Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

The latest Essential Research poll is unchanged on last week’s result, except that the Greens are up a point to 10 per cent – Labor is on 35 per cent, the Coalition is on 48 per cent, and two-party preferred is 54-46. Further questions relate to mandatory pre-commitment, with support at 62 per cent (one point higher than when they last asked the question in October) and opposition at 25 per cent (five points lower), and “additional” government assistance to the car industry (58 per cent support, 18 per cent oppose). As they do from time to time, Essential sought to establish whether a popular misconception played a role in the latter issue, in this case that the car industry employs more people than it actually does, but two-thirds of respondents simply said they didn’t know. Also covered: “most important roles of government”, best party to handle issues (Labor leads Liberal only on “providing support to the most disadvantaged”), and the status of manufacturing industry more generally.

UPDATE: We also had from Roy Morgan on Friday their occasional exercise of inquiring about the best leader for both parties, and it has Kevin Rudd’s lead over Julia Gillard widening from 31-24 to 33-19 since early November, and Malcolm Turnbull’s lead over Tony Abbott about stable (from 38-24 to 37-22). As usual, an anyone-but-the-incumbent sentiment from the parties’ opponents was a considerable factor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,496 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. True I heard that remark yesterday someone called it a pokie tax and no one disputed it. They were discussing some proposed work at a local Bowls Club.

  2. [I checked with Morgan. That Poll is Face to Face.]…that’s a shame as I understand these traditionally favour ALP and one should hive off 2%.

  4. Muskiemp,

    I fingered mtbw for it, and I’ll do the same to you!

    Do not regurgitate the Clubs’ propaganda, whether through laziness or malice.

    Not good enough.

  6. Lynchpin – for a while, at the height of the government’s unpopularity, F2F was even worse for the government. They used to say polls inaccurately favouring the left were a “shy Tory” effect (UK expression). For whatever reason in the past slightly less people were willing to say they would vote LNP in person, then that changed. I think its based on what you think your listener’s bias might be.

  7. Thanks for the clarification GG.
    Even though it’s a face-to-face poll, it looks like the Government is getting somewhere.
    Abbott cannot afford polls that regularly have Labor in front.

  8. [sp rocket @sprocket___
    @Pollytics Yep, all the “well heeled Lib voters” are off in the south of France or Aspen, leaving the ALP voters to answer the door bell.

    ]

    this is the accepted wisdom, but I can assure you, the international flights are laden with CUBs and other working class people celebrating the high $A and cheap airfares.

    also, I wonder how many returning from Europe and USA will realise what a well run economy we have here.

    maybe the internal party pollin gis finding a swing back, hence JGs confidence and Abbott’s higher risk stunts.

  10. [@gordongraham: if you understand cultural levels of development, what’s happening at the moment in Canberra is pretty much going to script]

  11. [@latikambourke: Was standing with tv crew and another journalist when a protestor walked past and said ‘animalistic c**nts,’ at us.]

    [@GeorgeBludger: @latikambourke So they got it right then?]

  13. Thanks Leroy. I noticed the change too last year. Maybe there are some “shy ALP” voters out there. Certainly it is fashionable to criticise the Govt and it may be that the “shy Tory” effect no longer holds. I would be interested in WILLIAM’S view on this point.

  18. rummel – Michelle Grattan will, if things turn around for the govt, be one of the absolute last commentators to say Gillard has done anything right to cause it. Even the openly Right Wing writers would give her backhanded credit before Michelle.

  19. rummel@4365

    What a laugh the Age is. Two stories almost polar opposites within a inch of each other.

    You actually think that’s bad?

    These are opinion pieces, not news stories; and having a diversity of opinions is good.

    The media has a problem when news stories are slanted – and all of them slanted in one direction.

  20. rummel #4365, I thought it actually spoke well of the Age to be presenting different points of view? Even if one of them was wildly tendentious. Almost up to blog standards really.

  23. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    @
    @AlboMP Albo, have you sent a box of chockies to Tony Abbott with thanks, love & kisses? – #auspol

  24. [I checked with Morgan. That Poll is Face to Face.]…that’s a shame as I understand these traditionally favour ALP and one should hive off 2%.]

    Strange that the human animal is more prone to telling lies to your face?.

  27. [Strange that the human animal is more prone to telling lies to your face?.]

    Yes. I think it was Leroy who first commented today on the “shy Tory” effect.

  31. Hugh

    It was just that I have a young friend who I think does similar work with the NSW Ambulance. When we bought into this area when we married way back in 1969 she was one of the four kids who lived next door and did so until about the 1990’s.

    She is a delight now probably in her forties. She phoned me in the middle of the year and and asked whether all the kids who once all lived in this street could come to my place to have a reunion lunch.

    Six or seven of them came along with some of their kids. It was a lovely day with lots of stories told and lots of laughter from them all. The very last thing they did before they left was to walk with their kids to the corner shop where they all bought a lolly just like they did back then only this time the lollies were much more expensive.

    Her name is Carolyn!

  39. Vic

    Hidden down the story is this:

    “Ms Shaw denied she was tipped off to Tony Abbott’s whereabouts nearby by a member of the Prime Minister’s office – saying instead it was a “member of the public”.

  40. Lynchpin

    That is why I am pissed off. If anyone is under any illusion of the lies the other side are willing to sprout via their position of power, has rocks in their head

  41. Lynchpin

    They reminded me that I taught them to “jive” and used to give them money to go and buy lollies if they would push the carpet sweeper over the floor.

    You may be very quickly working out just how old I am!

  44. [@GrogsGamut: SMH takes the early lead for “Arsehat story of the year” – “What Julia Gillard’s Shoes Say About Her.”]

    Interestingly, it’s a favourable piece.

  45. Vic, agreed, it is frustrating. But I think the PM doesn’t come out of this too badly. And that Morgan poll has cheered me up!

  48. Abbott is the most protected/ propped up leader of all time IMO.

    We used to complain about media bias towards Howard but nothing- nothing- compared to what they are like towards Abbott. Howard at times would get his share of the tough questions, difficult headlines and negative commentary. Abbott gets virtually nil.

    Has he been properly questioned or criticised for Gambaro’s comments, his own italian cruise ships comments? Has been questioned about the lack of reconciliation of his $600,000 in entitlements in 6 months, or even the accrual of those expenses in the first place?

    Has anyone bothered to point out that the cause of yesterdays incident was him- his deliberately provocative remarks about the tent embassy on Australia day. FFS, I wish we had proper media coverage in this country.

    Morgan has 52/48. What would the polls be with proper MSM scrunity of Abbott?

  49. Andrew, Abbott is a former journo and my guess is he has been cultivating relationships with the journos for years. It’s all very incestuous.

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