Morgan phone poll: 55-45 to Coalition

Three new poll results from Roy Morgan, if you please. Despite its modest sample of 543 and high margin of error of over 4 per cent, the phone poll conducted over the past two nights is the most interesting, both for its currency and for the fact that phone polling has a clearly superior track record to Morgan’s Labor-biased face-to-face polls. Averaging Morgan’s phone poll results back to May gives almost the exact same result as for Newspoll, although the smaller samples mean Morgan has been more erratic from poll to poll.

The latest result is within the margins of recent results from other pollsters, although slightly at the Coalition end of the scale: their two-party lead is 55-45 compared with most others’ 54-46, with primary votes of 31 per cent for Labor, 46.5 per cent for the Coalition and 12 per cent for the Greens. The phone poll does not replicate the issue I keep going on about of Morgan’s face-to-face polling producing wildly different results according to whether preferences are distributed as per the result of the last election or according to respondents’ stated intentions. It instead gives us 55-45 on respondent-allocated and 55.5-44.5 on previous-election, and thus chimes with this week’s Nielsen which in fact had Labor’s share of preferences slightly higher than at the election.

Speaking of which, Morgan has published not one but two sets of face-to-face figures. Normally Morgan either publishes results from its regular weekend polling the following Friday (or occasionally Thursday), but sometimes it holds off for a week and publishes a result a combined result from two weekends. This time they have held off for a week and published separate results for each weekend. The earlier poll, conducted on January 28/29 (Australia Day having been the preceding Thursday), was remarkably positive for Labor: not only did they maintain their lead on the previous-election (51-49) method from the result published a fortnight ago, they also opened a lead on the respondent-allocated measure (50.5-49.5), which for once looked similar to the previous election result. The primary votes were 39.5 per cent for Labor, 41.5 per cent for the Coalition and 10 per cent for the Greens.

However, the polling on February 4/5 told a somewhat different story, with the Coalition up four points to 45.5 per cent, Labor down one to 38.5 per cent and the Greens down half to 9.5 per cent. This panned out to a 53.5-46.5 lead to the Coalition on respondent-allocated preferences and 51.5-48.5 on previous election. The polls individually had a sample of 1000 and theoretically a margin of error of around 3 per cent. However, the more telling point is how much Morgan face-to-face results continue to differ from other series which have consistently proved nearer the mark. In 2011, the average primary vote for Labor in Morgan was 35.9 per cent, compared with 34.1 per cent for Essential Research, 30.7 per cent for Newspoll and 29.5 per cent for Nielsen. The gap between Essential and the latter two is partly accounted for by Essential having a consistently lower result for the Greens: on two-party preferred, Essential and Newspoll were fairly similar.

For a look at the bigger polling picture, Possum surveys a landscape of flat calm 54-46 polling going back to November.

UPDATE (13/2): Another week, another 54-46 Essential Research result. After losing a point on the primary vote over each of the two previous weeks, Labor is back up one to 34 per cent, with the Greens down one to 10 per cent and the Coalition steady on 47 per cent. Essential’s monthly measure of leadership approval finds both leaders’ personal ratings essentially unchanged – Julia Gillard down one on approval to 36 per cent and up one on disapproval to 53 per cent, Tony Abbott steady on 35 per cent and up two to 53 per cent – but Gillard has nonetheless made a solid gain as preferred prime minister, her lead up from 39-36 to 41-34. However, only 31 per cent expect her to lead Labor to the next election against 47 per cent who said they didn’t (hats off to the 22 per cent who admitted they didn’t know); while for Tony Abbott the numbers were 47 per cent and 25 per cent. A question on government control of media ownership has support for more control and less control tied on 24 per cent, with 34 per cent thinking it about right. There’s also a question on the impact of Gina Rinehart on the independence of Fairfax newspapers, which I personally find a little odd – the issue would mean little outside of New South Wales and Victoria. I also had my doubts about the question on whether Australia is “fair and just”, but the question asking for comparison with other countries is interesting: Canada and New Zealand are seen as Australia’s main partners in freedom, the UK does less well, Japan and France less well again, and the United States worse still. China however sits well below the rest of the field.

We also had a teaser last night from Newspoll, which had Abbott favoured over Gillard for economic management 43 per cent to 34 per cent, and Wayne Swan and Joe Hockey in a statistical dead heat for preferred Treasurer (38 per cent to 37 per cent).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,682 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  1. So.. When do we see the four corners expose of Abootts grubby and illegitimate coup and all the nastiness in the fiberal parFty…

  2. [blackburnpseph
    Posted Monday, February 13, 2012 at 10:57 pm | Permalink

    And I imagine that Janelle Saffin’s prospects of career advancement under a Gillard administration just nosedived very sharply

    Janelle Saffin is no youngster so career advancement might not be an important factor – she has been highly spoken of on this blog many times – so telling it how it is and representing her constituents well might be more important.]

    Agree. TLM has misread that appearance and interview. The inference can be drawn that she did not support the coup. But she didn’t spell it out. Nor has she complained regarding the current government. She is a good local MP who looks after her constituents.

  3. [Consistent with Morgan phone poll. Seems a movement away from the Govt is on again.]

    ey? It’s a 1 point movement – are you kidding?

  4. [george
    Posted Monday, February 13, 2012 at 11:25 pm | Permalink
    Within MOE. No change.]

    True George, but perhaps it kills off this “move back to the ALP” meme here which has not been supported by the poll results.

  5. [True George, but perhaps it kills off this “move back to the ALP” meme here which has not been supported by the poll results.]

    We are years away from an election Mod, it’s the only thing I’m interested. Not to say I wouldn’t prefer the polls to tighten, but we’re in government.

  6. [And Labor will never get anywhere while Bill Shorten, Mark Arbib, David Feeney & Don Farrell call the shots.]

    All these people “called the shots” in 2007 when Rudd was leader.

    You seem to be arguing that Labor’s win in 2007 was not about anything Labor did, and more about the staleness of the Howard govt.

    And in any case, why do you care? By your own admission at that horrendous Facebook site, you vote Liberal.

  7. Mod Lib –

    but perhaps it kills off this “move back to the ALP” meme here which has not been supported by the poll results.

    Oh, so going from 59-41 to 55-45 isn’t a “move back to the ALP”?

  8. I guess we can expect next another leak to the newspapers meant to damage the Foreign Minister – how Julia’s puppetmasters operate.

  9. [#Newspoll Preferred PM: Gillard 37 (-3) Abbott 40 (+3) #auspol]

    That is just incredible (and against Abbott?!). Suggests a further movement away from Labor may occur, as this poll may be indicating.

    Dangerous thing for Gillard is public fatigue at her trials and tribulations, the public may just get entirely fed up with her altogether. The latest revelations re 4Corners aint going to help any at all.

    Guess they will be running ultra hard on the economy from here on.

  10. [4624

    …..the MRRT will invite extreme and vicious attempts to destabilise.]

    Probably not, Gwen. The MRRT is welcomed on the whole by commentators and business in the non-resources sector. The Liberals have opposed it because they don’t have the first clue about what else to say or do. But in general, taxing resource extraction is widely supported – it is really only a question of how it is done. The off-shore oil and gas industry has been subject to resources rent tax for decades. Taxing bulk mineral exports is equally unremarkable. There are negative consequences for the finances of the mineral-heavy States, but opinion leaders in business don’t care much about that. What they really want is for the mining industry to contribute a bit more to the revenue, to be just a bit less successful and other sectors of the economy to get a reprieve from the high AUD.

  11. The 37-40 in favour of Abbott is disappointing but not unexpected, though I think gaining only three points by all the propping-up that Abbott gets must be a disappointment for the Fibs.

  12. Andrew Watson @Andy_Downunda

    I am now paying no more attention to any #Newspoll results. They are totally inconsistent & provide no basis for reliable analysis. #auspol

  13. Newspoll figures will inevitably mean Rudd and his coterie will start leaking to the msm again, and his cheersquad will return.

    What did I say about the fortnightly Newspoll stirring the hopes and dreams of the Rudd Cult?! 😆

  14. Newspoll for News Ltd, as reliable as Judas the Apostles loyalty to JC. Give us a result Martin that suits our present agenda. You will be rewarded accordingly, O’Shaughnessy regards himself as a media star, have a listen to all electronic media in morning.

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