Morgan: 52-48 to Coalition face-to-face

Hold the front page: Labor shoots to election-winning opinion poll lead. Well, sort of – the poll comes from the little-reported Morgan face-to-face series, which is noted for leaning heavily to Labor when measured against both election results and other pollsters, and the lead only stands if you allocate minor party and independent preferences according to the result of the previous election. On the primary vote, Labor is at 38.5 per cent (which is half a point higher than the 2010 election result), the Coalition is on 42.5 per cent (43.6 per cent at the election) and the Greens are on 12 per cent. If you assume preferences would behave as they did at the previous election, as most pollsters do, that translates into a 51-49 lead for Labor. However, the Morgan face-to-face series continues to confound by showing minor party and independent voters splitting about 50-50 when asked which of the major parties they would preference, with the result that the Coalition leads 52-48 on the measure Morgan uses at its headline figure. The poll covers the last two weekends of Morgan’s regular surveying, from a total sample of 1921.

Morgan poops Labor’s party a little further with the unheralded publication of voting intention figures from a phone survey of what I take to have been about 600 respondents on Tuesday and Wednesday of last week (from which we’d previously seen only this – the sample quoted is 646 persons over 14, the youngest of whom would not have been included in the voting intention figures), which shows Labor doing only slightly better than the overall trend. This poll has the Coalition leading 46.5 per cent to 35.5 per cent on the primary vote, 53.5-46.5 on previous-election preferences and 54.5-45.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, with the Greens on 9 per cent. The Labor primary vote is the highest they have recorded at any phone poll (Newspoll, Nielsen, Morgan or Galaxy) since the middle of March 2011, although the margin of error on this occasion is a high 4 per cent.

Going back to the middle of the last year, Labor’s respondent-allocated preference share from pollsters who publish figures for this has been 63.1 per cent from Nielsen polls, 61.8 per cent from Morgan phone polls (of which there have been five) and 49.7 per cent from Morgan face-to-face polls. At the 2010 election it was 65.7 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,746 comments on “Morgan: 52-48 to Coalition face-to-face”

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  5. Shouldn’t we look for the cameraman/woman who did the footage of this allusive interview at the Opera House? Must be someone out there who knows who did the filming and can name the “mystery woman”. OTOH it might have been a man with a feminine voice!! Just asking.

  6. BH – You posted @ 2288 that your OH had also noticed Abbotts ‘air’ stealing tactic. “Right on”..

    He attempts it repetitively – on Australia Day he did it and the carefully crafted statement paid off beyond his wildest dreams.

  8. Victoria, wouldn’t there be some kind of demarcation dispute if a non-journalist asked a question at a press conference?

    Good point re Sylvia though – why would she deny it – I’ve seen Frank’s theory but it’s a bit out there for me

  9. [victoria

    Posted Sunday, January 29, 2012 at 7:57 pm | Permalink

    Frank Calabrese

    There is nothing wrong if this person asked Abbott this question. On the other hand, if it were one of his staffers, that changes everything.
    ]
    As I said Ch 9 is Abbott’s channel of choice – easy for them to read a Q prepared by Abbot’s staff so it looks legit.

  11. According to the National Indigenous Times, the tent embassy is the theme for NAIDOC week this year. Apparently there was some controversy between the committee that decides these things and the government department responsible.

    In light of recent events, this seems interesting.

    Unfortunately NIT has gone subscription only so I cant read the whole article.

    http://www.nit.com.au

    Just thought I’d throw another log on the conspiracy fire…

  14. [Why would she deny asking the question. That is a risky position to take]

    True, victoria. Truth will out. So, I think we have to accept her denial.

    So, who was it?

  16. Maybe it is time to invoke press club etiquette into all pressers.

    You ask a Q you say.
    Michelle Grattan – Fairfax. Tony, I love you…
    Sam Maiden – News Ltd (but only on the weekend) Hey budgie…
    Chris Uhlmann – ABC. Tony my ratings are crap, sorry for the easy Q.

  19. DavidWH
    [We need the Newspoll sooner rather than later to change focus.]
    I agree!
    It is a storm in a teacup but that is not what is angering PBers.
    It is the never ending carry on by Rabbott & the media.

  22. [Anyone else think that tennis commentators should have been stilled at birth?]
    ducky
    I think it is a prerequisite for ALL commercial free to air sports commentators to be inane and annoying.

  23. womble

    Frank is probably right in this aspect.

    The questions were asked by “someone”, but were provided by the Abbott camp.

  25. Scringler,

    [ I plead ignorance to the charge. I was in Poona at the time. ]

    Do you go there often. My brother has a hut there. You might know him!

  27. [victoria

    Posted Sunday, January 29, 2012 at 8:10 pm | Permalink

    womble

    Frank is probably right in this aspect.

    The questions were asked by “someone”, but were provided by the Abbott camp.
    ]
    That question sounded too professional to be thought of my the MSM

  29. Dee,

    [ I actually think Rabbott’s overcooking is making him look weak & precious. ]

    There’s nothing worse than over cooked Wabbott. I know from experience that it is tough, stringy & tasteless! 😉

  30. Agree there Victoria – sounds like a prepared question, Frank on the right track there but I’m thinking his sticking to the wrong horse

  31. [scorpio
    Posted Sunday, January 29, 2012 at 1:16 am | Permalink

    Abbott might pay to be very careful about how far he pushes on this. We know about a woman scorned! 😉

    JULIA Gillard says she is absolutely furious at Tony Abbott’s insinuation that she was behind the violent protests that broke out at the Lobby restaurant in Canberra.

    “For it to be insinuated that I played some role to detract attention from the Australians who had performed miracles during natural disasters makes me furious. It’s absolutely typical of his negativity and tendency to go too far,” Ms Gillard said in a statement.

    http://www.news.com.au/national/gillard-adviser-tony-hodges-forced-to-quit-over-tip-off-which-led-to-protest-violence/story-e6frfkvr-1226255907487 ]

    Makes the TLM line a bit hard to sustain. He probably wasn’t a mole but he was certainly a dill.

    Giving out the Australia Day awards for bravery was a major press opportunity for the PM. There is no way she’d have contemplated sabotaging it with an anti-Abbott slant. Abbott was only there for appearances.

    All the kudos were with her until this stupidity.

  33. [He attempts it repetitively – on Australia Day he did it and the carefully crafted statement paid off beyond his wildest dreams.]

    Ctar1 – the thing I found disturbing was that ABC24 chose to cut away from the event the Governor General and the PM were attending and go to Abbott. Why is he so much more important than the GG. His presser could have been taped and shown later.

    Tomorrow we will have Kelly, Carabine and Grattan wielding a stick against the PM for their boy, Tone. Melissa Clark (if she is on Breakfast) and Paul whatsisname will be blatantly all smiles for their boy, Tone.

    I just want a little more attention paid to policy and less to sideshow stuff instituted by Abbott, Pyne and Brandis to cover their own failings.

  34. Kersebletes

    I don’t care if it’s the media or the liberals , half the time it’s the same thing anyway. All I m saying is a government with all the resources available to it should b able to make its case more strongly and have better strategies for managing this sort of bullshit

    Howard managed to obfuscate and deny and weasel out of paying 300 million to sadam Hussein and labor can’t deal with this issue effectively? It’s unbelievable!!

  38. Scorps
    [There’s nothing worse than over cooked Wabbott. I know from experience that it is tough, stringy & tasteless!]
    😆 😆

  40. [Howard managed to obfuscate and deny and weasel out of paying 300 million to sadam Hussein and labor can’t deal with this issue effectively? It’s unbelievable!!]

    Possibly because of the media,not despite it?

  41. [Penny to a pound, Tony Abbott.]

    TlbD,

    I suspect, after some dirty water under the bridge, that will prove correct. This stinks.

  43. [Gotta be 1. Abbott has a lot of form of referring to Gillard as ‘dishonourable’, normally for not calling an election. Its on a sliding scale that leads to his dog-whistles of how Gillard allegedly needs to ‘make an honest woman of herself’.]

    Wow, this is about the longest bow I’ve seen drawn on PB. But I really think Abbott started planning this with Howard & Downer at the time Downer was LOTO. Downer let it slip with his Things that batter comment. It is all on a sliding scale that leads to his dog-whistles of how Gillard allegedly needs to ‘make an honest woman of herself’.

    Pretty clear in my book. Why haven’t the media questioned Downer on this???

  45. BH @ 2583

    ABC24 is obviously run on a shoestring. Not enough people on hand to evaluate things as they happen. This leaves people like ‘Clueless’ Joe to have to present and decide what gets shown in real time.

    It’s a shame. I’d imagine that ‘fox’ have people who understand what the ‘meme’ is for their network so it’s easier for them – ie don’t show anything from the Govt unless it’s said OK to go ahead with this commentary intro.

  47. virtualkat – did Howard have the media running shotgun against him in the way they are against Labor. There is a huge difference in how the media reacted when Howard refused to answer their questions or stared them down.

    They become feral when Labor does that.

  49. VirtualKat
    [Howard managed to obfuscate and deny and weasel out of paying 300 million to sadam Hussein and labor can’t deal with this issue effectively? It’s unbelievable!!]
    How so?

  50. Ruawake

    Yes the media is shit, biased etc etc

    BUT Howard and libs in general keep it simple, stick to easy message and tint get derailed. They r always r on th front foot, either denying or getting attention off themselves by going after the other side. The strategy works. Labor usually apologies, fires someone, tries to cover up something trivial that then becomes a big deal and generally allows ‘facts’ read lies to b established by the other side and then thinking its better to keep quiet those lies become the accepted reality ie pink batts

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