Despite having mostly come too early for the weekend’s excitement, the weekly Essential Research poll has moved away a point from the 54-46 stasis in which it had been locked since December 12, with the Coalition lead now at 55-45. Since Essential is a two-week rolling average, so that only half the poll was conducted over the previous week, this shift is more likely to be meaningful than it would from another pollster, although it’s probably still within the margin of error. Labor is down a point on the primary vote to 33 per cent with the Coalition up one to 48 per cent and the Greens up one to 11 per cent.
Despite the voting intention figures, a series of questions on substantive points of policy shows support for the government’s positions: 53 per cent support means testing the private health insurance rebate against 33 per cent opposed; 56 per cent support the National Broadband Network against 25 per cent opposed, respectively up two and down three since the question was last posed last April; and support for the mining tax is up four points since November to 55 per cent with opposition down five to 28 per cent.
This would mean that the last week has widened out to 56-44.
[Despite the voting intention figures, a series of questions on substantive points of policy shows support for the government’s positions: 53 per cent support means testing the private health insurance rebate against 33 per cent opposed; 56 per cent support the National Broadband Network against 25 per cent opposed, respectively up two and down three since the question was last posed last April; and support for the mining tax is up four points since November to 55 per cent with opposition down five to 28 per cent.]
This says it all as to why Labor should stay the course and ignore the leadership shenanigans that are happening in the MSM and Blogosphere.
[This would mean that the last week has widened out to 56-44.]
or come in to 53-46.
Just watching the Senate Estimates. According to Bill Heffernan, most bureaucrats wouldn’t know what end of a cow it shits out of.
Really? I think all that statement proves is that HE has no idea what end of a human being its brain lives. Or, more specifically, his.
Hyperbole FAIL!
Posted this right at the end of the past thread, but why not:
Well, Grattan’s announced where she stands, unsurprisingly:
If Julia Gillard hangs on, it will be near impossible for her to regroup in the party and she certainly won’t be able to lift the Labor vote much. If Mr Rudd triumphs – the better alternative after all that’s happened – he will find it difficult to unite the government although he would probably get some improvement in the vote.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/labors-rock-and-hard-place-20120219-1th9q.html#ixzz1msyI8vZ6
[This says it all as to why Labor should stay the course and ignore the leadership shenanigans that are happening in the MSM and Blogosphere.]
Correct and after hearing Gillard’s answers to the latest round of leadership questions I’m becoming more convinced she is planning on staying the course and will not call for a spill.
How many times did the PM say “strong support of my caucus colleagues” during that presser? That’s the best indication yet that the Rudd boosters in caucus basically haven’t become any more numerous at all. She also said Rudd had denied Wilkie’s version of the meeting and also denied backgrounding journalists. Sounds like she’s in a pretty strong position and that Rudd is acknowledging the fact. I’ve always thought the Rudd boosting was initiated by a few malcontents in the caucus rather than Rudd himself.
In response to Laura Tingle’s article this morning the Fin Review http://www.afr.com/p/national/vast_ambition_massive_headache_for_2yErFRXT4IeVnYCoKr44tK
Do you believe all schools deserve equal government funding, or should public schools receive more because parents pay small fraction of private school fees to send their child to a public school. Ideally, it does make sense that public schools gain more funding because they don’t gain as much from school fees. It’s hard to say, really.
Gary
And on Rudd – do nothing, do something?
So voters strongly support 3 of the 4 main policies of the current government – private health means test, NBN and mining tax (carbon tax still not supported).
The main portion of the angst is clearly against current leadership and image, as opposed to poicy.
[Gary
And on Rudd – do nothing, do something?]
If it was up to me I would be doing nothing. There is nothing to be gained by calling a spill. Rudd clearly does not have the numbers to win let alone to initiate a spill. Time is on Gillard’s side IMHO.
I thought JG handled that news conference with all the aplomb, strength and courage which has characterized her style from day one. A clear win to the PM.
I would sum up what she said re the questions on Rudd as – “Look, you can focus on that rubbish if you want to, but I have more important things to do”. Exactly what I was hoping she would say.
[The main portion of the angst is clearly against current leadership and image, as opposed to poicy.]
All the angst is in the MSM and political blogs – voter angst or otherwise will come into play when there is an actual election.
[The main portion of the angst is clearly against current leadership and image, as opposed to poicy.]
Err, how about this for an alternate explanation based on those fiqures you’ve supplied. It’s the carbon tax that’s the problem atm.
Wonder what Wilkie is going to say in reply to Rudd!
So the voters overall give a tick to the NBN,PHI and the mining tax with numbers rising for the NBN and MRRT. I wonder if and when this will translate into increased support for the government ? It is the opposition that is out of step with public opinion on all three issues.
Meanwhile the PM should borrow a Paul Hogan quote and tel the Rudd supports. “Come and get me you miserable bastards.”
[Err, how about this for an alternate explanation based on those fiqures you’ve supplied. It’s the carbon tax that’s the problem atm.]
And that’s the one you’d hope gets properly advertised and explained. Which is doable, though there’s a ton of crap they have to counter.
[
Gary
Posted Monday, February 20, 2012 at 1:48 pm @ 6
Correct and after hearing Gillard’s answers to the latest round of leadership questions I’m becoming more convinced she is planning on staying the course and will not call for a spill.
]
The problem with Gillard calling a leadership spill is that Rudd might not contest. Then it’s pretty hard to label him as disloyal.
[53 per cent support means testing the private health insurance rebate against 33 per cent opposed; 56 per cent support the National Broadband Network against 25 per cent opposed, respectively up two and down three since the question was last posed last April; and support for the mining tax is up four points since November to 55 per cent with opposition down five to 28 per cent.]
All of which Abbott has kinda maybe said he’d definitely at some stage or other get rid of.
So what does that say? When it comes down to an election people will vote Labor back in? At this stage people just read the bad headlines and only really thing about things like this closer to an election?
I is confused.
[Err, how about this for an alternate explanation based on those fiqures you’ve supplied. It’s the carbon tax that’s the problem atm.]
It will be interesting if the CT will fall into line with or at least move towards the NBN, PHI and MRRT once the compensation starts flowing in July.
[
ajm
Posted Monday, February 20, 2012 at 1:52 pm @ 7
I’ve always thought the Rudd boosting was initiated by a few malcontents in the caucus rather than Rudd himself.
]
I think Barrie Cassidy put paid to that.
Gary
So if the PM’s strategy is to do nothing, and Rudd doesn’t have the numbers (and by extension won’t challenge in the immediate future) the status quo exists. To what extent do you think (given the MSM fascination with leadership tussles and the obvious points the Oppos can make) maintaining this status quo will be a drag on Labor’s vote? A lot, a little? If a lot, what is likely to happen in say November this year assuming the status quo?
[The problem with Gillard calling a leadership spill is that Rudd might not contest. Then it’s pretty hard to label him as disloyal.]
The only time that Gillard should call for a spill is when she sees the whites of their eyes.
[So what does that say? When it comes down to an election people will vote Labor back in? At this stage people just read the bad headlines and only really thing about things like this closer to an election?]
That’d be plausible. If they’re not thinking about the big issues, the space gets filled by all the media (and other opponents) crud.
Essential seems to be saying on policy and good Government the Government is winning.
On popularity, it is not.
Up to individuals to decide if they believe elections are fought and won on populism or good policies.
bbp
[Unlike some pollbludgers households, Chez Pseph is not a one party state. Once, may be twice, we have voted the same way … and she would not vote for Tony Abbott in a month of Sundays. And a 50s view of the world you have Kezza, if you think it all comes down to a new fridge.]
Sorry if I offended you. Was truly just mucking round. That’s why I put the 😆 there.
Son of foro
[I is confused.]
All will be revealed when the carbon price compo starts to flow and the sky stubbornly refuses to answer Noalition prayers that it fall down upon us. 🙂
[The problem with Gillard calling a leadership spill is that Rudd might not contest. Then it’s pretty hard to label him as disloyal.]
No. It would mean Gillard 103 vs Rudd Zero.
From last thread:
I notice many (here and elsewhere) are good at suffering selective amnesia. Period between pink batts (and Rudd’s lack of support for his minister) and the time he was asked to step down (YES! There was no actual blood or decapitations!) Rudd was tanking because the media smelled the blood and went for it.
Much the same way as they are doing now.
[Rudd clearly does not have the numbers to win let alone to initiate a spill. ]
+1 Gary,
This challenge nonsense will go the same way as every other promise he made or held.
He sounds good, looks OK. Promises sound good when Rudd makes them, but he just can’t deliver.
Rudd couldn’t deliver a newspaper
gloryconsequence @ 10
That has been obvious to anyone except those with closed minds for a long time.
[Up to individuals to decide if they believe elections are fought and won on populism or good policies.]
Good point. Do the 10% who decide elections in this country closely study policy?
Scarpat
[It will be interesting if the CT will fall into line with or at least move towards the NBN, PHI and MRRT once the compensation starts flowing in July.]
I believe the first payments kick off in May, pensioners I think.
Well,well,well
What a disasterous week this has been for the media,after telling all and sundry that the government cant get its message out and the coalition of no consequence along with the media banging on about the ruddstoration for a week 24/7 the polls have relatively remained unchanged,now who cant get there message out and who are the AUSTRALIAN PEOPLE not listening to.Maybe the coalition of no consequence(the barmy army)and the media wanabees have over reached a tad too much an have pissed the Australian people off big time.
The realpoll figures here are what the people approve
Your hardly going to vote for a mob that would tske it away
And have no policies to replace it with would u
So this bit is the real poll
This from Grattan. Gawd:
[
The repeated calls Opposition Leader Tony Abbott has made for an early election are sounding more compelling by the day. Leadership battles are always dirty and traumatic, but to have trashed two leaders and its brand is Labor’s disgrace.]
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/labors-rock-and-hard-place-20120219-1th9q.html#ixzz1mt6n6lhf
[private health means test, NBN and mining tax]
Abbott =
– private health means test : I’LL REVERSE IT AND INCREASE YOUR TAXES
– NBN : I’LL CANCEL IT
– mining tax : I’LL REVERSE IT AND INCREASE YOUR TAXES
– CT : I’LL SCRAP IT AND INCREASE YOUR TAXES TO FUND MY PLAN
It’s not hard to see what Labor’s strategy will be during a campaign.
Gary
[It’s the carbon tax that’s the problem atm.]
Until the “anti-carbon tax saturation-hysteria that Australia will die” ceases, from both the Coalition and the msm, and when the electorate realises they are not paying it themselves (der!) but are in fact being compensated for any price passed on by those companies that are – then we won’t see a change in voter sentiment.
If Rudd has promised a watering down of the carbon price – which means all the legislation that accompanies it will have to be watered down too – as a carrot for a return to the leadership, then he’s a bigger dill that I thought.
Be patient. Wait till the compensation starts rolling out in May, and then the price starting July 1 – and then let’s see that (a) the sky hasn’t fall in and (b) the electorate will realise they’ve been had by the msm and the Coalition.
[Rudd was tanking because the media smelled the blood and went for it.]
…in the same way they would attack him again if he became PM.
[Up to individuals to decide if they believe elections are fought and won on populism or good policies.]
GG,
The challenge for the Government is to make good policy populist. On this poll it appears that it is doing so with the NBN, PHI and MRRT. On the fourth policy, CT, it has a very good possibility of doing so when the compensation comes in. There is nothing more popular than the hip-pocket and it is the Coalition which is threatening to remove that compensation from voters’ pockets.
[He sounds good, looks OK. Promises sound good when Rudd makes them, but he just can’t deliver.]
Labor still has to deliver the NDIS and now the Gonski review findings. Two critical reforms which would go nowhere under a Rudd leadership.
[I believe the first payments kick off in May, pensioners I think.]
poroti,
Thanks. Even better from the Government’s point of view.
Scarps
[ This would mean that the last week has widened out to 56-44.
or come in to 53-46.]
ER was reset over Xmas and had a one week sample initially then the usual two weekly average. They have all been 54-46 so this one has to have been 56-44.
Cannist think so
My fervant wish is for all news papers and those connected to lose their jobs.
It is self full filling, i think the people have had enough.
Perhaps the tim l ag is about three months or more
Behind us here because we see all head lines.
Are the public ctaching up to us,
Rudd big mistake is makng videos of himself
And twitter knowledge
We have get in to the ear of every minster
On twitter,
We know 98 per ent are loyal but they all should be told a vote for rudd is a lost vote in the election
From us.
[Rudd will do the right thing by the party, call for a ballot, and then get his sorry arse onto the backbench.]
I think you mean Gillard not the party. The best thing for the party is a change of leadership and to somebody who most likely to repair the electoral damage.
They are now trying to bait Rudd into challenging in the hope that an early challenge would save Gillard. But if a change of leadership is the best option then he shouldn’t challenge until he has more certainty being successful first up. That means waiting more time and watch Gillard sink in the polls and continue to struggle.
It is not good for the party to have an unsuccessful challenge as that would most certainly mortally wound Gillard, and require another challenge at a later date make Labor sink even lower in the polls… All far more messy than now.
Rudd does not have to go to the back bench, in fact if he challenged and lost then he should make Gillard sack him to the backbench. That would be more beneficial to Rudd’s cause and the cause of creating a leadership change later. As that would make it twice she would have sacked him.
Those hoping for a budget bounce from the carbon tax are living in lala land. Costello is still waiting for his. And of course the Libs will blame everything on the carbon tax.
If Rudd is reasonably sure he has a goodly number of supporters then he could challenge now, knowing that everybody will see that Gillard is a gonna, damaged political goods.
Gillard supporters are of course hoping Rudd will do the things that hurt him most.
Also love the level of hypocrisy around the place. All these wonderful words like traitor, disloyal, for the good of the party…… yet they never have to be applied to Gillard and her team. They are only relevant when it is Rudd.
Frankly if people here were genuine Labor supporters wanting the best chance of wining the next election then they would know a leadership change is a must, and earlier the better, and that the candidate most likely to succeed is Rudd.
Gratan would only be read by dreaming liberals
This from Hartcher:
[
Most Australians are well disposed to the man. He would be returning to the prime ministership by popular acclamation. It’s basic human psychology that you’ll give a friend a lot of leeway, even if he sometimes blunders.
The only real damage to Rudd in the public’s estimation is the damage he has inflicted on himself. The fatal decision of his prime ministership was to defer his emissions trading scheme. This was a clear breach of promise to the people. His popularity fractured.
As he returns, in all likelihood, to the prime ministership in the weeks ahead, this is the most important lesson for Rudd to remember. The good opinion of the Australian people is his best asset. His most serious liability will not be his enemies but potential lapses of his judgment.]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/threepart-gift-only-kevin-can-stop-kevin-20120219-1th8w.html#ixzz1mt932gu3
[So if the PM’s strategy is to do nothing, and Rudd doesn’t have the numbers (and by extension won’t challenge in the immediate future) the status quo exists. To what extent do you think (given the MSM fascination with leadership tussles and the obvious points the Oppos can make) maintaining this status quo will be a drag on Labor’s vote? A lot, a little? If a lot, what is likely to happen in say November this year assuming the status quo?]
Lynchpin, my theory is that the carbon tax is the biggest drag on Labor’s vote. What is happening now with the leadership kerfuffle will continue, if nothing is done, at a lower level. If over time it becomes plain that Gillard is the problem and not the carbon tax then a change of leadership could be considered. Now is not the time IMHO.
Scarpat,
Changing Leadership now would indicate that there was something wrong with the policies. It’s like last time. When Rudd was deposed the Government could never run on their record.
As they say, history repeats. First as tragedy and then as farce.
I should add that that movement is within the MOE so I’m not reading anything into it.