Morgan phone poll: 55-45 to Coalition

Three new poll results from Roy Morgan, if you please. Despite its modest sample of 543 and high margin of error of over 4 per cent, the phone poll conducted over the past two nights is the most interesting, both for its currency and for the fact that phone polling has a clearly superior track record to Morgan’s Labor-biased face-to-face polls. Averaging Morgan’s phone poll results back to May gives almost the exact same result as for Newspoll, although the smaller samples mean Morgan has been more erratic from poll to poll.

The latest result is within the margins of recent results from other pollsters, although slightly at the Coalition end of the scale: their two-party lead is 55-45 compared with most others’ 54-46, with primary votes of 31 per cent for Labor, 46.5 per cent for the Coalition and 12 per cent for the Greens. The phone poll does not replicate the issue I keep going on about of Morgan’s face-to-face polling producing wildly different results according to whether preferences are distributed as per the result of the last election or according to respondents’ stated intentions. It instead gives us 55-45 on respondent-allocated and 55.5-44.5 on previous-election, and thus chimes with this week’s Nielsen which in fact had Labor’s share of preferences slightly higher than at the election.

Speaking of which, Morgan has published not one but two sets of face-to-face figures. Normally Morgan either publishes results from its regular weekend polling the following Friday (or occasionally Thursday), but sometimes it holds off for a week and publishes a result a combined result from two weekends. This time they have held off for a week and published separate results for each weekend. The earlier poll, conducted on January 28/29 (Australia Day having been the preceding Thursday), was remarkably positive for Labor: not only did they maintain their lead on the previous-election (51-49) method from the result published a fortnight ago, they also opened a lead on the respondent-allocated measure (50.5-49.5), which for once looked similar to the previous election result. The primary votes were 39.5 per cent for Labor, 41.5 per cent for the Coalition and 10 per cent for the Greens.

However, the polling on February 4/5 told a somewhat different story, with the Coalition up four points to 45.5 per cent, Labor down one to 38.5 per cent and the Greens down half to 9.5 per cent. This panned out to a 53.5-46.5 lead to the Coalition on respondent-allocated preferences and 51.5-48.5 on previous election. The polls individually had a sample of 1000 and theoretically a margin of error of around 3 per cent. However, the more telling point is how much Morgan face-to-face results continue to differ from other series which have consistently proved nearer the mark. In 2011, the average primary vote for Labor in Morgan was 35.9 per cent, compared with 34.1 per cent for Essential Research, 30.7 per cent for Newspoll and 29.5 per cent for Nielsen. The gap between Essential and the latter two is partly accounted for by Essential having a consistently lower result for the Greens: on two-party preferred, Essential and Newspoll were fairly similar.

For a look at the bigger polling picture, Possum surveys a landscape of flat calm 54-46 polling going back to November.

UPDATE (13/2): Another week, another 54-46 Essential Research result. After losing a point on the primary vote over each of the two previous weeks, Labor is back up one to 34 per cent, with the Greens down one to 10 per cent and the Coalition steady on 47 per cent. Essential’s monthly measure of leadership approval finds both leaders’ personal ratings essentially unchanged – Julia Gillard down one on approval to 36 per cent and up one on disapproval to 53 per cent, Tony Abbott steady on 35 per cent and up two to 53 per cent – but Gillard has nonetheless made a solid gain as preferred prime minister, her lead up from 39-36 to 41-34. However, only 31 per cent expect her to lead Labor to the next election against 47 per cent who said they didn’t (hats off to the 22 per cent who admitted they didn’t know); while for Tony Abbott the numbers were 47 per cent and 25 per cent. A question on government control of media ownership has support for more control and less control tied on 24 per cent, with 34 per cent thinking it about right. There’s also a question on the impact of Gina Rinehart on the independence of Fairfax newspapers, which I personally find a little odd – the issue would mean little outside of New South Wales and Victoria. I also had my doubts about the question on whether Australia is “fair and just”, but the question asking for comparison with other countries is interesting: Canada and New Zealand are seen as Australia’s main partners in freedom, the UK does less well, Japan and France less well again, and the United States worse still. China however sits well below the rest of the field.

We also had a teaser last night from Newspoll, which had Abbott favoured over Gillard for economic management 43 per cent to 34 per cent, and Wayne Swan and Joe Hockey in a statistical dead heat for preferred Treasurer (38 per cent to 37 per cent).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,682 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  1. blackburnpseph@4549,

    I take your point although I think it is fairly obvious “ourselves” meant Labor supporters not everyone on this forum, as I mentioned in the beginning of that tirade. I don’t know why people of other political persuasion would participate in a Rudd/Gillard supporters’ war of words except for mischief making.

  4. Am I correct that Con’s seat was Bowman, and he lost it to Andre Lamming in the 2001 or 2004 election?
    If so, he’s really not the best person to be giving Kevin Rudd career advice. 😆

  5. [She didn’t win the election…the Independents and Greens won her the election in the end.]
    Let me get this straight, she didn’t win but she won in the end?

  6. Abbott said there were 6 former Liberal PMs and 6 LOTO who weren’t PMs:
    PMs = Menzies Holt McMahon Gorton Fraser Howard
    LOTO = Sneddon Peacock Nelson Turnbull Abbott

    who am I missing?

  7. [And I imagine that Janelle Saffin’s prospects of career advancement under a Gillard administration just nosedived very sharply]

    Janelle Saffin is no youngster so career advancement might not be an important factor – she has been highly spoken of on this blog many times – so telling it how it is and representing her constituents well might be more important.

  8. [shame on you Glen for focusing the way she looks. shame, shame, shame]

    Finns you cries of shame are as spurious as your bipartisan nature.

  9. TLM thinks he looks more like a leader than Julia. Right. Could he at least put his suit trousers back on and try that again?

  10. @GS/4597,

    You Mean Labor’s Majority, remember, how many spots there are in Parliament House ?

    And it was RUDD that lost that Majority, not Gillard.

    You’re forgetting the endless restless from Coalition.

    What you and other’s are doing is just using excuses, to cover up BS.

  11. [Julia Gillard, Bill Shorten, Mark Arbib, Don Farrell, David Feeney, Richo, Con Scacca – what a treacherous lot they all are.]

    All of whom backed Rudd to knife Beazley in 2006. Treacherous lot indeed.

  12. Van Onselen on twitter baiting ghost who votes to release the newspoll

    Last time he did this, it was released midnight. And vanOnselen would now the result, hence the crowing. I’d say 54/46.

  13. Mod Lib in which state and electorate do you live?
    How would you describe your self politically as a so called Lib supporter?
    Why do you participate on this blog when your participation is not really about polling related issues?
    Mod Lib it is pretty obvious by now that the Libs have a rusted on minimum of 47% of the primary vote as a coalition and it is almost impossible to not win from that position as any pseph would know yet you personal positions do not reflect that scenario. Why is that?
    Good evening messes Sparrow and Rummel I am assuming you are awaiting a Newspoll that reflects at least a 54 to 46 scenario therefore, generating a significant pressure level to the other side.
    Can you imagine how Kevin and Therese must be feeling right now sitting at home hoping for a dreadful Newspoll from a Labor perspective and therefore implementing the next stage of the strategy.

  14. [Let me get this straight, she didn’t win but she won in the end?]

    Peter Hartcher doesn’t believe she won the election either, which I guess means we’re living in a parallel universe. 😛

  16. Its interesting how 4 corners when giving a potted history of Rudd totally skipped over the fact that his polls slumped months beforr Copenhagen due to the media beat up over batts etc… curious…

  18. [Van Onselen on twitter baiting ghost who votes to release the newspoll

    Last time he did this, it was released midnight. And vanOnselen would now the result, hence the crowing. I’d say 54/46.]

    I’d say you’re putting 2 and 2 together and getting 71

  19. The problem confronting the small band from the conservative cheer squad who turn up here, is that the narrative is not working for them at all.

    Despite months and months of “her days are numbered” coming from this mob, and a lot of the msm, the “end days” have not come. Try as they may, here and elsewhere to make it happen, it just has not.

    This is very galling for them as they belong to the school of “If my argument is weak, shout!”

    Was it just two weeks ago the Channel 7 News screamed “Gillard’s leadership crisis worsens”? This was before the PM so-say had a good week last week.

    Sobering for the progressive side is the fact that, there is still 5% of voters out there who while they find Gillard not to their liking do not want Abbott at any price. They are parking their vote with the conservatives and it is not until these come back that an election win in 2013 is on the cards. This is the point Poss has made elsewhere – the languishing 2PP.

    The only thing Labor can do is stay in power. Nothing else matters.

    The Gillard-Rudd thing will dog both of them but it does not mean political death for either or both.

    Lots of politicians have come back from far worse situations – Mr 18% for instance with the comment of “Who would ever vote for this man?” at the time for that “lying rodent” JWH.

    As I keep saying, the hardest problem Labor has is actually securing a third term. The current Labor regime is the third longest at the Federal level.

    The huge saving grace is that the conservatives actually have nothing at all to offer the Oz electorate other than nostalgia. Fortunately for Labor too, with Abbott as leader, a hugely despised, mistrusted and unstable individual, all things are possible for Labor – but it must be later rather than sooner.

    It is for that reason whether polls are up or down now, the trend is towards the up. It is this the conservatives really fear.

    It is for this reason the baying of the conservative jackals has been so loud in the last few weeks.

  24. I don’t want to say much – just passing through – all this leadership stuff is dead boring – but does anyone really think that anyone sitting in the PM’s chair, pushing through this huge reform agenda, would get any different from the media?

    I have been expecting total war on the Labor government in the next few months. It is already too late for the Carbon Tax but the MRRT will invite extreme and vicious attempts to destabilise. It is time to batten down the hatches and stop falling for every sleight of the spin doctor’s hands, folks.

    Instead I think of how wondrous it is that despite all the BS the trend is moving in the right direction. Anecdotes are fairly useless but my old very Liberal uncle praises Julia Gillard for her courage in pushing through climate change laws and thinks it is time every one stopped being nasty. This all has a way to go yet.

    Anyway – off to fight a few dragons…

  28. [Gillard is a puppet of the hacks and union bosses.

    She was prepared to deal with Rudd then spoke to Bitar and his mates then came back in and said no deal. They knew that if Gillard did a deal with Rudd the bosses and factional hacks would have been destroyed by Rudd.]

    Abbott is a puppet of the hacks and Menzies House.

    He was prepared to deal with Turnbull and then spoke to Minchin and his mates then came back in and said no deal. They knew if Abbott saw out the deal with Turnbull and Rudd on the CPRS, then the Howard years would’ve been well and truly consigned to the past by Turnbull’s pragmatism.

  29. [I’d say 56/44 to Coalition]

    Even though you can’t stand Abbott. 😀

    Probably more likely 54-46 or 55-45, that seems to be where all of the polls are converging right now.

  30. On Skynews TV there was a passing mention of a falling behind in PPM, and of a 10 pt TPP difference, so it would be 55-45.

    I actually think the real position is 54-46 as per regular Essentials, so this is in MOE, but it will get a run as a fall no doubt.

  34. [stanny
    Posted Monday, February 13, 2012 at 10:58 pm | Permalink
    Mod Lib in which state and electorate do you live?
    How would you describe your self politically as a so called Lib supporter?]

    I live in Sydney

    [Why do you participate on this blog when your participation is not really about polling related issues?]

    Huh?

    [Mod Lib it is pretty obvious by now that the Libs have a rusted on minimum of 47% of the primary vote as a coalition and it is almost impossible to not win from that position as any pseph would know yet you personal positions do not reflect that scenario. Why is that?]

    Why am I not over the moon and gloating? Is that what you are asking? Yes, I am enjoying the trauma the ALP is going through but I honestly don’t want Abbott as PM. Once Turnbull takes over then I start gloating about the poll leads!!!! 🙂

  35. [now i know why they hated Rudd the factional hacks could not get their way. And look how all the hacks were rewarded in the Cabinet reshuffle. Any wonder they do not want to go back to Rudd their positions and wage rises will dissappear if Rudd becomes leader.]

    I find it quite humorous and damning of many here and there that they think it is OK to knife the Prime Minister because they don’t like his personality. Those poor precious petals, big bad Rudd bullied them, swore at them….and they were shaking at the knees so much they couldn’t think what to do except knife him.

    Honestly pathetic.

    I’m with those that say Rudd trampled on the ego of those who thought it was their right to run the government, poor little factional low lifes. Well I guess they got their girl, almost lost an election and look like heading to a long time in opposition as they return to factional square one. Seems Rudd was an opportunity to bust that little game….but ‘they’ had (as is now obvious), different ideas a long time before hand, and just waited for the slightest of opportunities.

    Ms Gillard’s hands are not free of the blood of factional treachery. But I gather she is more malleable for the faction and the US – poor Palestine.

  36. [Abbott is a puppet of the hacks and Menzies House.]

    He’s also a puppet of the think tanks, shock jocks, Murdoch hacks, Rodent Howard, George Pell, the late BA Santamaria, mining fat cats, big vested interest lobby groups, One Notion-type flat-earthers, Tea Party tactics, etc. Notice the one group that’s missing from the list: The Australian public.

  39. [Gary Sparrow
    Posted Monday, February 13, 2012 at 10:51 pm | Permalink

    I feel sorry for the Labor MP who phoned Con to tell him to help Rudd out only to be told he was for Ms Gillard. How pissed would you be?

    It’s a shame the Liberal Party does not honour the former Non-Labor Leaders and PMs prior to 1944. They are a disgrace for not honouring their fight against Labor.]

    Not a lot to work with there, Gary. Lyons a Labor Rat. Hughes a Labor Rat. Bruce the bloke who tried to destroy the trade union movement and got defeated himself in 29.

  41. [Abbott is a puppet of the hacks and Menzies House.]

    I disagree, Abbott is a weathervane … puppet to the breeze and winds of change … the hacks and Menzies House are much more consistent and much more intelligent than Abbott.

  42. Cuppa:

    Yes, all of those too.

    Abbott has way too many interests vested in his overall success, both inside and outside the partyroom.

    It’s a fall from a very great height should it happen. And if it does, he’ll take the Liberal party down with him. I so want it to happen.

  45. I always thought Rudd was got rid of because of the mining tax. It would give me extreme pleasure to see a resources tax enacted and afterwards, expanded.

  48. [I always thought Rudd was got rid of because of the mining tax. It would give me extreme pleasure to see a resources tax enacted and afterwards, expanded.]

    There were many excuses at the time, the tax, the ‘bad polling’ (ha ha ha in light of recent labor polling) and then many different excuses later. Occasionally the ‘he just wasn’t well liked’ truth comes thru.

  49. [ He’s also a puppet of the think tanks, shock jocks, Murdoch hacks, Rodent Howard, George Pell, the late BA Santamaria, mining fat cats, big vested interest lobby groups, One Notion-type flat-earthers, Tea Party tactics, etc. Notice the one group that’s missing from the list: The Australian public. ]

    This is an excellent summary of exactly why Abbott will never be PM!

    Now it’s time to take a break from Crikey for a couple of days – at least until the Rudd/Gillard nonsense dies down. I might sneak a peak tomorrow if the Newspoll results are good – but to be honest, the results are almost certainly going to be within the MOE of all the other recent polls, so they will do nothing to disturb the trend that seems to be all Gillard’s way at the moment – despite the best efforts of the ABC and their Dark Lord.

  50. [Abbott is a weathervane … puppet to the breeze and winds of change]

    No, he’s totally captive by the shockjocks and populists at Menzies House. Listen to his pressers, his speeches and QT rants. Watch what the Liberals do policy-wise on nation-defining issues like carbon pricing and pricing our mineral wealth.

    They are divorced from reality under his leadership. It’s a slow road back to the centre, but they’ll never get there with Abbott and his puppet-masters in Howard and Minchin pulling his strings.

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