Newspoll has published the first poll of the Queensland election campaign, if that’s what it can accurately be called before the writs have been issued, and it offers no respite for the Bligh government: the LNP is up three points on the primary vote to 47 per cent, Labor is down one to 30 per cent and the Greens are down one to 9 per cent. Where in the final quarter of 2011 Labor narrowed its two-party vote deficit from 61-39 to 56-44, it’s now back out to 58-42. Anna Bligh has nonetheless gained two points on approval to 41 per cent, with disapproval steady on 50 per cent, while Campbell Newman’s disapproval rating continues to head north, to 37 per cent from 33 per cent in the previous poll and 27 per cent in the one before. His approval rating is steady at 45 per cent after a six-point drop last time. Both leaders are up a point on preferred premier, with Newman leading 44-40. There are also questions on respondents’ strength of commitment to their vote choice, which typically shows less commitment among supporters of the weaker party, and which party they expect to win (54 per cent for the LNP and 22 per cent for Labor). Full tables from GhostWhoVotes.
UPDATE (19/2): Now we have a Galaxy poll with the LNP’s two-party lead at 60-40, up from 59-41 a fortnight ago, with the primary votes at 30 per cent for Labor (down two), 49 per cent for the LNP (steady), 11 per cent for the Greens (up one) and 5 per cent for Katter’s Australian Party (up one). Campbell Newman’s lead over Anna Bligh as preferred premier is down from 49-40 to 50-43. Bligh is steady on approval at 43 per cent and up two on disapproval to 52 per cent; Newman is down one on approval to 47 per cent and up three on disapproval to 40 per cent.