Despite having mostly come too early for the weekend’s excitement, the weekly Essential Research poll has moved away a point from the 54-46 stasis in which it had been locked since December 12, with the Coalition lead now at 55-45. Since Essential is a two-week rolling average, so that only half the poll was conducted over the previous week, this shift is more likely to be meaningful than it would from another pollster, although it’s probably still within the margin of error. Labor is down a point on the primary vote to 33 per cent with the Coalition up one to 48 per cent and the Greens up one to 11 per cent.
Despite the voting intention figures, a series of questions on substantive points of policy shows support for the government’s positions: 53 per cent support means testing the private health insurance rebate against 33 per cent opposed; 56 per cent support the National Broadband Network against 25 per cent opposed, respectively up two and down three since the question was last posed last April; and support for the mining tax is up four points since November to 55 per cent with opposition down five to 28 per cent.
[Watching Burke tonight I though he may make a suitable comoromise candidate
Rudd can’t getthe nukmbers and unfortunately Giillard may have the numbers but can’t overcome the voters dislike of her…i]
A compromise candidate would be a total suicide mission.
There are two main problems with Gillard:
1) Voters don\’t trust her because they think she lied about the carbon tax
2) She toppled Rudd and then couldn\’t win a majority
Most voters think she is an illegitimate liar.
If there is a third candidate, that person to would suffer illegitimacy because they didn\’t face voters as leader at the 2010 election.
Going to a 3rd candidate would solve nothing.
bemused,
At some point you will have to give up your treachery and support the Leader of your Party or resign your membership.
I see your mentor Griffin is in the firing line as a duplicitous surrogate for the Poker Machine Industry. A sad decline for a former man of the people.
Greentard
I wonder if Gillard had the interest or temperament for Treasurer? However it may have been just a left thing.
Kevin,
I suppose it is technically possible. But the Party would probably appoint another candidate and the electorate may be none to pleased with a candidate forcing the spend of $500k to apply for a job they already had.
Burke
Not really sure how he differs politically from Abbott
WWP
So you think Rudd didn’t go hard on Turnbull about Lib division at the very time the bills came up because he wanted a DD?
[I wonder if Gillard had the interest or temperament for Treasurer? However it may have been just a left thing.]
I think she would\’ve been better at it than Swan.
Daretotread blame Rudd for any blowback in Qld election.
If he really cared for the party he would have kept his powder dry till after the Qld election.
But no, being the happy little egotistical vegemite his ego wouldnt wait.
[Going to a 3rd candidate would solve nothing.]
Well the frothing at the mouth rudd haters would be a problem if we bring Rudd back, Julia couldn’t convince the public that a glass of cold water on a hot day is a good thing and her hands are seen as dirty … a third candidate seems to be the only way to put this insane self destruction behind us.
[Is it still possible to resign your own seat and then run for it in the by-election you have caused?]
I don’t see why not. It happened in one of the Maori electorates in New Zealand last year.
[So you think Rudd didn’t go hard on Turnbull about Lib division at the very time the bills came up because he wanted a DD?]
Yes this was one of Rudd\’s biggest mistakes. Playing up Liberal divisions when he needed their votes in the Senate was dumb.
Danby would make a good community services minister, for one thing he is is exposed to more disadvantage than any other MP in the parliament.
Considering where his electoral office is.
[I don’t see why not. It happened in one of the Maori electorates in New Zealand last year]
But not likely if you want to be PM.
Resigning one\’s seat and running in the subsequent election used to happen a lot in the House of Commons. It was once considered compulsory if a back bench MP was appointed to a ministry, because the subsequent by-election gave voters an opportunity to veto the appointment.
[WWP
So you think Rudd didn’t go hard on Turnbull about Lib division at the very time the bills came up because he wanted a DD?]
I’m not sure what your point is but Rudd sold a ETS solution to Turnbull, if Turnbull had survived we’d have had a Rudd ETS.
IMHO if the greens had been sensible we’d have had a Rudd ETS.
It is just dishonest and contrary to known facts to assert Rudd didn’t go hard at the ETS. He just didn’t have a parliament it could be pushed through.
He didn’t go DD true but with the greens on the attack from their side, and the libs hard from their side a DD was a massive risk, and whether or not he’d have pulled off a DD win we will never know, I think it very unlikely.
Henry
This timeline is NOT of Rudd’s choosing. He wanted to wait until August.
[Danby would make a good community services minister]
Yeah, either way he is wasted on the backbench.
I don’t know about his credentials within the party but, to me, he doesn’t seem to have the ready intelligence to walk on the world stage.
[rosemour
Posted Wednesday, February 22, 2012 at 11:30 pm | Permalink
Black Duck,
80, 90……she has to win overwhelmingly….Rudd has to be completely humiliated (sorry Kevin) or they’re f#cked.
The MSM are aching for Tony to take over….they’re begging for it. They’re lubed up for it…..]
I’d reckon she’d get that … if there is a ballot. Rudd will probably find an excuse to wimp out.
WWP,
Greentard got my point @4461,
Rudd saw destroying Turnbull as more important that his ETS.
Unfortunately DTT traitors don’t get to choose the date of their execution.
I took the punt and said Rudd would be sacked before he returned from his overseas jaunt. Looks like he jumped before he was pushed.
I had no great insight except that I knew that the PM was doing things slow and steady, and by the book. The book says she had to cut-off the dragons head. I reckon she knew that, and the reports that Rudd resigned before got sacked, are probably true. It may also be the case that the Channel 7 report was the last straw.
Now I will say that Rudd will be expelled, or will resign before he is expelled, from the Labor party by early next week. It may even well be the case that he announces his resignation from parliament. He is no fighter, and the redhead wants to rumble. She will take no prisoners in this fight.
So, we are in for interesting times, with a genuine minority government. We can be sure that Wilke will again reign supreme, and that pokies legislation will pass with his amendments.
Bring on the Griffith by-elections – with all the attendant huffing and puffing, that signifies nothing except total worthlessness of an Abbott led Opposition.
I still think Gillard will be deputy PM come next election. She is a party girl after all.
This has a little detail on the Rudd/pokies story: http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/breaking/12985692/leadership-to-come-to-a-head/
GD,
Whatever that garbage was you quoted it certainly wasn’t the work of This little black duck.
Rudd could get some votes if he says he personally will vote in parliament in favour of same sex marriage.
[Danby would make a good community services minister, for one thing he is is exposed to more disadvantage than any other MP in the parliament.
Considering where his electoral office is.]
Is there a joke here I’m not getting?
Rudd will quit, the Fibs will dump Abbott and put Rudd up with Mesma as deputy . Ps , i find it easier to scroll pass the trolls, but getting a sore finger. Hope they keep our PM Gillard.
Your blog has deeply hidden recesses.
That one was too deep for me too.
Henry,
It also shows Rudd has been comprehensively out manouvred by Gillard. Gillard did little but express support. Yet Rudd has been exposed as a leadership plotter when it was all being fobbed off as media speculation, he has resigned from Cabinet and Gillard has called spill at a time when Rudd will get his arse kicked.
Confessions,
Thanks for the audio link.
Well, surprise, surprise. Rudd courted the media with the promise to some (unidentified) editors that he would drop the media enquiry. Rat bastard.
No wonder there was no clear air. No wonder why policy discussion, that is why the impression that everything she touched was crap. The media had real skin in the game.
Don’t any of you piss poor journos crow to me that leadershit was real. Yep. It was real, by you were players and made it happen. Bring on the media enquiry findings and recommendations.
You’re missing the point, as well as the renowned shallow thinkers such as DTT and TLM.
The GFC would have obliterated Costello (yes I am saying that perhaps the COALS could have won 07) and as a result would have entrenched Gillard at the next election pretty much for life.
then the big ticket items could have passed with out the grief that she has had to endure, just getting through the 07 policies that someone else was too useless to do anything about it.
Oh and just to remind the Ruddistas, The indies have reiterated that the will walk if Rudd returns, say hello to Prime Minister Abbott.
[Now I will say that Rudd will be expelled, or will resign before he is expelled, from the Labor party by early next week. It may even well be the case that he announces his resignation from parliament. He is no fighter, and the redhead wants to rumble. She will take no prisoners in this fight.]
I think this is silly. If Labor did that they would struggle to get 35% of the 2pp vote at the next election.
They can\’t keep attacking a former Labor P.M. and expect the voters to not retaliate by supporting the Coalition.
Rudd is part of what voters associate with the Labor brand, the more they attack him, the more they are attacking the brand itself.
Rudd won\’t resign from parliament on his own accord. If Gillard tries something as idiotic as expelling him from the party, then HE SHOULD resign, and force a by-election that Labor would lose in a landslide and with it government.
LBB,
You are like the front page of The Australian: no one knows whether you have facts or are just paid for your opinions.
[It also shows Rudd has been comprehensively out manouvred by Gillard.]
No, Gillard was basically given an ultimatum by the Right wing factional leaders. Either she sack Rudd, or they would throw their support behind a leader who was willing to sack him.
Then Rudd jumped before he was pushed.
His office is bang smack (pun not intended) in Fitzroy street.
Homelessness and urban poverty are literally right out side his front door.
He understands what drives those issues
Greentard,
If you have facts let us see them. Else, an “I think” might be the go. Even then you would be asked for why you thought so.
Do you realise that this blog craps on flummery and applauds thinking?
Greentard,
Bullshit.
Gillard’s office issued a denial of the Shanahan story mid afternoon.
Gillard has been totally consistent with her support of Rudd as FM.
Maybe Kate Jones could move to Griffith
Why did Rudd want to wait until August?
She still has and, I hope, will have a job in six weeks time.
[Greentard,
Bullshit.
Gillard’s office issued a denial of the Shanahan story mid afternoon.
Gillard has been totally consistent with her support of Rudd as FM.]
Greensborough Growler,
Dog\’s vomit.
Gillard has repeatedly been told over the last few days to sack Rudd. It is clear that that was actually an ultimatum, that she do it now, or she would lose support as the people backing her sought another leadership candidate who would be willing to do it.
I did not hear Gillard repudiate any of Crean\’s 3 interviews attacking Rudd over the last few days. Her refusal to do so was clearly a choice because she was preparing to sack him, as demanded by her supporters.
[Why did Rudd want to wait until August?]
I guess because by then Gillard\’s poll numbers would\’ve gone from abysmal to catastrophic.
I can confirm Mick is correct, Michael Danby office is right in the centre of the old St Kilda red light strip.
I suspect most days Danby’s staff would arrive at work and find evidence of disadvantage, ironically some parts of St Kilda are quite middle class but the old St Kilda is still a live and well in Fitzroy Street
I think it was William that predicted that her vote might have bottomed and would improve as people became use to the carbon tax
[Do you realise that this blog craps on flummery and applauds thinking?]
Are you sure? If that is the case, why are you here?
[WWP,
Greentard got my point @4461,
Rudd saw destroying Turnbull as more important that his ETS.]
That is an interesting theory.
[I think it was William that predicted that her vote might have bottomed and would improve as people became use to the carbon tax]
No, all they will remember is she promised never to introduce it, but then did so.
Say what you want about Rudd, but he was never so stupid to say \”there will never be a carbon tax under a government I lead\”.
[WWP,
Greentard got my point @4461,
Rudd saw destroying Turnbull as more important that his ETS.
That is an interesting theory]
It is also what happened.
Theres still lots of Old-School St Kida down there. Places like The Gattwick, Suicide Lodge, and the Regal are meters from his office, not to mention the crises centre and the Mission, just around the corner in Grey Street
St Kilda is actually rather affluent, though no doubt Fitzroy Street attracts its share of detritus. However, its seedy reputation always struck me as being a hangover from an earlier era. Despite what Paul Kelly (the singer) led me to believe, Kings Cross it ain’t.