Newspoll: 58-42 to LNP in Queensland

Newspoll has published the first poll of the Queensland election campaign, if that’s what it can accurately be called before the writs have been issued, and it offers no respite for the Bligh government: the LNP is up three points on the primary vote to 47 per cent, Labor is down one to 30 per cent and the Greens are down one to 9 per cent. Where in the final quarter of 2011 Labor narrowed its two-party vote deficit from 61-39 to 56-44, it’s now back out to 58-42. Anna Bligh has nonetheless gained two points on approval to 41 per cent, with disapproval steady on 50 per cent, while Campbell Newman’s disapproval rating continues to head north, to 37 per cent from 33 per cent in the previous poll and 27 per cent in the one before. His approval rating is steady at 45 per cent after a six-point drop last time. Both leaders are up a point on preferred premier, with Newman leading 44-40. There are also questions on respondents’ strength of commitment to their vote choice, which typically shows less commitment among supporters of the weaker party, and which party they expect to win (54 per cent for the LNP and 22 per cent for Labor). Full tables from GhostWhoVotes.

UPDATE (19/2): Now we have a Galaxy poll with the LNP’s two-party lead at 60-40, up from 59-41 a fortnight ago, with the primary votes at 30 per cent for Labor (down two), 49 per cent for the LNP (steady), 11 per cent for the Greens (up one) and 5 per cent for Katter’s Australian Party (up one). Campbell Newman’s lead over Anna Bligh as preferred premier is down from 49-40 to 50-43. Bligh is steady on approval at 43 per cent and up two on disapproval to 52 per cent; Newman is down one on approval to 47 per cent and up three on disapproval to 40 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

92 comments on “Newspoll: 58-42 to LNP in Queensland”

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  1. Labor on these figures lose:

    Chatsworth ALP 0.1%
    Everton ALP 1.4%
    Broadwater ALP 2.0%
    Cook ALP 2.2%
    Barron River ALP 2.3%
    Toowoomba North ALP 3.2%
    Whitsunday ALP 3.2%
    Southport ALP 3.5%
    Townsville ALP 4.0%
    Springwood ALP 4.1%
    Cairns ALP 4.2%
    Mansfield ALP 4.4%
    Ferny Grove ALP 4.5%
    Kallangur ALP 4.6%
    Pine Rivers ALP 4.6%
    Mount Ommaney ALP 4.8%
    Burleigh ALP 4.9%
    Pumicestone ALP 5.0%
    Mount Coot-tha ALP 5.3%
    Redcliffe ALP 5.6%
    Mount Isa ALP 5.7%
    Brisbane Central ALP 6.0%
    Albert ALP 6.5%
    Mundingburra ALP 6.6%
    Greenslopes ALP 6.9%
    Ashgrove ALP 7.1%
    Murrumba ALP 7.2%
    Stafford ALP 7.3%
    Keppel ALP 7.6%
    Bulimba ALP 7.8%
    Mulgrave ALP 8.1%
    Thuringowa ALP 8.5%

    Labor needs to improve about 4% during the election campaign to become competitive.

  2. Steve

    You could add Yeerongpilly, Algester and Morayfield to that to get an even 9% swing.

    On those figures, Labor is getting very close to 1974 levels.

  3. So the only figure that’s got momentum is Campbell Newman’s rising disapproval. Beattie is predicting a volatile election, it’s going to be a cracker of a campaign.

  4. Luckydave given the combination of errors of judgement and what Labor has thrown at Newman his approval/disapproval ratings are better than I expected. The polling is better than I expected but I do expect things to tighten over the next five weeks.

    Something around 54/46 on March 24 seems a realistic result. Depends also on what more Labor has on Newman

  5. Steve

    If nothing else , the 1974 election article shows the unreliability of Wikipedia as a source – it talks about Labor winning the primary vote. The concept of a coalition seems to have escaped the author entirely.

  6. In 1974:

    Labor won 36.04% of the vote for 13.41% of the seats.

    Liberals won 31.09% of the vote for 36.59% ofthe seats.

    Nationals won 27.88% of the vote for 47.56 % of the seats.

  7. Katter’s 4.8% could make some of these seats interesting. These eight seats would have to be big possibilities for Katter to pick up:

    Nanango IND 2.9% v LNP
    Redlands LNP 0.1%
    Cleveland LNP 0.3%
    Burdekin LNP 0.5%
    Mirani LNP 0.6%
    Gaven LNP 0.7%
    Coomera LNP 1.9%
    Mudgeeraba LNP 3.9%

  8. [Steve if Katter’s party is showing at less than 5 percent how could he expect to win more than say 2 or 3 seats at best?]

    Katter can and probably win all those seats and the election hasn’t even begun yet. On what basis would you say 2 or 3 seats at best. The figures quoted clearly show katter can win ten seats. Beaudesert, Dalrymple and the eight listed above as the election winds into top gear and if the LNP disintegrate more might become possible.

  9. Steve, Katter’s party will be less likely to win seats that highly marginal in Labor-LNP terms, because they will have a big hurdle to clear to get ahead of either margin party and then win the seat on their preferences. And they certainly won’t be winning seats in Brisbane and the Gold Coast, which accounts for most of your list.

  10. If we look back at the sort of seats One nation won in 1998, we’d be looking at things like:

    Glass House
    Hervey Bay
    Ipswich West

  11. Steve I meant that if you have less than 5 percent overall then to win a seat or three you have to use up a lot of that 5 percent in those seats. They have to finish in front of at least one of the majors to pick up preferences. I just can’t see them getting more than a few at best with 5 percent and then they would have to poll very low in the rest.

    The other issue is they are probably pulling votes from Labor as well so based on your assertion they are just as likely to win Labor seats.

  12. Of the list of seats listed, I think the ALP may hold the following seats. there are several others that I consider close.

    My reading is that the LNP still have a problem about if they are for all of Queensland or just the South East and also the impact of Australia Party will be interesting

    Townsville ALP 4.0%
    Springwood ALP 4.1%
    Cairns ALP 4.2%
    Mount Coot-tha ALP 5.3%
    Redcliffe ALP 5.6%
    Mount Isa ALP 5.7%
    Brisbane Central ALP 6.0%
    Mundingburra ALP 6.6%
    Greenslopes ALP 6.9%
    Keppel ALP 7.6%
    Bulimba ALP 7.8%
    Mulgrave ALP 8.1%
    Thuringowa ALP 8.5%

  13. Steve yes but if my knowledge of the seat is correct the Mt Isa booths are very strong, I recall Katter once saying that the ALP primary was in the mid 70%

    I expect Katter’s party to come a clear second pushing the seat to preferences

  14. My prediction, Katter will do better than the Greens. Based on these poll numbers, the regional nature of Queensland and the lotto of optional preferential voting – a Balance of Power scenario with Bob Katter’s bad boys supporting the LNP is now a likely result.

    We’ll know how big a threat Katter is to outright LNP govt simply by watching where Campbell Newman campaigns whenever he leaves his Ashgrove bunker.

  15. It appears to me that my fellow Queenslanders have a secret desire to return to the Joh years and vote against their own self interests.

    Should the LNP be successful Queenslanders will be effectively asking for their own dose of Newmans workchoices, the desecration of the wild rivers of the north and a severe dose of cronyism which is already evident with his ties to family buisnesses.

    The LNP has no policies and there will be some wild claims of mandates to do this and that.

    The northern Territorians will put the sign back up at the NT-Qld border which will say, Welcome to Qld, put your clock back 40 years and half an hour.

    The defacto Premiers will be Clive Palmer and Gina Rhinehart.

    It will be a good result for redneck radio and Mordor media.

  16. DavidWH now that’s an interesting pitch! Redneck rampage versus more of the same. I think it is precisely the reason Peter Beattie thinks there will be a lot of liveliness in the campaign.

  17. [time to give the red necks a try because the other side has lost their way.]

    As opposed to Canberra where is was time the red heads a try because the same side had lost their way.

  18. It has been reported fairly widely that the Katter Party were looking to win Mount Isa with a next generation of Katters as candidate. Possibly one day this young Katter will attempt to take over Kennedy from Dad. It is very conceivable the NQ Labor voter would desert Labor for a populist Bob Katter but not for the LNP.

    Interesting to note that the seat of Kennedy has been held by members of two families – the Riordans and the Katters since 1929 with the exception of 1990 – 93.

  19. View from the cheersquad leader:

    [The LNP’s private polling three weeks ago put the two-party vote in its favour, 53 per cent to 47 per cent. But it was the “solid” nature of those votes – that is, voters had no intention of changing their minds – that is boosting their confidence.

    Labor’s work shows a “softer” or moving vote, and it believes that has helped Jones over the past four weeks, and could even provide a fillip elsewhere in the state.

    “Bligh is like Howard,” one senior ALP insider said. “People have made up their mind about her. Ashgrove is about a month ahead of the rest of the state. They are having a closer look at Newman and starting to ask questions.”

    That belief is at the centre of the attacks on the Newman family’s business dealings.

    This explains Anna Bligh’s hysterical attack on Newman this week, and you can expect more of it. Any doubts Labor can raise over Newman also take attention away from its own record in government.

    The LNP will focus on that record, believing voters in Ashgrove are just like those in seats across the state wanting to punish Labor.

    There’s no doubt Kate Jones is a strong and popular local candidate but even the best swimmers will need a lot of good luck if they’re to survive a tsunami.]

  20. Fake Jeff Seeney @FakeJeffSeeney

    Height of irony that @MichaelCrandon says the Govt’s a broken record while repeating the “tired 20y Labor Govt” line for the umpteenth time.

  21. Sue Lappeman from the Gold Coast bulletin:

    [In what was undoubtedly a tense week, I bumped into Ray Stevens, who angrily demanded clarification about a story I wrote weeks ago about half the Gold Coast candidates living outside their electorates.

    All I wrote was: LNP MPs Ray Stevens and Michael Crandon also do not live in their seats of Mermaid Beach and Coomera.

    Mr Stevens said I made it sound like he lived in Melbourne and he lives 200m from the boundary.

    Oh, so you live in the electorate?

    “No, I live 200m from the boundary.”

    So you live outside the electorate?

    “I live 200m from the boundary.”

    So I would just like to clarify, Mr Stevens does not live in his electorate. On my calculations I have now angered eight out of the 10 Gold Coast MPs in the past few months, both LNP and ALP.

    Clearly, I have not been trying hard enough.]

  22. Timmy Nicholls the big winner from LNP win:

    [This prompted Premier Anna Bligh to accuse the LNP of a “secret plan B” being withheld from voters. Mr Nicholls did not return calls from The Australian yesterday.

    Mr Nicholls has a strong Liberal lineage, having come up through the party ranks with nine years in the Young Liberals and six state campaigns for party strongman Santo Santoro as campaign organiser under his belt by 2004 in his present electorate of Clayfield.

    He practised as a lawyer before entering the Brisbane council for the Hamilton ward in 2000. For two years he worked with Mr Newman, as Brisbane mayor from 2004, before jumping into state politics in 2006.

    In his maiden speech to parliament, Mr Nicholls thanked Mr Newman for “great opportunities to learn, not just politics but leadership”. Mr Nicholls also cited a controversial figure in the Queensland party, former senator Santoro as “my great friend”.

    His close relationship with the powerbroker was cited as one of the reasons he has yet to seize the leadership despite challenges in 2006 and 2007.]

  23. I don’t mind Nicholls. He seems like a straight talker or as straight as any politician can be. His task is to get past the old Brisbane Liberals bias with the Nationals element.

  24. And nobody to verify the assumption behind the figures as usual.

    [David Moore @thenextlevel1

    Respected former Qld Auditor-General Len Scanlan will independently verify costing of the LNP’s election commitments. #restoreaccountability
    Retweeted by Col Smith ]

  25. Why does the LNP insist on glossing over the Borbidge/Sheldon government? Is it because they were sloppy in every area, especially economic management?

    Personally, I think the Qld ALP should run a “what have the Romans done for us?” parody. Along the lines of: brought pay and class sizes for teachers up to the national standard, introduced prep, ditto for nurses, introduced free ambulance cover for all, protected the environment, bootstrapped a high tech medical research sector, introduced and sustained the Crime and Misconduct Commission, massively increased child protection and disability resourcing, improved infrastructure across the board, fueled jobs, facilitated mining sector development, expanded public housing, removed corrupt police and increased numbers, a falling crime rate, fought off the work choices attack…..the list goes on.

    All the while under attack from a do nothing, don’t care, lazy policy free opposition. I can’t argue with the with the polling the LNP (and Katter) look set to form another government, which has all the hallmarks of another mess. A government they will spend a long time trying to gloss over in the future.

  26. [I don’t think we care Steve as sad as that may seem.]

    i seem to remember someone screaming for a

    I’d have thought that at a time in history where people were actually feeling economic pain due to the GFC and European knock on effects that economic management might be important to the LNP but apparently not so according to DavidWH. Hard times call for unaccountability and secrecy along with no auditing or testing of assumptions behind their dubious unfunded election promises is the LNP way. I am surprised.

  27. Katter is announcing preference allocations at Canungra tomorrow.

    [Aidan McLindon @aidanmclindon
    #media alert: announcing KAP preference allocations @ press conference 1pm tomorrow, Outpost Cafe, Canungra with @RealBobKatter #qldpol]

  28. After three Queensland elections where they helped Tories win seats in Brisbane the Greens have been woken up with a jolt. It will be interesting to see how much they preference their Tory mates this time but I think it might all be a bit late now.

    [“There can only be one way to understand this. He intends to make two-thirds of the department responsible for mining and resource industry facilitation and only one-third will enforce environmental protection legislation.

    “There is already a mining facilitation department – the Mines section of DEEDI – and the only department that can ensure the mining industry adheres to its environmental authorities – DERM – he wants to bring to heel.

    “Landowners and environmentalist have great difficulty now getting DERM officers out to investigate complaints about mining. It will be impossible once Campbell Newman starts cutting back on the department’s regulatory functions.”

    “The LNP is looming as an environmental nightmare for the people of Queensland and the facilitator of the most destructive practices by the mining and coal seam gas sectors,” Mr Hutton said.

    “Unless he changes tack on mining policy the Lock the Gate movement will be forced to campaign against him and the LNP in the election campaign.”]

  29. Wondering if we have missed the point of the sudden start of Ruddstration talk again- could it be about the Queensland election? Its not totally off the wall….the media had stopped -and last evening Laura Tingle ( looking very uncomfortable) and Dennis Shanahan( If I predict it often enough I will be right) were rehashing it again on Lateline
    Making sure that Mr Rudd is unpopular with Labor voters could be so that Campbell Newman ( who may have some very tricky questions to answer) is able to coast into Ashgrove. Discrediting Mr Rudd who is campaigning for Labor gives the LNP the edge.

  30. Catalyst:
    If this just a media beatup, all it requires to put it to bed is for Rudd to declare his undying loyalty to Gillard and state that he has no intention to challenge for the leadership before the next election. Rudd has shown no inclination to hose down the speculation which is so seriously destabilising the government.

    This has nothing to do with the Qld election. If this leadership issue was having a deleterious effect on Rudd’s popularity all he would need to do is make an unequivocal statement regarding the leadership.

    This is symptomatic of the disfunctionality of the government. In any other circumstances Rudd would be removed to the backbench. The Prime Minister is paralysed because of the state of the numbers and its polling position.

  31. Ouch! I wonder what is the largest campaign swing ever achieved in Australian politics. I recall reading a thread not long ago that basically claimed 4% as the highest swing during a campaign, but that may be to win. I wonder what the biggest campaign swing may be? Anna sure has her work cut out for her. Bloody Bob Katter is on the rise. If he keeps picking up 1% a week he’ll reach double digits yet.

  32. Steve I didn’t say we don’t care about the economy only that we don’t care about the political spin about the economy. QLD has a struggling fiscal position, debt that’s increasing, loss of our AAA credit rating and a government that has been wasting money on policy bungles. We know what we have now and have decided to try something different. I am not sure the alternative will be a lot better but it’s time to at least find out.

    The Galaxy Poll just confirms that the attacks on Newman personally are being allowed to go through to the keeper.

  33. [I am not sure the alternative will be a lot better but it’s time to at least find out.]

    I lived under them for 30 years and I can assure you they are hopeless.

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