Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

The latest Essential Research poll is unchanged on last week’s result, except that the Greens are up a point to 10 per cent – Labor is on 35 per cent, the Coalition is on 48 per cent, and two-party preferred is 54-46. Further questions relate to mandatory pre-commitment, with support at 62 per cent (one point higher than when they last asked the question in October) and opposition at 25 per cent (five points lower), and “additional” government assistance to the car industry (58 per cent support, 18 per cent oppose). As they do from time to time, Essential sought to establish whether a popular misconception played a role in the latter issue, in this case that the car industry employs more people than it actually does, but two-thirds of respondents simply said they didn’t know. Also covered: “most important roles of government”, best party to handle issues (Labor leads Liberal only on “providing support to the most disadvantaged”), and the status of manufacturing industry more generally.

UPDATE: We also had from Roy Morgan on Friday their occasional exercise of inquiring about the best leader for both parties, and it has Kevin Rudd’s lead over Julia Gillard widening from 31-24 to 33-19 since early November, and Malcolm Turnbull’s lead over Tony Abbott about stable (from 38-24 to 37-22). As usual, an anyone-but-the-incumbent sentiment from the parties’ opponents was a considerable factor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,496 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition”

Comments Page 1 of 90
1 2 … 90

  1. [Further questions relate to mandatory pre-commitment, with support at 62 per cent (one point higher than when they last asked the question in October) ]

    That’s great news because it comes despite all the negative media the govt’s had over pokies the last week and a half.

  2. Sprocket previous thread

    [just looking at the UN Convention on Law of the Sea – referred to this morning by Admiral Barrie as being primamry in all ship commander’s minds:………………………

    I believe Australia is a signatory to this convention, and as much as these things can be, it is binding. Tony Abbott is promoting an illegal act in instructing the Navy to tow boats out to sea, and the (real) Admiral has challenged this.

    Admiral Chris Barrie was the Chief of Defence force with regards to the children overboard saga and Tony Abbott was a member of the lying filth that pushed the lie to garner votes.]

    I believe he was given the option of saying the children were being thrown overboard or tender his resignation. At the time he chose the former and i believe he later on regretted not having stood his ground.

    On the turn back the boats issue Chris Barrie, along with lots of other sailors, has a close up knowledge of what may or may not happen. He was a ships crew during the Indonesian confrontation of Malaysia during the sixties.

    Having been there and also being a junior officer he would have a first hand knowledge of what happened in places like the Malacca Straits where the Indonesians were trying to cross to Malaya in 14 foot tinnies under cover of darkness.

    Each of the SEATO ships had a minimum of one Malayan Policeman and one interpreter on board and the ships operated in a black out situation.

    Any other craft in the area picked up on radar, were then intercepted, called alongside and the occupants were brought on board for identification and questioning.

    This almost always was a courteous and humane process.

    During one of these interceptions a Royal Navy minesweeper called a boat alongside and before the occupants of the boat went aboard the minesweeper, one of the occupants activated a grenade and threw it on board the minesweeper. Whether he aimed for it or not the grenade went down the funnel and exploded in the engine room killing two sailors.

    After that scenario the further interceptions involved calling the boat to halt at a distance, that a thrown grenade could not reach the vessel, and the occupants were asked to jump in and swim to the ship and climb a ladder where they were unceremoniously hauled on board, strip searched and interrogated.

    Fast forward to the village idiot threatening to tow back the boats and without stretching ones imagination very hard, one can easily visualise how people could easily be killed from both sides of the equation.

    Lets say a boat is intercepted and the engine is sabotaged. The AS are transferred to the RAN ship then personell are sent to investigate/repair the boat so that it can be turned back. The only persons on board are ours, the AS don’t want to be turned round so they have also booby trapped the boat with explosives and before a full search can be done the booby trap is set off with a small hand held walkie talkie and our guys were the only ones on board at the time.

    I will be on Chris Barries side on this occasion and also agree that Greg Barns, Barrister and Chris Murphy, lawyer. have it right as well.

    [BarnsGreg Greg Barns
    #auspol Liberals Scott Morrison follows his leader on the illegal plan to turn back boats. It is simply state sanctioned murder.
    22 Jan Favorite Retweet Reply]

    [chrismurphys chris murphy
    Australia Murder Inc?God’s gift TonyAbbott 2 ‘turn back all boats’.Floundering,leaking,full of families.Makes killers of us all #auspol]

  8. So no change. The political waters are somewhat becalmed at this time of year, which is understandable.

    Predictably, Abbott is once again ramping up the rhetoric against Thompson and Slipper, thinking he is back to being a heartbeat away from the lodge.
    Sigh…it’s going to be ground hog day in politics this year.

  9. DavidWH:

    Most people are still in summer mode where they are eschewing the nightly news in favour evenings in the outdoors.

  10. Henry

    Unless the govt come fully loaded to parliament in a fortnight, i may give QT a miss. It will be groundhog day alright!

  12. Sky go from Abbott presser about a tainted member of parliament to an interview with Sophie.

    Is this meant to be a joke?

  15. victoria:

    I think the technical term for it is ‘damned by the Sky News ticker’! They still had the ‘tainted MP’ banner up as they went to a shot of Sophie sitting there.

  17. [They still had the ‘tainted MP’ banner up as they went to a shot of Sophie sitting there.]

    fess, so they were factual for once?

  18. Mr Thompson – the gift which keeps on giving. He is reported to have opined that the result is what the NSW Labor MPs have been after for 12 months, because it is ‘good policy.’

    IMHO, he has just hammered the last nail into Ms Gillard’s political coffin.

    Just think. Ms Gillard could have put Mr Wilkie’s package to parliament. Mr Abbott would have blocked it, to the chagrin of 62% of the electorate. There would have been a compromise we have now and Mr Wilkie would be putting it about that Ms Gillard did everything she could but that Mr Abbott was the wrecker.

    We would also have been focusing on Mr Abbott’s idiotic policy of having the RAN repairing asylum seekers boats at sea.

    Instead the public discourse is now about how Ms Gillard relies on the wonderful Mr Thompson to hang onto government.

    Dreadful, dreadful stuff. How to f**k up the Year of the Dragon from the get-go.

  20. Not sure where My Say got the idea Mick wasn’t pro Labor. From his other posts, I gather Mick is a Richmond barracker. As Professor Harry Turner used to say about his upbringing:

    [Two things were compulsory. You voted Labor and you barracked for Richmond. I complied.]

    So of course Mick would have to be Labor. Followed them myself until the game went national (went to their premiership GF in 74), but then reverted to my native grass roots and followed Adelaide.

  23. I can only assume the PM couldn’t let it go to a vote because some NSW Labor MPs with the pro-pokies’ lobby fist up their butts would have crossed the floor. So it is probably the best the PM could come up with, but it is a poor outcome. And the weak-gutted LNP should not get off lightly in this either.

  26. Boerwar @18

    i agree and can not believe the good luck Tony Abbott receives from Gillard/Labor. It is magical how every time tony puts his foot in his mouth Labor seem to have a releasable shit storm ready to go to take the lime light. I wish Abbott would go back on leave and let Labor dig its own grave and the greens to continue slash away at the back of labor.

  28. [Ms Gillard could have put Mr Wilkie’s package to parliament. Mr Abbott would have blocked it, to the chagrin of 62% of the electorate. There would have been a compromise we have now and Mr Wilkie would be putting it about that Ms Gillard did everything she could but that Mr Abbott was the wrecker.]

    I actually hadn’t thought of it this way. I think this is a valid proposition.

  30. haha I come back and PB has gone to hell…

    @Boerwar/21,

    Would you rather Abbott in the lodge then? I’m assuming you do, considering you’re statements as of late.

    Gillard has a problem, and it’s tough to deal with a minority gov.

  31. Have to disagree Boerwar – I think the PM did the right thing by calling Wilkie’s bluff.
    I would suggest that the legislation for mandatory pre commitment is at least 6 months away. In that time clubs Aust and the feral media would have continued their attacks on the plan. Resentment in the marginal labor seats would continue to grow in this time.

    And then, when the plan fails to get through the house of reps, the media will see this is as a vote of no confidence in the govt and amplify their govt in crisis spin.

    Nip it in the bud now, get the trial happening and move on to other stuff. This issue was consuming too much time and oxygen.

  32. BW
    [Mr Abbott would have blocked it, to the chagrin of 62% of the electorate. There would have been a compromise we have now and Mr Wilkie would be putting it about that Ms Gillard did everything she could but that Mr Abbott was the wrecker.]

    Can’t agree with that – it would have been blocked and we’d be hearing for months about how weak the Govt is. Wiklie would have complained that the Govt didn’t try hard enough and that he was removing his support and a few months would have elapsed without any progress.

    It’s still possible that it may have been a better move politically.
    Thomson speaking out on anything now is a mistake IMO.

  34. [$36m pokies trial compo

    Canberra’s licensed clubs will share at least $36million worth of compensation and the Federal Government will pay to upgrade or replace some of their older poker machines if a trial of mandatory pre-commitment technology goes ahead…

    Venues would be paid in monthly instalments a combined $36million participation fee: 20 per cent of their 2010-11 gross gaming machine revenue.]
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/news/local/news/general/36m-pokies-trial-compo/2428403.aspx

    How much was the compensation package to the tobacco companies for the change in law to plain packaging?

  35. [Ms Gillard could have put Mr Wilkie’s package to parliament. Mr Abbott would have blocked it, to the chagrin of 62% of the electorate. There would have been a compromise we have now and Mr Wilkie would be putting it about that Ms Gillard did everything she could but that Mr Abbott was the wrecker.]

    I might be wrong, but I thought it was near suicide for the Govt to put up legislation that is defeated – ie leads to the easy charge that the Govy can’t govern and hence fits the no confidence stuff Abbott bangs on about.

  36. Gus,
    Not half as disappointed as I am. I don’t blame the PM, more I am disappointed that we have politicians on all sides of the house who are either ignorant, gutless or bought & sold.

    I am very pessimistic about how the results of the trial will be portrayed and what action will follow it. The clubs lobby is winning and as a result more people’s lives will be ruined.

  37. [Can’t agree with that – it would have been blocked and we’d be hearing for months about how weak the Govt is. Wiklie would have complained that the Govt didn’t try hard enough and that he was removing his support and a few months would have elapsed without any progress.]

    This.

  38. DavidWH:

    I’ve noticed that too. Not that I mind; the last time I saw one of her pressers she was practically bawling her eyes out over boats. Most unedifying.

  40. The pokies debacle shows that, once again, the biggest political issue in this country (by far) is the creeping political power of the corporate sector. Soon we will end up as a corporate donorocracy like the United States. Yet nobody seems to have grasped this issue (not even the greens). Nobody is talking about it. Nobody is asking the legitimate question: why are corporations (which are just legal entities with sociopathic tendencies) are allowed to donate to political parties and run political advertising campaigns. Allowing them to do so just cheapens our democracy to the detriment of real citizens.

  41. I don’t know why, Gus. Puff has been unequivocal in calling for something to be done. Boer War and Socrates raise the moral dilemma.

    It may be the only option open to JG, given the apparent NSW revolt. It is interesting that the two other indies were very reluctant to support. There are other influences at work, not all the clubs nasty public campaign.

    The only other option would be to put it to parliament to fail on the floor of the house, which might have been better publicly. But I assume the PM doesn’t want to expose her MPs to more targeted action.

  42. [It may be the only option open to JG, given the apparent NSW revolt. It is interesting that the two other indies were very reluctant to support. There are other influences at work, not all the clubs nasty public campaign.]

    I think it was really one of those situations where there were no winning actions, unfortunately. All JG could do was try to minimise the loss.

  43. BOERWAR – Totally correct. I’ve been a very strong believer that Julia would win the next election, if she showed some spine. But she’s a goner now.

  44. [How much was the compensation package to the tobacco companies for the change in law to plain packaging?]

    None because Labor does not own a major ciggie company. Funny there is now compensation for this trial for the loss of money incurred by the “Canberra Labor Clubs”

  45. [Nobody is asking the legitimate question: why are corporations (which are just legal entities with sociopathic tendencies) are allowed to donate to political parties and run political advertising campaigns.]

    Labor tried to get political donations reforms, but was blocked by the LNP. Does anyone know if they’ve since tried again to get those reforms through the current parliament? They should if they haven’t.

  47. Ms Gillard could have put Mr Wilkie’s package to parliament. Mr Abbott would have blocked it, to the chagrin of 62% of the electorate. There would have been a compromise we have now and Mr Wilkie would be putting it about that Ms Gillard did everything she could but that Mr Abbott was the wrecker.

    No. She would have been lambasted for wasting everyone’s time when it was obvious from the start that the bill wouldn’t pass. She would be accused of “playing politics” with the pokies issue. She would be accused of holding up the process because she’s “not genuine” about pokies reform. She would be labelled “weak” and accused of being at the mercy of an independent, when she should have taken control of the issue. Parliament would be declared unworkable from the usual sources because one independent can wield so much power over the government. The whole Slipper thing would be dragged out again, and there would be complaints that she had the numbers to do it her way and squibbed on it.

    “Where is the genuine leadership?” people would cry, to which Abbott would stick up his hand. And half of PB would call her an idiot for paying too much attention to Wilkie instead of doing something, why doesn’t she just do something??

    Wilkie would probably accuse her of walking away from his agreement anyway, seeing as it wasn’t just to put it to parliament but to stand by it. There’s nothing in that agreement about giving it a go and then altering it to get through parliament.

    It’s all very well saying this approach has reflected badly on the PM. Every approach would do that. The whole thing is set up so that no matter what she does the howls come thick and fast. Haven’t you been paying attention?

  49. GD
    [Not sure where My Say got the idea Mick wasn’t pro Labor. From his other posts, I gather Mick is a Richmond barracker. As Professor Harry Turner used to say about his upbringing:

    Two things were compulsory. You voted Labor and you barracked for Richmond. I complied.

    So of course Mick would have to be Labor. Followed them myself until the game went national (went to their premiership GF in 74), but then reverted to my native grass roots and followed Adelaide.]

    If I recall his eulogies correctly, Captn Blood even stood for the State Seat of Richmond as an ALP candidate.

  50. Windsor and Oakeshott – everything to lose and nothing to gain on pokies. They’d be happy to not have to declare their hand – crisis adverted for them.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 1 of 90
1 2 … 90