Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

The latest Essential Research poll is unchanged on last week’s result, except that the Greens are up a point to 10 per cent – Labor is on 35 per cent, the Coalition is on 48 per cent, and two-party preferred is 54-46. Further questions relate to mandatory pre-commitment, with support at 62 per cent (one point higher than when they last asked the question in October) and opposition at 25 per cent (five points lower), and “additional” government assistance to the car industry (58 per cent support, 18 per cent oppose). As they do from time to time, Essential sought to establish whether a popular misconception played a role in the latter issue, in this case that the car industry employs more people than it actually does, but two-thirds of respondents simply said they didn’t know. Also covered: “most important roles of government”, best party to handle issues (Labor leads Liberal only on “providing support to the most disadvantaged”), and the status of manufacturing industry more generally.

UPDATE: We also had from Roy Morgan on Friday their occasional exercise of inquiring about the best leader for both parties, and it has Kevin Rudd’s lead over Julia Gillard widening from 31-24 to 33-19 since early November, and Malcolm Turnbull’s lead over Tony Abbott about stable (from 38-24 to 37-22). As usual, an anyone-but-the-incumbent sentiment from the parties’ opponents was a considerable factor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,496 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. [Prime Minister Julia Gillard has no more information than what she read in today’s newspapers about Fair Work’s investigation into Thomson.]
    So who is leaking info from FWA?

  2. [poroti
    Posted Friday, January 27, 2012 at 4:58 pm | Permalink
    mari

    Mexicanbeamer re the sun consuming the earth in 4 1/2 billion years, I am preparing my emergency kit

    It will be the mother of all climate change debates !]

    I reckon Lord Monkton is already preparing?

  4. OMG with preferences the proper way, its 51/49 to Labor. Is this the first poll is ages with Labor in front?? Like to see someone, anyone report this

  6. the last Morgan poll I can recall attracting media comment was the one which had ALP 57-43 ahead 10 days or so before the last Federal Election

  8. [Kersebleptes
    Posted Friday, January 27, 2012 at 5:00 pm | Permalink
    mari,

    Ah, I see!

    Solid he might be, but there are obviously a few holes in the fence round his top paddock…]

    You won’t have an argument with me with that comment, bur around here you would, eg NBN it would be good but of course it wouldn’t change my vote, before the last election.

  9. The Fairfax story on Thomson is weird, all the people involved have denied the essence of it.

    I do note the author has form for porkies. Secret tapes anyone.

  11. When all the main polls (Newspoll, Neilsen, and especially Essential) have Labor in front or parity at the same time, then I’ll get excited. And then only after Possum or Andrew Catsaras aggregate it and tell us the ALP’s really in front.

    Morgan, although the trend is good, is definitely not to be trusted on a poll to poll basis.

  14. ru,

    Given the “adverse” report was allegedly sent to Thomsom a couple of weeks ago and Thomson has deliberately got on to the front foot with his media commentary since, you’d have to think he’s not paticularly concerned.

  17. I reckon Abbott’s nuttiness is biting. The country seemed at-peace and all-serene while Abbott was off-duty – what a forgotten pleasure that was. My first reaction to his re-appearance was “Oh no. Not you again! Get back in the playpen! Can’t you leave us alone!” Really, Abbott is like the annoying brat in the backseat who just won’t shut up (!!)….only 5 minutes down the road and everyone wants to jump out. What a horror he is.

  19. [@mumbletwits
    Peter Brent
    First federal Newspoll of the year this weekend. Get ’em while they’re hot.
    33 minutes ago]

    I am not expecting it to be be good. See the unmoved Essential poll at the top of this blog?

  22. Leroy

    [Morgan, although the trend is good, is definitely not to be trusted on a poll to poll basis.]
    True but he does provide the occassional hit of psephological coca for tiring Labor supporters ?

  23. Leroy @4461:

    [Morgan, although the trend is good, is definitely not to be trusted on a poll to poll basis.]

    Indeed and especially not when it is a Face to Face poll.

  28. I don’t know about uncomfortable, most of them make him look like an extra from a 1950’s B movie about gangsters. Photo 3 – I think – makes him look like a chimp with head lice.

    Someone should run a caption competition for the lot of them.

  29. [CTar1
    Posted Friday, January 27, 2012 at 5:24 pm | Permalink
    Mari @4452

    Do you think Monkton’s eyes will pop out when he cooks?]

    Yes

  30. [The Fairfax story on Thomson is weird, all the people involved have denied the essence of it.

    A leak or bait?]

    Or Abbott’s journo mates doing him a favour and using made-up ‘news’ to draw attention away from that riot and back to Thomson. This would also give Abbott something to rant about when parliament resumes.

  32. George

    They wouldn’t give him the cover. If they did, sales would nose dive. Way too polarising and sour. They might have thought about it, but looking at those photos, from a marketing perspective: no!

    Interesting that they made his photos black and white. That’s usually used in magazines to hide unattractiveness. In Tony’s case, I think it also signifies his time period

  37. [A leak or bait?]

    Kate McClymont has cost her employer $1 million in the past for “A DELIBERATELY inaccurate newspaper article ”

    [“Not only was the source of the allegations hearsay but it was a remote and unreliable form of hearsay. The dangers inherent in such material would have been known to the journalists but not necessarily obvious to the reader,” Justice Hoeben said.]

    I reckon sensation.

  38. [DavidWH

    Posted Friday, January 27, 2012 at 5:32 pm | Permalink

    Isn’t Ben in the WA Labor shadow ministry?

    Just wondering.
    ]

    Yup Just appointed Shadoww Minister for Indigenous Affairs and Native Title.

    and As I said his cousin Ken is silent

  40. Abbott:

    It’s one of the permanent frustrations of any politician that the focus is on the human interest side, and not the serious policy or intellectual side,” he said.

    Translation: The media aren’t doing their job. They can pretend that I’m a credible alternative, they can pretend that I’m sincere about good governance, they can pretend that I don’t just say no all the time, they can pretend that I’m worth listening to, and they can pretend that I’m a conviction politician. So why can’t they pretend that I have policies? I’m looking like an idiot here.

  42. [Interesting that they made his photos black and white. That’s usually used in magazines to hide unattractiveness.]

    When you see Abbott close up his face does have several imperfections like pock marks and deep wrinkles.

    But you’d think they could hide those with decent make up.

  43. shellbell
    Posted Friday, January 27, 2012 at 5:05 pm | Permalink

    Front and centre of the presser, in a green t-shirt, Paul Coe, the man who admitted to trying to deceive his ex-wife (under oath no less) concerning a property settlement following their separation.

    Wasn’t he also involved in the *occupation* and protest on Cockatoo Island a few years back?

  44. [confessions

    Posted Friday, January 27, 2012 at 5:42 pm | Permalink

    Interesting that they made his photos black and white. That’s usually used in magazines to hide unattractiveness.

    When you see Abbott close up his face does have several imperfections like pock marks and deep wrinkles.

    But you’d think they could hide those with decent make up.
    ]

    Or photoshop 🙂

  45. [Morgan polling is that unreliable I can’t get excited.]
    It is hard to get excited over it but when you have one polling organisation putting Labor’s PV at 38% and another at 35% coinsistently (Essential) it does put a question mark or two against those polls showing a PV of 30% and less.

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