Nielsen: 53-47 to Coalition

It seems Nielsen’s sample of 1400 respondents from its first opinion poll of the year didn’t get the memo: the poll has the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead at 53-47, which although not brilliant for the government in absolute terms is its best result from Nielsen since March last year. The same applies for the primary vote, on which Labor is at 33 per cent, while the Coalition is on 45 per cent and the Greens are on 13 per cent. This looks particularly good for Labor if you compare it with the most recent result from the same pollster, as the media so likes to do. That poll, which was published on December 11, had Labor at 29 per cent, the Coalition at 49 per cent and the Greens at 11 per cent, with two-party preferred at 57-43. Labor’s relatively strong showing has been driven by a quirky looking result from the Victorian component of the poll, which has Labor leading 55-45 – essentially the same as the 2010 election result, and better for them than at any Nielsen poll since. The Victorian component accounts for 330 respondents and has a margin of error of 5.4 per cent; the results for the other states should emerge tomorrow. The margin of error for the poll as a whole, which as always with Nielsen was conducted from Thursday to Saturday, is 2.6 per cent.

Even better for Labor so far as tomorrow’s headlines are concerned is an eight-point improvement in Julia Gillard’s net personal rating and a six-point improvement as preferred prime minister. Gillard’s approval is up five on the previous poll to 40 per cent and her disapproval is down three to 55 per cent, and she has shot to a 48-46 lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister after trailing 46-42 last time. These results are very similar to the November poll, and the shifts probably represent a correction on an aberrant result in December. That Gillard has gained six points on preferred prime minister without taking a chunk out of Abbott’s rating is curious, and calls attention to the much lower undecided rating Nielsen produces on this question (ranging from 6 per cent to 12 per cent since the election) compared with Newspoll (15 per cent to 25 per cent). Tony Abbott’s personal ratings meanwhile are essentially unchanged: approval steady on 41 per cent, and disapproval up one to 54 per cent (his equal worst results from Nielsen on both counts).

One fly in the ointment for Gillard is that Nielsen has, reasonably enough, put her head-to-head with Kevin Rudd as preferred Labor leader, with Rudd predictably holding a commanding 57 per cent to 35 per cent lead. However, even this is a much better result for Gillard than when the question was last asked at Labor’s polling nadir in October, when Rudd led 61 per cent to 30 per cent.

Numbers, it almost goes without saying, courtesy of GhostWhoVotes. UPDATE: Full tables, including state breakdowns and such, here.

UPDATE: Essential Research once again has the two-party vote at 54-46, as it has in every poll since December 12 (and not since September has it failed to produce a result of either 54-46 or 55-45). Labor however has dropped a point on the primary vote for the second week in a row, now at 33 per cent (their weakest result since October 24), with the Coalition steady on 47 per cent and the Greens up a point to 11 per cent. A question on the government’s industrial relations regime finds 24 per cent believing it favours workers, 25 per cent believing it favours employers and 34 per cent finding it balances the interests of both, which would be a very pleasing set of numbers from the government’s point of view. The poll also has 15 per cent of respondents saying Australian workers are “very productive” and 59 per cent “quite productive”. Also canvassed was trust in various public institutions, which has the Australian Defence Force on top. Curiously, the least trusted out of those included were “business and banking regulators”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,161 comments on “Nielsen: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  2. [well I leave for some dinner and what happens when I return? The Fibs eating eggs. Well I never….]

    eggs now most likely picked by workers on a decent wage. What happened to the lib dream of prosperity built on the backs of cheep economic slaves on work place agreements, blahhh. Its all Rudds faults.

  6. rummel, all is not lost – plenty of time left to make serfchoices palatable to the bogans. They have not abandoned the Rabbott… yet

  9. As long as Rudd remains Foreign Minister, that’ll do for me.
    I’m ambivalent about Julia, but if this signals the beginning of the end for an Abbott Government – all good.

  10. victoria…amen to that….:)

    Looking forward to some lively policy focussed discussions here in the coming months……from both sides…

  11. [geeksrulz: Is Bailieu Broken? #springst RT @GhostWhoVotes: #Nielsen Poll Federal 2 Party Preferred in VIC: ALP 55 (+7) L/NP 45 (-7) #auspol]

  12. [plenty of time left to make serfchoices palatable to the bogans.]

    We will just lie then say “well you knew this was always our aim”.

  13. [#Nielsen Poll Primary Votes: ALP 33 (+4) L/NP 45 (-4) GRN 13 (+2)]

    Tomorrow morning’s opposition get together:

    Tony Abbott: “For Christ’s sake! On the very day I exhumed Workchoices we get this result! What will the polls look like once that monster starts to strut the stage?”

    Julie Bishop: “You really are a dickhead Tony.”

    Joe Hockey: “And this calculator still says 70B_error_overload. What the fuck does that mean?

  14. YES! I will take credit for 0.07% of that result 😛 It is probably an outlier and about time I say! If Essential is 46/54 tomorrow then we might conclude the media storm isn’t having much of an affect.

    Can’t wait to see how the media will justify their continued ride on the Ruddstoration express.

  15. [Last Nielsen was an obvious outlier in the coalition’s favour. Nielsen has moved broadly back into line with what all the other polls are saying.

    Gillard is lucky the last nielsen was an outlier and that most people are incapable of analysing the significance of poll movements correctly.]

    An excellent point, which perfectly reflects the one I was making at the very same time while I updated my post.

  16. Interesting I am not sure if this is a common trend but it seems whenever a party has been beaten up in the media the following polls improve for them.

    I recall about early last year Tone having a shocker with the P.B crowd expecting a leadership challenge yet his polls improved and it appears that the same as occurred here.

  18. [New2This
    Posted Sunday, February 5, 2012 at 11:37 pm | Permalink

    “Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s BBQ party strikes a snag as Labor leadership speculation continues”

    “MORE than 20 MPs including senior cabinet ministers Simon Crean, Stephen Smith and Martin Ferguson failed to show at Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s special caucus meeting yesterday as speculation continued her leadership was crumbling.”]

    Unless you have a link to support this nonsense, which it appears you appear to dispense regardless of truth I suggest you are now in the realms of requiring assistance for your affliction. Better take leave from here, idiots we can stand, fools are beyond tolerance.

  24. David

    [Unless you have a link to support this nonsense, which it appears you appear to dispense regardless of truth I suggest you are now in the realms of requiring assistance for your affliction. Better take leave from here, idiots we can stand, fools are beyond tolerance.]

    You seem to be taking the appointment as PB deputy sherif quite well

  30. [markjs
    Posted Sunday, February 5, 2012 at 11:40 pm | Permalink
    Some PBers will love this Tweet from @zombiemao:

    …“Michelle Grattan must be spinning in her grave….”]

    That’s superlative 😆

    Tom Hawkins
    Love the satire of the Fibs meeting tomorrow

    Victoria
    good to see you back on deck, thought you may have been at the hospital

    posting all at once cos keep getting the posting too quick bizzo.

    check you all tomorrow

  31. Oh dear how will auntie jack er Michelle G spin this tomorrow…
    “Well on the one hand it could be good for labor but on the other hand…”

  34. [According to Katharine,…]

    These slack arse journalists sit by the phone and wait for a call from Martin or whoever and then froth all over their keyboards about the demise of a government. What a sad lot they have become. Too busy texting and twittering with each other and not enough time spent on talking to real people.

  36. TH

    Katharine’s piece is quite remarkable. Is there something they truly do see that we dont? As far as she is concerned no matter what Labor do, they are doomed

  37. [James J
    Posted Sunday, February 5, 2012 at 11:23 pm | Permalink

    Last Nielsen was an obvious outlier in the coalition’s favour. Nielsen has moved broadly back into line with what all the other polls are saying.

    Gillard is lucky the last nielsen was an outlier and that most people are incapable of analysing the significance of poll movements correctly. ]

    Don’t always agree with you James J, but in this case think you’re spot on. One interesting thing is that the fallout with Wilkie, so seemingly troublesome among insiders, may actually have helped Gillard and Labor. Similarly a little distancing from the Greens has not done any harm.

    As the positives get more mention in the coming year, I’d expect a lot more emphasis on this government’s achievements reflecting Labor values.

  38. New2This..perhaps you should comprehend the difference between personal abuse and questioning stupid statements..I asked you to provide a link to your statement…

    [New2This
    Posted Sunday, February 5, 2012 at 11:37 pm | Permalink

    “Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s BBQ party strikes a snag as Labor leadership speculation continues”

    “MORE than 20 MPs including senior cabinet ministers Simon Crean, Stephen Smith and Martin Ferguson failed to show at Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s special caucus meeting yesterday as speculation continued her leadership was crumbling.”]

    You have not, therefore you are lying..rummel note, perfectly simple request, no stupidity about deputy sherif, stop being childish, you have made a fool of yourself already this evening.

  39. [Oh dear how will auntie jack er Michelle G spin this tomorrow…]

    I dont think they can. Its great for Gillard, ok for the greens ans shit for Libs. They only saving grace is it will force Kev and his mates to leak again and hard. After all there stirring they could not possible let Gillard right her self and sail off to the next election. Im going for a massive leak to cover this little blemish right over.

  40. Someone is challenged for not providing a source for an anti Labor comment and this is what they post

    [Oops point taken… Daily Telegraph]

    Now that is hilarious

  41. [rummel note, perfectly simple request, no stupidity about deputy sherif, stop being childish, you have made a fool of yourself already this evening.]

    You know i enjoy it when you go on and on.

  42. I don’t see why putting up with 2 months of constant pressure because of an outlying poll is “lucky”. It is like arguing that my headache is much better since I stopped hitting myself with the hammer

  45. Re Victoria and “Big Ted ”
    ________
    I’ve no doubt that Bailleu is a dud and slowly annoying key groups…nurses/teachers.environmentalists/and parents groups too.. with cuts and changes in all sorts of services
    Hardly a week passes that he does not lose some interest group

    and he is nice but dull…and some say he is pretty lazy
    …and his cabinet has a rare collectiuon of dullards..and it’s said that his most senior minister Louse Ascher(Dpt Leader of the Libs) was “tired and emotional:”on the infamous night last year when she”overslept” in her office and missed a vital vote…He has only a one seat majority when the Speaker is in the Chair…Louise is said to worry some in the Cabinet with being a bit to”tired and emotional”..on too many evenings

    The Nats leader Ryan is very agressive and makes the hard demands and some Libs seem his as a real pain
    The Nats will not help the Libs in urban areas where they are unpopular and don’t care if they irrate the Melbourne voters…as they are now doing
    Victorians are of course ..as is well known…more sophisticated than say Q’Landers / and those in WA… and find these hicks a real joke.
    Ted had better be cautious … beware …Melbourne is the real heartland of the “liberal-left” in Australian politics and that group is now stirring,and are not happy with Ted
    One has only to read the letters in The Age(Perish Gina Reinhard! perish)to see this is happening
    Bailleau denounced Brumby and the smart meters.transport difficulties and the Myiki system…and has now embraced them all

  50. [rummel
    Posted Sunday, February 5, 2012 at 11:59 pm | Permalink

    rummel note, perfectly simple request, no stupidity about deputy sherif, stop being childish, you have made a fool of yourself already this evening.

    You know i enjoy it when you go on and on.]

    You are the dispenser of misinformation, you refused to answer your accusation re the PM’s office deliberately trying to cause a racist riot…its in the memory bank Rummel you are spineless.

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