Morgan: 52-48 to Coalition face-to-face

Hold the front page: Labor shoots to election-winning opinion poll lead. Well, sort of – the poll comes from the little-reported Morgan face-to-face series, which is noted for leaning heavily to Labor when measured against both election results and other pollsters, and the lead only stands if you allocate minor party and independent preferences according to the result of the previous election. On the primary vote, Labor is at 38.5 per cent (which is half a point higher than the 2010 election result), the Coalition is on 42.5 per cent (43.6 per cent at the election) and the Greens are on 12 per cent. If you assume preferences would behave as they did at the previous election, as most pollsters do, that translates into a 51-49 lead for Labor. However, the Morgan face-to-face series continues to confound by showing minor party and independent voters splitting about 50-50 when asked which of the major parties they would preference, with the result that the Coalition leads 52-48 on the measure Morgan uses at its headline figure. The poll covers the last two weekends of Morgan’s regular surveying, from a total sample of 1921.

Morgan poops Labor’s party a little further with the unheralded publication of voting intention figures from a phone survey of what I take to have been about 600 respondents on Tuesday and Wednesday of last week (from which we’d previously seen only this – the sample quoted is 646 persons over 14, the youngest of whom would not have been included in the voting intention figures), which shows Labor doing only slightly better than the overall trend. This poll has the Coalition leading 46.5 per cent to 35.5 per cent on the primary vote, 53.5-46.5 on previous-election preferences and 54.5-45.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, with the Greens on 9 per cent. The Labor primary vote is the highest they have recorded at any phone poll (Newspoll, Nielsen, Morgan or Galaxy) since the middle of March 2011, although the margin of error on this occasion is a high 4 per cent.

Going back to the middle of the last year, Labor’s respondent-allocated preference share from pollsters who publish figures for this has been 63.1 per cent from Nielsen polls, 61.8 per cent from Morgan phone polls (of which there have been five) and 49.7 per cent from Morgan face-to-face polls. At the 2010 election it was 65.7 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,746 comments on “Morgan: 52-48 to Coalition face-to-face”

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  1. BK,

    SBS does football well.

    I listen to the coverage of the Cup of the African Nations on the BBC overnight and it is v bad.

    The BBC coverage of local football is excellent.

    A side issue. The BBC does huge coverage of OS and our lot are way too parochial.

  2. Politicians have never gotten a media person to ask them a dorthy dixer in the history of Australian politics until now.

    This is an outrage. ASIO, KGB, CIA, Batman need to be called in on this.

    Get the feeling you are being ridiculed for being ridiculous??

  3. ok, just tweeted this to Tracey Spicer:

    [frankscan65Frank Calabrese

    @

    @spicertracey Tracey, do you recognise the female reporter who asked Tony Abbott about the Tent Embassy in that Aust Day Presser ?

    10 seconds ago FavoriteReplyDelete]

  6. Dee

    It was a while ago but although the sadam thing did get media attention it wasn’t half as feral as Craig Thomson or pink bats or this race riot thing is and that was truly a bad thing that ministers actually did!

  8. CTar1

    [BoerWar @ 2337

    ‘Atlantic Conveyor’

    Distasteful.]

    Acute. I was hearing distant reverberations inside the brain pan as I was typing. Biggest ship ever to be sunk during a war, I guess.
    However, as well you know, it was the Atlantic Conveyor of tropical heat to Britain, etc, to which I was referring.

  9. [Wow, this is about the longest bow I’ve seen drawn on PB. But I really think Abbott started planning this with Howard & Downer at the time Downer was LOTO. Downer let it slip with his Things that batter comment. It is all on a sliding scale that leads to his dog-whistles of how Gillard allegedly needs to ‘make an honest woman of herself’.

    Pretty clear in my book. Why haven’t the media questioned Downer on this???]

    Thanks for missing my point. Abbott has a record of using sexist dog-whistles against Gillard when he has the chance with ‘make an honest woman of herself’ being one of the examples. Of course, that she gets subjected to this is totally a failing of Gillard’s because Kevin Rudd wouldn’t receive the same treatment! Robert 😉

  11. victoria
    [There is nothing wrong if this person asked Abbott this question]
    I think there could be a lot of things that the media might think is wrong about this.

    (1) If the question was asked out of the woman’s own volition, it would be a little embarrassing, given the subsequent turn of events, for the spot light to turn to that journalist

    It would expose the myth that the press gallery has/likes to portray, that it is an impartial non-participant…rather it would be seen to actively commencing its own controversial agenda, one which spiralled out of control probably far more than the questioner may have considered

    (2) If the question was planted as a Dorothy Dixer, it would be a bit embarrassing for this woman and her employer to be exposed as a stooge doing Abbott’s bidding (no matter how common the practice may be)

    It would expose the media outler to clear charges/evidence of partisanship, same point above of destroying (any of) its credibility as an impartial reporting

    From the media self-interest perspective, I think these would act as powerful incentives to keep the focus on Gillard, or the AFP, or the aborigines, or anyone or anything (the damned shoe!) (notice how the media attention has shifted) – anything but their own role in it

  16. VirtualKat
    To get the hounds off his back Howard set up an inquiry.
    He set the terms of reference so narrow that justice could not be served.
    But, justice was seen to be done.

  21. d

    [BW

    You are tight cf Hormuz.

    Well, not that tight. I thought of a variation. The Israelis are murdering Iranian nuclear scientists at will in Iran. They are detonating missile sites in big bangs. They would have the capacity to organise the launch of a missile from Iran at a US ship. Piece of cake.

    This would be an improved version of the Gulf of Tonkin ‘incident’ where the US blamed the North Vietnamese for missiles launched at US ships by US planes.

    I give a decisive break from the current holding pattern in less than 12 months.

  22. [Do you go there often. My brother has a hut there. You might know him!]

    Unfortunately, Scorps, my last visit to Poona was in 1876. Probably missed your brother.

    As I recall it, we sailed down the Ganges, fishing mainly, mixed with a mild degree of pillaging. Nothing untoward, nothing nasty. We retained our dignity and our pride in being gentlemen.

    So, who asked the question?

  27. This little black duck

    [BK,

    SBS does football well.]
    You mean FootballSoccer.Rugger Football and even Victorian Football were around before the Association (Assoc = Soccer) Football mob got organised 🙂

  28. Scorpio

    [Boerwar,

    When the third Carrier Group moves into the area, strap yourself in!]

    There is a shakey assumption here: that the Israelis and the USA are in lock step.

    For example, the Israelis might prefer to push Iran/USA over the edge before the USA is overwhelmingly powerful. The thinking here would be that Iran would be more likely to react to the US while there is only one carrier group in the Gulf rather than three.

  29. [SylviaJeffreys Sylvia Jeffreys
    CSA: @thetodayshow tomorrow is going to be HUGE. MASSIVE. UNMISSABLE. Christening the brand new, super stylish set.
    18 minutes ago ]

    [Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    @
    @SylviaJeffreys @thetodayshow Are you the reporter that asked Tony Abbott THAT question? That was HUGE
    7 minutes ago ]

    No denial

  36. Scringler

    [Do you go there often. My brother has a hut there. You might know him!

    Unfortunately, Scorps, my last visit to Poona was in 1876. Probably missed your brother.

    As I recall it, we sailed down the Ganges, fishing mainly, mixed with a mild degree of pillaging. Nothing untoward, nothing nasty. We retained our dignity and our pride in being gentlemen.]

    OK, so Scringler is the Father of the Bludger House.

  37. cud chewer,

    [Oh my god.. we’re still raving on about that “riot”..

    Bored! bored! bored!!! ]

    A bit like chewing a cud I reckon! Same old, same old!!!!!!!! 😉

  38. [When the third Carrier Group moves into the area, strap yourself in!]

    I agree. I do not want war, i do not want another american war. I think the Americans will fall into another War because its the only area of american psyche in which they are still the masters (just).

  39. [Anyone else think that tennis commentators should have been stilled at birth?]

    Shit, Ducky. That’s one mightily offensive statement if read by anyone who has ever lost a baby.

  40. This little black duck

    [poroti,

    The poms were kicking round things in very early Cs.]
    There were shed loads of Footballs but today’s “Soccer” (Association Football) was formalised after other Footballs like Rugby Union Football. First in best dressed I say.

  42. The Finnigans,

    [ SylviaJeffreys Sylvia Jeffreys
    CSA: @thetodayshow tomorrow is going to be HUGE. MASSIVE. UNMISSABLE. Christening the brand new, super stylish set. ]

    Who gives a stuff about the set! A bit of passable content would be a great start!

    In fact, it would be “everything”!

  46. CTar1

    [Boerwar – You forgot Coventry. I don’t need to check details.]

    If I decode your name and come to the conclusion that you survived that particular sinking is it a hit or a near miss?

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