Morgan: 52-48 to Coalition face-to-face

Hold the front page: Labor shoots to election-winning opinion poll lead. Well, sort of – the poll comes from the little-reported Morgan face-to-face series, which is noted for leaning heavily to Labor when measured against both election results and other pollsters, and the lead only stands if you allocate minor party and independent preferences according to the result of the previous election. On the primary vote, Labor is at 38.5 per cent (which is half a point higher than the 2010 election result), the Coalition is on 42.5 per cent (43.6 per cent at the election) and the Greens are on 12 per cent. If you assume preferences would behave as they did at the previous election, as most pollsters do, that translates into a 51-49 lead for Labor. However, the Morgan face-to-face series continues to confound by showing minor party and independent voters splitting about 50-50 when asked which of the major parties they would preference, with the result that the Coalition leads 52-48 on the measure Morgan uses at its headline figure. The poll covers the last two weekends of Morgan’s regular surveying, from a total sample of 1921.

Morgan poops Labor’s party a little further with the unheralded publication of voting intention figures from a phone survey of what I take to have been about 600 respondents on Tuesday and Wednesday of last week (from which we’d previously seen only this – the sample quoted is 646 persons over 14, the youngest of whom would not have been included in the voting intention figures), which shows Labor doing only slightly better than the overall trend. This poll has the Coalition leading 46.5 per cent to 35.5 per cent on the primary vote, 53.5-46.5 on previous-election preferences and 54.5-45.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, with the Greens on 9 per cent. The Labor primary vote is the highest they have recorded at any phone poll (Newspoll, Nielsen, Morgan or Galaxy) since the middle of March 2011, although the margin of error on this occasion is a high 4 per cent.

Going back to the middle of the last year, Labor’s respondent-allocated preference share from pollsters who publish figures for this has been 63.1 per cent from Nielsen polls, 61.8 per cent from Morgan phone polls (of which there have been five) and 49.7 per cent from Morgan face-to-face polls. At the 2010 election it was 65.7 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,746 comments on “Morgan: 52-48 to Coalition face-to-face”

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  2. [If you assume preferences would behave as they did at the previous election, as most pollsters do, that translates into a 51-49 lead for Labor. ]

    Bilbo, i am warming to you :kiss:

  7. Mari @ 4407 (previous thread)

    “Any change in climate is actually because we are moving closer to the sun, will crash into it in another 100000 years, the hairdresser said”don’t think we will have to worry about that” Who would be a hairdresser?”

    Indeed – and perfectly consistent with the following quote attributed to the late George Burns: ‘It’s a pity that the only people that know how to run the country are either driving cabs or cutting hair.’ George was also on the money regarding cab drivers given that the obnoxious blowhard fool Hadley is a former taxi driver.

  8. Cuppa

    [A goodish poll result? I suppose the media will attack Labor, hoping to reverse the climb. (/sarcasm}]
    This poll will be treated as if it doesn’t exist.

  12. Now I think of it, a 35.5 per cent primary vote is pretty good going for Labor from a phone poll – their highest in fact at any phone poll since mid-March (albeit that the margin of error’s high on this one). Essential Research hasn’t had Labor above 35 per cent since May.

  14. [Thought4rceThink Big

    Footage shows PM Gillard to be genuine human being with regard for others. Media in overdrive to correct this dangerous perception. #auspol

    2 hours ago FavoriteRetweetReply

    Retweeted by Snowy2307 ]

  15. [@jason_a_w: So after stumping up for Bolt last year, Menzies House wants to close the tent embassy because it’s “divisive”. Outstanding long troll.]

  16. Poroti, to the MSM it’s Newspoll, Nielsen (if it’s a Fairfax publication) or nothing. Oh, and Galaxy for the Terror.

  17. [CO
    Posted Friday, January 27, 2012 at 5:58 pm | Permalink
    Mari @ 4407 (previous thread)

    “Any change in climate is actually because we are moving closer to the sun, will crash into it in another 100000 years, the hairdresser said”don’t think we will have to worry about that” Who would be a hairdresser?”

    Indeed – and perfectly consistent with the following quote attributed to the late George Burns: ‘It’s a pity that the only people that know how to run the country are either driving cabs or cutting hair.’ George was also on the money regarding cab drivers given that the obnoxious blowhard fool Hadley is a former taxi driver.]

    Hadley, I am told, also came from around here too, I am ashamed to say. Fortunately I know my hairdresser very well, and she not the same as most of the people around here

  18. Given that the small phone poll in mentioned in the text is very close to current Essential results, the Face to Face one probably means very little.

  22. A good poll for Labor, best for some time.

    Obviously it is only a Morgan and the usual suspects will ignore it, not because of its volatility or inconsistency with other polls, but because it does not fit their memes.

    We can only hope another mainstream pollster picks up on the same trend so that at least some of the MSM “experts” change their negative reporting!

  24. Wasn’t the a question about the phone poll bit in the previous thread. Saying Morgan stuffed up and would update the page?

  25. In terms of the earlier discussion about the date of Australia Day, why not just move it to the third Monday in January?

    The Cronulla bogans won’t notice it’s no longer always on the 26th but will appreciate the long weekend, all while making a small concession to those who found the date offensive!

    Good idea?

  28. Political Editor for The Canberra times

    [rosspeakeCT Ross Peake
    Gillard has sacked her media person who passed on the whereabouts of Tony Abbott yesterday
    1 minute ago]

    I’ve no idea if this is true

  30. [We make our National day the formation of the Federation, not the arrival of the First Fleet. ]
    Why have public holidays at all. Lazy baskets. You should all be working 24 hours a day, 365 days a year. And paying the boss for the privilege of having a job. No wonder the country is in a mess.

    (I heard a rumour that there’s a position on the Board of Fins, Boewar Fascism Inc about to appear and I’m getting in early to let them know I have the right mentality for the role).

  32. Noticed this from the previous thread:

    [The Finnigans
    Posted Friday, January 27, 2012 at 5:42 pm | Permalink
    Tony Abbott, the he-man, tough guy, action-man, waiting to be rescued again by a damsel]

    This just cries-out for a caption. My suggestion:

    “I’m not wearing any underwear”

  33. [andrewtillett Andrew Tillett
    PM has sacked a media minder for telling someone who told someone at the tent embassy Tony Abbott was at the Lobby restaurant yesterday
    7 seconds ago]

  36. [latikambourke Latika Bourke
    Clarification. The media advisor told someone who then told the Aboriginal Protestors.
    10 seconds ago ]

  39. [latikambourke Latika Bourke
    But the Prime Minister’s spokesman says the staff member ‘did not in any way suggest or encourage violence or demonstration.’
    19 seconds ago]

  41. [couriermail couriermail.com.au
    Breaking: Gillard staffer has resigned over aboriginal tent embassy protest
    18 seconds ago]
    If true, it begs the question.
    How did Hadley know about before the PM?

  42. [AndrewBGreene Andrew Greene
    The Prime Minister has described the sacked media advisor’s action as “an error of judgement” #tentembassy
    42 seconds ago]

  43. [@latikambourke: Clarification. The media advisor told someone who then told the Aboriginal Protestors.]

    Fair dinkum, since when has Abbott’s whereabouts been covered by the Official Secrets Act?

  45. [Gillard has sacked her media person who passed on the whereabouts of Tony Abbott yesterday]

    So it was true?!

    Jeez, I thought it was just a tabloid beat up.

  46. [41

    Dee

    Posted Friday, January 27, 2012 at 6:32 pm | Permalink

    couriermail couriermail.com.au
    Breaking: Gillard staffer has resigned over aboriginal tent embassy protest
    18 seconds ago

    If true, it begs the question.
    How did Hadley know about before the PM?
    ]

    Unless the person the staffer spoke to was a Journo who decided to stir up trouble by telling the Tent Embassy ?

  47. [Unless the person the staffer spoke to was a Journo who decided to stir up trouble by telling the Tent Embassy ?]

    this could get interesting

  48. smithe,

    Fairly purile response comrade given the riot that ensued.

    Protection for political leaders is important.

  50. [47

    george

    Posted Friday, January 27, 2012 at 6:36 pm | Permalink

    Unless the person the staffer spoke to was a Journo who decided to stir up trouble by telling the Tent Embassy ?

    this could get interesting
    ]

    yep 🙂

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