Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition

Despite having mostly come too early for the weekend’s excitement, the weekly Essential Research poll has moved away a point from the 54-46 stasis in which it had been locked since December 12, with the Coalition lead now at 55-45. Since Essential is a two-week rolling average, so that only half the poll was conducted over the previous week, this shift is more likely to be meaningful than it would from another pollster, although it’s probably still within the margin of error. Labor is down a point on the primary vote to 33 per cent with the Coalition up one to 48 per cent and the Greens up one to 11 per cent.

Despite the voting intention figures, a series of questions on substantive points of policy shows support for the government’s positions: 53 per cent support means testing the private health insurance rebate against 33 per cent opposed; 56 per cent support the National Broadband Network against 25 per cent opposed, respectively up two and down three since the question was last posed last April; and support for the mining tax is up four points since November to 55 per cent with opposition down five to 28 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,569 comments on “Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  1. [I think this is silly. If Labor did that they would struggle to get 35% of the 2pp vote at the next election.]

    The election is still 18 months away. It is obvious that the PM poll numbers have been cruel led by a deliberate campaign, with Rudd’s connivance, of the major media players.

    Like you, they have backed a loser, and it will be very damaging to them. People have already been voting with their feet away from traditional news. These revelations, and the Leveson inquiry, is ramming the nail into the coffin.

    You want to be a player, you take the knocks.

    They have all been upstaged by a lowly commoner, made good by our public education system, hurled up quite unprepared, against the wall of a Private school old boys club. They mocked her with vicious ridicule, damned her unfairly, and in the end crumbled before her humble common sense and decency.

    They are humiliated today, and she will drive home that humiliation in a few months when she gives up, without regret, that poison chalice they all hunger for. Having achieve in in the few months of unremitting hostility and vitriol, more than all of them together, have achieved in more than a decade.

    I didn’t like this woman, now I am full of admiration.

  2. Greentard Yes you will be correct expect the carbon tax will have less impact than the introduction of the GST and considering the Liberal Party needs to explain how it will roll back the compensation.

    I think the ALP face a massive mountain to climb in order to win the next election.

  3. [Greensborough Growler
    Posted Thursday, February 23, 2012 at 12:18 am | Permalink

    Boerwar,

    I’ll put myself in the possibly insane category by asserting that this leadership crisis might be the making of Gillard. Having smitten her undermining foe easily she will turn her attention to Little Boy Abbott. Come July 1 the tax cuts etc come into play and already surging PM Gillard will test her newfound popularity at an election in October and win decisively. ]

    I’m another crazy too, GG. The psephs are universally predicting defeat, but I’m still wait and see.

    Then again, I’m always an optimist.

  4. Greentard,

    I suspect that Gillard received a variety of advice regarding what she should do. Some of this she may have even asked for.

    What numnuts like you don’t understand is that Gillard has played Rudd like Stradivarius Violin. She has achieved her objective of Rudd out of cabinet and has not conceded anything to achieve it.

    Gillard has a fairly good track record of negotiating outcomes to her advantage. These include becoming PM, the agreement with the Indies to form Government and the ability to run a productive Parliament despite not having a majority.

    Why does she need to buckle to anyone when she manages to achieve her objectives doing things her way.

  5. [ lefty e Posted Thursday, February 23, 2012 at 12:04 am @ 4294

    My Timorese mates are laughing at how crazy Oz politics is. I think theyre right. ]

    Timor, where attempting to assassinate leaders is more than a metaphor.

  6. I think it was William that predicted that her vote might have bottomed and would improve as people became use to the carbon tax

    Yep, of course it will, but now the nervous lemmings are getting spooked and are about to follow Rudd out right out of office.
    Sacrificing policy all in the name of the cult of personality

  7. William yes St Kilda is affluent but it is still home to a large under previllaged community with various drug and other social issues and of course it still has a large illegal prostitution community as well.

    A large number of public houses and homeless still exist within St Kilda. It is no Malvern or Caulfield

  8. [The election is still 18 months away. It is obvious that the PM poll numbers have been cruel led by a deliberate campaign, with Rudd’s connivance, of the major media players.]
    This is just wishful thinking. Her poll numbers are at the best they have been for a year, yet if an election was held today, Labor would lose 15 – 20 seats!

    The polls aren\’t going to turn around with Gillard as leader because many voters, including Labor leaners, feel that she is 1) illegitimate because she has never won a majority 2) she is a liar for saying she wouldn\’t introduce a carbon tax and then doing just that.

    Swing voters won\’t vote for someone they perceive as an illegitimate liar.
    [They have all been upstaged by a lowly commoner, made good by our public education system, hurled up quite unprepared, against the wall of a Private school old boys club. They mocked her with vicious ridicule, damned her unfairly, and in the end crumbled before her humble common sense and decency.]
    Gillard went to Unley high which is a pretty exclusive school by the standards of public schools.
    [They are humiliated today, and she will drive home that humiliation in a few months when she gives up, without regret, that poison chalice they all hunger for. Having achieve in in the few months of unremitting hostility and vitriol, more than all of them together, have achieved in more than a decade.]
    I don\’t understand the point of your post. You start defending Gillard, but now you end by conceding that she needs to either resign or somehow be forced out to give Labor a hope of winning the next election.

  9. St Kilda is actually rather affluent, though no doubt Fitzroy Street attracts its share of detritus. However, its seedy reputation always struck me as being a hangover from an earlier era. Despite what Paul Kelly (the singer) led me to believe, Kings Cross it ain’t.

    William, StKilda (and Melbourne Ports in general) has the highest number of roominghouses then any other lectorate. It also has one of the highest number of constituents living at poverty levels and with significant mental health issues. The myth that the place is getting over run by “yuppies” is just that a myth. Those Yuppies tending to be renters rather than owners. Those days about what Paul Kelly sang about haven’t left and it can be every bit as seedy as the cross, its just that its not as in your face as what the cross is.

  10. [Greentard Yes you will be correct expect the carbon tax will have less impact than the introduction of the GST and considering the Liberal Party needs to explain how it will roll back the compensation.

    I think the ALP face a massive mountain to climb in order to win the next election.]
    Yes in practical terms the carbon tax will have less effect than the GST.

    The only thing voters will remember is that Gillard said she wasn\’t going to introduce one, and then she did.

    The fact many people and families will actually be better off won\’t come into the discussion. Families will just remember she said she wouldn\’t do something and then she went and did it. Whatever you say about Howard and the GST, he at least went to the election in 1998 saying he would do it. Of course a majority voted against it, but that is besides the point. Gillard did the total opposite, said she wouldn\’t do it but then ending up doing it.

  11. Actually many of those professionals tend to live in the surrounding burbs like Elwood, Albert Park, Middle Park, Caulfield/Elsternwick.

  12. Greentard,

    1. Polls can switch dramatically see Howard in 2001 and Keating 1992 to election in 1993. Both times large vote deficits were turned around. It can and has been done.
    2. Howard was called all sorts of things up to and including lying rodent. He made a career out of back flips, policy reversals and straight out lies. Howard won 4 elections.

    People vote for issues that affect them at the time of the election.

  13. [Greentard,

    I suspect that Gillard received a variety of advice regarding what she should do. Some of this she may have even asked for.]
    Just read the reports over the last three days. The Gillard \’supporters\’ back-grounding journalists have overwhelmingly been telling journos that Gillard needs to sack Rudd. That is a very public ultimatum of them telling her what to do, which was a very slightly veiled threat to BOTH Rudd and Gillard herself, i.e. if Gillard didn\’t follow their advice, that would place them into conflict which could result in her losing their support sometime down the line.

    [What numnuts like you don’t understand is that Gillard has played Rudd like Stradivarius Violin. She has achieved her objective of Rudd out of cabinet and has not conceded anything to achieve it.]
    What idiotis like you don\’t understand is that Gillard\’s supporters have played Gillard like a Stradivarius Violin. They have achieved their objective of showing that they can control what Gillard does by implying they will withdraw their support if Gillard doesn\’t follow their instructions.
    [Gillard has a fairly good track record of negotiating outcomes to her advantage. These include becoming PM, the agreement with the Indies to form Government and the ability to run a productive Parliament despite not having a majority.]
    None of these things will help her get re-elected. The public thinks she is an illegitimate liar who doesn\’t have a P.M.\’s authority. This will doom her leadership and mean she won\’t be PM at the next election.

    [Why does she need to buckle to anyone when she manages to achieve her objectives doing things her way.]
    Because she isn\’t a dictator. She is reliant on the support of her backers, and that means sometimes doing their bidding.

  14. They have all been upstaged by a lowly commoner, made good by our public education system, hurled up quite unprepared, against the wall of a Private school old boys club. They mocked her with vicious ridicule, damned her unfairly, and in the end crumbled before her humble common sense and decency.

    They are humiliated today, and she will drive home that humiliation in a few months when she gives up, without regret, that poison chalice they all hunger for. Having achieve in in the few months of unremitting hostility and vitriol, more than all of them together, have achieved in more than a decade.

    I didn’t like this woman, now I am full of admiration.
    Hear Fucking Hear

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MGMESM8JKOg

  15. Kings Cross it ain’t.

    To be fair, Kings Cross doesn’t really live up to the media portrayal of itself. It’s mostly quite tame IMO, but what would I know, I just live there.

  16. [Greentard,

    1. Polls can switch dramatically see Howard in 2001 and Keating 1992 to election in 1993. Both times large vote deficits were turned around. It can and has been done.]
    There were reasons for these changes. In 2001 you had Tampa, the S11 terrorist attacks (which faours incumbents), and populist yet economically stupid policies such as ending indexation of fuel excise.

    In 1993, Keating was running against a Coalition that had made itself an enormous target by proposing a 15% GST. Whereas Labor is trying to push a lot of significant reforms against an opposition that is proposing nothing, or at least nothing that is coherent. It is the ultimate small target strategy.

    So the current situation is completely different to both of those previous occasions. There is no evidence that the polls are going to close when they have been stuck where they have been for 4 months.

    [2. Howard was called all sorts of things up to and including lying rodent. He made a career out of back flips, policy reversals and straight out lies. Howard won 4 elections.]
    But Howard always had the authority of the office because he had a majority. He also didn\’t knock off a sitting PM. He certainly backflipped on lots of things, but in 1998 he did go to the voters and tell them he was going to introduce a new tax, whereas Gillard has done the opposite. Said she wouldn\’t introduce a new tax and then she did it anyway.

    [People vote for issues that affect them at the time of the election.]
    And an important issue is the character of the leader, and they perceive Gillard as being 1) Illegitimate because she hasn\’t won a majority 2) a liar because she introduced a tax that she explicitly said she wouldn\’t introduce.

  17. [I don\’t understand the point of your post. You start defending Gillard, but now you end by conceding that she needs to either resign or somehow be forced out to give Labor a hope of winning the next election.]

    I just don’t think she believes she is more important than her beliefs. She will stay just long enough to make sure her agenda is implemented, then, if the polls are not favorable to the continuation of that agenda, she adopt other means of achieving them. If that means resigning and going to the deputy position, she would do it on her terms – gladly. Just my humble opinion.

  18. Greentard,

    The Liberal proposition as it stands will be to increase the taxes of the poorest people to give the rich a tax break. The workers will have their Super fiddled to allow rich mining Companies to make more millions. Many working people are winners under the carbon pricing compensation and that will be taken away. On top of that the Libs will stop the NBN , take away a tax cut from small business and start with a black hole in their budget costings of at leats $72 bill.

    Good luck with that.

  19. Actually many of those professionals tend to live in the surrounding burbs like Elwood, Albert Park, Middle Park, Caulfield/Elsternwick.

    Yep

    its places like StKilda and St Melbourne where the action is,
    Park Towers is party central btw :devil:

  20. [I didn’t like this woman, now I am full of admiration.]

    I must admit JohD, I was pretty crapped-off when Rudd was dumped as there didn’t seem to be much reason for it at the time. Later, as I read more about his personality and style and the problems people were having with it, I began to understand.

    As for Gillard, I too was initially sceptical, but the job she’s done since 2010 in first stringing-together a workable minority Government, then getting some really fantastic policy up and running has cemented my support for her.

    And I’m pretty annoyed at Rudd for the current fracas, too.

    Again, I had thought the whole thing was nothing more than a media beat-up from the usual anti-Labor MSM cheer squad, but it now seems clear he’s been playing silly-buggers and white-anting Gillard for quite some time.

    I think it’s reasonably clear she’ll see-off any challenge, but whatever happens on that score and in 2013, Gillard will go-down as one of the Labor Greats, IMHO.

    In the end, you’re judged by what you achieve in your time in office, not the number of elections you win. And she’s sure got the runs on the board there.

  21. [This little black duck
    Posted Thursday, February 23, 2012 at 1:26 am | Permalink

    GD,

    Whatever that garbage was you quoted it certainly wasn’t the work of This little black duck.]

    Dunno what you mean, unless it was Shakespeare’s Coriolanus. He was a warrior hero who fell out with the Roman powers, joined up with the enemy, but at the last minute was persuaded to save Rome.

    No, I wasn’t attributing it to you, although I did like your allusion to Odesseyus the other night.

  22. greentard,

    Gillard and Labor will run on the issue of “Who do you trust to look after your family” and win easily over the disorganised rabble known as the Opposition.

  23. JohD –

    if the polls are not favorable to the continuation of that agenda, she adopt other means of achieving them. If that means resigning and going to the deputy position, she would do it on her terms – gladly.

    Well said. I have no idea what is going to happen, but I’d like to think this would happen.

    It’s the old question about why are you in power – to stay in power, or to achieve something. I’d like to think that Julia Gillard (or any good leader) is about the latter, not the former. If stepping down is the best thing to do for the country, the ALP and her legacy, then I think she will do that – when the time is right. That time is not now; certainly not the time of Kevin Rudd’s choosing, nor of the media’s choosing.

  24. [Greentard,

    The Liberal proposition as it stands will be to increase the taxes of the poorest people to give the rich a tax break. The workers will have their Super fiddled to allow rich mining Companies to make more millions. Many working people are winners under the carbon pricing compensation and that will be taken away. On top of that the Libs will stop the NBN , take away a tax cut from small business and start with a black hole in their budget costings of at leats $72 bill.

    Good luck with that.]
    Many voters don\’t care about any of these things. They do not trust Gillard. They think she is a liar who is not legitimately in the office of PM.

    If they have to vote for the Coalition to get rid of her they will do so.

  25. [greentard,

    Gillard and Labor will run on the issue of “Who do you trust to look after your family” and win easily over the disorganised rabble known as the Opposition.]
    And the Coalition\’s response will be that you can\’t trust Gillard when she lies about things such as introducing new taxes.

  26. [If they have to vote for the Coalition to get rid of her they will do so.]

    And they’ll wear the abolition of the Gillard tax cuts and pension increases to do so will they?

    Wow.

  27. [smithe,

    Well said.

    It ain’t about the polls.]
    When does it start being about the polls?

    Gillard has been behind in every poll since the last election. How long does she have from now to turn things around?

    Surely the polls become important as the election nears?

  28. [And they’ll wear the abolition of the Gillard tax cuts and pension increases to do so will they? ]
    The Coalition will just for them by adding to the debt.

    Conservatives only campaign against debt and deficits when in opposition. They don\’t matter so much when in government.

  29. Gillard has repeatedly been told over the last few days to sack Rudd. It is clear that that was actually an ultimatum, that she do it now, or she would lose support as the people backing her sought another leadership candidate who would be willing to do it.

    And your proof of this is what?

  30. [To be fair, Kings Cross doesn’t really live up to the media portrayal of itself. It’s mostly quite tame IMO, but what would I know, I just live there]

    Granted I haven’t really been there in 10 years.

  31. Seems the ALP lacks the imagination to get Julia and Kevin working together effectively. Splitting the Prime Ministers role between them intelligently would have avoided nonsense and gained the strength of each.
    I understand why the ALP dawdled right (but didn’t like) and disappeared the Australian Democrats into History (with a little help from The Greens) but they didn’t actually have to take on the Australian Democrats leadership culture.

  32. Granted I haven’t really been there in 10 years.

    Things did change quite a bit when the drug injecting room opened. There are a few more drug dependent people hanging around, but waaaaay less syringes in the streets and overdose corpses in the alleyways, so on balance it’s probably a little less edgy than it used to be.

    Now the biggest problems are the hordes of drunken teenagers who flood in on Saturday nights turning the place into a complete zoo.

  33. [Who here thinks Gillard will win the next election?

    By that I mean at least 77 Labor MPs in the House of Reps?]

    I think it’d be damn hard, but I wouldn’t rule it out entirely just yet.

  34. Greentard, you can try to predict the next election if you like, but having been on this site for a while I am loathe yo predict the next poll.

  35. Puff

    So tricky that email thing I do

    Thanks for the message re transport

    I too have a wedding anniversary on that very day

    Will be delighted

  36. Julia Gillard must be scaring the bejeepers out of the Big Greedy. If she sees Rudd off, they will be ordering extra silk underwear, in brown.

  37. The reason for this crisis
    ________________
    If Gillard had been able to keep her polling in the range of 50% this crisis would not have emerged..
    The low poll figures…for many months have alarmed the caucus…so what can be done to make her figures better
    Nothing she has done in the time since the last elections has improved that low figure
    ..and I suspect the coming polls will be much worse..look for a TPP near 40%…and then watch the caucus panic again

    The wild optimism of some on this site is really surprising.,..she’ll bounce back ! she’ll go for an early election in Oct..!.
    ..but this was being said here last year…and she never does bounce back !
    So what now

    The crisis will emerge again after the looming disaster in Q’Land as the caucus sees no sign of improvement
    So why not stand down and give the job to a young man like Tony Burke ?

  38. [Greentard, you can try to predict the next election if you like, but having been on this site for a while I am loathe yo predict the next poll.]
    Well I\’m happy to predict it. It will be somewhere in the range 54 – 56 for the Coalition.

    Which would translate to them winning 90 – 105 seats.

    The reason I know this is pretty obvious. That\’s the range the polls have been in for the last 13 – 14 months.

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