Newspoll: 58-42 to LNP in Queensland

Newspoll has published the first poll of the Queensland election campaign, if that’s what it can accurately be called before the writs have been issued, and it offers no respite for the Bligh government: the LNP is up three points on the primary vote to 47 per cent, Labor is down one to 30 per cent and the Greens are down one to 9 per cent. Where in the final quarter of 2011 Labor narrowed its two-party vote deficit from 61-39 to 56-44, it’s now back out to 58-42. Anna Bligh has nonetheless gained two points on approval to 41 per cent, with disapproval steady on 50 per cent, while Campbell Newman’s disapproval rating continues to head north, to 37 per cent from 33 per cent in the previous poll and 27 per cent in the one before. His approval rating is steady at 45 per cent after a six-point drop last time. Both leaders are up a point on preferred premier, with Newman leading 44-40. There are also questions on respondents’ strength of commitment to their vote choice, which typically shows less commitment among supporters of the weaker party, and which party they expect to win (54 per cent for the LNP and 22 per cent for Labor). Full tables from GhostWhoVotes.

UPDATE (19/2): Now we have a Galaxy poll with the LNP’s two-party lead at 60-40, up from 59-41 a fortnight ago, with the primary votes at 30 per cent for Labor (down two), 49 per cent for the LNP (steady), 11 per cent for the Greens (up one) and 5 per cent for Katter’s Australian Party (up one). Campbell Newman’s lead over Anna Bligh as preferred premier is down from 49-40 to 50-43. Bligh is steady on approval at 43 per cent and up two on disapproval to 52 per cent; Newman is down one on approval to 47 per cent and up three on disapproval to 40 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

92 comments on “Newspoll: 58-42 to LNP in Queensland”

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  1. Campbell is probably wowing them the blue ribbon Liberal seats like clayfield, I hope he’s racking up the votes there rather than in the marginals.

  2. If the LNP wins a majority and Ashgrove then I expect the Katter Party to get a higher vote and more seats at the 2013 Commonwealth and 2015 Queensland elections.

  5. [Good numbers Ghost given what has been thrown at Newman.]

    Agreed DavidWH the trauma of having to spit that silver spoon from his mouth when born has been ongoingly difficult no doubt and having to bear all the gravitas of the born to rule syndrome is tough alright. Why people make there son’s life so difficult is hard to explain but these numbers will ease the pain somewhat.

  7. shellbell we saw exctly the same sort of lunacy when Christopher Skase owned the Brisbane Bears before they became the Lions. There has never been a good time to put dodgy Tories in charge of anything.

  8. Reality of Katter being a significant force in this election beginning to dawn on Tory cheersquad. Apparently the LNP thought they were just going to walk into government with no scrutiny and no opposition from anyone. If anyone can translate the tory speak below into plain English please do so.

    [Disgraceful Bob Katter giving preferences to Labor. Next he will support Rudd. Might as well vote green as KAP #qldpol #qldvotes]

  9. From KAP’s twitter…

    [After looking stringently @ ALP & LNP cannot see any social, economic difference in policies of either party

    KAP will not preference either ALP or LNP

    Queensland’s future is more important than propping up either Anna Bligh or Campbell Newman]

  11. DavidWH, hopefully the LNP leadership share your smugness and complacency towards Katter, because his One Nation in a hat is gonna give ‘Em a whippin’!

  12. I’m not smug but the polls aren’t showing Katter to be a material problem for the LNP. I think most people made up their minds a long time ago and are unlikely to change in sufficient numbers to change the outcome. Given what’s happening federally I doubt we want anothe minority government. But it is QLD so anything is possible

  13. I like the idea of an LNP landslide, it will put a lot of crazy people into the Qld parliament, some of the LNP candidates this time if elected around will make the likes of Frank Tanti and Ted Radke look almost bookish…

  21. I think that these Newspoll numbers for better able to handle the Queensland economy are corrupt and totally unbelievable. It looks like Newspoll has a very poor sample here. No way can those figures be real given reality of LNP track record of saying nothing on economic policy and the poor economic record of Newman as Lord Mayor. Add the refusal to be transparent about mix of Newman Inc. Public versus personal financial details and this poll question result is not in the realms of a true result meaning anything real.

  22. Steve @ 6.55am I am interested as to why you believe that the Newspoll numbers you mention are “corrupt and totally unbelievable”. The bottom right hand table seems to indicate it is split almost exactly on party lines and ties roughly to the primrary votes from Saturday’s poll (47 LNP vs 30+9 ALP+G).

  23. When people want change they move into the unknown, I just hope they blindly don’t return to the Joh era, the LNP with Newnam “the blow in” are a unknown quantity with as of now unknown policies, at least we KNOW the State is in resonable condition with huge potetial.
    Be careful of what you ask for!.

  24. KAP will help Labor a bit & maybe swing will be biggest in LNP seats but still looking like a very heavy defeat for ALP. Could it be particularity bad in Brisbane as urban voters rally to an urban conservative party?

  25. How are we going to return to Joe style corruption when we have a functioning CMC with wide powers to investigate corruption? It was a different era and things have changed.

  26. couriermail.com.au @couriermail
    Today I have accepted the resignation of Mr Peter Watson as candidate for Southern Downs- ALP’s state director Anthony Chisholm #qldvotes

  27. I don’t understand why you call Newman can-do?
    I would take that as a complement as someone prepared to do something.
    Unlike the clowns we have had in victoria in the last 10 years.
    Bailleu is a do-nothing
    Brumby was a did-nothing to be premier
    and bracks was a firecracker – made a lot of noise, but achieved very little. (regional trains excluded).

  28. The @LNPQLD say they have nothing to do with the Aust Family Assoc, but they will NOT say whether they do or do not support the message.

  32. Personally I’ve been of the view that Newspolls have been used to steer elections towards the conservatives across the world. I find it significant that everyone of their polls anywhere show massive support for the local conservative parties.

    I expect these pollsters to cover their arses closer to the election with a late narrowing of the gap between the parties like the last Queensland election where on election day the Courier Mail headlined (incorrectly) that voters were deserting Labor in droves and implied a LNP victory.

    The election will be a litmus test for Newspoll accuracy

  36. Reach Tel did a recent survey on Ferny Grove which shows if anything the swing is back to the LNP. Mind you I agree those polls have to be taken with a degree of scepticism.

  37. DavidWH@86

    Reach Tel did a recent survey on Ferny Grove which shows if anything the swing is back to the LNP. Mind you I agree those polls have to be taken with a degree of scepticism.

    Well I choose to take the serious predictions of a psychic bear over your hocus-pocus “polling.”

  40. I had a Reach poll the other night , and i am in the edge of Lockyer ( Greenbank ). It was a computer asking Questions . Saw a Newman sign on the Greenbank Army Camp Fence (actually inside fence )??? Is that allowed on Commonwealth Land ? I rang Craig Emerson’s office to inform them. Looks like i will be busy pulling down illegal signs AGAIN !

  41. Mack the Knife

    The Newspoll got the NSW and Federal election exactly right. They under-reported the Liberal vote in the last SA, WA and Victoria Election.

    Based on past trends, if Newspoll has any bias, it would be to the ALP

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