Newspoll, Essential Research and Galaxy: 54-46 to Coalition

UPDATE: The first Newspoll result of the year has just been reported, and I’m sticking it on the top of the existing post because of technical difficulties we’re having. The poll has the Coalition leading 54-46 on two-party preferred, in common with Essential Research and Galaxy (see below), and indeed with last year’s final Newspoll result from December 2-4. However, Newspoll has both parties solidly lower on the primary vote than the other two pollsters, at 30 per cent for Labor and 45 per cent for the Coalition – which is respectively down one and up one on the December poll. Julia Gillard’s approval rating is also down three points to 33 per cent and her disapproval is down one to 55 per cent. Tony Abbott’s numbers are all but identical to Gillard’s, his approval steady on 32 per cent and disapproval down two to 55 per cent. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 43-36 to 40-37.

The Daily Telegraph reports Galaxy’s first poll of federal voting intention since October is in line with other recent polling in showing the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead at 54-46, from primary votes of 34 per cent for Labor, 48 per cent for the Coalition and 12 per cent for the Greens. However, Kevin Rudd’s big lead over Julia Gillard in a head-to-head contest for preferred Labor leader is essentially unchanged at 52 per cent to 30 per cent, compared with 53 per cent to 29 per cent in October. When Bill Shorten is thrown in as a third contender he scores 14 per cent to Rudd’s 44 per cent and Gillard’s 27 per cent. The poll was conducted on Saturday and Sunday (i.e. today if you’re reading this soon enough) from a sample of 1001, with a margin of error of about 3 per cent.

Essential Research has the Coalition leading 54-46 from primary votes of 35 per cent for Labor, 48 per cent for the Coalition and 10 per cent for the Greens, which differs from last week only in that the Greens are a point higher, and is exactly the same as the week before. The supplementary questions include some zingers, not least the finding that our greatest Prime Ministers of the past 70 years were John Howard (33 per cent, up from 28 per cent when the question was last asked in January 2009) followed by Kevin Rudd and Bob Hawke (15 per cent). Howard scores no less than 61 per cent among Coalition voters, leaving Bob Menzies for dust on 18 per cent, while Labor supporters divide much more evenly between Hawke and Rudd, and to a lesser extent Whitlam and Keating. Poor old Malcolm Fraser scores a third of Gough Whitlam, a fifth of Bob Hawke and an eleventh of John Howard. Also featured are blast-from-the-past questions on how respondents rate the Building the Education Revolution: 30 per cent good and 31 per cent poor, although that includes 15 per cent very poor and only 7 per cent very good. Desire for a new election is essentially unchanged on December, at 40 per cent for and 48 per cent against, and support for a trial of mandatory pre-commitment is at 58 per cent with 29 per cent opposed – though I would sooner have seen support for it compared with a non-trial introduction before the election

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

7,262 comments on “Newspoll, Essential Research and Galaxy: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  2. 7221 TP

    I see you’re slowing down there, Thomas. Only three mentions of “knifing”. Really, I think you’re beginning to warm to our PM at last.

  3. morning all – and what a great morning! now to see what grattan and kelly make of all this! surely grattan will now turn her focus to change of leadership of the libs!! always had faith in the australian people – it’s all up from here imo.

  6. thanks to BrigadierSlog on twitter:

    #auspol The Journalist (Hacks) Questions at todays PM press conference:-
    1. Re Alp/LNP Nielsen polls (Leadership not mentioned)
    2. Sen Brown’s sexism claims
    3. Gov economic forecasts/management
    4. Syria
    5. Indigenous constitution clause for referendum
    6. Should tax payers continue to “prop up” the car industry? (Leading much?)
    7. RBA and Banks passing on interest rate custs
    8. Malaysia & foreign trade
    9. Private Health Insurance Rebate Legislation
    10. Unemployment vs surplus / Comment re Murdoch calling Rudd “inept”
    11. “Why did you feel the need to tell Mike Willesee you are the Prime Minister” (FFS!!!)
    12. Something about Fair Work Australia
    13. Why don’t you sell your message better?” (LOL)
    14. (Rumour) Some MPs say you have to do better. (More LOL)
    15. Your message to indigenous unemployed?
    16. Leadership tensions (She referred to her “dont write crap” suggestion)
    17. “How do you deal with Rudd.”

    Not ONE question about the 3 topics she mentioned at the presser and enough leading questions, thinly veiled innuendo to fill the front pages. Again.

  7. I love annoying van Onselen:

    vanOnselenP: Go Giants!

    GeorgeBludger: @vanOnselenP LOL, typical. Watching sports over listening to economic/policy presser by PM

    vanOnselenP: Yeah it was a real tough decision! Heard of Foxtel IQ? MT @GeorgeBludger: @vanOnselenP typical. Watching sports over listening to PM

    GeorgeBludger: @vanOnselenP Foxtel has an IQ? Who would have thunk?

  8. [geeksrulz: PM smackdown: ‘As to the rest ‘I will leave you to your fevered speculation which doesn’t need any facts or commentary from me’. #auspol]

  9. Ben Eltham: After the fact: adventures in new journalism

    [The only people who are saying that a leadership challenge is on the cards are a small number of “Rudd supporters”, none of whom have had the guts to go on the record with their real names, and a bunch of journalists who would probably fail a first-year journalism subject if they submitted the sort of articles that have been published in abundance in recent days.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/3813404.html

  12. shellbell – shit! This is what happens when you move between a Mac Pro, a Macbook, an iPhone, and iPad and a Win PC within an hour 😛

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