Newspoll, Essential Research and Galaxy: 54-46 to Coalition

UPDATE: The first Newspoll result of the year has just been reported, and I’m sticking it on the top of the existing post because of technical difficulties we’re having. The poll has the Coalition leading 54-46 on two-party preferred, in common with Essential Research and Galaxy (see below), and indeed with last year’s final Newspoll result from December 2-4. However, Newspoll has both parties solidly lower on the primary vote than the other two pollsters, at 30 per cent for Labor and 45 per cent for the Coalition – which is respectively down one and up one on the December poll. Julia Gillard’s approval rating is also down three points to 33 per cent and her disapproval is down one to 55 per cent. Tony Abbott’s numbers are all but identical to Gillard’s, his approval steady on 32 per cent and disapproval down two to 55 per cent. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 43-36 to 40-37.

The Daily Telegraph reports Galaxy’s first poll of federal voting intention since October is in line with other recent polling in showing the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead at 54-46, from primary votes of 34 per cent for Labor, 48 per cent for the Coalition and 12 per cent for the Greens. However, Kevin Rudd’s big lead over Julia Gillard in a head-to-head contest for preferred Labor leader is essentially unchanged at 52 per cent to 30 per cent, compared with 53 per cent to 29 per cent in October. When Bill Shorten is thrown in as a third contender he scores 14 per cent to Rudd’s 44 per cent and Gillard’s 27 per cent. The poll was conducted on Saturday and Sunday (i.e. today if you’re reading this soon enough) from a sample of 1001, with a margin of error of about 3 per cent.

Essential Research has the Coalition leading 54-46 from primary votes of 35 per cent for Labor, 48 per cent for the Coalition and 10 per cent for the Greens, which differs from last week only in that the Greens are a point higher, and is exactly the same as the week before. The supplementary questions include some zingers, not least the finding that our greatest Prime Ministers of the past 70 years were John Howard (33 per cent, up from 28 per cent when the question was last asked in January 2009) followed by Kevin Rudd and Bob Hawke (15 per cent). Howard scores no less than 61 per cent among Coalition voters, leaving Bob Menzies for dust on 18 per cent, while Labor supporters divide much more evenly between Hawke and Rudd, and to a lesser extent Whitlam and Keating. Poor old Malcolm Fraser scores a third of Gough Whitlam, a fifth of Bob Hawke and an eleventh of John Howard. Also featured are blast-from-the-past questions on how respondents rate the Building the Education Revolution: 30 per cent good and 31 per cent poor, although that includes 15 per cent very poor and only 7 per cent very good. Desire for a new election is essentially unchanged on December, at 40 per cent for and 48 per cent against, and support for a trial of mandatory pre-commitment is at 58 per cent with 29 per cent opposed – though I would sooner have seen support for it compared with a non-trial introduction before the election

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

7,262 comments on “Newspoll, Essential Research and Galaxy: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. Good point mexicanbeemer Howard should have been warmer at times. I was proud of RUDD and the sorry speech. Gillard trashed all Rudd’s efforts. As for the “Bob Browns Bitch” sign. I was there were you?

  4. Poor dear Leader

    Knifed Kev
    signed up the indies
    signed up the marriage with the greens.
    Made the best cabinet reshuffle that upset every one.
    knife Wilkie.
    Knew nothing about the race bating going within her own office

    And after making this bed she now wants to play the victim. There is a line up of people she has stomped on to get to this time and place and we must all now feel bad for the PM. Kev at least had honor is taking down John. He had more support on a bad day then dear leader has ever had on a good day. But thats right, its Kev’s and every other sexist pricks fault that she is now where she is today. Thats Leadership.

  5. [As for the “Bob Browns Bitch” sign. I was there were you?]

    Welcome to PB Sophie Mirabella. Have you replaced the old man living in your backyard?

  6. New2This… didn’t I see you posting away with great gusto supporting ‘pompous blowhard Akermans’ every Liberal supporting word on his blog at the Tele, before I was banned for suggesting he was an Abbott *^#** old *#** lay down *#**# person.

  12. [No I didn’t carry any signs.]

    Sounds like you don’t want to talk about the old man in your backyard. Don’t worry Sophie, we are an understanding lot.

  13. rummel with respect you lack a certain area of the body which usually runs up the back…you will not justify your comment insinuating the PMs department was attempting to cause a racial riot.
    Enough said about you!!!

  14. [I notice Abbott is starting to put more of his daughters into the media. Will you cry crocodile tears when the media gets stuck into Abbott and his precious daughters? I think not. I hope the media dish out to his wife and kids – if God forbid he ever becomes PM – the same crap the PM has had to put up with.]

    Go for gold. Abbott apparently has a problem with with 50% of the population. If Abbott makes the choice to explote his kids to improve that then thats his fault if it turns to ****. Like wise Gillard sending in 60minutes to do a how manly is Tim in his back shed moment. It was a kodak moment when Gillard was not aloud in the MENS shed and stood out side like a sore thumb. It was Gold.

  16. Who cares what the gender of the Prime Minister is? What is more important is a decent and honest person who can lead a unified team to run the country.

  19. David

    [you will not justify your comment insinuating the PMs department was attempting to cause a racial riot.
    Enough said about you!!!]

    Im sorry i may have drawn the long bow about trying to cause a riot. Who could have possible guessed Gillards media man was acting “lone wolf”.

  22. Gillard’s little band of mercenaries and hacks were particularly stupid in attempting to legitimise her and provide a rationale for the knifing via trashing and denigrating Rudd, and creating any negative meme they could think of. Did them more harm than Rudd by going way over the top as they did.

    The only place the memes stuck was with the merry band within PB and the said mercenaries and hacks. Which is kinda funny because two seconds before Rudd was their hero.

    We even had a hack here doing his best to slag Rudd to death. The only problem they had was that there was absolutely no rationale for the knifing of Rudd and the public knew it. And it has been a gigantic crack across Gillard’s mirror ever since.

    The second massive crack across the mirror was that in knifing Rudd she the had to show that she was far superior. Well, dogwhistle first day, Timor solution debacle instantly, Gillard real and fake, non carbon tax, the BS formum on carbon haha, then having to put in Rudd’s ETS because of the Greens…and so on….up to the betrayal of Wilkie…..if anything she has proved that she is far inferior to Rudd.

    This is why she is doing so badly in the polls. The public sees clearly where the fanboys see no error or sin in their idol.

  24. [GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes
    #Nielsen Poll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 47 (+4) L/NP 53 (-4) ]

    Well dont i have to suck on some eggs 🙂

  25. rummel I repeat and its not the first time you have shot the yapper off, you lack certain attributes, honesty included, you have too much form to be anything!!…your mate Newt is in good company you deserve each other…the door is marked exit.

  26. [GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes
    #Nielsen Poll Gillard: Approve 40 (+5) Disapprove 55 (-3) #auspol
    54 seconds ago

    GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes
    #Nielsen Poll Primary Votes: ALP 33 (+4) L/NP 45 (-4) GRN 13 (+2) #auspol
    2 minutes ago

    GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes
    #Nielsen Poll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 47 (+4) L/NP 53 (-4) #auspol]

  32. Those are quite good results, especially given all the media hysteria this week. I’m sure our MSM friends will still be trying to push Kevin Rudd though.

  34. [Ask your mate rummel – he’s the one with the problem]

    I only have a problem because of the implied need to feel sorry for PM because she is a woman. Helen Clark was a true leader, she could be jump the ditch and save ALP.

  37. [GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes
    #Nielsen Poll Federal 2 Party Preferred in VIC: ALP 55 (+7) L/NP 45 (-7) #auspol
    1 minute ago]

    Interesting!

  42. Oh no! I thought something like this might happen, but I had been hoping for some DRAMA this week. Looks like it’s going to be boring. 🙁

  45. » GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes
    #Nielsen Poll Primary Votes: ALP 33 (+4) L/NP 45 (-4) GRN 13 (+2) #auspol

    rummel you deserve that now eat it!!!!!!!!! Paine in the arse, you too
    After all the crap dished out by the media, over the last week, the LNP and the likes of you two, she leads on does this wonderful woman and her party…oh how sad for the Libs and the refugee from the Jesuit Monastry on Tuesday 😀

  46. Oh well, it buys her some more time, but she can’t afford any more stuffups(like the Australia Day incident).
    Craig Thompson and Peter Slipper still loom as potential snags in the road.

  47. Evening bludgers

    OH had to go to hospital this morning as kidney stone still giving him grief. If stone does not pass through tonight, he is going to have a stent done tomorrow to remove it. I am feeling a little flat because of it all. But I come here on PB to catch up and i get the biggest surprise ever!!! Are those Nielsen poll figures for real!!!!!

  48. [New2This
    Posted Sunday, February 5, 2012 at 10:38 pm | Permalink

    When will the Prime Minister apologize for the disgrace? Apologize to people for the actions of her office. The fish stinks from the head.]

    Surely Abbott and his supporters shouldn’t expect others to apologise for him.

  50. [rummel
    Posted Sunday, February 5, 2012 at 11:05 pm | Permalink

    David

    you will not justify your comment insinuating the PMs department was attempting to cause a racial riot.
    Enough said about you!!!

    Im sorry i may have drawn the long bow about trying to cause a riot. Who could have possible guessed Gillards media man was acting “lone wolf”. ]

    Who could’ve guessed Abbott would try his hand at dog whistling about the Tent Embassy on Australia Day?

    [You are posting comments too quickly. Slow down.]

    It might only be a machine, but it’s about the only thing ever to accuse me of doing anything too quickly.

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