The latest Essential Research poll is unchanged on last week’s result, except that the Greens are up a point to 10 per cent – Labor is on 35 per cent, the Coalition is on 48 per cent, and two-party preferred is 54-46. Further questions relate to mandatory pre-commitment, with support at 62 per cent (one point higher than when they last asked the question in October) and opposition at 25 per cent (five points lower), and “additional” government assistance to the car industry (58 per cent support, 18 per cent oppose). As they do from time to time, Essential sought to establish whether a popular misconception played a role in the latter issue, in this case that the car industry employs more people than it actually does, but two-thirds of respondents simply said they didn’t know. Also covered: “most important roles of government”, best party to handle issues (Labor leads Liberal only on “providing support to the most disadvantaged”), and the status of manufacturing industry more generally.
UPDATE: We also had from Roy Morgan on Friday their occasional exercise of inquiring about the best leader for both parties, and it has Kevin Rudd’s lead over Julia Gillard widening from 31-24 to 33-19 since early November, and Malcolm Turnbull’s lead over Tony Abbott about stable (from 38-24 to 37-22). As usual, an anyone-but-the-incumbent sentiment from the parties’ opponents was a considerable factor.
I recall when the PM was trying to push the changes to the Migration Act through HOR and everyone was screaming that she should just leave it and move on as the changes would fail.
She was accused then of going too far and that she lost the ”politics ” of the issue by trying to push the vote.
She may make mistakes but she does not make them twice as far as I am concerned.
Think Big @ 32
“Can’t agree with that – it would have been blocked and we’d be hearing for months about how weak the Govt is. Wiklie would have complained that the Govt didn’t try hard enough and that he was removing his support and a few months would have elapsed without any progress”
Indeed but worse than that Wilkie’s actual position was that he would withdraw support from the Government if the Bill didn’t get up (ie introducing wasn’t enough for this unstable clown).
Furthermore, it will be interesting to test Wilkie’s claim that some Liberals would have supported the original proposal when the compromise legislation comes to the vote. If no Liberal votes for the watered down approach (Abbott has already said he opposes it) what chance was there for any to support Wilkie’s preferred option?
[I’ve been a very strong believer that Julia would win the next election, if she showed some spine.]
Are you serious? She is the most courageous PM since Keating.
Yes, and I have been abused and called a wowser for doing so on this forum. I assume that local MPs who looked like supporting reform were subjected to the same and worse.
Tigers supporter. That explains a lot. I prefer lions.
BH @ 5636
There was actually a health warning our recently on the potential to pick up infections from the fish or their water.
Seemed a bit of an over-reaction to me but worth checking out.
Apparently the fish will eat the dead skin off your feet. So put away the pumice or whatever you use now.
Lynchpin – all of the courage she has shown has been forced upon her by her position in a minority govt. But the moment slipper gave her a bit of air, she went straight of political pragmatism. That should tell you something.
BW
Crikey!!!!!!!!!!
I agree with you!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Rosa
Brilliant point re doncracy
bemused @ 56
Footrott and death certainly follow 🙂
Doyley:
I was only just thinking of the analogy with praise for her in not putting the MA amendments to parliament with criticism of her not doing so with pokies.
As I predicted last night, it’s a Giants vs Patriots Superbowl.
Go Giants! 😀
[Indeed but worse than that Wilkie’s actual position was that he would withdraw support from the Government if the Bill didn’t get up (ie introducing wasn’t enough for this unstable clown).]
Im sorry, your dear leader signed this deal that agreed to pre commitment. It was your dear leader who agreed to the terms to win government and prevent her and labor being booted out after one term. Leave Wilkie alone, the dear leader should be the one asked the hard questions as to why she reneged on her written word.
[all of the courage she has shown has been forced upon her by her position in a minority govt]
Any chance you can elaborate on this rosa? In all honesty, I’m struggling to understand what you mean by courage being “forced” on someone. So under the same circumstances (minority government) Tony Abbott would have shown the same courage as the PM has, as it would have been “forced” upon him? Really?
rosa:
The PM shows courage everyday. How many other political leaders have you seen refuse to melt in the face of such abusive vilification from so many quarters, including our mainstream media?
I can’t think of one.
From a purely political view, Wilkie has set himself up for a fall long term.
If he’d claimed the compromise, he could then have claimed the end result.
As it is, he’s going to support the compromise by voting for it in Parliament whilst rejecting it because it represents a breaking of the original deal.
So – assuming we end up with some kind of reform, as appears likely – he won’t be able to claim any credit for it; it will be an achievement of the government.
zoom
i have a niggling feeling wilkie is playing to his electorate
[i have a niggling feeling wilkie is playing to his electorate]
Either way, he’s not playing politics very well
Puff, sorry but that’s just nonsense about NSW Right ALP members crossing the floor, it would be the end of their careers and entitlements. Surely you don’t fall for people like Thomson’s assessment of their own importance?
The critical vote that the Wilkie plan wasnt getting was Tony Windsor – clearly a man of integrity who would never fit in the NSW ALP Right.
confessions – they’ve all got thick hides.
I continue to be puzzled by the “Legislate and Die” attitude of some PBers.
On the basis of the track record of the MSM, the failure to get the Wilkie-based legislation up, would not been seen has his failure, but a catastrophic failure of the Gillard government to “read the political signs”
As if it needs repeating, this is not a Labor government with a majority of 25 seats. It is a government hanging in on next to nothing by way of working majority.
I am amazed it has lasted almost half was through its natural term – and has done so by the work of JG and some pretty good ministers.
On the other hand, I see Friend of Labor, Manne, in Drum, putting the boots into JG and suggesting the only hope for Labor is to bring Rudd back.
Quite frankly, I would hope JG goes right to the next election due, and if she is defeated so be it.
If the Oz people really want TA then so be that too.
At least, for three years we can have a field day here, waiting for the next White Knight (like a Bob Hawke) ready to come in an “save” us from Abbott and the conservatives!
Gusface @ 39
I agree.
rosa @40
[The pokies debacle shows that, once again, the biggest political issue in this country (by far) is the creeping political power of the corporate sector. Soon we will end up as a corporate donorocracy like the United States.]
Interesting comparison with the US
Another aspect of the US (possibly not unrelated) is the apparent difficulty of bold decisionmaking by the state, with the division between President/executive, HoR, Senate and Supreme Court as well as states (added to by citizen propositions in some particulalry lucky jurisdictions). (“bold” often meaning measures for the common good, with private negative consequences)
With the minority government, we have a taste of this potential gridlock of decisionmaking.
It is almost a miracle that anything substantive gets done
[i have a niggling feeling wilkie is playing to his electorate]
I think Wilkie has just declared ‘open season’ on himself.
Any bounty hunter taking his scalp will get a reward.
gus,
Wilkie gained 21% of the primary vote which was about 14k votes. Only won because he finished third behind the Greens.
If he’s talking to his constituency he’s talking to imaginary friends.
He’s toast and can enjoy another eighteen months of notoriety and then sod off.
[“We shouldn’t be trashing our democracy by doing compromise deals and backroom deals outside of the chamber,” Mr Wilkie told ABC Local Radio in Hobart.]
Does Wilkie realise how stupid this comment is? He did the backroom deal, he could have just said I support the ALP or Libs or whatever, but no he forced an auction for his vote.
Aguirre @ 47
Agree.
Put in shorter form: It was the worst possible action until you examine the alternatives.
(Apologies to Winston Churchill)
George – Are you saying that if Julia had formed a majority govt after the last election we would have a carbon tax right now? And the only reason we had a mining tax was because labor caved in before the last election. The NBN was also a hold-over from the last govt. So name me one major reform that Julia dreamed up herself and has pushed through?
I agree with what you say Tricot. The NSW disease of changing leaders again before the election would be very damaging for Labor in the long term. Given Gillard has done all the heavy lifting so far, she should take the party to the election. Any other aspiring leader can take their chances after that.
Don’t forget Wilkie only got 24% primary in Denison, so next election he will be in trouble. A shift to the Senate (where he can join SenX) would be on the cards, as name recognition is a big deal in Tassie
[George – Are you saying that if Julia had formed a majority govt after the last election we would have a carbon tax right now? And the only reason we had a mining tax was because labor caved in before the last election. The NBN was also a hold-over from the last govt.]
Hey rosa, so you now have a crystal ball as well? All politics is a compromise. The only question you need to ask is, is that compromise for the better or for the worse?
[So name me one major reform that Julia dreamed up herself and has pushed through?]
Name me one that any ONE politician dreams up for himself/herself? Seriously, your posturing is bullshit.
Lynchpin @ 53
Gee, that’s saying a lot. How many were there and who were they?
I guess what you are really saying is you prefer her to Kev.
btw, I put the twitter meltdowns to the NFL semi finals in the USA
Boerwar, your alternative suggestion assumes that no Labor MP would cross the floor. I wonder whether this is what stopped the PM doing it.
If you analyse why Labor managed to crawl back from the dead last year it was for one reason, and one reason only: Labor looked like it stood for something and was prepared to push through reform. I think that basically was a result of circumstances thrust upon JG (the deals she made with independents). But it happened nonetheless. But that is all over now. We’re back to retail politics and (I assume) a corresponding slide in the polls (and a huge fillip to the greens).
[Don’t forget Wilkie only got 24% primary in Denison, so next election he will be in trouble. A shift to the Senate (where he can join SenX) would be on the cards, as name recognition is a big deal in Tassie]
I was thinking a similar thing last week. Wilkie is trying to build cross party support for a Senate spot.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/naval-officers-would-disobey-orders-to-turn-back-asylum-seeker-vessels-under-an-abbott-government/story-fn59niix-1226251160538
This is pretty fair reporting, but just check out some of the comments, you despair sometimes .
tricot,
Actually, Gillards actions of late have actually blunted the thrust of Rudd. Apparently, the reason much of the discontent levelled against Gillard is through the NSW right who were feeling not much love because of the belting they were getting from the Clubs.
Enter Rudd with promises of having Slipper in the bag so that the Govt no longer needed to rely on Wilkie and his “precommittment of doom”.
Funny how Rudd comes up with ideas and Gillard actually implements them.
[George – Are you saying that if Julia had formed a majority govt after the last election we would have a carbon tax right now? And the only reason we had a mining tax was because labor caved in before the last election. The NBN was also a hold-over from the last govt. So name me one major reform that Julia dreamed up herself and has pushed through?]
Well, you’re welcome to place the COALation ahead of the ALP when you vote next.
George: OK, name me one major reform that Julia was dreamed up when Julia was in the same room.
[So name me one major reform that Julia dreamed up herself and has pushed through?]
200 pieces of legislation, including a price on carbon. She got them through. It is easy to “dream them up” as you say. It’s another thing to legislate. The PM has done the hard yards, there is no mistaking that.
The problem is not Mr Wilkie. The problem is not Mr Abbott. The problem is not the pokies industry. The problem is not the gamblers.
The problem is the catastrophic handling coming from Ms Gillard.
She promised what she couldn’t deliver – internally (the NSW Labor MPs according to Mr Thompson who may well be having a belated go at telling the truth about something) or – externally – the Indies who know political death when it hovers over them with a scythe.
Having promised what she could not deliver her manner of handling the non-delivery could not have been worse.
She’s lost me.
[We’re back to retail politics and (I assume) a corresponding slide in the polls (and a huge fillip to the greens).]
Yep crystal ball stuff. The fist post pokie poll shows it had a zero effect.
MICK – No, I’ll be putting the greens ahead of labor.
[George: OK, name me one major reform that Julia was dreamed up when Julia was in the same room.]
I’m not pretending to be a fly, are you?
[Apparently the fish will eat the dead skin off your feet. So put away the pumice or whatever you use now.]
victoria – now, how do I get them into the dam cos it would save on podiatry for OH.
Wilkie’s problem on pokie reform is that his pale green colours have shone through.
It doesn’t matter the depth; dark, light, pale, lime, peppermint, spearment even, keep away from anything remotely resembling Green, they’re all bad news 😐
No, I think he can. He said he’d support them through the parliament, so he can still lay claim to them.
Probably the most gutless thing he’s done is to say he’ll support them, by the way. You either stand up for what you believe in or you support the compromise. You can’t have it both ways.
If he’d just said a flat “No, I won’t vote for that,” I’d be annoyed at him but I’d understand his principles. But by saying, “Oh yes, that’s good policy but I reserve the right to bitch and moan about it,” he’s at least done something useful on the issue, but he’s being just a tad hypocritical I think.
[MICK – No, I’ll be putting the greens ahead of labor.]
How much legislation have the Greens legislated in the last 100 years?
rosa @ 77
Careful rosa, you will get the personality cult offside.
Just going through some posts, yep, Boerwar ahead of the Green supporters here are having a blinder like usual.