4C I/V was the ultimate stuff up! Really?! It was just another bit of media entrails-gazing, fed by … guess. I still remain dismayed at the public broadcaster being dragged into such cheap gotchas. And that was supposed to prove she had no judgement and was underhanded!), I had remained very confident about Oct 2013. The other side is a black hole. Our side will have some great programs in place and still be a world-leading economy.
The psephs and a few of the more astute observers here have said she cannot recover from all the direct hits she’s taken. They may be right. But that view doesn’t seem to take into account that Gillard has always aimed at the longer game. Nor that she has firmly digested the last election campaign review, which was that Labor must have values and stand for some things, rather than slither and wither in the media and polls reaction.
We shall see, comrade. As for the immediate situation, I like the fact that Gillard has remained aloof from the groundfire. Even if the aftermath is a Ruddbath I’d expect that to continue.
[I really wish Kevin had put the party first.]
Err that is what he is doing, regardless of motive.
Kev is putting the party first really, the battle for control of the party against the faceless men. If he wins they will take a severe battering and their influence greatly harmed.
The hard battle you see going on attacking Rudd in outrageous terms is those silent party power brokers fighting for their life. This isn’t Gillard -v- Rudd.
Rudd wins then in the future decisions of Govt might be entirely made by and in Cabinet without having to kow tow to the demands of these people. This is why they hate Rudd.
These guys who went to Rudd when he was PM demanding stuff or else, he told them to FO. So the meme…Rudd treats all caucus badly (err not really, only the thugs got the real treatment).
People hoping for Gillard to win are hoping for a continuance of a system that allows a few people to knife a PM when they feel like it, or control a PM through implied threat if they feel like it, and they do.
Bilbo @4500
[St Kilda is actually rather affluent, though no doubt Fitzroy Street attracts its share of detritus. However, its seedy reputation always struck me as being a hangover from an earlier era. Despite what Paul Kelly (the singer) led me to believe, Kings Cross it ain’t. ]
The Kings Cross/Potts Point area is similarly affluent.
Thomas Paine@4566,
As someone who were sympathetic towards Rudd although supporting a continuation of Gillard as PM, let me tell you that Rudd has lost all the respect I once held for him. I cannot believe you still think he is fighting against the “faceless men”. He is only picking this line as a plot to increase his appeal to the public. He is doing this for himself and he doesn’t mind dragging Labor’s brand through mud while doing so. With him, it is now clear that there is no cabinet in a Rudd cabinet, it is all about Kevin, Kevin and Kevin.
After the evidence of him undermining the government (Note, not just Julia Gillard, the government) was made public I fail to see how any one would want this man anywhere near the lodge.
McLelland staying by the sound of it.