It seems Nielsen’s sample of 1400 respondents from its first opinion poll of the year didn’t get the memo: the poll has the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead at 53-47, which although not brilliant for the government in absolute terms is its best result from Nielsen since March last year. The same applies for the primary vote, on which Labor is at 33 per cent, while the Coalition is on 45 per cent and the Greens are on 13 per cent. This looks particularly good for Labor if you compare it with the most recent result from the same pollster, as the media so likes to do. That poll, which was published on December 11, had Labor at 29 per cent, the Coalition at 49 per cent and the Greens at 11 per cent, with two-party preferred at 57-43. Labor’s relatively strong showing has been driven by a quirky looking result from the Victorian component of the poll, which has Labor leading 55-45 – essentially the same as the 2010 election result, and better for them than at any Nielsen poll since. The Victorian component accounts for 330 respondents and has a margin of error of 5.4 per cent; the results for the other states should emerge tomorrow. The margin of error for the poll as a whole, which as always with Nielsen was conducted from Thursday to Saturday, is 2.6 per cent.
Even better for Labor so far as tomorrow’s headlines are concerned is an eight-point improvement in Julia Gillard’s net personal rating and a six-point improvement as preferred prime minister. Gillard’s approval is up five on the previous poll to 40 per cent and her disapproval is down three to 55 per cent, and she has shot to a 48-46 lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister after trailing 46-42 last time. These results are very similar to the November poll, and the shifts probably represent a correction on an aberrant result in December. That Gillard has gained six points on preferred prime minister without taking a chunk out of Abbott’s rating is curious, and calls attention to the much lower undecided rating Nielsen produces on this question (ranging from 6 per cent to 12 per cent since the election) compared with Newspoll (15 per cent to 25 per cent). Tony Abbott’s personal ratings meanwhile are essentially unchanged: approval steady on 41 per cent, and disapproval up one to 54 per cent (his equal worst results from Nielsen on both counts).
One fly in the ointment for Gillard is that Nielsen has, reasonably enough, put her head-to-head with Kevin Rudd as preferred Labor leader, with Rudd predictably holding a commanding 57 per cent to 35 per cent lead. However, even this is a much better result for Gillard than when the question was last asked at Labor’s polling nadir in October, when Rudd led 61 per cent to 30 per cent.
Numbers, it almost goes without saying, courtesy of GhostWhoVotes. UPDATE: Full tables, including state breakdowns and such, here.
UPDATE: Essential Research once again has the two-party vote at 54-46, as it has in every poll since December 12 (and not since September has it failed to produce a result of either 54-46 or 55-45). Labor however has dropped a point on the primary vote for the second week in a row, now at 33 per cent (their weakest result since October 24), with the Coalition steady on 47 per cent and the Greens up a point to 11 per cent. A question on the government’s industrial relations regime finds 24 per cent believing it favours workers, 25 per cent believing it favours employers and 34 per cent finding it balances the interests of both, which would be a very pleasing set of numbers from the government’s point of view. The poll also has 15 per cent of respondents saying Australian workers are “very productive” and 59 per cent “quite productive”. Also canvassed was trust in various public institutions, which has the Australian Defence Force on top. Curiously, the least trusted out of those included were “business and banking regulators”.
deblonay
I too concur with your sentiments.
rummel:
How long do you think it will be before they work out they are doing cartwheels over a poll showing a landslide victory for the Coalition?
[GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes
#Nielsen Poll Preferred ALP Leader (ALP Voters): Gillard 50 Rudd 47 #auspol]
Thats an important poll to be winning on, given next week….
The Global Mail is up:
http://www.theglobalmail.org/feature/prime-minister-on-hold/33/
Gogogogogogogo!
I found this gem of wisdom in Katharine Murphy’s piece tonight:
[There have been too many stuff ups.]
She is referring to the PM of course. Just that bald statement. No explanation as to what the “stuff ups” are. Lazy, lazy journalism.
Got to love the Geek!
geeksrulz Intrepid Geek
Lifeline for besieged Grattan as Nielsen forces her to re-evaluate her speculation gone mad reporting 🙂
Bailleau’s problem is that he leads a minority government i.e. his numbers, although the are much greater that the Nationals, are minor in status, The Libs are the lapdogs of the Nationals due to Bailleau’s weaknesses. Ryan is the effectively premier of Victoria. We see it on the nightly news and people are asking who is that Ryan guy and who wanted him as premier.
[Falling interest rates, mild inflation and doubts about the Liberals’ so-called economic policies…..Labor still has a fighting chance….as long as the employment market holds up.]
This certainly seems to be helping. The eastern seaboard has been having a rather cool summer. At my place the aircon has been hardly used, producing a quite substantial saving. If rates continue to fall, and with more money being handed out in coming months, things might be looking up.
(I hope that stupid wordpress posting bug will be fixed because it is annoying me)
David, it’s been a long, long time since you left a comment here which wasn’t viciously abusive and/or exasperatingly stupid. If your behaviour doesn’t change more or less beyond recognition, I’m going to ban you.
David
[You are the dispenser of misinformation,]
ho ho ho your a jolie little red fella. Open up the little red book and read me a night time story about media missinformation.
[Mark Colvin
@Colvinius
If @GhostWhoVotes is right (and he usually is) there should be egg on a lot of pundit faces in the morning.]
[How long do you think it will be before they work out they are doing cartwheels over a poll showing a landslide victory for the Coalition?]
True Mod Lib, but after the week we have had, I will take it and continue my cartwheels.
Mod Lib
[rummel:
How long do you think it will be before they work out they are doing cartwheels over a poll showing a landslide victory for the Coalition?]
I will this time agree with Team Labor and say “its the trend”. They may be still in the wipe out zone but it looks like they are starting to swim.
Quite nice poll result.
Glad to see you too have survived the day, George. Maybe they have larger things in mind.
Take care they do not want dogs!
[Mark Colvin
@Colvinius
If @GhostWhoVotes is right (and he usually is) there should be egg on a lot of pundit faces in the morning.]
Good on you Mark Colvin.
[george
Posted Sunday, February 5, 2012 at 11:49 pm | Permalink
According to Katharine, it’s all fugged anyway/regardless/Rudd/whatever:
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/the-labor-story-will-end-badly-20120205-1qznx.html ]
Murphy does seem to be setting some sort of trade mark for consistent brainelessness in her pieces. But I suppose she deserves shill acclaim for turning a slight poll improvement into a negative.
That Murphy editorial is pretty hilarious. Some of these writers are just going to keep on writing about imminent Ruddstoration no matter what. The Daily Telegraph editorial page (esteemed source it is) prettymuch says the same:
[YESTERDAY the latest tortured attempt by the government to focus on policy and put behind it the destructive cold war between Prime Minister Julia Gillard and her rival, foreign minister Kevin Rudd was played out.
Labor’s special caucus meeting was said to be a mere planning session for the year ahead, but clarity of purpose is impossible while numbers are being counted and factions courted.
It doesn’t help the government’s credibility to deny that leadership conflict is an issue. Treasurer Wayne Swan tried to swat the matter away on the ABC’s Insiders yesterday morning, insisting he took Rudd “at his word” that there was no challenge.
Along with host Barrie Cassidy, every politically-alert viewer in the land would have responded: “You know that is not true”. Swan can’t possibly expect the public to cop his peace-in-our-time fantasy.
Nor can Labor expect to move on without solving the Gillard-Rudd impasse.
As Cassidy put it, echoing The Daily Telegraph’s coverage: “Can they really have a meeting without confronting the elephant in the room?”
Whether he was mentioned or not during the caucus gathering, Rudd was very much a presence there, despite being more than 16,000km away in Munich, Germany. Perhaps the foreign minister, while addressing the Munich Security Conference, also had his mind on domestic events.
“The danger that I see is Europe progressively becoming so introspective and so preoccupied with its internal problems that Europe runs the risk of talking itself into an early economic and therefore globally political grave,” Rudd said.
Replace the word “Europe” in that paragraph with “Labor” and Rudd is right on the money.]
[True Mod Lib, but after the week we have had, I will take it and continue my cartwheels.]
Not to mention Lynchpin, there’s no election tomorrow 😆 and this conversation was happening 6 months ago, and look where we are now. Another 6 months, and… As always good policy and good economic management, in time, will always trump “stop the boats”
Lynchpin:
I don’t begrudge your enjoyment- you have to take what you can get in this environment!!! I’ll admit this poll certainly had me surprised!
Although I have been overseas so not in tune with what has been happening in the last week, by all reports here it wasn’t a good one for the ALP…interesting how polls so often don’t head in the expected direction.
I think you people actually forget there are people out here like myself that have absolute admiration for Ms Gillard, especially with what she has put up with. This women is inspiring, I for one tip my hat to her.
RosieJ
I respect you views and getting on hear to say it.
[…interesting how polls so often don’t head in the expected direction.]
Yep, sometimes no matter how much time and no matter how many column inches of negativity are thrown at a target enough members of the voting public can see that things are a little better than the msm would have them believe.
Have not forgotten much of anything, RosieJ
Certainly a good poll to be going into the 1st week of Parliament with. 🙂 Eat that Fibs!!
Still, i think i’ll maintain my long term position that we wont see more than a slow trend back to the ALP, with the odd ups and downs, through to 3rd quarter 2012.
I still think that’s its after the Carbon Price and MRRT actually start operating, and the sky is still up there having not fallen on our economic heads, that the ALP will start leading in the polls again.
Interestingly, the ALP does have a couple of good policy positions to push in the first half of 2012. The Pokies legislation such as it is will go down pretty well and if they can show progress on NDIS as a longer term project that will give them a good, Labor narrative to be going on with.
Will be interesting to see how Carbon Price and MRRT play into the budget in 2012 and 2013 now that they are legislated?
Could be a good year for the ALP if they stay the course. Will likely be a frustrating one for the Fibs though. Wonder how long it will take them to get onto BOATS in QT this week??
The good guys are winning, stick phat.
Wish my say was still up for this. She would like it.
[GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes
#Nielsen Poll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 47 (+4) L/NP 53 (-4) ]
Bye, bye to the “desperately hanging onto 30%” meme.
Hello “languishing in the mid 30s” meme.
I wrote last night that the reason just about everyone at Fairfax had been touting “30%” was (IMHO) because it was the lowest figure out of 4 polls. Now it’s the lowest figure out of FIVE polls, with the latest being (unfortunately for the Fairfax narks) their very own, in-house, rolled gold, can’t-be-wrong, certified, we-own-it Nielsen, which they will HAVE to acknowledge as God’s truth, or else acknowledge they’ve done their dough on a bum poll.
We now have Newspoll 30, Galaxy 34, Essential 35, Morgan 38 and Nielsen 38, which roughly averages out to around 35… nowhere near “30%”.
Choke on it Ol’ coke Bottles, Pin Stripe Hartcher, The Wrights pere et fille, Haystacks Hockey, Testosterone Tone and Princess Pyne (with a special mention to Shonky Shanners, Rupert’s bum boy in Chief).
Julia’s back and she’s fighting fit.
No Birthday Cakes for Mike Willessee either.
[Wonder how long it will take them to get onto BOATS in QT this week??]
Not long. They have little else to debate
Except the name and location of my secondary school.
Paddy2.
Marymount. Was next to Stella Maris, of course. Since relocated to Hove, and partnered with Sacred Heart.
BB
[Julia’s back and she’s fighting fit.]
Yep:
geeksrulz: Nielsen July 2011: ALP 39 – 61 LNP to Nielsen February 2012: ALP 47 – 53 LNP. Small trend. 2 years to go. PM JG in trouble or narrative?
BB, did you see the Willessee interview? What did you think?
Good night all.
And for david I’m exiting stage right 🙂
Tomorrow’s Ltd News Meme:
[perthnowperthnow.com.au
Prime Minister’s BBQ party strikes a snag http://bit.ly/yVQabT
4 minutes ago FavoriteRetweetReply]
Shades of the return to Kim Beazley in 2005 to help re-elect Geoff Gallop:
[But sources inside Queensland Premier Anna Bligh’s camp have revealed they have been urging Mr Rudd to bring on a challenge early, believing that as prime minister he would boost Queensland Labor’s support.]
I would if you would let me, Wordpess.
What do you mean, I am messaging too quickly?
Frank we know better. Good guys will win this.
By jingoes Abbott’s a failure. His party’s PV is 12 points better than the Governments, yet he trails as PPM. Fail.
[RosieJ
Posted Monday, February 6, 2012 at 12:18 am | Permalink
I think you people actually forget there are people out here like myself that have absolute admiration for Ms Gillard, especially with what she has put up with. This women is inspiring, I for one tip my hat to her.]
Good for you, RosieJ. Obviously you have a very different view from your near-namesake, Rosa.
I think you’re closer to it.
As far as I’m concerned, the year has gotten off to a rather poor start for the government, so the fact that it’s maintained its polling recovery from late last year surprises me a little. My best guess is that the blowout Labor suffered in the polls after the carbon tax was announced is a balloon that is steadily losing air, and that this has carried greater weight in the overall polling trend than the ins and outs of the weekly news cycle.
Rummel your boys are toast. Good guys have nailed this.
George
You would have missed my sentiment previous page.
[Julia’s back and she’s fighting fit.]
Tony and the pathetic excuse for a Lib front bench in QT this week?
Be afraid, very afraid.
🙂
William:
Quite possible, but I wonder whether its the pokies thing actually.
As always, only time will tell and we need more data (like Essential tomorrow), and with that, Good night all!
[My best guess is that the blowout Labor suffered in the polls after the carbon tax was announced is a balloon that is steadily losing air, and that this has carried greater weight in the overall polling trend than the ins and outs of the weekly news cycle.]
Blimey, we’ve been saying that would be the case for weeks.
WTF is William talking about.
[WTF is William talking about.]
It’s called paying begrudging respect for what the PM has achieved.
Hi Crikey,
Yep thats right. We used to brawl with the “publics” from the primary school at the end of White cres
crikey whitey, just saw it – yep, my home poll numbers picked up throughout the day, so it appears I’m safe for another week 😛
Can’t see any big words or syntax errors in there, Henry. I think you should be able to work it out yourself.
[My best guess is that the blowout Labor suffered in the polls after the carbon tax was announced is a balloon that is steadily losing air]
It will be interesting to see (hear) how the Libjocks on hateradio move on from this dead horse that, among other pieces of dead meat, they’ve spent many months flogging.