Queensland election guide

The Poll Bludger’s seat-by-seat guide to the Queensland election is open for business. I also have an overall review of the situation at Crikey. New election-related points of interest:

• The LNP is looking for a new candidate for the must-win Gold Coast seat of Broadwater after Richard Towson today announced he would stand aside after blowing 0.07 during a random breath test on Friday night. The seat is held by Labor’s Peta-Kaye Croft on a margin of 2.0 per cent.

• Labor’s candidate to succeed retiring Neil Roberts in the inner northern Brisbane seat of Nudgee, held on a margin of 14.3 per cent, Leanne Linard, a ministerial adviser to Roberts who has previously worked for Anna Bligh and Andrew Fraser. A local resident and colleague of Roberts in the Labor Unity faction, Linard won preselection without opposition after Roberts announced his retirement early last month.

• Julie Attwood, who holds Mount Ommaney for Labor on a margin of 4.8 per cent, today announced she would bow out at the coming election, citing personal reasons.

• ReachTel has published yet another automated phone poll for the match of the round in Ashgrove, which shows little change on the early December poll with Campbell Newman leading Kate Jones about 53-47 if you preference flows from the 2009 election are applied (ReachTel’s respondent allocation “if you were forced to make a choice between the following two candidates who would you choose” question seems especially dubious to me given that it overlooks optional preferential voting). Apart from unrealistically low levels of support for the Greens (around 7 per cent compared with 12.4 per cent in 2009), ReachTel’s results have looked plausible in Ashgrove, but outlandish in many of the other seats it has targeted.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

131 comments on “Queensland election guide”

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  1. There was a nice old fashioned Liberal National bunfight in the Broadwater candidate selection process and guess who won? Showpony Newman or the National Party powerbrokers?

    Mr Caldwell, who specialises in defending drink-drivers, replaces disgraced LNP candidate Richard Towson, who resigned after being charged with drink-driving last week.

    Mr Towson, who famously fainted in a local park during a news conference last year, was charged after blowing .07 at a random breath test at Runaway Bay.

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/lnp-not-a-boys-club-says-campbell-newman-after-broadwater-preselection/story-fnbt5t29-1226248689082

  9. One of the better quality pieces of work from the opposition this term:

    [Seqwater said all south-east dams were receiving heavy inflows from surrounding catchments after heavy rainfalls across the region.

    The water body’s decision to open the flood gates at the officially 100 per cent full Wivenhoe came under fire from the state opposition.

    Opposition spokesman Jeff Seeney told parliament the dam was not completely full.

    “Is not this release of water from Wivenhoe Dam, when it is holding only 40 per cent its available storage capacity, a clear indication that the government has learnt nothing from the water crisis,” Mr Seeney said.

    But Natural Resources Minister Stephen Robertson said the extra capacity was needed to prevent a repeat of the 1974 floods.

    “What Mr Seeney on behalf of the LNP suggests is that Wivenhoe Dam should not be used for flood mitigation purposes,” Mr Robertson said.

    “As a result, that puts into jeopardy the very safety of people in Brisbane and surrounding areas.”]

    http://www.qt.com.au/story/2010/10/12/dams-stay-open-until-rain-stops/

  11. The financial genius of the fork tongued candidate for Ashgrove. His job plan for the state has been a good example of why the LNP is unfit fot Opposition let alone Government.

    [CAMPBELL Newman has distanced himself from his own jobs promise only two days after trumpeting the plan to business leaders.

    The LNP leader yesterday said he “probably should not have mentioned” a 420,000 new jobs target while announcing his plan to reduce Queensland’s unemployment rate to 4 per cent within six years.

    The about-face is a blow to Mr Newman’s credibility and has fuelled fears within the party about how he will manage on the campaign trail.

    Mr Newman’s decision to walk away from part of his promise came as he signed a giant mobile billboard promising to keep his other promises.

    Premier Anna Bligh promptly labelled the LNP a shambles but Mr Newman insisted he would not run away from the 4 per cent target.

    “Perhaps we shouldn’t have even mentioned (the 420,000) figure in the speech but we tried to give you a feel for how many jobs of all types would have to be created,” he said.]

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/newman-breaks-election-jobs-pledge/story-fnbt5t29-1226248906552

  13. Don’t forget to keep an eye on the LNP candidate for cairns who seems to have adopted the role of making crocodiles look civilised.

    KingGavSays Fake Gavin King
    by FakeJeffSeeney
    @
    @FakeJeffSeeney @Can_do_Campbell @PetaKayeCroftMP Sheilas on the Gold Coast should stick to what they are good at- reading parking meters.
    12 hours ago

  14. http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/newman-breaks-election-jobs-pledge/story-fnbt5t29-1226248906552

    [Campbell Newman breaks election jobs pledge
    by: Koren Helbig From: The Courier-Mail January 20, 2012 12:00AM

    CAMPBELL Newman has distanced himself from his own jobs promise only two days after trumpeting the plan to business leaders.

    The LNP leader yesterday said he “probably should not have mentioned” a 420,000 new jobs target while announcing his plan to reduce Queensland’s unemployment rate to 4 per cent within six years.

    The about-face is a blow to Mr Newman’s credibility and has fuelled fears within the party about how he will manage on the campaign trail.

    Mr Newman’s decision to walk away from part of his promise came as he signed a giant mobile billboard promising to keep his other promises.]
    more in the article

  15. http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/lnp-not-worried-about-my-campaign-newman-20120120-1q96m.html

    [LNP not worried about my campaign: Newman
    January 20, 2012 – 9:30AM

    Campbell Newman has denied his party is anxious about his performance on the campaign trail after slipping up while making a major jobs pledge.

    The Liberal National Party leader has hosed down reports there’s concern in his own party about how he’ll conduct himself when the state poll is called.]
    More in this AAP report

  17. Queen of Gobbledegook carefully expains what she dislikes about Labor spin and why we should vote for her spin.

    [We hear nothing but spin from Labor when it comes to tourism.

    “Only the LNP is committed to growing a four-pillar economy, of which tourism is a key industry, and the only way to reinvigorate tourism is to change the government.”

    Ms Stuckey said that after 20 years, the best that Labor could do was put out another ‘discussion paper’.

    “Tourism is doing it tough and it needs answers and action, not more navel gazing.”

    Ms Stuckey said the LNP would be releasing its practical tourism strategy very soon.

    “Over-regulation and high costs have scared off new investment in Queensland, so we’ll be focussing on fully-costed, commonsense policies to help tourism get back on track.

    “The LNP will grow a four-pillar economy,” she said.]
    http://lnp.org.au/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=902:change-government-to-get-tourism-back-on-track&tmpl=component&print=1

  18. But apparently Newman is not going to bother telling us any detail about who is likely to be Tourism Minister should he win Ashgrove.

    [When asked at a industry luncehon whether Ms Stuckey would retain her position, Mr Newman dodged the question.

    “I can’t give the tourism minister’s name, sorry Jann,” he said.

    Ms Stuckey said she was not surprised at Mr Newman’s comment because he was not making any statements about ministerial appointments.

    “If we win government, of course I would like to be considered, but it is up to Campbell,” she said.

    “I am doing the best I can to make sure I am doing the job well.”]

    http://www.goldcoast.com.au/article/2011/11/24/368321_gold-coast-news.html

  19. This week a vicious attack was launched on Tourism Queensland in Port Douglas.

    [Ms Stuckey then addressed around 15 guests at an informal meeting at Sea Temple Resort and Spa to spruik the merits of the LNP’s Tourism Strategy document, while using the opportunity to take aim at the State’s government funded tourism body, Tourism Queensland, saying they lacked accountability.

    “I’m appalled at the lack of collection of data…they don’t want to be able to produce those figures,” Ms Stuckey said. “That’s across the Government whichever department you look at you’ll find that they just don’t measure.

    “If you look in the (TQ) annual report you’ll see a stark lack of reporting on certain campaigns.

    “They’ll talk about the ones that were really good like ‘The Best Job in the World’ and they will value it on about how many hits they got on the website, whereas I would convert that as overnight expenditure, how many nights or seats did we actually get? That’s the way I’d measure it, but that’s not done.

    “This Vitamin Me (a $4m campaign encouraging workers to use their annual leave in Queensland) stuff, The Pledge (encouraging operators to increase service levels), the Pledge was a disgrace.

    “It was ridiculous and it was blackmail for people (tourism operators) to go on the road that took them interstate and brought them no dollar value.”

    Ms Stuckey hinted that a new partnership with TQ, Regional and Local Tourism Organisations would be formed should the LNP take government with a focus on greater accountability for the State body.]

    http://www.tourismportdouglas.com.au/Stuckey-appalled-at-TQ-NEWSPORT.7015.0.html

  20. Five days prior to the Stuckey Port Douglas tantrum we had this story in the Townsville Bulletin:

    [NORTH Queensland tourism operators are on the road to recovery almost a year after Cyclone Yasi ripped through the region.

    The latest Australian Bureau of Statistics results show Queensland recorded $592.3 million in accommodation takings for the September quarter, the second highest in the country.

    The Sunshine State also boasted the longest average length of stay for the September quarter for accommodation providers nationwide at 2.7 days.

    Minister for Tourism, Manufacturing and Small Business Jan Jarratt said the figures were due to the hard work of operators across the state.

    “It’s true that our iconic sunshine has returned and our economy is surging, but it has taken an enormous amount of hard work and a concerted marketing effort to see our tourism industry recovering in the way it is,” she said.

    “Tourism operators have been relentless in their determination to see us back to the top spot and the Bligh Government has been with them every step of the way.”

    Townsville Enterprise tourism and marketing general manager Patricia O’Callaghan said the figures were a sign of a successful year ahead.

    “There is no doubt that the fantastic weather we are enjoying at the moment has allowed more tourists to get out and experience what we have on offer in the Townsville region,” she said.]

    http://www.townsvillebulletin.com.au/article/2012/01/12/297091_news.html

  21. Katter and the Queensland Greens have ruled out any formal preference swap.

    [The Greens and Katter’s Australian Party are united in their opposition to coal seam gas mining, but the strange bedfellows have ruled out a preference deal at the Queensland election.

    Both parties oppose the state’s current CSG laws and have pushed the issue to the centre of the election.

    The national leaders of both parties, Senator Bob Brown and Bob Katter, appeared in the public gallery at a Dalby court together to support Lock the Gate Alliance president Drew Hutton, who was arrested at an anti-CSG protest last March.

    Mr Hutton, a former Greens candidate, said the two parties should help each other.]

    http://news.ninemsn.com.au/national/8406337/katter-party-rules-out-deal-with-greens

  22. Another victim of LNP infighting now being targetted by NO Notion.

    [THE One Nation party is set to mount a charge for a number of North Queensland seats ahead of the State Election this year.

    One Nation Queensland state director Ian Nelson said the party was set to target the region’s most vulnerable seats, including those held by narrow margins.

    Mr Nelson singled out Dalrymple MP Shane Knuth, who recently switched from the Liberal National Party to Katter’s Australian Party.

    He narrowly edged out One Nation’s Rosa Lee Long in a two-horse race for the seat back in 2009.

    One Nation is set to officially name the first of its candidates at a press conference in Brisbane today, while candidates for Dalrymple and Mundingburra are expected to be announced within a month.]

    http://www.townsvillebulletin.com.au/article/2012/01/12/297111_news.html

  23. A lazy, tired opposition still can’t be bothered getting a Health Policy together. Not fit to govern obviously.

    [THE LNP has slammed Queensland Health but refused to offer any policies of its own during opposition spokesman Mark McArdle’s visit to Bundaberg yesterday.

    Mr McArdle condemned the Labor Government for allowing some patients to wait up to 12 hours before being transferred from Bundaberg Hospital’s emergency department to a bed in the hospital, according to September 2011 figures.

    But he failed to say what an LNP Government would do about the same issue.

    “That is going to be the subject of the policy announcement before the election,” he said.

    Mr McArdle said the party’s health policy would be announced some time before the election, but he could not give a date.

    The LNP health spokesman said he had been on a tour of regional hospitals to determine what issues were important and would need to be considered when shaping a health policy.]

    http://www.news-mail.com.au/story/2012/01/19/no-health-policies-lnp/

  25. Courier Mail still scouring the calendar to find reasons why Bligh should go to a pre council election poll as desired by the LNP cheersquad. The whole crazy push for an early election seems to be a Courier Mail exclusive. It is hard to see why a June 16 election would be more difficult for Labor than a February 16 election. The excuses so far offered by the Courier Mail, the LNP or anybody else have been light weight and unconvincing. They should all take a bex and have a nice lie down to think it over.

    FEBRUARY is as good a month as any for Premier Anna Bligh to go to the polls at least in terms of good-news media opportunities and the relative absence of landmines.

    Next Monday’s Cabinet meeting, the first for the year, offers a perfect opportunity to kick off a short, sharp election campaign for either February 18 or 25.

    Ms Bligh has promised the meeting will consider a plan to break up Queensland Health to create “a new beginning for health services” in the state exactly the sort of initiative to sustain a campaign.]

    Queensland Labor could do much better than take advice from the LNP media arm.

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/premier-anna-bligh-in-poll-position/story-fnbt5t29-1226249809651

  26. Newman wanting more time to work out what to do with the Bruce Highway. As usual he is short on detail.

    [Mr Wallace said the report again highlighted the importance of a comprehensive plan.

    “The Bruce Highway is a Federally-funded road but only Labor had a plan to take to the Australian Government to get the funds we need,” Mr Wallace said.

    “Our plan released last month sets out our ultimate vision for a four-lane Bruce Highway from Gympie to Cairns and how we’re going to achieve it.

    “It identifies 110 priority projects including 340 kilometres of highway duplication, 50 new overtaking lanes, intersection upgrades, bridge replacements and 10 proposed ring roads, bypasses and deviations.

    “$2.3 billion has been spent on the Bruce Highway over the past five years but more needs to be done, that’s why we’ve developed this comprehensive plan.

    “There are currently more than 30 major projects underway on the Bruce Highway including the Townsville Douglas Arterial Duplication, Mackay southern access upgrade, Cooroy to Curra Section B upgrade and Cardwell Range realignment.

    “The Bligh Government is constantly knocking on the Federal Government’s door asking for more money and we’ve successfully achieved the bringing forward of Commonwealth funding for a number of projects.

    “(Campbell) Newman had said he won’t have a plan for the Bruce Highway until at least six months after the
    election, meaning progress being made on the Bruce would grind to a halt.”]

    http://www.themorningbulletin.com.au/story/2012/01/19/cooroy-curra-death-list-again/

  27. Mark Bahnisch election analysis:

    [So, in a way, if it aims to minimise its defeat and does so intelligently, the ALP is most rational in throwing an enormous effort into Ashgrove. Ignore the increasingly ubiquitous robo-polls. If there’s a credible Galaxy or Newspoll during the campaign showing that Campbell Newman is in real doubt in Ashgrove, then the entire election dynamic shifts.

    If, for example, he is in the low 40s and Jones approaching 40, it could be reasonably assumed that given the effects of Optional Preferential Voting and the huge field of candidates (with One Nation being the latest hat thrown into the ring), Jones would be favoured to have a good chance of re-election.

    That event would then give flesh to claims that Newman is a stalking horse for Parliamentary Leader Jeff Seeney, or indeed former leader Lawrence Springborg or the ambitious Shadow Treasurer Tim Nicholls. If this were to transpire, then the sole issue of the campaign, particularly when the LNP is running a small target strategy, would be its leadership.

    And the ALP has improved its vote markedly when LNP disunity has come to dominate campaigns in the past.

    The LNP should be worried – now – that there’s talk around of Newman having a fallback strategy of forcing a by-election somewhere if his party wins, but he loses.]

    http://larvatusprodeo.net/2012/01/16/queensland-state-election-2012-a-tale-of-two-campaigns/

  34. http://www.smh.com.au/national/newman-kept-waiting-20120121-1qbnk.html

    [Newman kept waiting
    Analysis Tracey Ferrier
    January 22, 2012

    CAMPBELL NEWMAN says a quiet fury is building in Queensland as Labor Premier Anna Bligh mulls over an election date.

    The Liberal National Party leader, who insists he is the underdog despite what the polls show, says Queenslanders are champing at the bit to cast their judgment on Labor. But the Premier is content to keep Newman, and the state, waiting.

    Bligh has ruled out calling a poll before tomorrow, when she will hold her first cabinet meeting of the year, which could be the last before the election. ”The government is still governing,” Bligh said on Thursday, refusing to provide any hints on when she might go to the governor.]
    more in the article

  35. Redcliffe Mayor on successful council amalgamations:

    [“The area has great potential and we have been working together with both tiers of government,” he says. “The ALP touts me as a Tory and the Liberals have accused me of being pro-Labor. I try to be independent.”

    With Prime Minister Julia Gillard and Premier Anna Bligh, he stitched together the $1.1 billion rail link he says will transform the region.

    He admits he has to battle for every dollar and is jealous of the funding that goes to Ipswich.

    “Every time Ipswich sneezes they get their noses wiped,” he says. “(Mayor) Paul Pisasale only has to stick out his hand and he gets more money.”

    Although Sutherland opposed the amalgamation, he says there is no going back. And he admits the financial muscle of the combined councils has enabled Moreton to drive projects such as the $25 million art gallery and library at Caboolture, an enterprise that stalled under the previous administration.

    The gallery walls are dripping with wonderful pictures by Charles Blackman, Ian Fairweather, Fred Williams and Lawrie Daws.

    The library is the third biggest in the state and has spaces reserved for pensioners as well as children. The architecturally splendid building known as The Hub is not only for the arts and books but business. There are conference rooms and media labs and spaces for creative industries.

    The $17 million state equestrian centre near the showgrounds is equally impressive. It’s an Olympic-standard facility with four all-weather sand dressage arenas, 150 stables and a camping ground.

    The main stadium seats 3200 under cover and is one of the largest of its kind in Australia. It’s been an instant hit with the city’s horsey set.

    Sutherland says the people of Brisbane used to look down their noses at the folk from Caboolture and Redcliffe, just as Sydneysiders looked down their noses at Queenslanders.

    “But change is in the wind,” he says. “We are creating opportunities.”

    He lists one of his biggest achievements as getting rid of 300 “fat cats” – managers who found themselves with not enough to do after amalgamation.

    “With a unified council we have managed to save $105 million – audited – over four years,” he says proudly.]

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/ipad/region-rises-from-deadcliffe-depths/story-fn6ck620-1226249757289?sv=c97b38cd722398fe47ff6c09d4fd0916

  38. There was a beautiful backflip here by Shadow Treasurer Timmy Nichols which all LNP watches applauded and gave scores of ten out of ten.

    [HOUSEHOLDS will not get the $120-a-year electricity bill reprieve promised by the LNP after the party quietly adjusted its power policy after it was released.

    The LNP had committed to capping the common household power tariff, if elected, saving consumers about $120 in 2012-13.

    However, the policy has had a proviso added on page 34 of the latest edition which states that the cap would be in place only until “replaced with an acceptable cost-reflective system”. Such a system is being developed by the Queensland Competition Authority and is due to be introduced from July 1 next year.

    This means the new power pricing system would be introduced at the same time the LNP has promised a cap would come into place.

    The revelation is a blow to the LNP’s claims that it would tackle cost-of-living issues, if elected. It wipes more than a third off the $330-a-year figure LNP leader Campbell Newman has repeatedly claimed he would save Queensland households.

    Opposition Treasury spokesman Tim Nicholls yesterday conceded the pricing system ordered from the QCA by the Bligh Government might offer households more than the LNP’s price cap.

    “There may well be greater savings than the $120,” he said.]

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/ipad/plug-pulled-on-capping-power-play/story-fn6ck51p-1226209642323?sv=8e63b8346fa9d0558022ad30602aba96

  40. Dangerman_2 Col Smith
    by Can_do_Campbell
    @
    @Can_do_Campbell @lukemyers @TimNichollsMP already backed down on the $330 figure as a lie. Whoops! that ad will have to be pulled. #qldpol
    9 minutes ago

  41. Wow – usually the Queensland conservatives wait for the election writs to be issued before imploding. I suspect this is Tim Nicholls staking his claim on the leadership should Ashgrove choose not to elect Campbell or perhaps even if they do. Santoro faction anyone?

  42. God knows what this means:

    Steven Wardill
    @stevenwardill Steven Wardill
    LNP power policy will be either cap or cost reflective tariffs now being developed. Whatever saves households more. #qldvotes
    2 hours ago via Twitter for BlackBerry®

  43. Not a good day for Courier Mail Journos a second one has become incomprehensible.
    DesHoughton DesHoughton
    @
    @Can_do_Campbell Squirm baby, squirm. Day of reckoning approaches #qldvotes
    46 minutes ago

  44. No election called yet but unfortunately I had to sit through a labor attack ad directed at Campbell Newman last week. Absolutely amazed that labor would think to attack Newman on his record of management of Brisbane council. Hello Anna and Andrew. When was the last time the queensland budget was in surplus? Does anyone really believe that this government could ever bring a surplus let alone start paying off debt? These people have no shame. They won the last election on a lie about the budget position and then set about privatizing state assets and abolishing the fuel levy just a few weeks after the last election date. And for what? Do they take us for mugs?. The state is too indebted. Once again poor planning and lack of foresight sees the rail network desperately needing the cross river rail tunnel to be built to allow for growth in demand But this government could never fund it. Why wasn’t the funding put aside for it over the past decade? We could go through countless issues but I don’t want to bore everyone. I want the election now to get rid of these incompetents I don’t know anyone that is waiting for the election campaign to decide who to vote for. If Anna wants to wait to make changes to qhealth no one trusts her or her plans. Just call the election. Please.

  47. Queensland Country Life on CSG

    [A LANDHOLDER at a meeting with Arrow Energy last weekend expressed the strong frustration of fellow Scenic Rim property owners who are blockading a coal seam gas (CSG) exploration site.

    Kerry-based mixed farmer Michael Undery said he was conservative and did not usually take part in public protests.

    As he found himself in the blockade facing Arrow, Mr Undery said he did not wish to speak a word until he had heard from the company. He listened carefully as Arrow presented its case.

    The company said it was conducting low-level, short-duration CSG exploration in the Beaudesert-Boonah region, which consisted of drilling two exploration wells and routine rehabilitation work on pre-existing exploration wells, with activities expected to be completed next month.

    Arrow said the exploration wells were designed to obtain information about the area’s geology and were not used for CSG production or to produce water to surface. The company said the process took less than a fortnight to drill, evaluate and remediate.

    Arrow has a land access agreement with the owner of the property being blockaded.]

    http://qcl.farmonline.com.au/news/state/agribusiness-and-general/general/scenic-rim-csg-stalemate/2425333.aspx?storypage=0

  48. The quote of the week from Campbell Newman:

    [“Look, sometimes at moments like this you have to sort of blink and think was the other Campbell Newman giving the speech the other day,”]

  50. One yet to be explained.

    [CAMPBELL Newman has refused to release the list of corporate donors who paid up to $10,000 each to influence LNP policy at its conference at the weekend.

    The party, in the box seat to win the next state election, held its annual state council meeting at the Marriott Hotel in Surfers Paradise.

    While the meeting is supposed to be for internal party business, the LNP turned the occasion into a money-spinning exercise.

    Business leaders looking to gain positive policies from the LNP paid between $3750 and $10,000 to gain access to the party leader and his MPs.

    The LNP has continued to pursue so-called “pay-per-view” access to MPs, despite Premier Anna Bligh banning Labor from engaging in the ethically-questionable practice.

    A basic package to the LNP’s “corporate observers” program offered access to Friday’s policy lunch forum, featuring Mr Newman and a discussion dinner with all MPs.]

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/campbell-newman-refuses-to-release-list-of-corporate-donors-who-paid-up-to-10000-each-at-lnp-conference/story-e6freoof-1226180890640

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