Morgan face-to-face: 54-46 to Coalition

The all-too-brief New Year polling respite has come to an end with the first Morgan face-to-face poll of the year, covering a sample of 934 from the regular weekend survey. It records only minor shifts on the last poll of last year, which combined the results of the weekends of December 10/11 and 17/18: Labor up half a point to 37 per cent, the Coalition up two to 45 per cent and the Greens down 2.5 per cent to 10.5 per cent. Where Labor achieved parity on the previous-election preference method in the last poll, this time the Coalition leads 51.5-48.5. When respondents were asked how they would direct their preferences, the Coalition’s lead was 54-46, up from 53.5-46.5. As always with Morgan over the past year, this result is strangely favourable to the Coalition. One should further query the utility of any poll conducted at this time of year – my intuition is that the absence of holiday-makers from their homes would bias such a poll towards Labor, although I don’t have any actual data to back that up.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,160 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. I’m sure I saw somewhere that the ABC are making a 2nd series of AT HOME WITH JULIA.
    I found it very unfunny, and Tim Mathison wouldn’t be that pathetic in real life.

  2. Gigi

    Publicity aka the Women’s weekly and any docos are very tricky. You need to strike just the right balance between being within and too modern, being concerned not weepy, being strong but not a bully, being domestic but not thick,being tidy but not clinical. Timing is critical too.

    IMHO the Gillard Women’s weekly shots did NOT hit the spot – wrong timing, wrong image for a PM. Especially after the way she came to power Gillard needed to look strong, resourceful, no one’s puppet and very very clever. The Women’s weekly shots did NOT do this.

    Now I am no expert but I think a newly minted opposition leader who is a women or family man with interesting well behaved kids and a powerful wife could do women’s weekly and Australian story profiles and come out ahead but they need to be treated with great caution. They are often a disaster (eg Cheryl Kernot and the red boa).

    However once you ARE PM leave well alone (until your third term or so when you can use it as “history.” That is why the WW of Gillard fell flat and she had to do the “real Julia” stuff

  3. 2151

    AT HOME WITH JULIA was an insult to our intelligence and our artistic taste. NEVER to be repeated or followed up – an ABC disgrace!

  4. The ABC was planning on a 2012 series titled “At home with Kevin” starring Norman Gunston but had to cancel plans when the PM managed to survive 2011.

  5. [with out the internet our forebears, where certainly in the dark just relying. on papers]

    Actually the internet got started a lot earlier than you might think my say.

    Read on


    In ancient Israel , it came to pass that a trader by the name of Abraham Com did take unto himself a young wife by the name of Dot. And Dot Com was a comely woman, broad of shoulder and long of leg. Indeed, she was often called Amazon Dot Com.
    And she said unto Abraham, her husband, “Why dost thou travel so far from town to town with thy goods when thou canst trade without ever leaving thy tent?
    And Abraham did look at her as though she were several saddle bags short of a camel load, but simply said, “How, dear?”

    And Dot replied, “I will place drums in all the towns and drums in between to send messages saying what you have for sale, and they will reply telling you who hath the best price. And the sale can be made on the drums and delivery made by Uriah’s Pony Stable (UPS).”

    Abraham thought long and decided he would let Dot have her way with the drums. And the drums rang out and were an immediate success. Abraham sold all the goods he had at the top price, without ever having to move from his tent. To prevent neighboring countries from overhearing what the drums were saying, Dot devised a system that only she and the drummers knew. It was known as Must Send Drum Over Sound (MSDOS), and she also developed a language to transmit ideas and pictures – Hebrew To The People (HTTP).

    And the young men did take to Dot Com’s trading as doth the greedy horsefly take to camel dung. They were called Nomadic Ecclesiastical Rich Dominican Sybarites, or NERDS.

    And lo, the land was so feverish with joy at the new riches and the deafening sound of drums that no one noticed that the real riches were going to that enterprising drum dealer, Brother William of Gates, who bought off every drum maker in the land. And indeed did insist on drums to be made that would work only with Brother Gates’ drumheads and drumsticks.

    And Dot did say, “Oh, Abraham, what we have started is being taken over by others.” And Abraham looked out over the Bay of Ezekiel , or eBay as it came to be known. He said, “We need a name that reflects what we are. And Dot replied, “Young Ambitious Hebrew Owner Operators.” “YAHOO,” said Abraham. And because it was Dot’s idea, they named it YAHOO Dot Com.

    Abraham’s cousin, Joshua, being the young Gregarious Energetic Educated Kid (GEEK) that he was, soon started using Dot’s drums to locate things around the countryside. It soon became known as God’s Own Official Guide to Locating Everything (GOOGLE).
    That is how it all began. And that’s the truth

  6. The Finnigans
    Posted Monday, January 16, 2012 at 12:45 pm | Permalink

    Preloaded on the Transformer Prime is Polaris® Office® 3.0

    Is this a full functioning copy & what browser you use on this? thanks

    Finns – Polaris certainly appears to be a fully functional copy – I’ve only had the *TP* (not our Thomas ) a day and a half. I also saw and downloaded a free app yesterday called “Documents to Go” which reads and allows access to Word, Excel & Power Point files and attachments. It will also open PDF docs and can be upgraded for a small cost to then sync files with your PC.

    At present am using the stock ASUS browser but have read that the one produced by your mates, the *Dolphin* browser is the way to go so I will download that soon.

    Am currently doing research on what other apps are out there and looking through reviews etc on them.

  7. [2027


    Posted Monday, January 16, 2012 at 7:57 am | Permalink


    Oh dear fellow bludger Frank Calabrese wont be happy

    3/4 Beatup.

    Tunley has ruled himself out

    Eric will survive.

  8. The only conclusion one can draw from the pokies decision by PM Gillard is that backbenchers had threatened to cross the floor.

    The CPRS bills were presented twice even though it appeared they would not pass, so the PM’s current excuse sounds a bit lame.

    Labor should have learnt from the Rudd debacle on the CPRS that walking away from something you seem principled about can be highly damaging.

    (Spare me the blah blah blah about the pre commitment trial)

    Either PM Gillard has very poor political judgement or this move was to save her own position

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