Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

The latest Essential Research poll is unchanged on last week’s result, except that the Greens are up a point to 10 per cent – Labor is on 35 per cent, the Coalition is on 48 per cent, and two-party preferred is 54-46. Further questions relate to mandatory pre-commitment, with support at 62 per cent (one point higher than when they last asked the question in October) and opposition at 25 per cent (five points lower), and “additional” government assistance to the car industry (58 per cent support, 18 per cent oppose). As they do from time to time, Essential sought to establish whether a popular misconception played a role in the latter issue, in this case that the car industry employs more people than it actually does, but two-thirds of respondents simply said they didn’t know. Also covered: “most important roles of government”, best party to handle issues (Labor leads Liberal only on “providing support to the most disadvantaged”), and the status of manufacturing industry more generally.

UPDATE: We also had from Roy Morgan on Friday their occasional exercise of inquiring about the best leader for both parties, and it has Kevin Rudd’s lead over Julia Gillard widening from 31-24 to 33-19 since early November, and Malcolm Turnbull’s lead over Tony Abbott about stable (from 38-24 to 37-22). As usual, an anyone-but-the-incumbent sentiment from the parties’ opponents was a considerable factor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,496 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. Mmmmm….
    [PaulBongiorno Paul Bongiorno
    On Ten News,the AFP faces tough internal questions after yesterday’s Gillard protest. “Botched” and a “shemozzle” the flavour of it.
    2 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply]
    Gillard’s protest???????

  2. Poroti, interesting photo of Abbott. He often looks with his head turned. I wonder if a body language expert could elaborate?

  3. george
    Posted Friday, January 27, 2012 at 4:12 pm | Permalink
    @GrogsGamut: SMH takes the early lead for “Arsehat story of the year” – “What Julia Gillard’s Shoes Say About Her.” http://t.co/aneI8Lt0

    But George did you see the Poll at the bottom on the matter, quite interesting

  5. [Have SMH done a piece on what budgie smugglers say about Abbott?]

    Probably not. As Abbott’s budgies reveal, there’s not much to talk about there.

  6. [Have SMH done a piece on what budgie smugglers say about Abbott?]

    They tried, but all budgie smugglers gave a firm “No comment”.

    😆

  7. I had my hair cut, today it was a ladies salon, but a guy was in having his hair cut, the things I found out was:
    1) No need for a carbon Tax (no reason given)
    2) No climate change
    3) Any change in climate is actually because we are moving closer to the sun, will crash into it in another 100000 years, the hairdresser said”don’t think we will have to worry about that” Who would be a hairdresser?

  8. Abbott’s comment at the end of that GQ article is a hoot –

    [It’s one of the permanent frustrations of any politician that the focus is on the human interest side, and not the serious policy or intellectual side,” he said.]

    Really? That’s a bit rich coming from someone who manages to come up with a different fancy dress stunt each day while managing to be a complete policy vacuum. I’ll kindly refrain from commenting on Abbott’s ‘intellectual side’.

  9. Re Speedo wearers from “An International Psychology of Men” .

    [Males in the speedos reported higher state self objectification and body shame,and evidenced poorer performance on a math test.]

  10. i know it is a Morgan, but based on 2010 preferences, Labor is ahead

    [#Morgan F2F 2PP: Respondent allocated prefs ALP 48 (+2) L/NP 52 (-2), 2010 Election prefs 🙂 … ALP 51 (+2.5) L/NP 49 (-2.5) …]

  12. acquire you should send that to the university review,
    in. tas, they do wonderful satire about mid year.
    It pack s. the wonderful. royal theatre each year.
    also the chaser boys may like it

  13. Leone I have had to shorten your comment on Abbott’s budgies for the tweet hope you don”t mind, also couldn’t fit in where it came from, sorryu

  14. george,

    [ @GrogsGamut: SMH takes the early lead for “Arsehat story of the year” – “What Julia Gillard’s Shoes Say About Her.” http://t.co/aneI8Lt0 ]

    And the three pieces also featured on that page. WTF!

    Gingerella, come get your shoe
    World compares PM to Cinderella and Elvis
    Overreaction to Abbott’s comments

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/fashion/the-midas-touch-what-julia-gillards-shoes-say-about-her-20120127-1qkjc.html#ixzz1kdOWvWFd

  16. leone

    [poroti

    John Hewson told us all Abbott was innumerate, so the research on Speedos has to be right.]
    It struck me a bit odd having the “math test” comment in the part about speedos but as you point out they seem to be on to something 🙂

  18. [Mmmmm….

    PaulBongiorno Paul Bongiorno
    On Ten News,the AFP faces tough internal questions after yesterday’s Gillard protest. “Botched” and a “shemozzle” the flavour of it.
    2 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply

    Gillard’s protest???????]

    Well spotted, Dee. :lightbulb:

  22. [Re the poll.

    Dead cat bounce, people feel sorry for Gillard.]
    For what? If you’re talking about what happened yesterday the polll wasn’t conducted then.

  23. [leone
    Posted Friday, January 27, 2012 at 4:45 pm | Permalink
    mari

    That’s OK. I should start tweeting myself.]
    Please do we need as many people as we can, especially with quips like that one

  26. @PaulBongiorno How is it Gillard’s protest, Paul? The reaction was to Abbott’s statements. It’s his protest, if anyone’s.

  27. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    Tony Abbott’s definition of a he-man, tough guy, action man is waiting for a damsel to rescue him in distress #auspol
    13 seconds ago

  29. [Kersebleptes
    Posted Friday, January 27, 2012 at 4:44 pm | Permalink
    mari,

    Who would be a hairdresser?

    Maybe he has to go to a new place for every haircut…]

    Not around here remember I live in Pruneface Hartsuyker’s electorate, this guy would be a solid Nat supporter of course.
    Mexicanbeamer re the sun consuming the earth in 4 1/2 billion years, I am preparing my emergency kit

  31. mari

    [Mexicanbeamer re the sun consuming the earth in 4 1/2 billion years, I am preparing my emergency kit]
    It will be the mother of all climate change debates !

  32. [TONY Abbott has posed for the February issue of GQ Australia]

    To my copy of PhotoShop: “All in good time my precious, all in good time…”

  36. [Latika Bourke
    @latikambourke
    Prime Minister Julia Gillard has no more information than what she read in today’s newspapers about Fair Work’s investigation into Thomson.]

  37. The media don’t miss “any” opportunity to milk a story for a bit of doubt that the casual reader or viewer will automatically sheet back to Julia Gillard or Labor.

    Disgusting grubs.

    [It has been claimed a member of Ms Gillard’s staff told protesters where to find Mr Abbott.

    Fellow protest spokeswoman Barbara Shaw admitted she passed on information to the crowd about Mr Abbott’s whereabouts {{ but would not say directly whether the person who gave it to her worked for Ms Gillard. }}

    “Whoever told me was a member of the public,” she said.

    “There were a lot of people here yesterday.

    “I just heard Tony Abbott’s name.” ]
    http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=8409904

  38. [#Morgan F2F 2PP: Respondent allocated prefs ALP 48 (+2) L/NP 52 (-2), 2010 Election prefs 🙂 … ALP 51 (+2.5) L/NP 49 (-2.5) …]

    Yay!! Even it is Morgan F2F, I’ll take it.

  39. Front and centre of the presser, in a green t-shirt, Paul Coe, the man who admitted to trying to deceive his ex-wife (under oath no less) concerning a property settlement following their separation.

  42. Frank (4428) – the article refers to a Ben Wyatt:

    “WA Aboriginal MP Ben Wyatt fears the “deplorable” conduct of protesters in Canberra yesterday will backfire by creating sympathy for Tony Abbott’s “intolerant” comments.”

    Whi is Ben Wyatt?

  47. [Well derrrr Latika. If the msm make ‘news’ up then of course the PM won’t know about it until she reads it. ]

    Hope someone can tweet that to LB!

  48. [Lynchpin

    Posted Friday, January 27, 2012 at 5:06 pm | Permalink

    Frank (4428) – the article refers to a Ben Wyatt:

    “WA Aboriginal MP Ben Wyatt fears the “deplorable” conduct of protesters in Canberra yesterday will backfire by creating sympathy for Tony Abbott’s “intolerant” comments.”

    Whi is Ben Wyatt?
    ]

    Ken’s Cousin,

    But Ken’s silence is telling

  49. [4438
    confessions

    #Morgan F2F 2PP: Respondent allocated prefs ALP 48 (+2) L/NP 52 (-2), 2010 Election prefs 🙂 … ALP 51 (+2.5) L/NP 49 (-2.5) …

    Yay!! Even it is Morgan F2F, I’ll take it.]

    Me too. Seems like falling interest rates and a spell of relatively peaceful politics are working in favour of the Government……and that the pokies stuff has had no discernible influence on anything (why would it?)…..

Comments are closed.

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