Morgan: 52-48 to Coalition face-to-face

Hold the front page: Labor shoots to election-winning opinion poll lead. Well, sort of – the poll comes from the little-reported Morgan face-to-face series, which is noted for leaning heavily to Labor when measured against both election results and other pollsters, and the lead only stands if you allocate minor party and independent preferences according to the result of the previous election. On the primary vote, Labor is at 38.5 per cent (which is half a point higher than the 2010 election result), the Coalition is on 42.5 per cent (43.6 per cent at the election) and the Greens are on 12 per cent. If you assume preferences would behave as they did at the previous election, as most pollsters do, that translates into a 51-49 lead for Labor. However, the Morgan face-to-face series continues to confound by showing minor party and independent voters splitting about 50-50 when asked which of the major parties they would preference, with the result that the Coalition leads 52-48 on the measure Morgan uses at its headline figure. The poll covers the last two weekends of Morgan’s regular surveying, from a total sample of 1921.

Morgan poops Labor’s party a little further with the unheralded publication of voting intention figures from a phone survey of what I take to have been about 600 respondents on Tuesday and Wednesday of last week (from which we’d previously seen only this – the sample quoted is 646 persons over 14, the youngest of whom would not have been included in the voting intention figures), which shows Labor doing only slightly better than the overall trend. This poll has the Coalition leading 46.5 per cent to 35.5 per cent on the primary vote, 53.5-46.5 on previous-election preferences and 54.5-45.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, with the Greens on 9 per cent. The Labor primary vote is the highest they have recorded at any phone poll (Newspoll, Nielsen, Morgan or Galaxy) since the middle of March 2011, although the margin of error on this occasion is a high 4 per cent.

Going back to the middle of the last year, Labor’s respondent-allocated preference share from pollsters who publish figures for this has been 63.1 per cent from Nielsen polls, 61.8 per cent from Morgan phone polls (of which there have been five) and 49.7 per cent from Morgan face-to-face polls. At the 2010 election it was 65.7 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,746 comments on “Morgan: 52-48 to Coalition face-to-face”

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  2. Watched Abbott on 7 News after the new footage of Gillard and his escape.

    He said at the doorstop today “I want to give her a chance to be honorable”

    I’ve heard him say this a number of times now. There can only be two explanations:

    1. He’s deliberately saying it to highlight the subtle point to his supporter base

    2. He’s ignorant and his staff haven’t told him what he’s saying (probably because they know what it’s communicating to his base)

  8. Catey Baxter,

    [ Andrea commented that Tony Abbott did not say anything provocative in his presso that morning and that he was merely answering a question put to him by a journalist from the Channel 9 breakfast programme. She did not name the journalist. ]

    In that case it was either Lisa Wilkinson or Georgie Gardner with my money being on Lisa Wilkinson.

    Now how can we connect some dots here!

    http://today.ninemsn.com.au/meettheteam/172408/about-today

  9. s212

    [I want to give her a chance to be honorable]

    Main messages:

    (1) I consider Ms Gillard to be dishonourable
    (2) I am a fair sort of person
    (3) I have the power to decide whether or not it is reasonable to give her the chance to be honourable or not.

    All very clever ways of framing the issues, especially with a largely brain-dead and compliant MSM.

  10. victoria
    [How hard is it for someone in the journosphere to ascertain who asked Abbott “the question”?]
    That’s the rub. Thats why it smacks of a cover-up

  12. [Fight goddamit fight! Get dirty get even get out there and defend urselves.]

    Yes fight dirty Mr Hodges style, that will drum up support for Labor.

  13. latika disappointed me on ABC24 today when she came to the conclusion that wtte this is not a good start to the year for Julia Gillard – first she has lost Wilkie’s support and now this etc etc. The ABC types seem to reel off all the imagined sins and omissions every time, even the ones that are not proven or imaginary.

    Also
    If the PM had not accepted the resignation of the staff member, it would “she’s too weak to act”. Now it’s “she fired him because something had to be hidden”.

  15. [He said at the doorstop today “I want to give her a chance to be honorable”

    I’ve heard him say this a number of times now. There can only be two explanations:

    1. He’s deliberately saying it to highlight the subtle point to his supporter base

    2. He’s ignorant and his staff haven’t told him what he’s saying (probably because they know what it’s communicating to his base)]

    Gotta be 1. Abbott has a lot of form of referring to Gillard as ‘dishonourable’, normally for not calling an election. Its on a sliding scale that leads to his dog-whistles of how Gillard allegedly needs to ‘make an honest woman of herself’.

  16. [How hard is it for someone in the journosphere to ascertain who asked Abbott “the question”?]

    I’d reckon about 10 secs, if that.

  18. How did Hadley know?

    He usually blasts into his microphone, but when he reported that he had heard something big time was brewing, he was reserved and cautious and said he had to check his facts before revealing more.

    I heard his broadcast and got the impression that he felt that he was entering unknown territory with unknown outcomes.

    Remember way back when your program was innocent fun and helped people Ray?

  19. Scorpio – Lisa and Georgia are presenters not journalists + the show would’ve been over before the interview started

    I’m sticking with my – it wasn’t channel 9 theory

  20. Boewar

    The point isn’t whether Abbott is honourable. It’s more to do with the marital status of the PM and behaviour that Mr Abbott finds morally inappropriate …

  21. [scorpio

    Posted Sunday, January 29, 2012 at 7:22 pm | Permalink

    Catey Baxter,

    Andrea commented that Tony Abbott did not say anything provocative in his presso that morning and that he was merely answering a question put to him by a journalist from the Channel 9 breakfast programme. She did not name the journalist.

    In that case it was either Lisa Wilkinson or Georgie Gardner with my money being on Lisa Wilkinson.
    ]
    \Neither Lisa or Georgie go on the Road – the closest Journo to the Opera House was Sylvia Jefferys who made a denial in a tweet to me SIX SECONDS after I asked her.

    The voice does not sound like Gardiner or Wilkinson.

  22. virtualkat,

    This particular situation shows extremely clearly that the basic thrust of your complaint is incorrect.

    The Liberals have done relatively little of the attacking. They’re coming late to that party, and are only now getting into the swing of it.

    It’s been the media that have led the savaging, because they themselves have skin in the game now. The facts show that the only incitement was by the media.

    And if they have anything to say about it, no-one will know what actually happened that day.

    It’s alright to be incredibly frustrated at the wall-to-wall lies and distortions that Labor are subjected to. But don’t get so frustrated that you start to attack your own people unnecessarily. Then you’re acting as the media’s bosses want you to.

  23. I am sure Maiden and Grattan will get to the bottom of it. They have their high standards to impart on others.

    Bwah haha ha. Tricked youse all. 😛

  24. ruawake

    Great idea. Grattan, Maiden and Kenny could all be asked. perhaps we can get Possum to ask them. He has a rapport with them

  25. [How hard is it for someone in the journosphere to ascertain who asked Abbott “the question”?]

    I reckon Media Watch would be able to find out.

  26. ruawake,

    [ Sigh – I suppose we are in for days of ‘just pick up the phone to the AFP and ask for an investigation’.

    How many times have the rabble called for an AFP investigation?

    Crying wolf comes to mind. ]

    Cant remember any urgency for an AFP investigation when the Grech affair was running high! 😉

    Mmmmm something comes to mind though.

  29. [ How hard is it for someone in the journosphere to ascertain who asked Abbott “the question”? ]

    I reckon my 2508 is pretty close to the mark.

    A spread around on twitter should smoke it out properly and fairly quickly.

  30. BW

    You are tight (Hormuz etc)

    But yep we all want to discuss he said she said.

    Mind you I think that the whole thing has been handled badly. How on earth has what should have been a good day for Gillard turned into this mess?

    Also suggest when caught in a PR maelstrom say nothing ie No comment or lot of nonsense. Anything but digging deep holes into which to trip. So far there have been three unnecessary holes dug, each hurting the PM and giving Abbott an easy shot.

  31. [Mmmmm something comes to mind though.]

    How about we start a list?

    Robb with his stolen costings prior to the election. Did AFP investigate no.

    Next. 🙂

  32. [he was merely answering a question put to him by a journalist from the Channel 9 breakfast programme.]
    The tent embassy question would be a mighty BIG step up in the quality of the Today Show, particularly for a public holiday – in the clip that Frank linked to, the lead presenter dude that very day was remarking on the “snail trail” of the navy surf guy FFS

  35. [2529

    scorpio

    Posted Sunday, January 29, 2012 at 7:43 pm | Permalink

    How hard is it for someone in the journosphere to ascertain who asked Abbott “the question”?

    I reckon my 2508 is pretty close to the mark.

    A spread around on twitter should smoke it out properly and fairly quickly
    ]

    Your 2508 is wRONg.

    Those two wouldn’t be seen DEAD near a presser several hours after the Today Show had ended,

    They are Studio monkeys pure and simple.

    My money is still on Jefferys, despite her denials – her quick response makes me VERY susipicioua, along with her not knowing who else would’ve attended – if she wanted to be a cleanskin she would’ve rung around and checked amongst her colleagues.

  38. [Nathalia could do with a good dip.]

    I plead ignorance to the charge. I was in Poona at the time. Who and what is a Nathalia? It wasn’t me …

    Sheepen shagging in the cold, windy hills of NZ is one thing that, I agree, should be addressed. It gets cold over there. But, do you mind. I plead guilty to being a rogue and a wastrel, on occasion a neer-do-well, but I retain a standard.

    Never, to my knowledge, have I ever up-ended a Nathalia.

  40. [2532

    Laocoon

    Posted Sunday, January 29, 2012 at 7:44 pm | Permalink

    he was merely answering a question put to him by a journalist from the Channel 9 breakfast programme.

    The tent embassy question would be a mighty BIG step up in the quality of the Today Show, particularly for a public holiday – in the clip that Frank linked to, the lead presenter dude that very day was remarking on the “snail trail” of the navy surf guy FFS
    ]

    You have heard of leading questions supplied by minders of the subject being interviewed haven’t you ?

    TV Networks aren’t in the habit of wasting resources by sending multiple crews/reporters to jobs so close by – unless one of those is a kids presenter doing a story.

  42. virtulat

    the fact that you saw it. ridiculous I would sa 80″percent of viewers
    did also
    really there is no story
    other than abbott answered a question he could of chose not to

    HIS CHOICE he new what day it was.
    any ways. most people would be watching tennis

    and could not care less,they saw aust. day being turned on its head
    I doubt they care after that.
    of course msm do,and do people really rush to buy papers anymore.

    if I had children now about to go to uni.
    I would advise strongly
    not to do political science or journalism..
    .may be with the computer and nbn
    we can decide for our selves
    hallalu

  43. Is anyone else feeling a little guilty about getting Frank to tweet Sylvia 🙂

    She said it wasn’t her, move on i’d suggest + it was 6, well 5 minutes, not 6 seconds

  45. [victoria

    Posted Sunday, January 29, 2012 at 7:51 pm | Permalink

    Frank Calabrese

    Why would she deny asking the questions. That is a risky position to take
    ]

    She works for Ch 9 who are Tony Abbott’s network of choice – if she outed herself she qwould get Abbott in a heap of trouble – she is protected their no 1 assett – Abbott.

  47. [2543

    womble

    Posted Sunday, January 29, 2012 at 7:52 pm | Permalink

    Is anyone else feeling a little guilty about getting Frank to tweet Sylvia

    She said it wasn’t her, move on i’d suggest + it was 6, well 5 minutes, not 6 seconds
    ]

    6 seconds or minuirtes is not the point – Her volice, or someone similar was heard asking the question – her “denial” raises more questions than it answers.

  49. The questions to be answered.

    Who asked Abbott the move question.
    Who at Pagemasters decided moved on = torn down.

    I bet we will never know.

  50. Frank Calabrese

    There is nothing wrong if this person asked Abbott this question. On the other hand, if it were one of his staffers, that changes everything.

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